mitchnick Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 The Ukie track explains why its ensembles at 6z that I posted earlier had the best snowfall maps for the period than any of the other ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 16 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Euro might be better. Ukie track, Gfs precip maybe? Lol I'll let you know in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 19 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Euro might be better. Ukie track, Gfs precip maybe? Lol It's 6z ish, but the ULL is a bit further east, but nothing jumping out so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 North progress of the ULL is halted at like hour 135. It's not like the Ukmet tho. Still interesting to watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: North progress of the ULL is halted at like hour 135. It's not like the Ukmet tho. Still interesting to watch SER is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Similar to the CMC, but a tad further south and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Its gonna take a lot more shifting to make this one a hit. Not saying we’re out, but more of a long shot 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Very much Ukie-like with the loss of precip to the north of the slp once it does get south of us. Can't recall seeing one like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Similar to the CMC, but a tad further south and weaker. That’s a heck of a shift from its 0z run as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 A lot to be resolved with the shortwave energy up in Canada. 12z Euro has that sharper sw that wasn't there on the 6z run- similar to the ICON. That helps pop a low pressure that moves eastward just to the north of our wave of interest. eta- actually it was there at 6z just a little weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 25 minutes ago, CAPE said: Similar to the CMC, but a tad further south and weaker. Workable / trackable with better timing and a bit more southeast push which is doable from this lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said: Workable / trackable with better timing and a bit more southeast push which is doable from this lead. Not like there is anything else to track other than a pattern change in a couple weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Looking at the operationals and their ensembles, it's really looking like New England's time to score unless the SER turns out tamer than currently progged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Umm...JI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Umm...JI HUGE shift in the AK ridge from 6z to 12z (we want it more east. This is not the typical run to run shifts, but a bigger one. 12z 6z 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Umm...JI EPS is colder at day 15 also 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Umm...JIThat’s not a surprise. It’s a few days delayed butIt is what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 @Ji in the last 16 years IAD has had 3” or more snow in March more often than February. 7 times v 6. IAD has had 5” more often in March 6 times to 5! Feb beats March in 10” months by 1 in the last 16 years. 3x to 2. The odds of a 3/6/8” snow is almost the same each week from Jan 1 to March 15 then hits wall and goes to almost nothing by March 20th. It is true there is a spike in 12”+ events from Jan 20-Feb 18 then the chances of a 12”+ storm does go down but in terms of snow we have the same chances to get a 6” snow the first 10 days of March as we nave the first 10 in February 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Have to wait and see if today was a trend or another head fake at progressing too fast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 55 minutes ago, Terpeast said: HUGE shift in the AK ridge from 6z to 12z (we want it more east. This is not the typical run to run shifts, but a bigger one. 12z 6z Eye spy a Scandi Ridge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 20 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Where has chuck been? He ok? I'm kind of getting tired of saying the same thing as the last few years -- Neg PNA and +NAO builds in, shutout coming for at least 2-3 weeks. I was waiting for a good setup for snow and it just didn't come after that first one in the new cold pattern. Originally, the 2nd storm looked like that could phase with the PV, but then that trended much more disconnected and we only got 1". More of the same as the last 7 Winter's right now -- strong RNA for February. Our 7-year average for Feb/March broke #2 going back to 1948 for strongest 500mb anomaly by +170%, and it's interesting that that looks to continue for year 8. Definitely something is causing these 2nd half of Winter -PNA periods. The 2-month period from late Nov to mid Jan was fun though.. it snowed here 15 times (flurries or more). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 19 hours ago, mitchnick said: Surprisingly, surface temps past day 10 aren't as warm as that map would suggest fwiw. When the ridge goes up into Alaska, the surface is much colder than 500mb across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Maybe an improvement on the AI from last run but not enough to make a difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 9 hours ago, mitchnick said: This is different. Pivotal has the Ukie ensembles. My experience of watching them has been they are more conservative than the other ensembles until within 24-36 hours of the event. Yet, the 6z run just came in with the attached 24hr snowfall for next Sunday, by far the most of any of the ensembles. Looks like we have a few days of tracking if nothing else. Update. 12z ukie ensemble snow mean for same period shows an increase, also more than any other 12z ensemble. EDIT: I initially had the wrong map using the total for the run at 174hrs vs 24 hrs ending 174hrs. Fixed it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Update. 12z ukie ensemble snow mean for same period shows an increase, also more than any other 12z ensemble. EDIT: I initially had the wrong map using the total for the run at 174hrs vs 24 hrs ending 174hrs. Fixed it. What are we doing here ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, Ji said: What are we doing here ? Posting about weather. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, Ji said: What are we doing here ? Tracking a long shot is more fun than watching the commies get clobbered 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Posting about weather. Funny thing is, the models have now moved to showing the same progression the Ai was showing for this event when it was over 240 hours out. We just don’t have the cold air in time Track is fine the air mass sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: Funny thing is, the models have now moved to showing the same progression the Ai was showing for this event when it was over 240 hours out. We just don’t have the cold air in time Track is fine the air mass sucks Track is a bit too far north. It snows just to our north as modeled. Need the NS vorticity to dig further south as it did on the 0z run- shifting the upper convergence/confluence zone and surface HP further south. That was really close to being a good outcome here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 18z Euro says enjoy the rain or drive a long way for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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