January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month

[mitchnick]

The Ukie track explains why its ensembles at 6z that I posted earlier had the best snowfall maps for the period than any of the other ensembles. 

[stormtracker]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro might be better. Ukie track, Gfs precip maybe? Lol

I'll let you know in a few

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro might be better. Ukie track, Gfs precip maybe? Lol

It's 6z ish, but the ULL is a bit further east, but nothing jumping out so far

[stormtracker]

North progress of the ULL is halted at like hour 135.  It's not like the Ukmet tho.   Still interesting to watch

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

North progress of the ULL is halted at like hour 135.  It's not like the Ukmet tho.   Still interesting to watch

SER is a beast.

[CAPE]

Similar to the CMC, but a tad further south and weaker.

[Terpeast]

Its gonna take a lot more shifting to make this one a hit. Not saying we’re out, but more of a long shot

[mitchnick]

Very much Ukie-like with the loss of precip to the north of the slp once it does get south of us. Can't recall seeing one like that.

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Similar to the CMC, but a tad further south and weaker.

That’s a heck of a shift from its 0z run as well.

[CAPE]

A lot to be resolved with the shortwave energy up in Canada. 12z Euro has that sharper sw that wasn't there on the 6z run- similar to the ICON. That helps pop a low pressure that moves eastward just to the north of our wave of interest.

eta- actually it was there at 6z just a little weaker.

[Kevin Reilly]

25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Similar to the CMC, but a tad further south and weaker.

Workable / trackable with better timing and a bit more southeast push which is doable from this lead. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Workable / trackable with better timing and a bit more southeast push which is doable from this lead. 

Not like there is anything else to track other than a pattern change in a couple weeks.

[mitchnick]

Looking at the operationals and their ensembles, it's really looking like New England's time to score unless the SER turns out tamer than currently progged.

[mitchnick]

Umm...JI

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Umm...JI

HUGE shift in the AK ridge from 6z to 12z (we want it more east. This is not the typical run to run shifts, but a bigger one.

12z

 

6z

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Umm...JI

EPS is colder at day 15 also 

[Ji]

Umm...JI

That’s not a surprise. It’s a few days delayed but
It is what it is

[psuhoffman]

@Ji in the last 16 years IAD has had 3” or more snow in March more often than February. 7 times v 6. 

IAD has had 5” more often in March 6 times to 5!  
 

Feb beats March in 10” months by 1 in the last 16 years.  3x to 2.  
 

The odds of a 3/6/8” snow is almost the same each week from Jan 1 to March 15 then hits wall and goes to almost nothing by March 20th.  
 

It is true there is a spike in 12”+ events from Jan 20-Feb 18 then the chances of a 12”+ storm does go down but in terms of snow we have the same chances to get a 6” snow the first 10 days of March as we nave the first 10 in February  

 

[psuhoffman]

Have to wait and see if today was a trend or another head fake at progressing too fast.
 

[Ralph Wiggum]

55 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

HUGE shift in the AK ridge from 6z to 12z (we want it more east. This is not the typical run to run shifts, but a bigger one.

12z

 

6z

Eye spy a Scandi Ridge

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

20 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Where has chuck been?  He ok? 

I'm kind of getting tired of saying the same thing as the last few years -- Neg PNA and +NAO builds in, shutout coming for at least 2-3 weeks. I was waiting for a good setup for snow and it just didn't come after that first one in the new cold pattern. Originally, the 2nd storm looked like that could phase with the PV, but then that trended much more disconnected and we only got 1". More of the same as the last 7 Winter's right now -- strong RNA for February. Our 7-year average for Feb/March broke #2 going back to 1948 for strongest 500mb anomaly by +170%, and it's interesting that that looks to continue for year 8. Definitely something is causing these 2nd half of Winter -PNA periods.  The 2-month period from late Nov to mid Jan was fun though.. it snowed here 15 times (flurries or more). 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

19 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Surprisingly, surface temps past day 10 aren't as warm as that map would suggest fwiw.

When the ridge goes up into Alaska, the surface is much colder than 500mb across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS

[mitchnick]

Maybe an improvement on the AI from last run but not enough to make a difference. 

[mitchnick]

9 hours ago, mitchnick said:

This is different.  Pivotal has the Ukie ensembles.  My experience of watching them has been they are more conservative than the other ensembles until within 24-36 hours of the event.

Yet, the 6z run just came in with the attached 24hr snowfall for next Sunday, by far the most of any of the ensembles. Looks like we have a few days of tracking if nothing else.

Update. 12z ukie ensemble snow mean for same period shows an increase, also more than any other 12z ensemble.

EDIT: I initially had the wrong map using the total for the run at 174hrs vs 24 hrs ending 174hrs. Fixed it.

 

[Ji]

Update. 12z ukie ensemble snow mean for same period shows an increase, also more than any other 12z ensemble.
EDIT: I initially had the wrong map using the total for the run at 174hrs vs 24 hrs ending 174hrs. Fixed it.
 

What are we doing here ?

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

What are we doing here ?

Posting about weather. 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

What are we doing here ?

Tracking a long shot is more fun than watching the commies get clobbered

[Heisy]

Posting about weather. 

Funny thing is, the models have now moved to showing the same progression the Ai was showing for this event when it was over 240 hours out. We just don’t have the cold air in time


Track is fine the air mass sucks

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Funny thing is, the models have now moved to showing the same progression the Ai was showing for this event when it was over 240 hours out. We just don’t have the cold air in time


Track is fine the air mass sucks

Track is a bit too far north. It snows just to our north as modeled. Need the NS vorticity to dig further south as it did on the 0z run- shifting the upper convergence/confluence zone and surface HP further south. That was really close to being a good outcome here.

[mitchnick]

18z Euro says enjoy the rain or drive a long way for snow.