Winter 2024/2025 February Thread

[John1122]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Hopefully we get lucky and get something akin to Feb. 12-13 1985. Heavy Rain to Blizzard . I'd like to know what phase the MJO was then. I'd bet late 7 or early 8. 

      If anyone has archive Data from then post it. I'll see what I can come up with. 

It was in phase 3 when that storm hit. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z. AIFS, one potential out of many:

 

 

[*Flash*]

Bam Wx posted an update vid today validating much of what Carver has been saying in recent days. I learned while MJO Phase 4 and 6 are crapshoots for the TN Valley, sometimes the OH Valley can squeeze out a surprise in Phase 5. Not as blowtorch-y in that phase. We'll see what can happen as we rotate through. Still optimistic for late February/early March. 

[Carvers Gap]

And suddenly, the 12z GFS discovers the MJO is not permanently stuck in phase 6.  Suppressed pattern by decent cold.  I feel like I have seen this movie before.

[BNAwx]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And suddenly, the 12z GFS discovers the MJO is not permanently stuck in phase 6.  Suppressed pattern by decent cold.  I feel like I have seen this movie before.

That was a pretty big shift taken by models overnight…especially the GFS.  I still think we’re tracking again by Valentines Day give or take a few days.  At least I hope we are…

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z Euro has made the same shift.  That is a pretty cold look after d9.  Pretty big departures from normal.  

[John1122]

The Euro AI has a big Tennessee/North Carolina snowstorm in roughly the same time frame the OP models have been showing it mainly along the Ohio River in Kentucky and adjacent states to the north.

[Daniel Boone]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

And suddenly, the 12z GFS discovers the MJO is not permanently stuck in phase 6.  Suppressed pattern by decent cold.  I feel like I have seen this movie before.

Have the deniers still saying The MJO is staying in warm phases thru February. Some Mets at that. I guess they just believe the GEFS solely. Had one respond to a reply I made to another poster irt the Models transitioning cold after 10 days, saying didn't know where we got that info.. He posted the MJO Diagrams of the EC and GEFS and said the warm phases are 5-7 this time of year as if we didn't know, lol.  I had to reply and explain in detail what we were referring to and why. I'm retired now. I don't want any recognition other than a has been but sometimes it's challenging. 

   I totally understand him in a way as most Analogs many used show a milder than average February.  The quandary though is, why hug the GEFs, particularly when it is trending toward the others.?. Also, with the others going into COD why wouldn't that allow other Driver's take control of the Bus?.

[BNAwx]

14 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Have the deniers still saying The MJO is staying in warm phases thru February. Some Mets at that. I guess they just believe the GEFS solely. Had one respond to a reply I made to another poster irt the Models transitioning cold after 10 days, saying didn't know where we got that info.. He posted the MJO Diagrams of the EC and GEFS and said the warm phases are 5-7 this time of year as if we didn't know, lol.  I had to reply and explain in detail what we were referring to and why. I'm retired now. I don't want any recognition other than a has been but sometimes it's challenging. 

   I totally understand him in a way as most Analogs many used show a milder than average February.  The quandary though is, why hug the GEFs, particularly when it is trending toward the others.?. Also, with the others going into COD why wouldn't that allow other Driver's take control of the Bus?.

I don’t really understand their logic either.  Even if the GEFS was correct, it appeared to me (when I checked a couple days ago) to have issues getting the amplitude through each phase correct.  Basically, it was forecasting a higher amplitude than what actually verified.  This is why I agree with you that other indices could easily take over.  I haven’t checked today, but the EPO looked like it might be in our favor going forward.  We know from years past that it CAN rule the roost in the right circumstances.

 

[Carvers Gap]

I still feel like the Feb 20-March 7 timeframe is a good bet for cool.  I think we see some back and forth cold Feb 10-20.  Base warm February looks on tap.  Analogs had a strong warm signal for Feb.  I think they may well be right.  I do think we see a similar pattern reversal as we did during late December.  Ensembles are very warm.  Operationals, including the 18z GFS, are pretty chilly.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro, GFS, and GEFS all have a strat split starting between 10 - 12 days now. The only reason I don't list the EPS on there is I don't see it on weatherbell. 

 

 

 

It looks like the sort of split that if it happens, will take 3 weeks to bring the cold here. The only caveat I can think of is that we have not had one of these in the sort of base state we've had this winter, so it may have impacts sooner, if it happens.

Probably not much more speculation is worthit right now, until we see if it starts to look more likely to happen.