Winter 2024/2025 February Thread

[*Flash*]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

This EPS run may be as good as any we see for this system. Add an inch for ratio's north of 40 especially.

 

I'm rooting for this, not only because it's a great forum-wide look but because our NC friends can have a nice score as well!

[fountainguy97]

Thread started for next week!

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS has a Miller A on Feb 24th.  I tend to watch the happy hour run for new trends.  Something to watch .

[Carvers Gap]

Don't sleep on Sunday.  The 12z GFS has snow for higher elevations.  Other models don't have it yet, but February precip patterns would allow for a marginal event.

And can we get some of this please....a loop in 8?  That is the BEST case scenario.  I think this thing moves through colder phases and is into warmer phases by the 10th.  But if the below is true....winter is gonna hang on for a bit.

 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Don't sleep on Sunday.  The 12z GFS has snow for higher elevations.  Other models don't have it yet, but February precip patterns would allow for a marginal event.

And can we get some of this please....a loop in 8?  That is the BEST case scenario.  I think this thing moves through colder phases and is into warmer phases by the 10th.  But if the below is true....winter is gonna hang on for a bit.

 

If that were to happen and somehow HLB reasserted or manifested, man, could be a cold/snowy early March.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Nice fantasy storm on the 12 GFS around hr 300. 

It's even got the '24-'25 winter Baja lowTM trying to interact with the N. stream. surely nothing will change in 300 hours? 

[Carvers Gap]

Nice little 12z suite today.

[Carvers Gap]

Anyone want to take about today's MJO plots(plural).

[Jed33]

I’m definitely not the most knowledgeable, but I look at them every morning around 7:30 on the CPC website. It definitely is encouraging to see them meander in phase 8 and 1 as well as 2. Most ultimately go into the circle today, but 1 or 2 including the JMA stay out of it and squarely in phase 1,2,and 3. The BOMM I feel like, at least this winter is always playing catch up to the ECMWF and GFS/GEFS. If you just look at Mjo plots, you’d think winter wants to hang around well into March this year! Would be great by me!

[Carvers Gap]

That 18z GFS is straight load up.  That looks like an MJO that is stalled in the cold phases.  That looked a lot like 14-15...just a shade warmer maybe.  Modeling is seeing the MJO now.  Some modeling was completely blind to it during December.  Then, it flipped overnight.  Now, we see a repeat.  

[Carvers Gap]

This gets my attention.

 

[Carvers Gap]

Really nice pattern projected by both the MJO, ensembles, and some deterministic runs.   The MJO looks like it may stall in the cold phases - that is becoming more likely but not certain.  Ensembles keep the trough over the eastern US for the foreseeable future (maybe through March 10th or so).  The pattern is active with a lot of northern stream vortices in play.  It is late season, so like today, we need things to be a little more Goldilocks - just right.  However, I think NE TN, which has had less snow than many, may well cash in on a few more events.  Again, modeling is finally seeing the MJO influence.

[Carvers Gap]

Just digging back through overnight runs, the 0z GFS was pretty epic.  I like the GFS about this time of year as it handles the dynamic of an approaching new season better.  Short version, it is better during shoulder season.  The GFS is loaded, even during bad runs....lots of incoming systems and cold.  I do think we see some warmups, but tons to track at this moment.  This looks like a pattern where higher elevations get hammered and lower elevations of NE TN, SE KY, and SW VA get some surprises.

[Carvers Gap]

I know it is a bit out there, but I really like the timeframe just before March 10th.  Ensembles have very cold temps incoming again around March 7th.  The EPS has temps 10 degrees below normal.  The GEPS and GEFS are 3-4 degrees colder than that.  That is prime climatology for an early spring winter storm to boot.  Looks like maybe warmup next week between say Tuesday and Thursday before temps go back to being BN.  This is kind of a back and forth pattern being portrayed which is more cold than warm.  It is pretty crazy that we set 1-2 record highs to start the month, and it is snowing today after severe weather and flooding.  That is not as uncommon as one would think.  IMHO, the pattern until it says otherwise is intrusions of warm air masses into a colder pattern.  At some point spring will appear, but winter may hang on for a bit into early spring.

[Wurbus]

Way out there, but 12z GFS has snow along the gulf coast in early March. That would be impressive! Adding to an already historic winter there.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12 GFS is again loaded up.   

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I know it is a bit out there, but I really like the timeframe just before March 10th.  Ensembles have very cold temps incoming again around March 7th.  The EPS has temps 10 degrees below normal.  The GEPS and GEFS are 3-4 degrees colder than that.  That is prime climatology for an early spring winter storm to boot.  Looks like maybe warmup next week between say Tuesday and Thursday before temps go back to being BN.  This is kind of a back and forth pattern being portrayed which is more cold than warm.  It is pretty crazy that we set 1-2 record highs to start the month, and it is snowing today after severe weather and flooding.  That is not as uncommon as one would think.  IMHO, the pattern until it says otherwise is intrusions of warm air masses into a colder pattern.  At some point spring will appear, but winter may hang on for a bit into early spring.

We still have a shot at a Major Snowstorm. March is our month for Big Dog's. 

[Carvers Gap]

It appears that the Euro Weeklies Control wants no part of spring.  It is frigid, like ridiculously so for like five weeks.  Apparently, it has drunk the MJO juice.  It has been doing this for a few days.  It delays spring until early April.  Its 32d temp composite is ten degrees below normal for much of the forum area.  

[Carvers Gap]

I browsed through overnight and early morning model runs.  It certainly looks like we are about to enter a northern stream dominant pattern.  What I am seeing is rain changing to snow w/ a lot of these.  Higher elevation areas may just get hammered for the next 2-4 weeks.  Whatever the foothills have missed this winter, they may get repaid in full during the coming weeks.  Lots of northwest flow vortices.

[Carvers Gap]

Next system to watch looks like next Thursday into Friday.

[John1122]

Hopefully we get one more good event for the region before winter ends. The GFS has been back and forth between a widespread event and the mountains getting it. 

It's a rare winter that we get a second shot after such an epic warm up, but usually the rare times the cold returns in late February or early March we tend to score to some extent. 

Nothing big for mby this winter (6+ inch even imo) but some nickels, dimes and quarters has me at 16 inches on the season. Not great for the level of cold and duration we had compared to past winters with so much cold, but way better than those wall to wall warm winters where we get lucky to get a couple of 2 inchers. All in all, winters in the 2020s have been decent so far with only one real stinker in the first half of the decade. 

[Matthew70]

57 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Hopefully we get one more good event for the region before winter ends. The GFS has been back and forth between a widespread event and the mountains getting it. 

It's a rare winter that we get a second shot after such an epic warm up, but usually the rare times the cold returns in late February or early March we tend to score to some extent. 

Nothing big for mby this winter (6+ inch even imo) but some nickels, dimes and quarters has me at 16 inches on the season. Not great for the level of cold and duration we had compared to past winters with so much cold, but way better than those wall to wall warm winters where we get lucky to get a couple of 2 inchers. All in all, winters in the 2020s have been decent so far with only one real stinker in the first half of the decade. 

If I remember correctly?  Carver predicted nickel & dime snow events.  Said it would be rare to get a big one. 

[Daniel Boone]

53 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Hopefully we get one more good event for the region before winter ends. The GFS has been back and forth between a widespread event and the mountains getting it. 

It's a rare winter that we get a second shot after such an epic warm up, but usually the rare times the cold returns in late February or early March we tend to score to some extent. 

Nothing big for mby this winter (6+ inch even imo) but some nickels, dimes and quarters has me at 16 inches on the season. Not great for the level of cold and duration we had compared to past winters with so much cold, but way better than those wall to wall warm winters where we get lucky to get a couple of 2 inchers. All in all, winters in the 2020s have been decent so far with only one real stinker in the first half of the decade. 

At 19.7" for the Season here now. Usually you get more there but a couple further east systems worked out for here. Blunder is close to 30 inches now in Lebanon in Russell County.

[John1122]

56 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

At 19.7" for the Season here now. Usually you get more there but a couple further east systems worked out for here. Blunder is close to 30 inches now in Lebanon in Russell County.

We still got some ways to go, but normally with the blocking we've had and temperature departures I'd end winter between 30 and 40 inches. 

We've rarely had such favorable blocking for as long as we did in January. Normally that 8-10 inch Gulf storm would have been a 12-18 inch storm here. 

[BuCoVaWx]

If my records are correct for MBY, I'm sitting at 24" in Keen Mountain, Buchanan county. That's the most I've had in quite awhile. Then again I have to trust what my girls are measuring lol!! It's definitely one of the better winters here in some time.

[Daniel Boone]

9 hours ago, John1122 said:

We still got some ways to go, but normally with the blocking we've had and temperature departures I'd end winter between 30 and 40 inches. 

We've rarely had such favorable blocking for as long as we did in January. Normally that 8-10 inch Gulf storm would have been a 12-18 inch storm here. 

I agree completely man. Should of been a banner snow season. 

[matt9697]

21 hours ago, Daniel Boone said:

I agree completely man. Should of been a banner snow season. 

Although I wanted at least one significant snowfall in my backyard, I am not complaining. For the fourth year in the 2020s, we have had measurable snow, a far cry from the 2010s, when we would go multiple consecutive seasons without snow of any amount. Hopefully, the trend will continue for the next few years! I am ready for Spring; I have alot of things that need to be moved around regarding landscaping and would like to get started, but I want to be sure we are into Spring and not into false Spring! 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, matt9697 said:

Although I wanted at least one significant snowfall in my backyard, I am not complaining. For the fourth year in the 2020s, we have had measurable snow, a far cry from the 2010s, when we would go multiple consecutive seasons without snow of any amount. Hopefully, the trend will continue for the next few years! I am ready for Spring; I have alot of things that need to be moved around regarding landscaping and would like to get started, but I want to be sure we are into Spring and not into false Spring! 

Oh yeah for sure. I was just agreeing with John in that with all the Cold there should have been more Snow. We hit Average Seasonal here , slightly above if you go by the NWS Calculations of adjusting every Year. Glad everyone had at least a decent Season. Still a chance of adding on .