January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month

[mitchnick]

I was thinking the same thing, but was an experienced enough of a  not to post it!  

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Happy Anniversay to those who celebrate. Can't believe it has been a quarter century!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2000_North_American_blizzard

I remember watching the models 48 hours prior. I  believe we had the MRF, it's sister "high res" avn that went to 72(?), the ETA to 48, and the NGM. All models iirc had a low racing ENE off the GA/SC Coast. I remember particularly seeing the ETA the morning of the 24th had the low stronger, much stronger, but was still well ots. Then 12z on the 24th closer. Then next run closer and a coastal grazing.

No model I dont think had it until it happened. We were on mirc #neweather chat....me, randy iirc, Marcus, ian....we were watching the radar at 0z and saying it didn't match the models. And it was on!!

What a memorable event! Had around a foot where I'm at but we sleeted and dry slotted as it exploded and occluded.

I was on ne.weather too. Had over 14" at BWI

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

This is looking like a fast flip back to cold.  Wasn’t following too closely but I saw people posting about relying on March snowfall etc etc so I thought maybe it was the shut the blinds. And the warm up looks pretty muted.  Didn’t realize we’d be back in time for our peak climo. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Good news on the longer range at day 15 on the 0z EPS.

The SE ridge gets squashed.

[mitchnick]

6z AI further north. Hits NYC north.

[aldie 22]

Waiting on Bristow to do a drive by saying the 6z gfs shows upper 60s in February 

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, Roger Ramjet said:

That's what people said when they played the Lions.

Detroits winter was never likely to go well because they had no defense against warm intrusions due to significant losses in pressure gradients. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good news on the longer range at day 15 on the 0z EPS.

The SE ridge gets squashed.

I support this look

[psuhoffman]

Too bad winters over 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Too bad winters over 

And that’s based on 91/20 climo too.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Colder pattern gets established the first week of Feb with EPO going negative. Thermal boundary should be pressing southeast with potential for waves riding along it in the Feb 6-9 period. Looks pretty cold for the central/eastern US going forward.

 

 

 

But winters over…

Maybe 2014 is the best analog in terms of general pattern evolution. We aren’t getting the same snow results so far because the storm track this year has been more varied so no one area is getting targeted over and over. 
 

But in terms of temps and where the cold is centered we did have a relax around Feb 1 that year. I remember it being in the 50s just before the Super Bowl that year up in PA where I was.  That season we also never got truly warm when the mjo left the cold phases after January, just relaxed a bit then went back into the freezer later Feb through March when things cycled back again. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But winters over…

Maybe 2014 is the best analog in terms of general pattern evolution. We aren’t getting the same snow results so far because the storm track this year has been more varied so no one area is getting targeted over and over. 
 

But in terms of temps and where the cold is centered we did have a relax around Feb 1 that year. I remember it being in the 50s just before the Super Bowl that year up in PA where I was.  That season we also never got truly warm when the mjo left the cold phases after January, just relaxed a bit then went back into the freezer later Feb through March when things cycled back again. 

Going in, 2014 was probably the best possible outcome for this winter. So far it's pretty close. Looks like we are shifting back into a cold period early to mid Feb after a modest milder period. Ensembles are hinting at multiple waves propagating along the thermal boundary, which should be in an increasingly more favorable location for our region as we get into the second week of Feb.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Happy Anniversay to those who celebrate. Can't believe it has been a quarter century!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2000_North_American_blizzard

I remember watching the models 48 hours prior. I  believe we had the MRF, it's sister "high res" avn that went to 72(?), the ETA to 48, and the NGM. All models iirc had a low racing ENE off the GA/SC Coast. I remember particularly seeing the ETA the morning of the 24th had the low stronger, much stronger, but was still well ots. Then 12z on the 24th closer. Then next run closer and a coastal grazing.

No model I dont think had it until it happened. We were on mirc #neweather chat....me, randy iirc, Marcus, ian....we were watching the radar at 0z and saying it didn't match the models. And it was on!!

What a memorable event! Had around a foot where I'm at but we sleeted and dry slotted as it exploded and occluded.

I wasn't here for that storm (moved to the DC area in mid-2001), but I certainly heard a fair bit about it.  Sounds like it was great, a true reverse-bust!!  I think that's when the Eta model was still fairly new, and something about the 18Z cycle the day before suddenly showed the mid-Atlantic and northeast getting hammered, when pretty much all other available guidance still had the low moving out to sea (or with little effect here).  I think the Eta actually had 4 cycles back then, not sure, but it was one of the later cycles the day before.  I also heard there were no warnings or anything until late, and people were watching the 11PM news the night before stunned that a major snowstorm was coming!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But winters over…

Maybe 2014 is the best analog in terms of general pattern evolution. We aren’t getting the same snow results so far because the storm track this year has been more varied so no one area is getting targeted over and over. 
 

But in terms of temps and where the cold is centered we did have a relax around Feb 1 that year. I remember it being in the 50s just before the Super Bowl that year up in PA where I was.  That season we also never got truly warm when the mjo left the cold phases after January, just relaxed a bit then went back into the freezer later Feb through March when things cycled back again. 

2013-14 was amazing simply because it was essentially wall-to-wall for the most part.  I do recall it getting a bit warmer around the end of January into early February, but even then I think we were already looking ahead.  That's the month that gave us our "mini-HECS" around mid-February...big thump of snow to some ice, then drizzle much of the day, followed by a burst of snow with the ULL later.  I was out in the middle of the night for a Jebwalk, it was just absolutely puking snow then.  We got a couple of more small events a bit later in the month, and then March was incredible for snow (and cold)!

2015 was kind of similar, but there wasn't much of anything until mid-February.  That February was a lot colder than 2014 (even brutally cold) especially from around Valentine's Day onward.  Got a couple or three good moderate snows.  That extended into early March when we got another solid event around the 5th after some ice a couple of days prior.  A very concentrated 4-5 week period of winter.

[BristowWx]

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Too bad winters over 

Fare thee well winter…we hardly knew ye

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Happy Anniversay to those who celebrate. Can't believe it has been a quarter century!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2000_North_American_blizzard

I remember watching the models 48 hours prior. I  believe we had the MRF, it's sister "high res" avn that went to 72(?), the ETA to 48, and the NGM. All models iirc had a low racing ENE off the GA/SC Coast. I remember particularly seeing the ETA the morning of the 24th had the low stronger, much stronger, but was still well ots. Then 12z on the 24th closer. Then next run closer and a coastal grazing.

No model I dont think had it until it happened. We were on mirc #neweather chat....me, randy iirc, Marcus, ian....we were watching the radar at 0z and saying it didn't match the models. And it was on!!

What a memorable event! Had around a foot where I'm at but we sleeted and dry slotted as it exploded and occluded.

That event is fondly remembered in my sub for obvious reasons.

[CAPE]

Worth noting the 6z GEFS isnt as cold as the EPS and CMC ens, with a less pronounced EPO ridge, and mean trough centered further west. Leaves a flat SE ridge on the ens mean. Still a very workable pattern with slightly colder than avg temps in the east. The 0z run had kind of an ambiguous h5 look but was somewhat colder for the east. Not digging into the members but probably more spread wrt the pattern evolution on the GEFS.

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Worth noting the 6z GEFS isnt as cold as the EPS and CMC ens, with a less pronounced EPO ridge, and mean trough centered further west. Leaves a flat SE ridge on the ens mean. Still a very workable pattern with slightly colder than avg temps in the east. The 0z run had kind of an ambiguous h5 look but was somewhat colder for the east. Not digging into the members but probably more spread wrt the pattern evolution on the GEFS.

Gfs is slower with the mjo and is still in 6 when euro has it half way through 7 by then. 

[mitchnick]

You could say the AI agrees with the Eps this run.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I wasn't here for that storm (moved to the DC area in mid-2001), but I certainly heard a fair bit about it.  Sounds like it was great, a true reverse-bust!!  I think that's when the Eta model was still fairly new, and something about the 18Z cycle the day before suddenly showed the mid-Atlantic and northeast getting hammered, when pretty much all other available guidance still had the low moving out to sea (or with little effect here).  I think the Eta actually had 4 cycles back then, not sure, but it was one of the later cycles the day before.  I also heard there were no warnings or anything until late, and people were watching the 11PM news the night before stunned that a major snowstorm was coming!

Yeah 18z on the 24th, at least up this way, was the one where it grazes NJ. Down there if may have picked up on the shift a couple cycles earlier. No model really ever showed a direct hit up this way iirc.

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

You could say the AI agrees with the Eps this run.

I'm gonna guess a map like that if accurate in Feb is bitterly cold.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

50 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Worth noting the 6z GEFS isnt as cold as the EPS and CMC ens, with a less pronounced EPO ridge, and mean trough centered further west. Leaves a flat SE ridge on the ens mean. Still a very workable pattern with slightly colder than avg temps in the east. The 0z run had kind of an ambiguous h5 look but was somewhat colder for the east. Not digging into the members but probably more spread wrt the pattern evolution on the GEFS.

If we get the cold press up top I don't mind a flat SER at all. Overunning swf pattern ftw.

A blend of eps cold and gefs flat ser would work just fine.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Dang, im going to need to get my snowblower, shovel, and salt back out of storage. I had packed it away last night after seeing the winter cancel posts yesterday from some of y'all 

[Heisy]

.

[IUsedToHateCold]

The cold will continue until morale improves

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, Heisy said:

.

No wonder the epo ridge at 500mb has been semi-constant all winter when there are pos anomalies in that region all the way to 67,000 feet. Geez.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

No wonder the epo ridge at 500mb has been semi-constant all winter when there are pos anomalies in that region all the way to 67,000 feet. Geez.

Reminds me I need to pick up some avocados today. Gotta have Guac for tomorrow.

[WxUSAF]

I’ve seen nothing about the AI models and their strat forecasts. Do they have any skill vs traditional guidance?

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Reminds me I need to pick up some avocados today. Gotta have Guac for tomorrow.

Yeah, that look way up there would probably have the TPV on the wobble. No lack of cold air source.

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yeah, that look way up there would probably have the TPV on the wobble. No lack of cold air source.

As advertised stretched but still damn cold. Probably not a significant disruption. I honestly don't pay much attention to the strat stuff anymore. Too disconnected from where actual weather occurs.