January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

I think that the best-case scenario for our end-of-month threat is a 4-8" I-95 and 8-12" NW, almost like a 20% reduction of Feb 11 2014. Once we get into mid-late Feb, we should see some more chances with the AO/NAO flip.

This winter is seeming like a slightly worse 2013-14. Hopefully we can get the snow in March like we did in March 2014.

You are amazing... I will spend the rest of my life aspiring to get to this level!  To be able to put out a detailed specific snowfall range on a storm 200 hours out is impressive!  I bow down to you sir.  

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

but which normals are they using????? 

Idk but it's median not mean

[bncho]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You are amazing... I will spend the rest of my life aspiring to get to this level!  To be able to put out a detailed specific snowfall range on a storm 200 hours out is impressive!  I bow down to you sir.  

Thank you, I’ll be sure to add 'Professional Storm Predictor' to my resume right next to 'Time Traveler'.

[cbmclean]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

but which normals are they using????? 

The upcoming 2030 - 2060 base period.  -10 F equates to 60 F.

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

Thank you, I’ll be sure to add 'Professional Storm Predictor' to my resume right next to 'Time Traveler'.

Now if it happens like that…legend status for you

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

The upcoming 2030 - 2060 base period.  -10 F equates to 60 F.

Barney won't ever be the same 

[Paleocene]

47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Damascus received 24", Takoma Park received 5". An incredible snowfall gradient across Montgomery County from that event.

Thanks for the reminder that I was in Takoma Park at that time.

[mitchnick]

A bit of an improvement on the weeklies today from the last few runs, especially the first 2 while weeks in February. Note, however, starting the week of the 17th when the warmer anomalies hit, that we are on the north side of the dotted line most weeks. The dotted lines show the significance level and being on the north side shows less significance than below it. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501230000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502030000

[brooklynwx99]

lmao

[87storms]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If you ever need a reminder of how much chance plays in all this...

This was one of our least snowy January's

And this was one of our snowiest lol 

Chance is right...monthly anomaly "averages" can be misleading.  All it takes is one timely storm to overcome a less than ideal average height pattern and, of course, untimely shortwaves can ruin a good one.  The challenge is that upcoming patterns are unlikely to turn out the way we want, so comparing something that might happen to something that already did, will add even more overthinking.  I can see why looking at the large scale features (MJO, NAO, etc.) and placing bets on that would be a better game to play than just hoping for a proposed H5 pattern to deliver (since that's still a moving target beyond 7-10 days).

I'm brainstorming...mostly just taking a break from doing my weekly status report lol.

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Thank you, I’ll be sure to add 'Professional Storm Predictor' to my resume right next to 'Time Traveler'.

How many years until you get to high school?. 

[CAPE]

Latest Euro Weeklies for the week beyond the end of the 0z ens run. This is actually a decently cold look with cold air delivery mechanism between the ridge over AK and the TPV. Plus the thermal boundary is very close by for shortwaves to traverse.

[bncho]

GFS is a poor run overall, unless you include 384 hr fantasy stuff.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS is a poor run overall, unless you include 384 hr fantasy stuff.

I know we'll never see that blocking over the Poke as depicted at the end of the 18z run, but man is that perty.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

17 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS is a poor run overall, unless you include 384 hr fantasy stuff.

It's actually really not that bad in my opinion.  And it's not just 384-h fantasy stuff.  Just giving a cursory look.

 

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I know we'll never see that blocking over the Poke as depicted at the end of the 18z run, but man is that perty.

I saw that!  Pretty unreal looking and there's some really cold air nearby to work with potentially.  Not just at the end of the run, but before then as well.

[midatlanticweather]

 

 

[Heisy]

A bit of an improvement on the weeklies today from the last few runs, especially the first 2 while weeks in February. Note, however, starting the week of the 17th when the warmer anomalies hit, that we are on the north side of the dotted line most weeks. The dotted lines show the significance level and being on the north side shows less significance than below it. 
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501230000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502030000

12z euro Ai actually trended favorably if we wanted some front end. I’m not selling that just yet at this range, we’ll see what 18z brings


.

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, Heisy said:

12z euro Ai actually trended favorably if we wanted some front end. I’m not selling that just yet at this range, we’ll see what 18z brings


.

Speaking of which, end of the 18z Euro run shows quite a noticeable change between 12z and 18z.