mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 On 1/25/2025 at 10:13 PM, Ji said: So we went from Feb 9 to Feb 15 in one run lol. After Feb 20 we all start to lose interest as average high climbs to 50 Expand Tough hobby, ain't it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 On 1/25/2025 at 10:13 PM, Ji said: So we went from Feb 9 to Feb 15 in one run lol. After Feb 20 we all start to lose interest as average high climbs to 50 Expand You are being performative as usual. Our coldest avg high is around 40, depending on exact location. Using that metric, it always takes anomalous cold for it to snow. We have had plenty of significant snowstorms mid Feb into mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 On 1/25/2025 at 8:08 PM, aldie 22 said: Lol you guys are bi polar Expand As the model guidance turns.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 The fact is the atmosphere is in a Niña background state despite the weak Niña sea surface temps. Under sea temp anomalies are at -5C. Add to that currently a strong easterly wind burst (typical Nina) in a typically crummy Niña month of February, and I am not surprised to see the SER holding on. Modeling just jumped the gun wiping it out. We'll just have to wait to see if and when a better pattern returns. It should, but nothing is guaranteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 On 1/25/2025 at 10:34 PM, CAPE said: As the model guidance turns.. Expand The difference between reading this morning and then afternoon is a riot 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 On 1/25/2025 at 10:13 PM, Ji said: So we went from Feb 9 to Feb 15 in one run lol. After Feb 20 we all start to lose interest as average high climbs to 50 Expand I never said I thought the real flip was coming that soon. You know guidance usually rushes things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 Where has chuck been? He ok? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 On 1/25/2025 at 11:08 PM, psuhoffman said: Where has chuck been? He ok? Expand He posted in the La Nina thread not too many days ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 On 1/25/2025 at 11:08 PM, psuhoffman said: Where has chuck been? He ok? He only post when it’s warm so it’s a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25 Share Posted January 25 On 1/25/2025 at 11:42 PM, Ji said: He only post when it’s warm so it’s a good sign Expand -pna 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/25/2025 at 11:44 PM, psuhoffman said: -pna Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/26/2025 at 12:11 AM, CAPE said: Expand Surprisingly, surface temps past day 10 aren't as warm as that map would suggest fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/26/2025 at 12:20 AM, mitchnick said: Surprisingly, surface temps past day 10 aren't as warm as that map would suggest fwiw. Expand I know I am just having a little fun with the Chuck -PNA thing. Some folks take this shit too seriously. Chill a little. Weather will happen. Fun to track and try to figure it out, regardless of the outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/26/2025 at 12:24 AM, CAPE said: I know I am just having a little fun with the Chuck -PNA thing. Some folks take this shit too seriously. Chill a little. Weather will happen. Fun to track and try to figure it out, regardless of the outcome.It’s not fun to lose the first half ofFebruary lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Is there a website I can easily figure out how many hours we have been above freezing and below freezing since January 1? For instance: How many hours above freezing vs. below freezing at DCA and IAD Number of hours below freezing in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 So with the pattern change discussion, how likely is it that it gets can kicked? I know the pattern is different but I remember long range discussion in the CWG during 16-17 and the people there stressed that we shouldn’t discount February, as it was the snowiest month historically and President’s Day has been known for its large storms. That strung us along for the front half of February 2017 but then reality came barging in on the 14th: https://archive.ph/YJ37f Sure enough instead of a back loaded storm season President’s Day had highs around 70. How do we know this doesn’t happen again this year too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/26/2025 at 1:04 AM, JenkinsJinkies said: So with the pattern change discussion, how likely is it that it gets can kicked? I know the pattern is different but I remember long range discussion in the CWG during 16-17 and the people there stressed that we shouldn’t discount February, as it was the snowiest month historically and President’s Day has been known for its large storms. That strung us along for the front half of February 2017 but then reality came barging in on the 14th: https://archive.ph/YJ37f Sure enough instead of a back loaded storm season President’s Day had highs around 70. How do we know this doesn’t happen again this year too? Expand We don’t. The end. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/26/2025 at 12:11 AM, CAPE said: Expand The GFS appears to be firmly in the camp of a longer tour through the bad phases of the MJO. May be contributing to that enhanced SER look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/26/2025 at 1:04 AM, JenkinsJinkies said: So with the pattern change discussion, how likely is it that it gets can kicked? I know the pattern is different but I remember long range discussion in the CWG during 16-17 and the people there stressed that we shouldn’t discount February, as it was the snowiest month historically and President’s Day has been known for its large storms. That strung us along for the front half of February 2017 but then reality came barging in on the 14th: https://archive.ph/YJ37f Sure enough instead of a back loaded storm season President’s Day had highs around 70. How do we know this doesn’t happen again this year too? Expand We need JB to weigh in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/26/2025 at 12:45 AM, Ji said: It’s not fun to lose the first half of February lol Expand Feb is a week away. We haven't lost anything yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I'm going to enjoy the mild weather over the next 4 days. Looking forward to washing the cruddy jeep tomorrow. Cold will return by the end of the week, then be variable for a bit. Just have to wait and see beyond that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/26/2025 at 2:28 AM, CAPE said: Feb is a week away. We haven't lost anything yet. Expand February 3rd is the last entry on this. That kind of warmth takes a bit to undo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Where is mitchnickThe Ai seems worthless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/26/2025 at 2:48 AM, JenkinsJinkies said: February 3rd is the last entry on this. That kind of warmth takes a bit to undo. Expand Seeing as we've been cold all this time I'm not sure it's the same as when we've had like 2-3 weeks of pac firehouse or something like that. May not take as long to turn cold again once it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I wonder if the outcome for next weekend might be etched in stone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/26/2025 at 2:54 AM, CAPE said: I wonder if the outcome for next weekend might be etched in stoneThe Ai and OP differences are pretty big for this range . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/26/2025 at 2:54 AM, CAPE said: I wonder if the outcome for next weekend might be etched in stoneThe Ai and OP differences are pretty big for this range . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/26/2025 at 3:25 AM, Heisy said: The Ai and OP differences are pretty big for this range .I think cape is talking about the big differences even between the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 On 1/26/2025 at 3:29 AM, Ji said: I think cape is talking about the big differences even between the op Yeah I know. I need to reup weatherbell so I’ve been out of loop. End of that 18z euro run that cape just posted looks a bit interesting. Can someone post H5 vorticity? It almost looks like that confluence might be able to dive farther south in time. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 00z icon with went the flatter look as well. Not that it matters around out parts, but looks like an ice event for interior Pa and maybe W MD . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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