mitchnick Posted Saturday at 10:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:17 PM 3 minutes ago, Ji said: So we went from Feb 9 to Feb 15 in one run lol. After Feb 20 we all start to lose interest as average high climbs to 50 Tough hobby, ain't it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 10:30 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:30 PM 11 minutes ago, Ji said: So we went from Feb 9 to Feb 15 in one run lol. After Feb 20 we all start to lose interest as average high climbs to 50 You are being performative as usual. Our coldest avg high is around 40, depending on exact location. Using that metric, it always takes anomalous cold for it to snow. We have had plenty of significant snowstorms mid Feb into mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 10:34 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:34 PM 2 hours ago, aldie 22 said: Lol you guys are bi polar As the model guidance turns.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 10:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 10:49 PM The fact is the atmosphere is in a Niña background state despite the weak Niña sea surface temps. Under sea temp anomalies are at -5C. Add to that currently a strong easterly wind burst (typical Nina) in a typically crummy Niña month of February, and I am not surprised to see the SER holding on. Modeling just jumped the gun wiping it out. We'll just have to wait to see if and when a better pattern returns. It should, but nothing is guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted Saturday at 11:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:00 PM 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: As the model guidance turns.. The difference between reading this morning and then afternoon is a riot 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 11:06 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:06 PM 52 minutes ago, Ji said: So we went from Feb 9 to Feb 15 in one run lol. After Feb 20 we all start to lose interest as average high climbs to 50 I never said I thought the real flip was coming that soon. You know guidance usually rushes things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 11:08 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:08 PM Where has chuck been? He ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 11:16 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:16 PM 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where has chuck been? He ok? He posted in the La Nina thread not too many days ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Saturday at 11:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:42 PM Where has chuck been? He ok? He only post when it’s warm so it’s a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 11:44 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:44 PM 2 minutes ago, Ji said: He only post when it’s warm so it’s a good sign -pna 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted yesterday at 12:11 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:11 AM 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: -pna 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted yesterday at 12:20 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:20 AM 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Surprisingly, surface temps past day 10 aren't as warm as that map would suggest fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted yesterday at 12:24 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:24 AM Just now, mitchnick said: Surprisingly, surface temps past day 10 aren't as warm as that map would suggest fwiw. I know I am just having a little fun with the Chuck -PNA thing. Some folks take this shit too seriously. Chill a little. Weather will happen. Fun to track and try to figure it out, regardless of the outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted yesterday at 12:45 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:45 AM I know I am just having a little fun with the Chuck -PNA thing. Some folks take this shit too seriously. Chill a little. Weather will happen. Fun to track and try to figure it out, regardless of the outcome.It’s not fun to lose the first half ofFebruary lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted yesterday at 12:45 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:45 AM Is there a website I can easily figure out how many hours we have been above freezing and below freezing since January 1? For instance: How many hours above freezing vs. below freezing at DCA and IAD Number of hours below freezing in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted yesterday at 01:04 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:04 AM So with the pattern change discussion, how likely is it that it gets can kicked? I know the pattern is different but I remember long range discussion in the CWG during 16-17 and the people there stressed that we shouldn’t discount February, as it was the snowiest month historically and President’s Day has been known for its large storms. That strung us along for the front half of February 2017 but then reality came barging in on the 14th: https://archive.ph/YJ37f Sure enough instead of a back loaded storm season President’s Day had highs around 70. How do we know this doesn’t happen again this year too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted yesterday at 01:08 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:08 AM 3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So with the pattern change discussion, how likely is it that it gets can kicked? I know the pattern is different but I remember long range discussion in the CWG during 16-17 and the people there stressed that we shouldn’t discount February, as it was the snowiest month historically and President’s Day has been known for its large storms. That strung us along for the front half of February 2017 but then reality came barging in on the 14th: https://archive.ph/YJ37f Sure enough instead of a back loaded storm season President’s Day had highs around 70. How do we know this doesn’t happen again this year too? We don’t. The end. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted yesterday at 01:26 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:26 AM 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The GFS appears to be firmly in the camp of a longer tour through the bad phases of the MJO. May be contributing to that enhanced SER look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted yesterday at 02:02 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:02 AM 56 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So with the pattern change discussion, how likely is it that it gets can kicked? I know the pattern is different but I remember long range discussion in the CWG during 16-17 and the people there stressed that we shouldn’t discount February, as it was the snowiest month historically and President’s Day has been known for its large storms. That strung us along for the front half of February 2017 but then reality came barging in on the 14th: https://archive.ph/YJ37f Sure enough instead of a back loaded storm season President’s Day had highs around 70. How do we know this doesn’t happen again this year too? We need JB to weigh in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted yesterday at 02:28 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:28 AM 1 hour ago, Ji said: It’s not fun to lose the first half of February lol Feb is a week away. We haven't lost anything yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted yesterday at 02:37 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:37 AM I'm going to enjoy the mild weather over the next 4 days. Looking forward to washing the cruddy jeep tomorrow. Cold will return by the end of the week, then be variable for a bit. Just have to wait and see beyond that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted yesterday at 02:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:48 AM 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: Feb is a week away. We haven't lost anything yet. February 3rd is the last entry on this. That kind of warmth takes a bit to undo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted yesterday at 02:50 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:50 AM Where is mitchnickThe Ai seems worthless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted yesterday at 02:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:54 AM 3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: February 3rd is the last entry on this. That kind of warmth takes a bit to undo. Seeing as we've been cold all this time I'm not sure it's the same as when we've had like 2-3 weeks of pac firehouse or something like that. May not take as long to turn cold again once it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted yesterday at 02:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:54 AM I wonder if the outcome for next weekend might be etched in stone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted yesterday at 03:25 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:25 AM I wonder if the outcome for next weekend might be etched in stoneThe Ai and OP differences are pretty big for this range . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted yesterday at 03:25 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:25 AM I wonder if the outcome for next weekend might be etched in stoneThe Ai and OP differences are pretty big for this range . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted yesterday at 03:29 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:29 AM The Ai and OP differences are pretty big for this range .I think cape is talking about the big differences even between the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted yesterday at 03:34 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:34 AM I think cape is talking about the big differences even between the op Yeah I know. I need to reup weatherbell so I’ve been out of loop. End of that 18z euro run that cape just posted looks a bit interesting. Can someone post H5 vorticity? It almost looks like that confluence might be able to dive farther south in time. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted yesterday at 03:43 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:43 AM 00z icon with went the flatter look as well. Not that it matters around out parts, but looks like an ice event for interior Pa and maybe W MD . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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