Carvers Gap Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Snowfall totals on WxBell don't match the 12z run....somethin' ain't right with that run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Snowfall totals on WxBell don't match the 12z run....somethin' ain't right with that run. What discrepancy ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 WBIR has our area forecasted for 3 to 5 inches of snow on the evening of Feb 19. I'm in Oak Ridge, TN. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 hours ago, WinterWonderland said: WBIR has our area forecasted for 3 to 5 inches of snow on the evening of Feb 19. I'm in Oak Ridge, TN. that’s really weird for them… where they showing a computer mod when they said that or what? How did they present that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: that’s really weird for them… where they showing a computer mod when they said that or what? How did they present that? I think they have an "in house" Model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX FAN Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Nothing about potential storms Saturday for north Alabama? Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, WX FAN said: Nothing about potential storms Saturday for north Alabama? Strange. There is a severe thread with some disco of this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX FAN Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 13 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: There is a severe thread with some disco of this weekend. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 26 minutes ago, WX FAN said: Nothing about potential storms Saturday for north Alabama? Strange. As Holston noted, they have you covered. Five active threads going right now...flooding, pattern thread, obs, banter, and severe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, WX FAN said: Huh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 19 minutes ago, WX FAN said: Huh? I think for the most part we have a silent agreement with winter months.It's mainly winter talk and not severe,alot of people would rather see snow than severe other than it night be a severe pattern we use the severe threats in the severe thread all year.You can post there and ask questions or add on if you like. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Modeling is still moving around with the potential snow next week. The GFS has been back and forth with a monster. The others are lighter events. They're pretty much showing everything from a forum wide event to a west only or east only event. Hopefully we can reel it to within 48 hours. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I agree with John. The 12z Euro was oh so close to a huge storm. Modeling is having a lot of difficulty with a trailing system being involved. I have waited for trailing system snow(picture the gif with the bones) for hours, and it never got here. Until that gets worked out, we can see anything from a skiff to a HECS on modeling. LOL. If that trailer comes in too late, the storm goes to the Carolinas. If it gets here too early, the storm cuts. If it all consolidates(which looks less likely today), then we get a big storm. I haven't posted much today, because there are only weak trends towards less consolidation. But having done this for a long time, sometimes that energy will consolidate at the last minute... Plus, we are in the window where big storms get lost. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The 12z CMC shows the trailing energy scenario really well. BTW, if you all want to put some severe wx stuff in here, have at it. I haven't followed the Saturday stuff. I live in NE TN, and we get a lot less severe weather up here. Now, we do get some...but just less. How bad does the severe threat look for Saturday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The 18z GFS represents a suppressed path due to the strong cold front. Now, I don't know this for sure....but this is February and not January. If that system comes up the coast and doesn't slide OTS....it should track back to the northwest. I really don't like the trailing energy piece. I am not even sure if that is real - 50/50 either way on that one. For now, the energy arrives too late and we see simply light snow. If that energy speeds up and catches the front runner, it could change dramatically. Either way, models have gone from one cutter after another to a very suppressed solution. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z CMC shows the trailing energy scenario really well. BTW, if you all want to put some severe wx stuff in here, have at it. I haven't followed the Saturday stuff. I live in NE TN, and we get a lot less severe weather up here. Now, we do get some...but just less. How bad does the severe threat look for Saturday? my opinion is exactly that, my opinion and it shouldn’t be considered in any decisions but I like having a thread dedicated to severe. Makes it easier to get to the point of what your interest is. However I also see nothing wrong with some dialogue about upcoming severe events. Sometimes it can become convoluted trying to monitor different events that are multiple days apart. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 39 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GFS represents a suppressed path due to the strong cold front. Now, I don't know this for sure....but this is February and not January. If that system comes up the coast and doesn't slide OTS....it should track back to the northwest. I really don't like the trailing energy piece. I am not even sure if that is real - 50/50 either way on that one. For now, the energy arrives to late and we see simply light snow. If that energy speeds up and catches the front runner, it could change dramatically. Either way, models have gone from one cutter after another to a very suppressed solution. The severe could be a serious situation south of Tennessee on Saturday. High shear low CAPE usually doesn’t do well in ETn before we get to the warmer months. I’ve given my opinion before about the limitations of severe in ETN, especially in the Central Valley when we have a SW to NE storm motion. The other day was a good example of storm motion making a difference in the valley. That set up was just ok, however because we were dealing with west to east tracking supercells, the SW LLJ fed the storms at a better angle which keeps the mountains from disrupting low level flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The GFS/ICON/Canadian all still have the snow event. The Canadian is a monster after being not so good earlier. The GFS is improved and the ICON was a bit as well. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 UKIE is a pretty significant winter storm for the region. If this slips under 120 hours (it's close now) it's probably close to thread starting time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The Euro was like a slightly weaker version of the Canadian. Eastern areas get the most. 1-3 west of the Plateau. 4-8+ across much of the east. The UKIE is similar in the East with heavier snow in the western areas. Won't be surprised if it's entirely different tomorrow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Wow. Just like that overnight the CMC, EURO, UK have a monster storm for TN. Good agreement overnight. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFranklin88 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6z euro holds the trend as well - looks good thru 144 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 When we are talking snow, the first thing I do in the morning is pull up my TWC app while getting ready for work. They use a in house blend of their own now and it seems to be a good image of the overnight runs. Well… my 37918 went from up to 3” to up to 8”. So it’s a beautiful Friday 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said: Wow. Just like that overnight the CMC, EURO, UK have a monster storm for TN. Good agreement overnight. how classic is this look? That looks like a map from 30-40 years ago. one thing that very positive if you like mod conspiracies…. Wednesday morning we had a stupid snow storm on the Euro, 18”-24” area wide. The storm was “lost” for a couple of days and here we are 2 days later. Its not science but it seems to happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The CMC is maybe what I would call a clean pass. The Euro and GFS depend on trailing energy to get totals. The Euro uses trailing energy from the south. The GFS is using a ULL from northwest flo. Very complicated setup and some of those totals are reached in vastly different ways. It makes it look like a Miller A, but only one model has it. The rest requires redevelopment over E TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Usually when we score in E TN, it’s not waiting on redevelopment. That is fools gold all too often. But we can score with a ULL or inverted trough. The trailer is the key, and I hate tracking storms with trailing energy which is the driver. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It appears to be a highly complex pattern for next week to say the least; could get very cold for those areas that put snow on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I think cold is a given. Within 36 hours, this should be a lot clearer regarding the storm. The 12z AIFS had this yesterday….but there are more pieces of energy after the first storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I should add that depending on a trailing system is often a component in many of the fails of bigger storms I have tracked. Trailers tend to verify east of what is modeled in my experience. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I think a lot of it depends, too, on the TPV lobe and how it interacts with all the shortwave vorts swirling beneath it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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