January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month

[clskinsfan]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was referring to putting out a forecast for a single storm at day 8.  It might end up rain to Canada or suppressed to nothing for all we know.  But didn’t southeast of us get that first storm?  At least southeast of me lol. I guess it’s all perspective. I actually think this winter has been oddly diffuse so far with no defined track. One storm went really far south. One hit Bob Chill area with 3-5” And we got 1-2”  One jacked just SE of DC and one just NW. there is a huge area in the east near to slightly above norm on snow but no area got crazy totals because the storms were all over the place. 

Guess I have been lucky. But this is a pretty "normal" winter so far imo.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Guess I have been lucky. But this is a pretty "normal" winter so far imo.

Feels like the winters of my childhood years. I’m at around 60% of climo so far with roughly halfway to go

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Feels like the winters of my childhood years. I’m at around 60% of climo so far with roughly halfway to go

I mean I am at 20 days of snowpack. With at least another week left. Maybe I should leave the board? This winter has been really good.

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I need 21”. That might be hard but a couple of the analog years would get me close. I need 16” though to hit my median which is more realistic. 

But I don’t grade winters purely on that number. I had a nice surprise snow in November. I’ve had some snow on the ground most of the winter!  If I get one more nice snowstorm, say an 8” storm sometime in Feb or March I’ll give this a B. It’s already a C even without anymore snow. 2 more decent storms and it’s getting close to A territory whether I hit average or not. 

[Kevin Reilly]

Historic Storm to blast Ireland.
 

 Anyone know anything about this?  Figure I ask since there is a bit of down time and our cold air getting stale and eroding away each day through early next week. 

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Historic Storm to blast Ireland.

Bro. We have struggles with NYC ffs. Bringing Ireland into the fray is not a good thing..

[rjvanals]

13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I mean I am at 20 days of snowpack. With at least another week left. Maybe I should leave the board? This winter has been really good.

Having prolonged snowpack and multiple events has made this a fun January 

[wxdude64]

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I mean I am at 20 days of snowpack. With at least another week left. Maybe I should leave the board? This winter has been really good.

Same, no complaints here.

[psuhoffman]

We should ask Ji. He is the ultimate arbiter of whether it’s a good winter right? 

[Ji]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We should ask Ji. He is the ultimate arbiter of whether it’s a good winter right? 

This winter has been okay. I feel like we have wasted a lot of cold air. We have been below normal for 2 months and our snowfall is not where it should be. The cold is making it snowier than we think because there is always snow on the ground but in terms of storminess.....its been okay. Nothing to write home about. If this was an NFL team...we would be 7-6 right now with a chance for a wild card

[pazzo83]

31 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Bro. We have struggles with NYC ffs. Bringing Ireland into the fray is not a good thing..

They are supposed to get 200 km/hr winds - looks pretty bad.

[Heisy]

00z gfs differences thus far




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[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

00z gfs differences thus far




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The cold is far more expansive and intense. More single digits.

[Heisy]

Not sure it’ll lead to anything, but improvements at least. It’s a lot slower with the main low vs euro Ai




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[Ji]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

00z gfs differences thus far




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its just taking too long for the ULL to move. Lets hope thats an error. The northern stream actually looks great if we get the timing correct

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Not sure it’ll lead to anything, but improvements at least. It’s a lot slower with the main low vs euro Ai




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combine the AI speed with ULL with GFS cold air blast and you got a big storm lol

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

combine the AI speed with ULL with GFS cold air blast and you got a big storm lol

Oy these slow ULLs this month! Like why man, lol

[Heisy]

The cold is far more expansive and intense. More single digits.

Mitch if you look at 18z euro Ai that western ridge isn’t as strong so the northern stream energy is able to race eastward faster. With the big ridge on the GFS the ULL just gets trapped under it. Maybe it was an off run by the Ai, but one model is way off

Check out these differences lol




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[Heisy]

CMC more resembles the Ai, doesn’t have the crazy ridge




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[Heisy]

Cmc is a nasty ice storm


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[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

CMC more resembles the Ai, doesn’t have the crazy ridge




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Verbatim, it hiys NE pretty good. Could see that comkng. Plenty of time.

I'm out for the night.

[Heisy]

Verbatim, it hiys NE pretty good. Could see that comkng. Plenty of time.
I'm out for the night.

Major sleet/ice for us that run


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[Heisy]

Just for fun…also, HM mentioned on our discord that the setup could be favorable for an ice/mix front end if things go well






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[ravensrule]

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Yep. I can understand this....

I have never known you to drink . 

[Yeoman]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Just for fun…also, HM mentioned on our discord that the setup could be favorable for an ice/mix front end if things go well






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I'd feel better if it was only 9 days out

[Heisy]

I'd feel better if it was only 9 days out

Oh yea, I realize that, but besides pattern talk it’s the next potential thing on the docket. Verbatim that’s an epic ice/sleet event. Fun to look at that’s all.


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[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Oh yea, I realize that, but besides pattern talk it’s the next potential thing on the docket. Verbatim that’s an epic ice/sleet event. Fun to look at that’s all.


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Apparently you don’t know inch long. He is making fun of you. Just ignore him. 

[snowmagnet]

6 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Historic Storm to blast Ireland.
 

 Anyone know anything about this?  Figure I ask since there is a bit of down time and our cold air getting stale and eroding away each day through early next week. 

Yes.. I just saw this yesterday on Facebook page : Severe Weather Europe  

A historic Storm Éowyn is nearing Ireland and will impact the coastal areas with life-threatening hurricane-force winds gusting 160-200 km/h. It is expected to arrive early Friday morning.

** Stay Alert **

Live tracking here: https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/storm-eowyn-windstorm-ireland-bomb-cyclone-uk-north-atlantic-europe-mk/

[Weather Will]

Crazy at work, but casual observation that we are still in the game at 6Z for wintry precipitation inside 10 days.  Two big hits to our south on WB 6Z GEFS.

[mitchnick]

All I can say is who knows with any certainty what's going to happen next week.  6z Euro operational and Eps at 144hrs vs 0z at 150hrs. It doesn’t mean it's going to snow, but it does mean I ain't giving up yet.

P.s. Don’t get seasick.