87storms Posted Monday at 03:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:17 PM 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: For accumulating snow, it's on life support imho. I was rooting for snow...actually have ski plans Saturday, but that ain't looking too good rn. Maybe PA can stay frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Monday at 03:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:47 PM 11 hours ago, MJO812 said: Watch for thus depiction to become the closest to being true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Monday at 03:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:52 PM What's the look forward in the drought? We had some good snow this month but didn't really make much dent in the drought. My caterpillars dont do well in drought conditions and last summer was rough in that department. I'm hoping we start getting some rains. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Monday at 04:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:12 PM The latest GEFS Extended believes that Phil will not see his shadow on Feb. 2. EPS says its more likely the sun will be shining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Monday at 04:14 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:14 PM 2 hours ago, Paleocene said: CPC nailed our cold snap, so no reason to not trust them. Break out the shorts, get ready for crocuses and snowdrops here in the UHI That’s probability, not intensity. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted Monday at 04:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:18 PM 4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: That’s probability, not intensity. And even if it *was* intensity - we aren't even in the higher shades! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Monday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:22 PM 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: And even if it *was* intensity - we aren't even in the higher shades! According to the legend we'd be in "leaning" not "likely" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Monday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:43 PM Don't look at the 12z gfs for the Friday system, but do look at the 12z gfs for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Monday at 04:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:46 PM 1040s over Quebec can work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Monday at 04:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:46 PM 3 hours ago, Paleocene said: CPC nailed our cold snap, so no reason to not trust them. Break out the shorts, get ready for crocuses and snowdrops here in the UHI Crocuses and snowdrops?? How warm do u think it's gonna get ?? lol let's not get carried away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Monday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:47 PM The Euro has 1"+ rains DC and north this Friday/Saturday. Hopefully that doesn't trend north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted Monday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:49 PM 29 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: And even if it *was* intensity - we aren't even in the higher shades! If you examine it more closely, it's actually saying that our temps are going to be the same as northern Alaska..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Monday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:49 PM 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: The Euro has 1"+ rains DC and north this Friday/Saturday. Hopefully that doesn't trend north. Im Not even tracking that system anymore I'm looking ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Monday at 04:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:50 PM It’s kind of funny, if I woke up from a coma and you showed me just this map I’d think a major snowstorm was coming… just a bad airmass going in and low gets squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Monday at 04:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:52 PM 1 minute ago, Heisy said: It’s kind of funny, if I woke up from a coma and you showed me just this map I’d think a major snowstorm was coming… just a bad airmass going in and low gets squashed . Storms not even worth tracking . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Monday at 04:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:57 PM 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: It’s kind of funny, if I woke up from a coma and you showed me just this map I’d think a major snowstorm was coming… just a bad airmass going in and low gets squashed . Yea, we've had more miserable storm tracks, but looks like the northern jet is too far north...almost split flow-like, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Monday at 05:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:18 PM It better not f'ing torch next Thursday-Sunday. I'm not in the mood for spring conditions at Wisp! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted Monday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:44 PM GFS looks like multiple chances in the next 12 days. Hopefully there's a score in there somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Monday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:45 PM 57 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Crocuses and snowdrops?? How warm do u think it's gonna get ?? lol let's not get carried away lol Here's a pic of a small field of snowdrops in my neighbor's yard in zip code 20910 (downtown Silver Spring and surrounding nhoods). Date Stamp: 2/4/24. I have another pic of crocuses from 2/2/23. Barring very cold conditions in the next 7-10 days, I will be able to find a bunch of flowers like these in my nhood 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Monday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:56 PM 35 minutes ago, mattie g said: It better not f'ing torch next Thursday-Sunday. I'm not in the mood for spring conditions at Wisp! Was just out in Swanton this weekend...don't worry they'll have plenty of snow. I was snowshoeing on our property and most areas had two feet of powder on the ground. Though I just looked and it seems there's a good chance of rain out there Saturday. That would stink...but there will be snow...fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Monday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:56 PM Earliest daffodils in my neighborhood (almost full sun all day) and some forsythias should be popping here soon enough... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Monday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:57 PM So a warm period the first week of Feb looks highly likely barring some major modeling collapse (wouldn't it be nice if the warm pattern collapsed like last years epic pattern collapsed?) Looks like the crystal ball is very murky after that. As @psuhoffman has pointed out, historical analogs say a flip back to cold would be expected by the end of February into March. The real question as I see it is what happens the period of say Feb 10 - 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Monday at 05:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:57 PM Just now, IronTy said: Was just out in Swanton this weekend...don't worry they'll have plenty of snow. I was snowshoeing on our property and most areas had two feet of powder on the ground. Though I just looked and it seems there's a good chance of rain out there Saturday. That would stink...but there will be snow...fwiw. I hear ya. I'm not worried about the base, and a couple mild days won't bother me, but I just don't want a torch and rain while we're there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Monday at 06:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:01 PM 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: I hear ya. I'm not worried about the base, and a couple mild days won't bother me, but I just don't want a torch and rain while we're there! I hear you, it can get pretty gloomy out there with snow on the ground when it's warm and rainy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted Monday at 06:07 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:07 PM 3 hours ago, BristowWx said: I got a legit warning event, days of snow cover, and BN temps. Even a morning low of 2 at my house. I really can't complain if things collapse from here...but I think we'll get another fun period before spring we had snow on the ground (still do some) for 3 weeks - not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Its a Breeze Posted Monday at 06:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:10 PM 20 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Here's a pic of a small field of snowdrops in my neighbor's yard in zip code 20910 (downtown Silver Spring and surrounding nhoods). Date Stamp: 2/4/24. I have another pic of crocuses from 2/2/23. Barring very cold conditions in the next 7-10 days, I will be able to find a bunch of flowers like these in my nhood lol, barring consistent extreme record breaking warmth in the next 7-10 days...I doubt it. Soil temperatures now compared to the past two years are vastly (20 degrees?) cooler. Even DCA has only had 3 nighttime lows above freezing. And two of those were the 1st and 2nd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Monday at 06:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:15 PM La Nina was a late bloomer this year. ENSO subsurface cold didn't get going until late December. Now it's impacting the Pacific pattern in February, and probably March.. It was neutral in Oct-Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Monday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:17 PM 6 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said: lol, barring consistent extreme record breaking warmth in the next 7-10 days...I doubt it. Soil temperatures now compared to the past two years are vastly (20 degrees?) cooler. Even DCA has only had 3 nighttime lows above freezing. And two of those were the 1st and 2nd. Alright. I'm on the hunt. Nothing beats the power of the UHI. I will find a snowdrop by 10 days from now and post it here by or before 2/6/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Monday at 06:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:18 PM 33 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Here's a pic of a small field of snowdrops in my neighbor's yard in zip code 20910 (downtown Silver Spring and surrounding nhoods). Date Stamp: 2/4/24. I have another pic of crocuses from 2/2/23. Barring very cold conditions in the next 7-10 days, I will be able to find a bunch of flowers like these in my nhood 2/2/24: That was a week after an 80 degree day. 2/2/23: That was following a +9 temp January. Neither of these are the case this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Monday at 06:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:21 PM The long term decadal pattern going into Feb-March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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