January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month

[Heisy]

.

[Ji]

Yeah I know. I need to reup weatherbell so I’ve been out of loop. End of that 18z euro run that cape just posted looks a bit interesting. Can someone post H5 vorticity? It almost looks like that confluence might be able to dive farther south in time.


.

You cancelled wb in January?

[Heisy]

You cancelled wb in January?

Major changes on GFS also. I just didn’t reup the subscription lol


.

[Heisy]

Ai is king Ji, check out these changes on the GFS lol




.

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Major changes on GFS also. I just didn’t reup the subscription lol


.

Major changes indeed 

0z top 

18z bottom 

[Blizzard of 93]

0z GFS exits the low east & flips many to snow or mix.

[Ji]

lol

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z GFS exits the low east & flips many to snow or mix.

 

[psuhoffman]

But Ji cancelled winter 

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But Ji cancelled winter 

you did too...until feb 15

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

you did too...until feb 15

I said it would be harder to be cold than it has been until then. And even on this gfs it’s warm for a decent bit before and after that threat. 
 

But anything that’s not “it’s gonne be frigid and snow a shit ton” seems to end up interpreted as “winters over”

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I said it would be harder to be cold than it has been until then. And even on this gfs it’s warm for a decent bit before and after that threat. 
 

But anything that’s not “it’s gonne be frigid and snow a shit ton” seems to end up interpreted as “winters over”

you know our area--unless this is Feb 2015 again....the odds lower drastically after PD weekend....so having it delay from Feb 5 to Feb 8 to now as late as Feb 15 is a very big deal

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

you know our area--unless this is Feb 2015 again....the odds lower drastically after PD weekend....so having it delay from Feb 5 to Feb 8 to now as late as Feb 15 is a very big deal

What are you talking about?  A week ago we were speculating the flip back cold might be the very end of Feb or early March. I said “if it flips back by Feb 20 we are ahead of schedule”   And you had accumulating snow in March in 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2022. 

[Ji]

What are you talking about?  A week ago we were speculating the flip back cold might be the very end of Feb or early March. I said “if it flips back by Feb 20 we are ahead of schedule”   And you had accumulating snow in March in 2009, 2010, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2022. 

We never talked about that. In fact the euro weeklies were normal to below for the entire month of February a week ago
We never talked about a 3 week shut the blinds and hide the kids window

[CAPE]

8 hours ago, Ji said:

I think cape is talking about the big differences even between the op

Bigger point is the models wont correctly resolve wave timing and interactions a week out. What I posted was the Euro from 18z yesterday at the end of the run, and the prior day 18z run at the same point. There has been a trend for less interaction with the trough out west, and differences in central/eastern Canada with NS energy resulting in a flatter more compressed flow- encouraging HP at the surface and potentially keeping the low further south/weaker as it moves eastward. That's our path to victory if there is one.

[CAPE]

The 0z GFS evolution was close to ideal. Looking at the surface, note the HP over southern Canada that I was referring to in the previous post.

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, Ji said:

We never talked about that. In fact the euro weeklies were normal to below for the entire month of February a week ago
We never talked about a 3 week shut the blinds and hide the kids window

Yea we did. A lot. But you’re taking it to extremes again. The pattern being advertised isn’t a no hope for weeks pattern. It’s a period where we likely end up above normal and most of the precip will be rain but we could luck into a snow event if we bet a well timed follow up wave behind a cold front. Cold will be close enough that it’s not hopeless.  Them sometime between Feb 20-March 1 we likely go back into a truly favorable period where the cold is centered over us again. 
 

There were lots of posts to that effect in the last week by several people. I even listed the analogs and pointed out we did get some snow during the warmer Feb period in a few of the years like that 2-4” storm in Feb 2018!  
 

I have no idea where you got the idea that we would flip back cold by early Feb except if you totally bought into one or two runs of the euro at day 15.  It was progressing things way too fast, which is a common error. We will get there. I’m very confident we get another cold/snowy period. But all the analogs say it’s probably not until around Feb 20-March 1 that we truly flip cold again. That doesn’t mean we won’t get anymore snow before then. But it’s likely to average above normal on the whole until at least Feb 15. 

[CAPE]

The 6z run has a a little different wave timing wrt the NS vorticity and it doesnt dig as much- so less upper confluence/convergence in southern Canada, with the low track a bit further NW.

[CAPE]

6z Euro at the end of its run. This is a good look. Surface low a tad too far north verbatim.

[CAPE]

Pretty big change from 0z run. 

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

6z Euro at the end of its run. This is a good look. Surface low a tad too far north verbatim.

That High Pressure north of Wisconsin is pressing east too and probably strengthening with that trough to the north seen in the far right, upper corner.

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty big change from 0z run. 

That is getting soooo close to good. Plenty of time too for a meaningful trend...assuming it wants to keep trending.

[mitchnick]

6z 144hrs 850's Euro top and Eps bottom. Plenty of cold to the north and operational not an outlier considering the Eps. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That High Pressure north of Wisconsin is pressing east too and probably strengthening with that trough to the north seen in the far right, upper corner.

Some good trends. Seeing much less interaction out west with the trough not digging as much. Less amped overall. It's going to take perfect placement/timing between the key features to get the result we want. A lot of moving parts in a progressive flow regime. No help in the NA.

Need that NS energy up in Canada to dig enough and be in the right location to get the surface HP overtop the low as it tracks east. If that energy is out in front, associated  HP slides east allowing the low to track northward on the backside.

[mitchnick]

6z AI not buying the cold scenario. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

There's no doubt there will be some sort of a relax period (delayed January thaw?) which we traditionally see every season. It is cool to see it continue to get delayed tho. Wonder if the duration shortens as well?  Btw, if next Saturday happens, kudos to the LR guidance for  showing this in unison at a few points last week.

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z AI not buying the cold scenario. 

Check out the EPS- 6z vs 0z for the same time.

The 0z mean still phased in some of the energy from the trough out west in the panels beyond this, with low pressure lifting further north towards the GLs as the high pressure overtop slides eastward. There is more separation from the western energy on the 6z run, and the HP to the north is in a better position. Looks like the low would track more east than north if the run continued beyond 144.

[mitchnick]

This is different.  Pivotal has the Ukie ensembles.  My experience of watching them has been they are more conservative than the other ensembles until within 24-36 hours of the event.

Yet, the 6z run just came in with the attached 24hr snowfall for next Sunday, by far the most of any of the ensembles. Looks like we have a few days of tracking if nothing else.

[Terpeast]

Just now, mitchnick said:

This different.  Pivotal has the Ukie ensembles.  My experience of watching them has been they are more conservative than the other ensembles until within 24-36 hours of the event.

Yet, the 6z run just came in with the attached 24hr snowfall for next Sunday, by far the most of any of the ensembles. Looks like we have a few days of tracking if nothing else.

Looks like a CAD event for our sub if the cold air holds like the 6z eps has trended towards as CAPE said above

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like a CAD event for our sub if the cold air holds like the 6z eps has trended towards as CAPE said above

It struck me as an 0z Gfs scenario.