January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

January medium range daffodil discussion lol.

If we get back to a workable pattern for the last 2 weeks of February and first week of March it can be fun.  By the second week of March I prefer to just get on to the cherry blossoms. 

[WEATHER53]

19 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

lol, barring consistent extreme record breaking warmth in the next 7-10 days...I doubt it.

Soil temperatures now compared to the past two years are vastly (20 degrees?) cooler.

 

Even DCA has only had 3 nighttime lows above freezing. And two of those were the 1st and 2nd.

I think BWI has one 50+ and IAD none

[mitchnick]

Idk what the EPS will show, but I can't say I have a problem with what was occurring around the Pole and the Pacific at the end of the Euro operational. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I think BWI has one 50+ and IAD none

At this point last year and in 2023 I already had tulip leaves starting to poke out of the ground.

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

La Nina was a late bloomer this year. ENSO subsurface cold didn't get going until late December. Now it's impacting the Pacific pattern in February, and probably March.. It was neutral in Oct-Nov.

I actually think this is a good thing for our prospects Late Feb into March.  The years where the Nina was fading towards neutral early actually had a lower frequency of snow/cold in March.  I think the reason is as the wavelengths shorten the pacific ridge actually becomes less problematic.  In years where the Nina background faded we had a lower chance of getting a snowstorm late in the season.   

[WesternFringe]

55 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Here's a pic of a small field of snowdrops in my neighbor's yard in zip code 20910 (downtown Silver Spring and surrounding nhoods).  Date Stamp: 2/4/24.  I have another pic of crocuses from 2/2/23.  Barring very cold conditions in the next 7-10 days, I will be able to find a bunch of flowers like these in my nhood

 

 

44 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Earliest daffodils in my neighborhood (almost full sun all day) and some forsythias should be popping here soon enough...

I get pictures nearly every year of those two types of flowers in the snow.  Hopefully this year is typical and I see that again soon!

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Idk what the EPS will show, but I can't say I have a problem with what was occurring around the Pole and the Pacific at the end of the Euro operational. 

The GFS and Euro have been showing this kind of thing randomly on about half their runs late in the period...I think it is where we are heading, cold enso seasons that had a period of extreme blocking earlier in winter typically had another late.  But I think the operationals are rushing it probably, I expect us to get there eventually but probably later in Feb.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I actually think this is a good thing for our prospects Late Feb into March.  The years where the Nina was fading towards neutral early actually had a lower frequency of snow/cold in March.  I think the reason is as the wavelengths shorten the pacific ridge actually becomes less problematic.  In years where the Nina background faded we had a lower chance of getting a snowstorm late in the season.   

I always think La Nina being a cold weather event isn't as bad as it's made out to be.. later in the Winter -PNA does correlate with -NAO a bit more, too. I don't think it's enough data though where you have neutral trumping. Do fading El Nino's to Neutral do better late Winter snow vs sustained El Nino's?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The GFS and Euro have been showing this kind of thing randomly on about half their runs late in the period...I think it is where we are heading, cold enso seasons that had a period of extreme blocking earlier in winter typically had another late.  But I think the operationals are rushing it probably, I expect us to get there eventually but probably later in Feb.  

For whatever reason, the Pacific -PNA pattern has been a ridiculous consistency since 2018 in the late Winter (Feb-March). I'm curious to see if that pattern holds or breaks this year... all else neutral, I would say -PNA would prevail. A different pattern would be impressive, it would mean something else is occurring globally right now. 

[WesternFringe]

Just saying hopefully I see this soon

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The GFS and Euro have been showing this kind of thing randomly on about half their runs late in the period...I think it is where we are heading, cold enso seasons that had a period of extreme blocking earlier in winter typically had another late.  But I think the operationals are rushing it probably, I expect us to get there eventually but probably later in Feb.  

When is that last time we actually got something decent in the first 3 weeks of February? Feels like every year the last 10 years we end up punting it away when it used to be in the prime Jan 15th-PD window.

That being said...not that this is surprising given nina Febs, but still having to waste that part of the window the last decade has been annoying.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I always think La Nina being a cold weather event isn't as bad as it's made out to be.. later in the Winter -PNA does correlate with -NAO a bit more, too. I don't think it's enough data though where you have neutral trumping. Do fading El Nino's to Neutral do better late Winter snow vs sustained El Nino's?

I've tried to isolate that but warm enso is less consistent.  I think the issue is in general el nino's tend to get worse in March v Feb.  If you look at the snowfall splits by week we have a HUGE spike in snowfall mean in Jan/Feb then it decreases in early March (compared to the normal climo drop).  The years a warm enso had a big march coincided with crazy blocking and that can override a lot in March as it becomes more impactful with shorter wavelengths.  It's a lot easier to overcome the -PNA with a -NAO in March.  

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

For whatever reason, the Pacific -PNA pattern has been a ridiculous consistency since 2018 in the late Winter (Feb-March). I'm curious to see if that pattern holds or breaks this year... all else neutral, I would say -PNA would prevail. A different pattern would be impressive, it would mean something else is occurring globally right now. 

I don't doubt we fight some -PNA coming up... but with the PDO not as hostile as recent years I wonder if its more muted.  I also think once we get to the last week of Feb and March if we get another AO/NAO drop we can overcome the -PNA easier that time of year.  It's why Ninas often end with a snowy/cold period after a warm first 20 days of Feb.  

[Interstate]

I think it is time for the Feb medium/long range thread. Nothing left in January. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don't doubt we fight some -PNA coming up... but with the PDO not as hostile as recent years I wonder if its more muted.  I also think once we get to the last week of Feb and March if we get another AO/NAO drop we can overcome the -PNA easier that time of year.  It's why Ninas often end with a snowy/cold period after a warm first 20 days of Feb.  

+NAO is kind of hard to break right now with strong +QBO/Weak Nina. It's holding strong through the next 15 days, and maybe beyond. Cold 10mb has been a real strong factor this Winter. Recently in the last few years, our late Winter -NAO's have happened with Stratospheric warmings.. it will be interesting to see if we can produce the same result without that strong variable this year, if this does continue to happen (cold 10mb vortex 0.5 correlated to +QBO/Nina). 

[Warm Nose]

58 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I think it is time for the Feb medium/long range thread. Nothing left in January. 

Agree, time to put a stake in January ... 

[stormtracker]