January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month

[Kevin Reilly]

4 hours ago, dailylurker said:

This drought is brutal 

You are right.  I am very concerned up here only 8.33" of snow on the year been dry except for 3" of snow over the past 5 weeks with reservoir levels about 15-20 feet below where they should be yea concerning. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol

QB can equalize a lot. Also right now with Dean injured your linebackers are also better. You could also argue TE given our best one is playing injured and hasn’t been good since the injury. But yes the eagles have a talent advantage but the best team doesn’t always win. 

Philly was the only team that actually BEAT the Ravens this season. When they lose they almost always beat themselves. Ravens made a few mistakes in that game but the reason they lost is the Eagles dominated in the trenches- on offense and defense. When a team has both a physical and talented O-line and D-line, it covers up other weaknesses, and even there the Eagles don't have many. It really isn't so much about Hurts, but he does need to make a few plays in the passing game. I would be surprised if the Commanders can hold the Eagles under 200 yds rushing. But if their O-line can keep Daniels pretty clean, he can make some plays downfield, and the game is close in the 4th quarter, they will have a chance. They got the mojo right now.

[dailylurker]

7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

You are right.  I am very concerned up here only 8.33" of snow on the year been dry except for 3" of snow over the past 5 weeks with reservoir levels about 15-20 feet below where they should be yea concerning. 

I own a business that washes commercial and residential buildings. We use a lot of water. Water restrictions could be very bad for business. I'll take warm rainers at this point.

[psuhoffman]

@mitchnick the weeklies were a very snowy run. Stating the second week of Feb straight through into March a solid 1.5-2.5” mean every week. That’s high for a 7 day mean at range. 

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@mitchnick the weeklies were a very snowy run. Stating the second week of Feb straight through into March a solid 1.5-2.5” mean every week. That’s high for a 7 day mean at range. 

That to me is not surprising in what I would call so far, a step back to normalcy when it comes to winter around here this year.  This outlook you talk about climatologically thinking seems normal.  Now with that said we get most of our snow in February for the reason of a baroclinic zone setting up nearby or just south to cash in on the southern lats warming and attacking the retreating cold.

 

Your comment above gives me much hope that our snow chances have really only just begun and have legs as we move towards Spring. 

[stormtracker]

Aiight yall. There’s a banter thread for all of this football talk.  Let’s move it there 

[JenkinsJinkies]

26 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

You are right.  I am very concerned up here only 8.33" of snow on the year been dry except for 3" of snow over the past 5 weeks with reservoir levels about 15-20 feet below where they should be yea concerning. 

Once this “Niña” ends the precip rubber band will snap back hard. I would not be surprised if this drought is firmly in the rear view mirror by May.

[CAPE]

HH GFS is actually an improvement with less interaction/phasing with the digging trough out west. The Southwest upper level energy escapes eastward a bit more vs being pulled north. Not much difference wrt sensible weather in our area, but the change is notable. Stronger HP overtop in southern Canada.

 

[Paleocene]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Well, probably looking at 10 days of nothing interesting ahead, at least. Thread would be dead otherwise lol.

 

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You want analysis of the pattern flip 3 weeks away? 

 

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Aiight yall. There’s a banter thread for all of this football talk.  Let’s move it there 

Looking at all the metrics, I mean models, I think Philadelphia is likely to get more “snow” than Washington. I think Washington might keep it close early with a quick hit, but over the course of the game, I mean season, Philadelphia probably pulls ahead to a comfortable lead. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Over the last few years hoping for March snow to “save” us has always ended in disappointment.

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Over the last few years hoping for March snow to “save” us has always ended in disappointment.

Yeah whenever March is suggested, I can't get all the March failures from 2017 to now outta my head, lol

[dailylurker]

12 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Over the last few years hoping for March snow to “save” us has always ended in disappointment.

March in the lowlands yields heartbreak, wet roads, drip fest, snow that burst into flames soon as the sun hits it. Even the "Super Storm of 93 was interrupted by 60 degrees and rain lol. I'd actually take another January 6th (almost 10") followed by cold than another 2016 dump followed by 60's. I really enjoyed this January. I actually really enjoyed last years little period of deep winter as well. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Over the last few years hoping for March snow to “save” us has always ended in disappointment.

What’s today’s date? 

[psuhoffman]

I’m keeping receipts on some of y’all. Don’t ever tell me I’m being a deb again. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What’s today’s date? 

What’s the title of the thread?

[somecallmetim]

If I squint I can see the logic. Even in a leap year February is barely a month, so obviously it shouldn't count. It's the Delaware of months.

[psuhoffman]

Take a seat on the couch. Close your eyes. Relax. Take a deep breath. Feel your tensions slip away. 
 

Now….try to turn off your emotional response and apply logic here.  We do this EVERY year. Even in 2010. Seriously we were having this conversation around Jan 20 then. When that Jan 30 storm looked suppressed for a few days the “it’s almost over” posts started.

Yes as we get to February the end of Winter is coming.  And yes it is going to end. And I know for some of you that’s emotionally taxing and this is your emotional reaction to cope.

But if you’re going to toss Feb 20 on every year because it’s too close to the end of winter and you can’t handle that for some emotional reason, then realize you have to adjust what winter should look like. Because Baltimore averages about 4.6” after Feb 20.  If you throw that out their avg is only 14.7”. Worse the median goes down to about 10”!  
 

And I ran the weekly numbers years ago when we were having this same discussion and while there is a spike in HECS storms in early to mid Feb and it dips after, weekly snowfall and the chances of a 1”/3”/6” storm remain pretty similar until about March 10 then it goes down fast. 

So if you insist on tossing late winter because it’s too close to the end to enjoy, fine but you have to toss the snow we normally get then and by that standard we’ve already had a median snowfall winter in much of the area!  By that standard we’ve had a good year!  
 

Or you can stay until the end of the movie and actually enjoy the final scene even though it’s almost over  and just accept all things come to an end but next winter will come!   Yea, go with that one. 
 

Ok now you feel completely refreshed. Light as a feather. Open your eyes and enjoy the rest of winter. 
 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Take a seat on the couch. Close your eyes. Relax. Take a deep breath. Feel your tensions slip away. 
 

Now….try to turn off your emotional response and apply logic here.  We do this EVERY year. Even in 2010. Seriously we were having this conversation around Jan 20 then. When that Jan 30 storm looked suppressed for a few days the “it’s almost over” posts started.

Yes as we get to February the end of Winter is coming.  And yes it is going to end. And I know for some of you that’s emotionally taxing and this is your emotional reaction to cope.

But if you’re going to toss Feb 20 on every year because it’s too close to the end of winter and you can’t handle that for some emotional reason, then realize you have to adjust what winter should look like. Because Baltimore averages about 4.6” after Feb 20.  If you throw that out their avg is only 14.7”. Worse the median goes down to about 10”!  
 

And I ran the weekly numbers years ago when we were having this same discussion and while there is a spike in HECS storms in early to mid Feb and it dips after, weekly snowfall and the chances of a 1”/3”/6” storm remain pretty similar until about March 10 then it goes down fast. 

So if you insist on tossing late winter because it’s too close to the end to enjoy, fine but you have to toss the snow we normally get then and by that standard we’ve already had a median snowfall winter in much of the area!  By that standard we’ve had a good year!  
 

Or you can stay until the end of the movie and actually enjoy the final scene even though it’s almost over  and just accept all things come to an end but next winter will come!   Yea, go with that one. 
 

Ok now you feel completely refreshed. Light as a feather. Open your eyes and enjoy the rest of winter. 
 

Great post.  100% accurate. We dont stick a fork until April 2...earliest.  The best is yet to to come...true story.

[CAPE]

For the Feb 2-3 storm the CMC continues to advertise a more wintry outcome for our region. It gets there initially by having less interaction/phasing between the ejecting southwest ULL and the trough digging south from the GoA, and secondly as the low tracks eastward there is significant northern stream vorticity digging southward in southern Canada that flattens/compresses the flow overtop, encouraging HP at the surface with the low tracking further south.

Interestingly on the 0z GEFS there are a half dozen members that have a similar look to the CMC op with a track right over or south of our region and they have snow/mixed precip for the area. There are 2 others with a Miller B look.

 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

For the Feb 2-3 storm the CMC continues to advertise a more wintry outcome for our region. It gets there initially by having less interaction/phasing between the ejecting southwest ULL and the trough digging south from the GoA, and secondly as the low tracks eastward there is significant northern stream vorticity digging southward in southern Canada that flattens/compresses the flow overtop, encouraging HP at the surface with the low tracking further south.

Interestingly on the 0z GEFS there are a half dozen members that have a similar look to the CMC op with a track right over or south of our region and they have snow/mixed precip for the area. There are 2 others with a Miller B look.

 

And looky what the AI is now doing, but temps are warmish but give it tome to trend.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025012500&fh=168

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

And looky what the AI is now doing, but temps are warmish but give it tome to trend.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025012500&fh=168

 

Cold air actually feeds in as the storm progresses if you move it forward.

P.s. Similar track to last week's storm when you think about it.

[CAPE]

Colder pattern gets established the first week of Feb with EPO going negative. Thermal boundary should be pressing southeast with potential for waves riding along it in the Feb 6-9 period. Looks pretty cold for the central/eastern US going forward.

 

 

 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

And looky what the AI is now doing, but temps are warmish but give it tome to trend.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025012500&fh=168

 

Very Canadian like at h5.

[mitchnick]

Sorry for the disjointed posts on the AI. I just started looking at this, so I  don't have all aspects of it down. Lol

One last post. Perfect vort pass for us. Move it forward frombthis spot.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=eus&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025012500&fh=168

[Weather Will]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Cold air actually feeds in as the storm progresses if you move it forward.

P.s. Similar track to last week's storm when you think about it.

Big change in AI for early February. WB 0Z AI.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Very Canadian like at h5.

Ninja'd lol

[CAPE]

More notable southern low camp among the 6z GEFS members. 24 hr snow mean reflects this.

[Blizzard of 93]

42 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Cold air actually feeds in as the storm progresses if you move it forward.

P.s. Similar track to last week's storm when you think about it.

Maybe the Canadian & Euro AI will lead the way just like last Sunday’s event. The other models slowly came around to them after a couple of days.

Let’s see what the 12z runs show later on.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Happy Anniversay to those who celebrate. Can't believe it has been a quarter century!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2000_North_American_blizzard

I remember watching the models 48 hours prior. I  believe we had the MRF, it's sister "high res" avn that went to 72(?), the ETA to 48, and the NGM. All models iirc had a low racing ENE off the GA/SC Coast. I remember particularly seeing the ETA the morning of the 24th had the low stronger, much stronger, but was still well ots. Then 12z on the 24th closer. Then next run closer and a coastal grazing.

No model I dont think had it until it happened. We were on mirc #neweather chat....me, randy iirc, Marcus, ian....we were watching the radar at 0z and saying it didn't match the models. And it was on!!

What a memorable event! Had around a foot where I'm at but we sleeted and dry slotted as it exploded and occluded.