Winter 2024/2025 February Thread

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Hopefully we get lucky and get something akin to Feb. 12-13 1985. Heavy Rain to Blizzard . I'd like to know what phase the MJO was then. I'd bet late 7 or early 8. 

      If anyone has archive Data from then post it. I'll see what I can come up with. 

It was in phase 3 when that storm hit. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z. AIFS, one potential out of many:

 

 

[*Flash*]

Bam Wx posted an update vid today validating much of what Carver has been saying in recent days. I learned while MJO Phase 4 and 6 are crapshoots for the TN Valley, sometimes the OH Valley can squeeze out a surprise in Phase 5. Not as blowtorch-y in that phase. We'll see what can happen as we rotate through. Still optimistic for late February/early March. 

[Carvers Gap]

And suddenly, the 12z GFS discovers the MJO is not permanently stuck in phase 6.  Suppressed pattern by decent cold.  I feel like I have seen this movie before.

[BNAwx]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And suddenly, the 12z GFS discovers the MJO is not permanently stuck in phase 6.  Suppressed pattern by decent cold.  I feel like I have seen this movie before.

That was a pretty big shift taken by models overnight…especially the GFS.  I still think we’re tracking again by Valentines Day give or take a few days.  At least I hope we are…

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro has made the same shift.  That is a pretty cold look after d9.  Pretty big departures from normal.  

[John1122]

The Euro AI has a big Tennessee/North Carolina snowstorm in roughly the same time frame the OP models have been showing it mainly along the Ohio River in Kentucky and adjacent states to the north.

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

And suddenly, the 12z GFS discovers the MJO is not permanently stuck in phase 6.  Suppressed pattern by decent cold.  I feel like I have seen this movie before.

Have the deniers still saying The MJO is staying in warm phases thru February. Some Mets at that. I guess they just believe the GEFS solely. Had one respond to a reply I made to another poster irt the Models transitioning cold after 10 days, saying didn't know where we got that info.. He posted the MJO Diagrams of the EC and GEFS and said the warm phases are 5-7 this time of year as if we didn't know, lol.  I had to reply and explain in detail what we were referring to and why. I'm retired now. I don't want any recognition other than a has been but sometimes it's challenging. 

   I totally understand him in a way as most Analogs many used show a milder than average February.  The quandary though is, why hug the GEFs, particularly when it is trending toward the others.?. Also, with the others going into COD why wouldn't that allow other Driver's take control of the Bus?.

[BNAwx]

14 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Have the deniers still saying The MJO is staying in warm phases thru February. Some Mets at that. I guess they just believe the GEFS solely. Had one respond to a reply I made to another poster irt the Models transitioning cold after 10 days, saying didn't know where we got that info.. He posted the MJO Diagrams of the EC and GEFS and said the warm phases are 5-7 this time of year as if we didn't know, lol.  I had to reply and explain in detail what we were referring to and why. I'm retired now. I don't want any recognition other than a has been but sometimes it's challenging. 

   I totally understand him in a way as most Analogs many used show a milder than average February.  The quandary though is, why hug the GEFs, particularly when it is trending toward the others.?. Also, with the others going into COD why wouldn't that allow other Driver's take control of the Bus?.

I don’t really understand their logic either.  Even if the GEFS was correct, it appeared to me (when I checked a couple days ago) to have issues getting the amplitude through each phase correct.  Basically, it was forecasting a higher amplitude than what actually verified.  This is why I agree with you that other indices could easily take over.  I haven’t checked today, but the EPO looked like it might be in our favor going forward.  We know from years past that it CAN rule the roost in the right circumstances.

 

[Carvers Gap]

I still feel like the Feb 20-March 7 timeframe is a good bet for cool.  I think we see some back and forth cold Feb 10-20.  Base warm February looks on tap.  Analogs had a strong warm signal for Feb.  I think they may well be right.  I do think we see a similar pattern reversal as we did during late December.  Ensembles are very warm.  Operationals, including the 18z GFS, are pretty chilly.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro, GFS, and GEFS all have a strat split starting between 10 - 12 days now. The only reason I don't list the EPS on there is I don't see it on weatherbell. 

 

 

 

It looks like the sort of split that if it happens, will take 3 weeks to bring the cold here. The only caveat I can think of is that we have not had one of these in the sort of base state we've had this winter, so it may have impacts sooner, if it happens.

Probably not much more speculation is worthit right now, until we see if it starts to look more likely to happen. 

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS hints again at the Feb11th time frame as an overrunning event.

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro AIFS has a big storm around the 13th.  I wouldn't say models are honking, but they are starting to make some noise around then.  That seems to be a decent little window between the 10th and 14th.  Then another ridge rolls though.  We might have 2-3 windows(which are 2-3 days in length) where we can score.  The EMON(EURO ext) MJO looks super promising.  Modeling will react and turn colder if that is correct.  So far, the Euro MJO is winning.  American modeling has left the idea of a stall in 6, and progress in its forecast.  So, I "think" we will see a cooling trend in modeling beginning around the 20th.   Looks like a decent loop through cold.  The timing(being late in Feb) isn't ideal, but we get what we get, right?

[Wurbus]

I've been waiting for a dishwasher to be scheduled for delivery for a week and half now. They called today and scheduled it for Feb 14th, so I bet we get a snow on the 13th or 14th.

[Carvers Gap]

58 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

I've been waiting for a dishwasher to be scheduled for delivery for a week and half now. They called today and scheduled it for Feb 14th, so I bet we get a snow on the 13th or 14th.

There we go.  The 18z AIFS is cold and snowy....bout that time.

[John1122]

The Euro gave it ago north of 40 across the whole area basically. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

0z AIFS looks good again as well. Might poke around ensemble member charts later. 

[matt9697]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

0z AIFS looks good again as well. Might poke around ensemble member charts later. 

Yea, it seems to echo the replenishment of ground water for sure, I would be surprised if we didnt sneak another snowfall or two out before mid March. 

[Carvers Gap]

While we are still watching mid-Feb, the interior NE could just get smashed.  Take a look at the 6z GFS amounts for that area on Tropical Tidbits.  Snowmeggedon type of stuff (not here, but there).

[Daniel Boone]

If the EURO Products are correct, the GFS may continue to correct toward them . 

   Interestingly however, yesterday's Euro weeklies had basically wall to wall AN. I have my Opinion on those that may differ from Other's but, they are a Medium to LR Forecast Product and ENSO is weighted heaviest with the LR  Products. The Nina has coupled so, it looks pretty apparent the LR's are reflecting that. The MJO is used but, to a lesser degree the further out I think.

   Yesterday's CPC Medium, LR 6-10, 8-14 Outlooks look Standard Nina. I'd say they're also going with the GEFS regarding the MJO. 

[Carvers Gap]

52 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

If the EURO Products are correct, the GFS may continue to correct toward them . 

   Interestingly however, yesterday's Euro weeklies had basically wall to wall AN. I have my Opinion on those that may differ from Other's but, they are a Medium to LR Forecast Product and ENSO is weighted heaviest with the LR  Products. The Nina has coupled so, it looks pretty apparent the LR's are reflecting that. The MJO is used but, to a lesser degree the further out I think.

   Yesterday's CPC Medium, LR 6-10, 8-14 Outlooks look Standard Nina. I'd say they're also going with the GEFS regarding the MJO. 

The ensembles are not showing the cold that the deterministic runs are....yet.  So, I am kind of holding back a bit until those get on board.  The Weeklies just perpetuate a stable pattern if they can.  They never made the transition from cold to warm(well they made the transition late).  That said, the control about 50% of the time does show cold returning.  Need those ensembles on board.  I haven't looked at ensembles yet today, just deterministic.  Since we are about to enter another shoulder season, I figure they are gonna be a mess.

[Carvers Gap]

I mean seriously, ya'll.  Go look at the interior NE maps. LOL.

[Carvers Gap]

When I see cold in the Montana prairies and Dakotas....it usually finds its way into this area.  Just something to watch.  SER is gonna fight.

[Carvers Gap]

That strat split that Holston showed....that will wreck complete havoc on modeling.   That might be why the ensembles are slow to change things up.  I doubt ensembles can handle a strat split any better than a deterministic can.  The GFS several winters ago nailed a strat split from 16 days out, and has done that more than once.  It is a big uncanny that it can do that.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

That strat split that Holston showed.

GFS just threw out a new one at 12z:

 

That's a double warming, first from east Asia and the then the Atlantic. I've never seen a model throw a double out. 

Just one OP run, but I guess that's a possibility on the table now too lol. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Pretty fun to watch the color flip from the equatorial perspective:

[Carvers Gap]

Euro absolutely sent it after 240.  Shots fired!  

[Carvers Gap]

The Interior NE is almost a lock at this point to get buried.  Ohio River looks like a sweet spot as well.  We want that boundary pressed south with each slp.  With as active as the STJ is...almost have to think someone in the SE see frozen on more than one occasion.  That is an active pattern.

[John1122]

We are on the edge of glory or heartbreak. We either watch the Ohio river get buried while we get soaked, or we get waves of winter weather. Models aren't quite sure yet just how much se ridge we get. 

[*Flash*]

3 hours ago, John1122 said:

We are on the edge of glory or heartbreak. We either watch the Ohio river get buried while we get soaked, or we get waves of winter weather. Models aren't quite sure yet just how much se ridge we get. 

Not every day I’m reminded of Lady Gaga on the forum.