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January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month


mappy
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  On 1/27/2025 at 4:50 PM, Heisy said:

It’s kind of funny, if I woke up from a coma and you showed me just this map I’d think a major snowstorm was coming… just a bad airmass going in and low gets squashed

2e714ab0d0925fb62f756f95cfd394e1.jpg


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Yea, we've had more miserable storm tracks, but looks like the northern jet is too far north...almost split flow-like, imo.

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  On 1/27/2025 at 4:46 PM, winter_warlock said:

Crocuses and snowdrops?? How warm do u think it's gonna get ?? lol let's not get carried away lol

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image.thumb.jpeg.979d06b9c18cf38448395850b62585bb.jpeg

Here's a pic of a small field of snowdrops in my neighbor's yard in zip code 20910 (downtown Silver Spring and surrounding nhoods).  Date Stamp: 2/4/24.  I have another pic of crocuses from 2/2/23.  Barring very cold conditions in the next 7-10 days, I will be able to find a bunch of flowers like these in my nhood

 

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  On 1/27/2025 at 5:18 PM, mattie g said:

It better not f'ing torch next Thursday-Sunday. I'm not in the mood for spring conditions at Wisp!

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Was just out in Swanton this weekend...don't worry they'll have plenty of snow.  I was snowshoeing on our property and most areas had two feet of powder on the ground.  Though I just looked and it seems there's a good chance of rain out there Saturday.   That would stink...but there will be snow...fwiw.  

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So a warm period the first week of Feb looks highly likely barring some major modeling collapse (wouldn't it be nice if the warm pattern collapsed like last years epic pattern collapsed?)  Looks like the crystal ball is very murky after that.  As @psuhoffman has pointed out, historical analogs say a flip back to cold would be expected by the end of February into March.  The real question as I see it is what happens the period of say Feb 10 - 24.     

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  On 1/27/2025 at 5:56 PM, IronTy said:

Was just out in Swanton this weekend...don't worry they'll have plenty of snow.  I was snowshoeing on our property and most areas had two feet of powder on the ground.  Though I just looked and it seems there's a good chance of rain out there Saturday.   That would stink...but there will be snow...fwiw.  

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I hear ya. I'm not worried about the base, and a couple mild days won't bother me, but I just don't want a torch and rain while we're there!

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  On 1/27/2025 at 2:25 PM, BristowWx said:

I got a legit warning event, days of snow cover, and BN temps.  Even a morning low of 2 at my house.  I really can't complain if things collapse from here...but I think we'll get another fun period before spring

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we had snow on the ground (still do some) for 3 weeks - not too shabby.

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  On 1/27/2025 at 5:45 PM, Paleocene said:

Here's a pic of a small field of snowdrops in my neighbor's yard in zip code 20910 (downtown Silver Spring and surrounding nhoods).  Date Stamp: 2/4/24.  I have another pic of crocuses from 2/2/23.  Barring very cold conditions in the next 7-10 days, I will be able to find a bunch of flowers like these in my nhood

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lol, barring consistent extreme record breaking warmth in the next 7-10 days...I doubt it.

Soil temperatures now compared to the past two years are vastly (20 degrees?) cooler.

 

Even DCA has only had 3 nighttime lows above freezing. And two of those were the 1st and 2nd.

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  On 1/27/2025 at 6:10 PM, Its a Breeze said:

lol, barring consistent extreme record breaking warmth in the next 7-10 days...I doubt it.

Soil temperatures now compared to the past two years are vastly (20 degrees?) cooler.

 

Even DCA has only had 3 nighttime lows above freezing. And two of those were the 1st and 2nd.

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Alright. I'm on the hunt. Nothing beats the power of the UHI. I will find a snowdrop by 10 days from now and post it here by or before 2/6/25

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  On 1/27/2025 at 5:45 PM, Paleocene said:

image.thumb.jpeg.979d06b9c18cf38448395850b62585bb.jpeg

Here's a pic of a small field of snowdrops in my neighbor's yard in zip code 20910 (downtown Silver Spring and surrounding nhoods).  Date Stamp: 2/4/24.  I have another pic of crocuses from 2/2/23.  Barring very cold conditions in the next 7-10 days, I will be able to find a bunch of flowers like these in my nhood

 

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2/2/24: That was a week after an 80 degree day.

2/2/23: That was following a +9 temp January.

Neither of these are the case this year.

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