January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Euro says enjoy the rain or drive a long way for snow.

The trend on the Euro is for a sharper shortwave digging south in Ontario instead of a broad vorticity ribbon compressing the flow. This induces a pretty significant surface low to the north- not really what we want to see. Pretty touchy situation with wave timing/interactions.

 

[mitchnick]

No help from the AI at 18z.

[CAPE]

Just now, mitchnick said:

No help from the AI at 18z.

Good news- still 6 days to go.

[mitchnick]

18z Gefs back to a nasty SER and AN heights and temps at the end of the run. 

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gefs back to a nasty SER and AN heights and temps at the end of the run. 

Not the best looking indices in the near-term (still learning this part of the hobby)...

https://www.weather.gov/fgz/Teleconnections

The mid- to late-Feb winter renewal seems rational.

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gefs back to a nasty SER and AN heights and temps at the end of the run. 

It keeps shifting the AK ridge back and forth, which lowers confidence in gefs until it’s more consistent. I’d lean on the EPS anyway

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

It keeps shifting the AK ridge back and forth, which lowers confidence in gefs until it’s more consistent. I’d lean on the EPS anyway

 Trying to iron out the MJO and Nina coupling. 

[Heisy]

00z cmc might give N regions some accumulating snow this run


.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

00z cmc might give N regions some accumulating snow this run


.

 

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

00z cmc might give N regions some accumulating snow this run


.

GFS was light snow for MD/PA border folks too. Better runs tonight. 

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

00z cmc might give N regions some accumulating snow this run


.

The high in Ontario is moving in tandem with the slow moving weak low.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS was light snow for MD/PA border folks too. Better runs tonight. 

Yes indeed 

[WEATHER53]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

This is the most likely final outcome 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

This is the most likely final outcome 

How can you know this 5 and a half days out?

[WEATHER53]

Just now, ravensrule said:

How can you know this 5 and a half days out?

Following the pattern of the  season and from how I’ve seen things evolve and work out in the past.

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

How can you know this 5 and a half days out?

Because the Mongolians told him

[ravensrule]

16 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Following the pattern of the  season and from how I’ve seen things evolve and work out in the past.

So you’re getting no snow from this but i am?.

[mitchnick]

All 0z ensembles have cozied up to the SER and AN temps at the end of their runs. Between climo and the continuing healthy easterly wind burst strengthening the Niña, it is what it is. The easterly wind burst should end around 2/10, so we'll have that and climo hopefully shifting back in our favor sometime after that. 

[Paleocene]

CPC nailed our cold snap, so no reason to not trust them. Break out the shorts, get ready for crocuses and snowdrops here in the UHI

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

CPC nailed our cold snap, so no reason to not trust them. Break out the shorts, get ready for crocuses and snowdrops here in the UHI

What I don't like about those maps is they do not state the amount of departures from normal, only chances of departure from normal.

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

What I don't like about those maps is they do not state the amount of departures from normal, only chances of departure from normal.

Yeah, that's a fair point. Wonder if any red-taggers know. I imagine the degree of departure is related to the probability in some way

[87storms]

CPC nailed our cold snap, so no reason to not trust them. Break out the shorts, get ready for crocuses and snowdrops here in the UHI

Like the Commanders, we had a good run. Time to focus on next year’s Modoki?

[BristowWx]

I got a legit warning event, days of snow cover, and BN temps.  Even a morning low of 2 at my house.  I really can't complain if things collapse from here...but I think we'll get another fun period before spring

[SnowGolfBro]

15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I got a legit warning event, days of snow cover, and BN temps.  Even a morning low of 2 at my house.  I really can't complain if things collapse from here...but I think we'll get another fun period before spring

I still have snow cover in my front yard lol. A couple weeks of deep winter with snow cover is better than a lot of winters around these parts. Playing with house money for the rest of the winter.

[RickinBaltimore]

One of the joys of sun angle: My front yard is 99% snow cover free now. Across the street? Fully covered still.

[stormtracker]

So the council of pros have met and we have decided to abandon the potential storm and move to the next, yeah?

[IronTy]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So the council of pros have met and we have decided to abandon the potential storm and move to the next, yeah?

Yup

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So the council of pros have met and we have decided to abandon the potential storm and move to the next, yeah?

For the most part, yes...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will keep the region dry Thursday into Thursday
evening. Some increasing clouds with a developing southerly flow
will evolve as the high moves offshore. A low pressure system
moving east across the Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday
will spread some rain across the region Thursday night through
Friday night. High temperatures Thursday will be near average
reaching the middle to upper 40s. Thursday night`s lows will be
about 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday night`s lows due to the
increased southerly flow and cloud cover and rain. Friday`s
highs could be 10 degrees warmer than Thursday`s highs. The
exact track of the low pressure system will determine amounts of
rainfall and if cold air ahead of the low will be given a
chance to have a mixed bag of precipitation.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So the council of pros have met and we have decided to abandon the potential storm and move to the next, yeah?

For accumulating snow, it's on life support imho. 

[IronTy]

7 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said:

One of the joys of sun angle: My front yard is 99% snow cover free now. Across the street? Fully covered still.

My entire property in Calvert is on a north sloped forested hill and I swear I have snow cover 3wks longer than everybody else.