Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The 6z Euro has a system for Sunday which is a weak slider for middle and west TN. The 0z/6z GFS and 0z Euro absolutely hammer parts of the forum. The 0z Euro had 2-3 feet on the eastern rim around Nashville. Who knows if they are right? I don't. However, bitterly cold air being injected into a strong STJ can yield good result. Time will tell. The overnight setup has been their for several days on the GFS and on the Weeklies. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Could we go from wet & floods to frozen & shovels. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 For anyone looking for a convenient MJO site: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html I'll archive it in links too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 23 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Could we go from wet & floods to frozen & shovels. Not uncommon IMBY. I don’t think this will be as cold as Jan, but the STJ should be more active. Suppression is always a risk, but the SER will fight suppression during the latter part of Feb. We just want to see everything below us right now. The CPC has us well below normal for temps in their d8-14 and above normal for precip. Before I had access to weather models, that is all I used. If BN cold and AN precip intersected….generally that meant someone was going to score. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 On 2/6/2025 at 7:18 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said: I wish I could find those atmospheric river models with specific parameters they use for California and the Pac NW. There's def. a eastern Pac connection. I found the link I posted for the above in links. It was the last thing I posted in links, lol. Doesn't work for me anymore sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: For anyone looking for a convenient MJO site: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html I'll archive it in links too. Dacula dont maintain it anymore,but his site still is very useful https://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php# 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Looks like the ICON has an incoming slider around 180 hrs. Getting some good support for some kind of event around that timeframe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Started as Sleet and snow mix here as I was turning in last night. Northern Lee and Wise County reported measurable Snow this Morning. From what I can tell on the order of 1-4 inches. Raining there now however. Around an inch of Rain so far here as of now. Heaviest just to my west in SEKY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It was snowing pretty hard here around 3:30 this morning. Woke up to a heavy mix. I've got 3" of heavy wet snow at my house. My parents live more toward the VA/KY stateline, they have 5". It's all switched to a cold rain now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 In what can be described as a massive overperformance temperatures have stayed under forecast with noon sitting at 33 in Honaker with very wet flakes falling. Nearly 5 inches of snow at 2100ft has fallen since the early morning hours compacting to 4 inches. (image and measurements compliments of my sister) Unfortunately, I'm missing this one sitting in JC enjoying a nice cold drizzle. 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Tagging onto BNA's post...the 12z CMC has the system as well on the 19th. The 12z GFS has it, but sent a reflection west of the Apps which messed up thermals. The odd thing....it still pretty much has the primary still taking the low road. With the STJ being so active, if we can time-up a cold shot with some moisture...could be big. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The 12z CMC is outright frigid. The 12z Euro is cold. The 12z GFS doesn't seem to see the cold. Have we seen this movie before? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z CMC is outright frigid. The 12z Euro is cold. The 12z GFS doesn't seem to see the cold. Have we seen this movie before? Yep. So, all the local forecast Outlets and the NWS won't show the real cold in their 10 Day Outlooks. GFS Based. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Be sure to pay attention to the dates. I tried to cycle out the current precip w/ a 32d map. There is a strong EC storm signal on the 500 map if I were to scroll that forward. I "think" it is during the last 4 days of Feb??? Otherwise, this looks a lot different than recent February's. The torch(and it was a freaking torch) is behind us. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 This is the week of with the strongest coastal signal. I don't recall seeing that signal during any previous weeks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 I should add that strong storm signal starts around Feb 20th and ends around March 10th. It isn't just the seven days above. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The following should be treated as a deterministic run...just an extension of the 0z run this morning. But that is a cold 30 day mean for that run. We are about to the point where weeklies aren't useful due to shoulder season approaching. I normally don't even look at these by this time in the winter as things are usually winding down. However, we may have a chance to put a bookend on this winter where we haven't been able to recently. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 CPC bringing it this afternoon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 CPC d8-14 analogs: 19770215 19800208 19770205 19770210 20060208 19780223 20040209 19840302 19780218 19570303 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 The 18z GFS is about to bring it. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 It appears the 18z GFS has found some cold air. 50 degrees colder in the SE in some places when compared to the last 12z run. Nice slider. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The 18z GEFS has a 5-6” snow mean over NE TN. That is usually a good sign for TRI and anybody remotely close. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 EURO and GFS Ensemble runs to 10 days. Most of this is the 19th system, but euro has a few hits for this Sunday that add to the totals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Huge event on the gfs. I don't trust it, but it would be incredible to see. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 15 to 20 inches for the Eastern half of the state there. The GFS has some wild super snow events modeled this year and I don't think a single one has happened to the extent it showed at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 ICON and Canadian also have the storm. Not as crazy as the GFS obviously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I'm woefully behind on the Forum. Missed the severe weather last week. Keeping it simple. Thunder then Snow. Tee it up! Saturday severe: Midweek hvy snow risk. They're not taking that into Chatty Day 7 (climo) but North Bama and North Ga are totally in play. : 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12z modeling still has the snow event. The ICON better than the GFS for more of us. The GFS has a rain to heavy snow set up. The Canadian isn't out to there yet but looks like it's about to give it ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now