Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The 12z CMC is straight up rocking. Man. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The GFS, and other models to some extent, are trying to workout the details w/ a trailing piece of energy. Does it phase, remain separate, or something else? IDK and I don't think modeling does at this point. I am not a huge fan of waiting on trailing energy in the eastern valley. That doesn't work out more times than not. However, a more consolidated piece of energy could look a lot like the Canadian. I am leaning Canadian, but more because I am "glass half full" with this storm. This window has the potential to really create a big storm. There is really cold air which crashes into the northwest side of the storm. That is the recipe for a significant storm. This is still a complex situation (sounding like MRX now), so stay tuned. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Yeah trailing energy is like chasing a stock trade that's already up 10%. It's a loser's bet. Euro is still south and kind of dry. Now that's a starting point I like over this GFS warm mid-level game again. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The 10:1 ratios have more snow which tells me this is the higher water content snow. Both the GFS and the CMC unload on the Plateau and E TN. The ICON would have been a light to moderate event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Yeah trailing energy is like chasing a stock trade that's already up 10%. It's a loser's bet. Euro is still south and kind of dry. Now that's a starting point I like over this GFS warm mid-level game again. Usually when my backyard is involved, that trailing energy slides right through western North Carolina...seems to often be well east of what is modeled, even as the event is under way. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Yeah trailing energy is like chasing a stock trade that's already up 10%. It's a loser's bet. Euro is still south and kind of dry. Now that's a starting point I like over this GFS warm mid-level game again. And I agree, we want this south of us for a day or two more. February storms tend to crank and overperform. The Canadian and ICON are in good spots, but do we trust them? IDK on that either. For now, it looks like a setup for a bigger storm IF energy can consolidate IMHO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This setup could deliver multiple storms IF the gradient sets up just right(story of our lives). Lots of cold and STJ interaction. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Carvers Gap said: This setup could deliver multiple storms IF the gradient sets up just right(story of our lives). Lots of cold and STJ interaction. Yeah, I think the ICON was going to bring the second wave for more snow. It is the ICON alas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 27 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Yeah, I think the ICON was going to bring the second wave for more snow. It is the ICON alas. For real....I am not dying on the ICON hill! I agree. LOL The GFS, CMC, and ICON have multiple waves rolling along a gradient boundary which stretches east to west is a great recipe for snow, provided cold is involved and timed correctly. Basically, take this week...and shift it south over the forum area. This is a battle royal between the SER and polar/Arctic air masses. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 UKIE: 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GEFS member 25 has given us a ceiling, lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 All down hill from here: 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 We are going to be right there on that one or two degrees makes a difference line aren’t we? 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 16 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: All down hill from here: 25 was the OP last night. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 26 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: We are going to be right there on that one or two degrees makes a difference line aren’t we? Man, there is some crazy cold air barreling down the Plains next week unlike this current week. The 12z CMC, UKMET, ICON have the cold air crashing into the system. The 12z GFS holds a monster high just a hair to the west of other modeling, and then gets convoluted with a two step storm. My main concern for I-40 of E TN and NE TN is a suppressed system. Some recent model runs have been bangers. The ones where our area doesn't get snow is if the storm cuts(then the trailer forms closer to the coast) OR if the system is suppressed. Cold air gets into place on Sunday, and then a bigger shot(the aforementioned cold) rolls in with the storm. Timing TBD. The source region for this storm could be Arctic in nature if it can get here in time. I am concerned the cold air squashes this thing. It may cut, but the cold is strong. For it to cut, the cold would have to be slower and Gulf system faster. IMHO of course. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 For really big storms, I tend to like late season, Arctic air masses crashing south eastward and a slp riding that frontal boundary. We are flirting with that, but I wouldn't say we are ready to go to the dance just yet. Right now, the boundary is more east west. So, the cold "could" slide along over the top of the Gulf system. If the cold gets there quicker -> suppressed. If it is late -> cuts. If it is right on time -> Boomer Sooner. This air mass next week is gonna be cold. Just need for timing to work out, and the STJ not to get strung out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Is the Euro running late? Anyway, the 6z EURO AIFS shows my concern. The system is suppressed by cold, and falls apart after this as it moves eastward. Notice the high over the Lakes (not the hated @TellicoWxGL low!) That would be a slider and a bit strung out. That is probably a forum wide 2-3" snow event. The 12z CMC consolidates the energy and runs that boundary between cold and warm in the Piedomont. It smashes the eastern 2/3 of the state. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Is the Euro running late? yeah it has some data problem. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: yeah it has some data problem. Crap. It is gonna throw out 4-5 ft of snow, and we are gonna have to toss it. LOL. For everyone else so I don't have to post this in two posts. Here are the clown maps for the 12z CMC and GFS. They both get the job done...just slightly differently. The GFS was crazy close to its 0z run. I think modeling is potentially sniffing out a big storm. Where it goes is what everyone is here for! LOL. As they say in the real estate business, "Location, location, location." 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: yeah it has some data problem. In all seriousness, is that a suite wide issue or just unique to the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Carvers Gap said: In all seriousness, is that a suite wide issue or just unique to the Euro? I think its just the Euro according to COD. Got the info off of Southernwx 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 As far as I can tell the whole Euro website is down. https://charts.ecmwf.int/ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 48 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think its just the Euro according to COD. Got the info off of Southernwx Uh oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Is the Euro running late? Anyway, the 6z EURO AIFS shows my concern. The system is suppressed by cold, and falls apart after this as it moves eastward. Notice the high over the Lakes (not the hated @TellicoWxGL low!) That would be a slider and a bit strung out. That is probably a forum wide 2-3" snow event. The 12z CMC consolidates the energy and runs that boundary between cold and warm in the Piedomont. It smashes the eastern 2/3 of the state. seems like I read this a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Euro website back up, but the "charts" section still offline. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Somebody in the MidAtlantic forum said the Euro's depiction of March '93 redux is currently under review by officials and that is causing the delay. 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Suppression depression on the Euro: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Looks like the site has flopped again, so that's the best I have for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 So I screwed up and was so excited when the ECMWF site popped back up and I saw 12, I just assumed 12z. It was 12 Feb 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The 12z Euro has finally run...it looked good. Obligatory -> TIFWIW 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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