January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month

[gopper]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

As advertised stretched but still damn cold. Probably not a significant disruption. I honestly don't pay much attention to the strat stuff anymore. Too disconnected from where actual weather occurs.

Eggplant cold!  Better than Avocado cold?

[frd]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

As advertised stretched but still damn cold. Probably not a significant disruption. I honestly don't pay much attention to the strat stuff anymore. Too disconnected from where actual weather occurs.

I imagine that configuration helps guide colder air towards our area, and may have a role with the PV being on our side of the NH. 

I have not heard of any SSW events, but we do not need them the way the Pac has been cooperating. 

 

[cbmclean]

Just now, frd said:

I imagine that configuration helps guide colder air towards our area, and may have a role with the PV being on our side of the NH. 

I have not heard of any SSW events, but we do not need them the way the Pac has been cooperating. 

 

The 10 HP winds are actually very strong this year or so I have heard, so no SSWs in the offing.  As many have observed they are a crapshoot at best and absolutely undesirable with a good longwave pattern.  

[mitchnick]

12z Gem won't look like the 0z unfortunately. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12z Gem won't look like the 0z unfortunately. 

Yeah it made a move in the wrong direction out west.

[Dabuckeyes]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12z Gem won't look like the 0z unfortunately. 

In honor of the legend…

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12z Gem won't look like the 0z unfortunately. 

Re-cancel?

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

.

People that were honking about a warm up have a rude awakening coming.

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Re-cancel?

It was always a risky proposition if the southwestern vortex came eastward all at once. It's part of a block in the atmosphere and as it breaks down that energy can escape. An amplified upstream ridge and deep trough shifting eastward phases some energy in as it releases it, and that tends to lift it northward.

Previous run maintained some spacing between the digging trough and the sw UL, so less interaction and lifting. Just kicked it eastward.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

People that were honking about a warm up have a rude awakening coming.

Maybe, but keep in mind that's a strat chart and not what's necessarily going on at the trop level. Would still think seeing some of the height amomalies depicted that would couple down to the trop.

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But winters over…

Maybe 2014 is the best analog in terms of general pattern evolution. We aren’t getting the same snow results so far because the storm track this year has been more varied so no one area is getting targeted over and over. 
 

But in terms of temps and where the cold is centered we did have a relax around Feb 1 that year. I remember it being in the 50s just before the Super Bowl that year up in PA where I was.  That season we also never got truly warm when the mjo left the cold phases after January, just relaxed a bit then went back into the freezer later Feb through March when things cycled back again. 

It ain’t over till  the fat mongol sings 

[clskinsfan]

37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Maybe, but keep in mind that's a strat chart and not what's necessarily going on at the trop level. Would still think seeing some of the height amomalies depicted that would couple down to the trop.

Absolutely. That is straight out of Siberia cross polar love. 

[Terpeast]

Just took a quick look at the ens, it looks like we’ll have a NN week up to Jan 31, but dry. Then a mild first week of Feb, and then likely cold again after feb 6-7 when things might get interesting. By the first week of feb we should be tracking something. 

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Just took a quick look at the ens, it looks like we’ll have a NN week up to Jan 31, but dry. Then a mild first week of Feb, and then likely cold again after feb 6-7 when things might get interesting. By the first week of feb we should be tracking something. 

I thought next week was mild…so week after is straight warm.  

[DarkSharkWX]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But winters over…

Maybe 2014 is the best analog in terms of general pattern evolution. We aren’t getting the same snow results so far because the storm track this year has been more varied so no one area is getting targeted over and over. 
 

But in terms of temps and where the cold is centered we did have a relax around Feb 1 that year. I remember it being in the 50s just before the Super Bowl that year up in PA where I was.  That season we also never got truly warm when the mjo left the cold phases after January, just relaxed a bit then went back into the freezer later Feb through March when things cycled back again. 

is it? this lowk reminds me more of an 80s winter, altho the upcoming progression is undeniably very 2014

like cold east but dry north and south, hasn't been any good nor'easters(so far atl) for the rest of the ma/ne corridor

[mitchnick]

Looks like the Gefs idea from last night on the more persistent SER has prevailed over the Eps and Geps, at least at 12z.

[bncho]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looks like the Gefs idea from last night on the more persistent SER has prevailed over the Eps and Geps, at least at 12z.

might just be noise but its something to watch

[Terpeast]

Western ridging trending stronger at 360 va previous runs. Still need to keep an eye on the AK ridge and how that also trends. Looks to me the SE ridge end of run is more transient for now

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Western ridging trending stronger at 360 va previous runs. Still need to keep an eye on the AK ridge and how that also trends. Looks to me the SE ridge end of run is more transient for now

Ugliest on the Geps and it was suppressed at 0z with decent BN temps vs AN at 12z. Sometimes I  just want to shake the mainframes on which the ensembles run until it lights up with the word "tilt."

[Blizzard of 93]

12z EPS at day 15 has more ridging along the east coast, but has nice ridging in Alaska that drives cold air into most of the country.

[cbmclean]

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Western ridging trending stronger at 360 va previous runs. Still need to keep an eye on the AK ridge and how that also trends. Looks to me the SE ridge end of run is more transient for now

I would call it more less troughing in the west.  Still I'd rather have it go that way than the other.

I tried to embed a trend GIF but it wouldn't work for me.  I've seen people do it before.  How do you do it?

 

 

[Terpeast]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Ugliest on the Geps and it was suppressed at 0z with decent BN temps vs AN at 12z. Sometimes I  just want to shake the mainframes on which the ensembles run until it lights up with the word "tilt."

With such big changes, its obvious the models are flip flopping. Weeklies don’t look all that great, but with the boundary closeby and the PV on our side of the globe, it doesn’t take big changes to bring us enough cold for snow. 

Best to watch trends over 4-8 model cycles than the shifts of each cycle. 

[aldie 22]

Lol you guys are bi polar

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Lol you guys are bi polar

Nah, nobody cares what happens at the South Pole.

[midatlanticweather]

[Weather Will]

10 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Looks a lot better than GEFS.

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Ensembles hot off the presses.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202501250000

I would add that some believe Gefs are better for MJO, but nothing's in stone on that.

[psuhoffman]

From now until about Feb 15 it’s probably going to be a little tougher to get cold than it’s been so far this winter. There are conflicting signals but there is more forcing in the MC and western pac than we want. But the pattern looks far from hopeless. 
 

@mitchnick I think the eps was rushing things and will likely continue to delay some. But by day 15 you can see the inception of the real flip back cold. The wpo and epo are flipping. The AO never went that positive and is going negative again. With the mjo in 7 then I do expect some SER. But even so any warmth is living on borrowed time by Feb 8 if that progression is close to accurate. Cold is loading and with that pacific it’s going to come east, and once the mjo gets back to 8…we’re probably going back into the freezer. This isn’t one of those years where there is no cold to work with. 
 

I would be shocked if we’re done with snow. 

[stormy]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

From now until about Feb 15 it’s probably going to be a little tougher to get cold than it’s been so far this winter. There are conflicting signals but there is more forcing in the MC and western pac than we want. But the pattern looks far from hopeless. 
 

@mitchnick I think the eps was rushing things and will likely continue to delay some. But by day 15 you can see the inception of the real flip back cold. The wpo and epo are flipping. The AO never went that positive and is going negative again. With the mjo in 7 then I do expect some SER. But even so any warmth is living on borrowed time by Feb 8 if that progression is close to accurate. Cold is loading and with that pacific it’s going to come east, and once the mjo gets back to 8…we’re probably going back into the freezer. This isn’t one of those years where there is no cold to work with. 
 

I would be shocked if we’re done with snow. 

Does the moderate to severe drought enter into your considerations?

A small amount of qp can be significant with snow depending on ratios, but I would like to have your opinion.

[Ji]

From now until about Feb 15 it’s probably going to be a little tougher to get cold than it’s been so far this winter. There are conflicting signals but there is more forcing in the MC and western pac than we want. But the pattern looks far from hopeless. 
 
[mention=821]mitchnick[/mention] I think the eps was rushing things and will likely continue to delay some. But by day 15 you can see the inception of the real flip back cold. The wpo and epo are flipping. The AO never went that positive and is going negative again. With the mjo in 7 then I do expect some SER. But even so any warmth is living on borrowed time by Feb 8 if that progression is close to accurate. Cold is loading and with that pacific it’s going to come east, and once the mjo gets back to 8…we’re probably going back into the freezer. This isn’t one of those years where there is no cold to work with. 
 
I would be shocked if we’re done with snow. 

So we went from Feb 9 to Feb 15 in one run lol. After Feb 20 we all start to lose interest as average high climbs to 50