CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Euro says enjoy the rain or drive a long way for snow. The trend on the Euro is for a sharper shortwave digging south in Ontario instead of a broad vorticity ribbon compressing the flow. This induces a pretty significant surface low to the north- not really what we want to see. Pretty touchy situation with wave timing/interactions. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 No help from the AI at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, mitchnick said: No help from the AI at 18z. Good news- still 6 days to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 18z Gefs back to a nasty SER and AN heights and temps at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Gefs back to a nasty SER and AN heights and temps at the end of the run. Not the best looking indices in the near-term (still learning this part of the hobby)... https://www.weather.gov/fgz/Teleconnections The mid- to late-Feb winter renewal seems rational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Gefs back to a nasty SER and AN heights and temps at the end of the run. It keeps shifting the AK ridge back and forth, which lowers confidence in gefs until it’s more consistent. I’d lean on the EPS anyway 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 hours ago, Terpeast said: It keeps shifting the AK ridge back and forth, which lowers confidence in gefs until it’s more consistent. I’d lean on the EPS anyway Trying to iron out the MJO and Nina coupling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 00z cmc might give N regions some accumulating snow this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: 00z cmc might give N regions some accumulating snow this run . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: 00z cmc might give N regions some accumulating snow this run . GFS was light snow for MD/PA border folks too. Better runs tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: 00z cmc might give N regions some accumulating snow this run . The high in Ontario is moving in tandem with the slow moving weak low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS was light snow for MD/PA border folks too. Better runs tonight. Yes indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is the most likely final outcome 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: This is the most likely final outcome How can you know this 5 and a half days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, ravensrule said: How can you know this 5 and a half days out? Following the pattern of the season and from how I’ve seen things evolve and work out in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: How can you know this 5 and a half days out? Because the Mongolians told him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 16 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Following the pattern of the season and from how I’ve seen things evolve and work out in the past. So you’re getting no snow from this but i am?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 All 0z ensembles have cozied up to the SER and AN temps at the end of their runs. Between climo and the continuing healthy easterly wind burst strengthening the Niña, it is what it is. The easterly wind burst should end around 2/10, so we'll have that and climo hopefully shifting back in our favor sometime after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 CPC nailed our cold snap, so no reason to not trust them. Break out the shorts, get ready for crocuses and snowdrops here in the UHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, Paleocene said: CPC nailed our cold snap, so no reason to not trust them. Break out the shorts, get ready for crocuses and snowdrops here in the UHI What I don't like about those maps is they do not state the amount of departures from normal, only chances of departure from normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: What I don't like about those maps is they do not state the amount of departures from normal, only chances of departure from normal. Yeah, that's a fair point. Wonder if any red-taggers know. I imagine the degree of departure is related to the probability in some way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 CPC nailed our cold snap, so no reason to not trust them. Break out the shorts, get ready for crocuses and snowdrops here in the UHILike the Commanders, we had a good run. Time to focus on next year’s Modoki? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I got a legit warning event, days of snow cover, and BN temps. Even a morning low of 2 at my house. I really can't complain if things collapse from here...but I think we'll get another fun period before spring 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I got a legit warning event, days of snow cover, and BN temps. Even a morning low of 2 at my house. I really can't complain if things collapse from here...but I think we'll get another fun period before spring I still have snow cover in my front yard lol. A couple weeks of deep winter with snow cover is better than a lot of winters around these parts. Playing with house money for the rest of the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 One of the joys of sun angle: My front yard is 99% snow cover free now. Across the street? Fully covered still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 So the council of pros have met and we have decided to abandon the potential storm and move to the next, yeah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So the council of pros have met and we have decided to abandon the potential storm and move to the next, yeah? Yup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So the council of pros have met and we have decided to abandon the potential storm and move to the next, yeah? For the most part, yes... .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will keep the region dry Thursday into Thursday evening. Some increasing clouds with a developing southerly flow will evolve as the high moves offshore. A low pressure system moving east across the Ohio Valley Thursday night into Friday will spread some rain across the region Thursday night through Friday night. High temperatures Thursday will be near average reaching the middle to upper 40s. Thursday night`s lows will be about 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday night`s lows due to the increased southerly flow and cloud cover and rain. Friday`s highs could be 10 degrees warmer than Thursday`s highs. The exact track of the low pressure system will determine amounts of rainfall and if cold air ahead of the low will be given a chance to have a mixed bag of precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So the council of pros have met and we have decided to abandon the potential storm and move to the next, yeah? For accumulating snow, it's on life support imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, RickinBaltimore said: One of the joys of sun angle: My front yard is 99% snow cover free now. Across the street? Fully covered still. My entire property in Calvert is on a north sloped forested hill and I swear I have snow cover 3wks longer than everybody else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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