January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month

[Blizzard of 93]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

All I can say is who knows with any certainty what's going to happen next week.  6z Euro operational and Eps at 144hrs vs 0z at 150hrs. It doesn’t mean it's going to snow, but it does mean I ain't giving up yet.

P.s. Don’t get seasick.

Surface maps are interesting as well at the end of the 6z Euro & EPS at 144 hours.

[CAPE]

 A feature to keep an eye on is the presence of shortwave energy in eastern Canada and associated confluence/convergence inducing HP at the surface. If that energy ends up stronger/digs a bit more there is the possibility of a stronger/souther HP in SE Canada.

The 0z Canadian is the closest to a decent outcome for some of the region at this point.

 

 

[CAPE]

^Its actually a hellacious ice storm lol.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

^Its actually a hellacious ice storm lol.

Yep. I'll take a pass on that one. Gotta take the Canadian seriously however. What has become clear is that with this "correcting" with every model cycle, though snow may not be favored now, everything remains on the table.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yep. I'll take a pass on that one. Gotta take the Canadian seriously however. What has become clear is that with this "correcting" with every model cycle, though snow may not be favored now, everything remains on the table.

I will be watching that shortwave energy up in Canada. With the antecedent HP over the eastern US exiting stage right as the storm approaches, we are going to need a flow of cold/dry air from the north given the low is not likely to take an ideal track to our south. Might get a Miller B deal though.

[mitchnick]

6z AI still has the low passing pretty far to our west which might open the door for zr/ip. However, verbatim surface temps are above freezing until about Harrisburg, PA. 

At the end of the run it's showing an overrunning snow potential similar to 0z operational Euro. I think we'll  have to endure a couple warmer storms before the SER is beaten down enough for us to be on the right side of the boundary, assuming it ever gets to our south.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

6z AI still has the low passing pretty far to our west which might open the door for zr/ip. However, verbatim surface temps are above freezing until about Harrisburg, PA. 

At the end of the run it's showing an overrunning snow potential similar to 0z operational Euro. I think we'll  have to endure a couple warmer storms before the SER is beaten down enough for us to be on the right side of the boundary, assuming it ever gets to our south.

Definitely an ugly run. 
 

even at the end the boundary is lifting north for the overrunning potential 

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

^Its actually a hellacious ice storm lol.

Yeah but with it falling mostly during the day and temps right around freezing... I really would not think it would amount to much

[mitchnick]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Definitely an ugly run. 
 

even at the end the boundary is lifting north for the overrunning potential 

Not abnormal for boundary in an overrunning event to move north, but that's a detail to worry about if it's still there in 10 days. Lol

Our fate rests on the strength of the SER, for better or for worse. Hopefully it works in our favor at least some of the time.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

All I can say is who knows with any certainty what's going to happen next week.  6z Euro operational and Eps at 144hrs vs 0z at 150hrs. It doesn’t mean it's going to snow, but it does mean I ain't giving up yet.

P.s. Don’t get seasick.

If you expand out the view so the upstream trough near the GoA can be seen, might be a hint of less/later interaction as that trough digs southeastward. The Canadian has a different orientation wrt the WPO ridge and that trough, the trough isn't as deep and there is less interaction/ northward 'pull' on the ejecting shortwave energy.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

^Its actually a hellacious ice storm lol.

Gimmie

[CAPE]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Gimmie

A couple tweaks on the Canadian evolution(mostly a little stronger/further southwestward HP over southern Canada) and at least some of our region could see more sleet/snow. 

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A couple tweaks on the Canadian evolution(mostly a little stronger/further southwestward HP over southern Canada) and at least some of our region could see more sleet/snow. 

Keep delaying the Gfs or Euro and there could be some HP to the north show up. Lol

[mattie g]

6 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

Yes.. I just saw this yesterday on Facebook page : Severe Weather Europe  

A historic Storm Éowyn is nearing Ireland and will impact the coastal areas with life-threatening hurricane-force winds gusting 160-200 km/h. It is expected to arrive early Friday morning.

** Stay Alert **

Live tracking here: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/storm-eowyn-windstorm-ireland-bomb-cyclone-uk-north-atlantic-europe-mk/

Upcoming storm names:

• Frodo
• Gandalf
• Hama
• Imrahil

Can't think of any LOTR 'J' names...

[anotherman]

9 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Upcoming storm names:

• Frodo
• Gandalf
• Hama
• Imrahil

Can't think of any LOTR 'J' names...

J.R.R. Tolkien

[psuhoffman]

I've seen speculation regarding the timing of the TPV and cut off low.  IMO that doesn't matter much, it's the amplitude of the trough and ridge that matters.  If the amplitude continues to be too great (Deep trough with a huge ridge behind it) the cut off low is simply going to stall and wait then cut once the ridge in over top it.  Even if it tried to eject into that deep trough it would get shredded to oblivion in that look.  The only way this would work if with a flatter flow over the top allowing the cut off low to eject under it.  

[mitchnick]

Gfs is ugly.

[mitchnick]

Gem not quite as bad looking at 186hrs.

[mitchnick]

Gem now starts as snow

[mitchnick]

Gem is lt snow to ice for many. Obviously, exact location depends on a lot of things.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gem is lt snow to ice for many. Obviously, exact location depends on a lot of things.

By Many I’m guessing you mean the usual suspects. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

By Many I’m guessing you mean the usual suspects. 

It's actually CAD for the whole area verbatim....but of course its the GEM at 240 hours.  This threat window isn't dead but it's on life support. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

By Many I’m guessing you mean the usual suspects. 

Starts with this panel.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025012412&fh=222&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ma&p=prateptype-imp&m=gdps

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It's actually CAD for the whole area verbatim....but of course its the GEM at 240 hours.  This threat window isn't dead but it's on life support. 

Kinda feels like the GEM often runs too cold with stuff like this...

[mitchnick]

Gem total zr

[Chris78]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Gem total zr

I'll take the under on that lol.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Kinda feels like the GEM often runs too cold with stuff like this...

Remember, Canadians were the warm models last time and were more right than wrong.

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gem total zr

 

Probably better to use the FRAM calculation versus the raw QPF to ZR. But what does it matter this far out I guess  

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Remember, Canadians were the warm models last time and were more right than wrong.

Yeah but that was a different kind of setup, though. When it's something like this with being a CAD setup, we've seen it run too cold, haven't we? I know models can underdo CAD, but without any other support (we'll wait for the euro) ya gotta wonder.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Probably better to use the FRAM calculation versus the raw QPF to ZR. But what does it matter this far out I guess