January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month

[bncho]

did the early-feb snowstorm risk come back from the dead?
hell yes.

[mitchnick]

I think that clipper that comes thru NE Wednesday into Thursday really needs to blow up once it exits the coast as it becomes part of the larger gyre (thank you Larry Cosgrove) near the 50/50 location. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

That is getting soooo close to good. Plenty of time too for a meaningful trend...assuming it wants to keep trending.

Every time I’m out, yall pull me back in.  

[bncho]

In late-December we had thought this warm-up would be in early-mid January and last forever.
We pushed it back to the first week of February, and it's only going to last 5 days.
Is this the first time a can-kick worked in our favor?

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

In late-December we had thought this warm-up would be in early-mid January and last forever.
We pushed it back to the first week of February, and it's only going to last 5 days.
Is this the first time a can-kick worked in our favor?

I wouldn't describe the future as the past. Everything is on the table for February at this ppint. Even the models can't figure it out.

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

did the early-feb snowstorm risk come back from the dead?
hell yes.

Gonna take a lot more interesting developments at our latitude south of 70 and east of 81.  

[osfan24]

43 minutes ago, bncho said:

In late-December we had thought this warm-up would be in early-mid January and last forever.
We pushed it back to the first week of February, and it's only going to last 5 days.
Is this the first time a can-kick worked in our favor?

True, but let’s also not forget we we were supposed to have above-average precip for January and most of the area generally got a 6-8 inch snowstorm and that was about it outside of some very minor events.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

did the early-feb snowstorm risk come back from the dead?
hell yes.

Did winter get uncancelled after being recancelled yesterday following the uncancelled recancel on Friday? It's hard keeping up with the posts in this thread.

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Did winter get uncancelled after being recancelled yesterday following the uncancelled recancel on Friday? It's hard keeping up with the posts in this thread.

yeah these posts are confusing me as well

[mitchnick]

I think the 12z Icon is headed in the right direction at 102hrs.

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Did winter get uncancelled after being recancelled yesterday following the uncancelled recancel on Friday? It's hard keeping up with the posts in this thread.

This is a discussion thread. No one cancels anything. People overreact sometimes. It's a weenie panic thing, and there is actually a special place for that.

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I think the 12z Icon is headed in the right direction at 102hrs.

Nah

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nah

It has a more distinct/sharper shortwave digging south into Ontario, and pops a pretty strong surface low directly north of our potential storm. That's not helpful at all.

[psuhoffman]

@Ji I just looked over all the ensemble guidance and the mjo forecasts and compared it to the analogs I’ve been tracking. We’re right on track. Most of the similar analog years had a relax and warmer period for about 2-4 weeks sometime late January to late February.  The pattern progression looks very similar and right on time. 
 

However, something differentiates this year from the warmer more delayed shift years. It’s colder and even during the warm up cold is near and ready to attack once the pattern flips. Some of the warmer years the long wave pattern flipped like Feb 15-20 but we wasted another week getting cold.   That won’t happen this year.  Im betting we flip back cold real fast once the mjo gets to 8 and the AO continues its consistent pattern and dips below -1 again. The timing of that looks to be around Feb 15-20 imo. 
 

This seems like a less extreme version of 2014 to me. Maybe a combination of 2014 and 2009 is the closest to reality right now. But I don’t think the warm up is as long or as hopeless as in the dreg years we feared were the best analogs!  
 

If you’re holding this year to some unrealistic standard like expecting a 1996 or 2014 outcome(the two best non Nino winters of the last 75 years) then you’re likely to be disappointed which seems to be your status quo!   But if you compare this season to the majority of cold neutral to weak Nina comps like 2001, 2002, 2009, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2021, 2022, 2023 we are very likely to finish above the average snowfall of those combines years and might even make a run at being the best of them except for 2014,  depending on how the second half goes.  
 

So I ask what bar are you using to judge because we are doing way better then almost all the best analogs.  

 

[BlizzardNole]

Euro has DC at 64 degrees next Sunday at 2 PM, and the GFS has 25 degrees.  Ever seen them that far apart?  Confirms that the funny phone weather app hugs the Euro

[stormtracker]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nah

GFS doesn't seem like it's gonna help us out either

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS doesn't seem like it's gonna help us out either

Overnight the EPS/GEPS were more interested then the GFS for this one, wouldn’t be surprised to see the other models show the next digital hit (if we get one more)

[CAPE]

12z GFS is not too far off. This run is similar to 6z. Need more southward dig of that NS vorticity ribbon. It's a bit flatter/further east than the 0z run, which was very close to something good. The area of convergence associated with feature that determines the location of surface HP. This run the high is more to the NE(and sliding out) instead of N/NW of the approaching low like 0z.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

yeah these posts are confusing me as well

Just listen to the more knowledgeable, steady posters in here and ignore the rest. While many of us live model run to model run when there's a threat, I don't think that approach is a good idea when looking down the road at the overall pattern. Run to run emotional reaction clouds the bigger picture, imo

All that to say...just listen to the better brains, lol

[Blizzard of 93]

12z Canadian had huge changes from last night at 0z for next Saturday am.

12z top - low off NJ coast

0z bottom- low in Iowa

[Heisy]

Ukie is well south




.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Ukie is well south




.

That really looks like a hit. Waiting on Pivotal. 

[Heisy]

That really looks like a hit. Waiting on Pivotal. 

It’s prob a touch warm leading in, so maybe backside frozen?


.

[mitchnick]

Just now, Heisy said:

It’s prob a touch warm leading in, so maybe backside frozen?


.

Yeah, that High is lagging, but the slp goes from SE Texas to southern VA. Nice trajectory. 

[mitchnick]

Correct 144

[CAPE]

See what the 12z Euro does. The end of the 6z run was a significant improvement over 0z for that same time, and the EPS concurred.

Gimmie a 1035 H in that same spot.

[ravensrule]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It’s prob a touch warm leading in, so maybe backside frozen?


.

My favorite kind of storm. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Correct 144

Could you perhaps post just this as opposed to every panel leading up to it? It got a bit cluttery...

[mitchnick]

Lol no precip in the cold sector. Wtf?

[mitchnick]

Euro might be better. Ukie track, Gfs precip maybe? Lol