January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Remember, Canadians were the warm models last time and were more right than wrong.

Too bad its on its own

[Terpeast]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Good thing its on its own

FIFY. Not a fan of ice storms, but that’s me. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

FIFY. Not a fan of ice storms, but that’s me. 

I just like winter weather.  Obv rather have snow.  But if we can’t, let’s do ice.  When I had to drive for a living, I hated it. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I just like winter weather.  Obv rather have snow.  But if we can’t, let’s do ice.  When I had to drive for a living, I hated it. 

If I can't have all snow, gimme an inch or 2 of snow and then sleet and zr to glaciate it.

[Paleocene]

Sign me up for the apocalyptic ice storm.

[NorthArlington101]

Since no one bothered to post the snow portion: 

[high risk]

35 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Kinda feels like the GEM often runs too cold with stuff like this...

         Maybe, but the GFS always erodes cold air damming way too quickly, even at shorter ranges.

[BristowWx]

1.5 of ice...not sure how often that has verified anywhere.  is there a word stronger than crippling for ice storms?   

[osfan24]

32 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

FIFY. Not a fan of ice storms, but that’s me. 

Yeah, I've never understood the fascination. I'll take it for the telework day, but that's it.

[WxUSAF]

Last nights EPS apparently was pretty bullish on big ice from this threat next weekend

[osfan24]

42 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gem total zr

@Eskimo Joeis giddy looking at this. 

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

1.5 of ice...not sure how often that has verified anywhere.  is there a word stronger than crippling for ice storms?   

Nobody’s getting that with marginal (31-32) temps.  Of course I’m just assuming.  Just got off a plane and haven’t looked at any models because the WiFi speed was about 56k modem dial up. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nobody’s getting that with marginal (31-32) temps.  Of course I’m just assuming.  Just got on a plane and haven’t looked at any models because the WiFi speed was about 56k modem dial up. 

There's something faster?

[Kmlwx]

A few notes about ice storms (like the big ones) - 

We all know that ice is often a lot less than expected. Heavy rain won't accrete well. Antecedent cold is important for those sick puppies out there hoping for a crippling ice storm. Ex: If we are 31-32 it's probably not going to be a biblical ice storm. But if we have a ton of cold air for a handful of days (or longer) ahead of the storm, those surface temperatures can really lead to a messy ice storm. 

CAD (as we all know) is underestimated at range many times. 

I don't believe in "we're due" - but I will say that this year has had legit ice storm potential in my mind with all the Barney cold that we've had. My gut feelings mean nada, but if we were going to have an overperforming ice event...this feels like the year it could happen...and I'm referring not to the tenth to half inch events - but the incredibly damaging 3/4 inch or higher events. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

A few notes about ice storms (like the big ones) - 

We all know that ice is often a lot less than expected. Heavy rain won't accrete well. Antecedent cold is important for those sick puppies out there hoping for a crippling ice storm. Ex: If we are 31-32 it's probably not going to be a biblical ice storm. But if we have a ton of cold air for a handful of days (or longer) ahead of the storm, those surface temperatures can really lead to a messy ice storm. 

CAD (as we all know) is underestimated at range many times. 

I don't believe in "we're due" - but I will say that this year has had legit ice storm potential in my mind with all the Barney cold that we've had. My gut feelings mean nada, but if we were going to have an overperforming ice event...this feels like the year it could happen...and I'm referring not to the tenth to half inch events - but the incredibly damaging 3/4 inch or higher events. 

 

[mitchnick]

Odd that thru 276hrs the Gefs has a pretty good snowfall mean of 2-2.5+", as opposed to 1" or less the past few runs. Might be counting sleet as snow, idk?

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Odd that thru 276hrs the Gefs has a pretty good snowfall mean of 2-2.5+", as opposed to 1" or less the past few runs. Might be counting sleet as snow, idk?

It comes mostly from 3 members with pretty big hits between the 2nd and the 4th. Almost nothing on the rest.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It comes mostly from 3 members with pretty big hits between the 2nd and the 4th. Almost nothing on the rest.

Encouraging that there are a few with big hits. I guess that means there weren't any big hits in prior runs. 

[mitchnick]

This Euro run sure dried up, at least thru 330hrs.

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This Euro run sure dried up, at least thru 330hrs.

Seems like it's kinda shut the blinds for awhile that run.

[dailylurker]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This Euro run sure dried up, at least thru 330hrs.

This drought is brutal 

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

This drought is brutal 

I did think we would be tracking every week...that is not actually the case believe it or not...I hope winter is not a pretty good 3 weeks and done

[peribonca]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

1.5 of ice...not sure how often that has verified anywhere.  is there a word stronger than crippling for ice storms?   

Had 5 inches of freezing rain in Montreal in 1998. It was crippling and destructive

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, peribonca said:

Had 5 inches of freezing rain in Montreal in 1998. It was crippling and destructive

Thought that was 99

[stormtracker]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This Euro run sure dried up, at least thru 330hrs.

Yeah, CMC on some ol’ bullshit. 

[peribonca]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thought that was 99

98... Year I graduated from McGill

[psuhoffman]

our best chance at any snow might be that clipper that goes to our north next week...wouldn't be the craziest adjustment I've ever seen to get that south.  Not saying its a good shot, just our best shot.  

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, peribonca said:

98... Year I graduated from McGill

Maybe 99 was the one that hit the DC area...I wasn't really affected by either I was at PSU those 2 winters.  

I love Montreal.  There was a cute little Irish pub on Bishop or Crescent St...can't remember which.  

[midatlanticweather]

This looks pretty good. not great.... but pretty good

[psuhoffman]

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

This looks pretty good. not great.... but pretty good

That's more than fine...into phase 7 by Feb 7th heading towards 8.  That would time the flip colder to be by Feb 20th or so.