Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, John1122 said: The Canadian is similar to the GFS, second wave with a nice snow event. Not quite as heavy as the GFS. Lots of possibilities still on the table, rain is probably the most likely solution but hopefully the snowy solutions work out for us. 12z AIFS looks like it is coming back south to be like the GFS/ CMC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 12z AIFS looks like it is coming back south to be like the GFS/ CMC. The 06 wasn't terrible for 40 and north, but I saw that the AI is colder/flatter than it had been. It's getting into the range where it's basically taken all the other operational models to school, all winter. It's the top verification model at 500mb and for 850 temps the last year plus now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 As is fairly typical at this range, the Euro is hanging back in the SW and pumping up the SE ridge. Which is why it's probably the furthest N of models currently. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Mean while in Japan https://english.news.cn/20250204/8bdc664a92474df2829e2ee02cba7d7f/c.html#:~:text=TOKYO%2C Feb. 4 (Xinhua,snow depth of 1.2 meters. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Not as far south as yesterday at 12z but a definite shift south from 06z. Classic 40 battle line. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 janet janet 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: janet janet Everybody in E TN and NC are like....nope, nope, nope! LOL. We have had all the flooding that we want to see for like the next 50 years. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 This could turn out to be a heartbreaker next week if the Blocking isn't strong enough. We could see heavy Snow just to our North and to the East. Today's guidance continues to waffle but seems to want to hone in on the area across Ky into Wv and across Central Va. Hopefully the further South Track is realized. It's still a Week away so, plenty of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 10 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: This could turn out to be a heartbreaker next week if the Blocking isn't strong enough. We could see heavy Snow just to our North and to the East. Today's guidance continues to waffle but seems to want to hone in on the area across Ky into Wv and across Central Va. Hopefully the further South Track is realized. It's still a Week away so, plenty of time. My gut says prepare for heartbreak as we’re too far south in the battleground setup BUT like last month, this first system may set the table for the next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The 12z suite is south of overnight guidance yet again. I find it hard to believe that is just a coincidence. The CMC has snow for E TN yet again. The GFS is close. I do agree the preponderance of runs suggest KY to the NE. However, as we saw with the Florida systems, sometimes(not always) systems do trend south if the incoming cold is strong. I give us a 35% chance of measurable snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, *Flash* said: My gut says prepare for heartbreak as we’re too far south in the battleground setup BUT like last month, this first system may set the table for the next. Agree 100 %. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I haven't looked closely as these events are still way out there. However, I suspect we are seeing some variations in time of day, rates, and how far the cold pushes southward. Those there aforementioned combos make big differences here in NE TN. The 12z CMC drops 4-12" over TRI. The 12z GFS is probably 200 miles south of where it was just at 6z. We are on the southernmost extent of this setup. We generally want to be on the north side of the rain/snow line, and let it work northward. Right now, wow are on the southside of that line with 6 days to go....not a good spot, but sometimes that does work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z suite is south of overnight guidance yet again. I find it hard to believe that is just a coincidence. The CMC has snow for E TN yet again. The GFS is close. I do agree the preponderance of runs suggest KY to the NE. However, as we saw with the Florida systems, sometimes(not always) systems do trend south if the incoming cold is strong. I give us a 35% chance of measurable snow. The first one is almost guaranteed North. May end as mix. The next and possibly one after bear's watching. A decent Ridge out west or stronger blocking would put us in the sweet spot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The GFS and GEFS ext(GMON) are IMHO getting absolutely roasted by the Euro and Euro Weeklies in regards to the Weeklies - so far. However, the GFS is doing ok w/ modeling systems at range on actual surface maps over NA. That doesn't quite jive. However, I think we need to be careful with the GFS right now as its MJO plotting has been abysmal - I mean really bad. The Canadian and Euro have been more accurate. If it stalls in 6, then American modeling wins. If it races across 6, then American modeling is in big time "catchup" mode. Normally, I would spike the ball and declare American modeling DOA. However, notice that the MJO (when it hit 6)gains a bit higher amplitude. That is a small miss for European modeling. However, the European was correct with the MJO racing across 4 and 5 at low amplitude. Big test coming up. If we are out of 6(even just a bit slower than the Euro depicts), we are good to go. The initial GEFS ext plots had it stalling in 6 and never leaving for the rest of winter. The GEFS ext (GMON) is a full week slower getting into phase 8 - of which its forecast died in phase 6 just weeks ago. American modeling has been dragging its feet with the MJO. To repeat, the real test is now at hand. If it hustles across 6, American modeling is in real trouble with even its medium range products. If it stalls for 10-12 days in 6, then initial American modeling was right. IMHO, the reason we are seeing big swings within certain suites is the handling of the MJO. Actual surface modeling over NA should tip the hand of modeling for future MJO plots. If the cold presses eastward, the CMC/Euro MJO is probably on the precipice of a win. The 12z suite definitely was pushing the cold more. The 12z GFS was a pretty massive break in continuity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I think it is also important to acknowledge that we are smack in the middle of a the worst of what the MJO can do right now. Straight up 5/6. It does seem to want to continue east though. I think the fact that it didn't just sit, centered over Java is one reason the SSWE/ split has pooped out. Not sure that I care too much about that, since so much can go wrong with SSWEs. Seems pretty similar to last time. MJO gets hung up in the area above, then slowly starts to amble eastward. I don't have the the Euro verification handym but at least the GFS has been biased to a weaker pass: I was actually thinking it might be slower than it, so I guess that's a positive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I think me and Carver were thinking along the same lines, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think me and Carver were thinking along the same lines, lol. Gotcha! LOL. The 12z GFS almost erased the SER. That might be a hint that a stall in 6 is unlikely. If that trend holds, we could see some major flips in modeling incoming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 So, the 12z GFS could be a course correction or just an outlier or both. But the 12z GFS doesn't even look remotely like the 6z GFS. The Canadian looks quite similar to 0z. It is worth noting that the CMC sometimes will handle cold intrusions a bit better(if not a bit overdone on its part). And if ya'll see me posting during a model suite after days of "meh," you know something has caught my eye....or maybe something is just in my eye. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I would feel decently good if I lived on the northern Plateau, in southwest Virginia, extreme NE TN, and SE KY. I agree with Boone that the firs system is likely to be rain for most, but some high elevation snow wouldn't surprise me. The first real chance is Feb 11 and then maybe alternating storms after that. We want to see(as others have noted) the first system to press the boundary south as it departs. Then, we want the second system to overrun the cold and trap it. This is less thread the needle and more timing. There aren't a ton of moving parts. This is 100% how far the cold presses after each storm. So, it is a little easier to track in my book. Still work to do, but 12z was a good step. I still think the very best that this pattern can hold is just at d16 now. Feb 20 to March 10 still looks ripe for the picking. If we can go phase 8 w/ this active STJ, somebody should score and maybe more than once. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 If you haven't noticed, I am big on watching trends and looking for breaks in continuity. For the record, one run doesn't equal a trend. However, with the CMC holding steady and the GFS moving towards it...that is what gets my attention. At some point the colder MJO plots should start bearing fruit in LR modeling. We are at a point where deterministic runs can lead the ensembles even at range. We are at the fork in the road so to speak. We have seen the Feb 9th timeframe as a demarcation point between American modeling and the CMC/Euro combo. So, we should see some commonalities begin to re-emerge in modeling. Yesterday morning, it looked like warm was going to be dominant. Now, I am not so sure. We saw the abrupt change yesterday at 12z. We are seeing something similar, though less pronounced today at 12z. I think we see several precip impulses(you all see the same I am sure) between Feb9-16. Then, I think the cold presses east west across an undetermined boundary but likely centered just along the Ohio River Valley, but formidable enough to bring snow north of I-40 at times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The GFS and GEFS ext(GMON) are IMHO getting absolutely roasted by the Euro and Euro Weeklies in regards to the Weeklies - so far. However, the GFS is doing ok w/ modeling systems at range on actual surface maps over NA. That doesn't quite jive. However, I think we need to be careful with the GFS right now as its MJO plotting has been abysmal - I mean really bad. The Canadian and Euro have been more accurate. If it stalls in 6, then American modeling wins. If it races across 6, then American modeling is in big time "catchup" mode. Normally, I would spike the ball and declare American modeling DOA. However, notice that the MJO (when it hit 6)gains a bit higher amplitude. That is a small miss for European modeling. However, the European was correct with the MJO racing across 4 and 5 at low amplitude. Big test coming up. If we are out of 6(even just a bit slower than the Euro depicts), we are good to go. The initial GEFS ext plots had it stalling in 6 and never leaving for the rest of winter. The GEFS ext (GMON) is a full week slower getting into phase 8 - of which its forecast died in phase 6 just weeks ago. American modeling has been dragging its feet with the MJO. To repeat, the real test is now at hand. If it hustles across 6, American modeling is in real trouble with even its medium range products. If it stalls for 10-12 days in 6, then initial American modeling was right. IMHO, the reason we are seeing big swings within certain suites is the handling of the MJO. Actual surface modeling over NA should tip the hand of modeling for future MJO plots. If the cold presses eastward, the CMC/Euro MJO is probably on the precipice of a win. The 12z suite definitely was pushing the cold more. The 12z GFS was a pretty massive break in continuity. Yeah, mentioned that over in SE Sub yesterday when Larry said Weeklies flipped back warm. Makes sense. Hopefully it gets out of six as soon as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill in MS Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just an observation from here in North Mississippi since we are further south than many of you. Winged Elms and Red Maples are blooming along with early daffodils. And Spring Peepers are really loud today! So the seasonal step up process has begun here in nature. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 GFS just janet janeted East TN pretty good. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Nasty OP GFS run for rain and cloudy weather. Front finally pushed south of us Sat and Sun 15 - 16 and wave tries to bring us some snow. Pretty much an on and off firehose until then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 43 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: GFS just janet janeted East TN pretty good. Back to Floodurary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Latest Euro Weeklies qpf for Feb 10-16: 3rd shade of green is 2-3 times normal (~2-4”). Hopefully there won’t be bad flooding. I could sure use some of that extra qpf down here though even here I’m just into shade 2 (would mean ~1.2” here). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 13-15" of rain on the 6z GFS for large portions of middle TN, the Plateau, and E TN. I am guessing that is model feedback. Other globals only have a 1/3 of that. Hopefully that is an outlier which does not verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Best save that one too: Euro: Here are the ensemble means: I don't think everybody sees a widespread 8+ inches like the GFS shows, but there is convective precip involved and for localized areas, if everything lines up, I don't think 10" of rain is impossible. I wish I could find those atmospheric river models with specific parameters they use for California and the Pac NW. There's def. a eastern Pac connection. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: 13-15" of rain on the 6z GFS for large portions of middle TN, the Plateau, and E TN. I am guessing that is model feedback. Other globals only have a 1/3 of that. Hopefully that is an outlier which does not verify. Disaster if that were to happen. Picked up close to an inch here overnight. Ground is full after the 3" last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The 12z Euro is pretty frigid late in that run. Even the GFS gets pretty cold as well. I think we are starting to see some convergence on when/if cold returns. I still think we see a transition from say Feb9-17th. Then, I think we see the MJO rotate into 8 around Feb 16th. I don't think there will be a lag...cold likely returns consistently around then. It might stall there???? Or it might loop quickly back around per the old BOMM from a few days ago. Models will often be too quick with cold returning. It is possible that we go cold/dry when that change occurs. So, I don't want to overhype... American modeling is in the Euro camp today regarding the MJO on CPC's plots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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