stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 4:56 PM, mitchnick said: Remember, Canadians were the warm models last time and were more right than wrong. Expand Too bad its on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 5:00 PM, stormtracker said: Good thing its on its own Expand FIFY. Not a fan of ice storms, but that’s me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 5:02 PM, Terpeast said: FIFY. Not a fan of ice storms, but that’s me. Expand I just like winter weather. Obv rather have snow. But if we can’t, let’s do ice. When I had to drive for a living, I hated it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 5:05 PM, stormtracker said: I just like winter weather. Obv rather have snow. But if we can’t, let’s do ice. When I had to drive for a living, I hated it. Expand If I can't have all snow, gimme an inch or 2 of snow and then sleet and zr to glaciate it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Sign me up for the apocalyptic ice storm. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Since no one bothered to post the snow portion: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 4:54 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Kinda feels like the GEM often runs too cold with stuff like this... Expand Maybe, but the GFS always erodes cold air damming way too quickly, even at shorter ranges. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1.5 of ice...not sure how often that has verified anywhere. is there a word stronger than crippling for ice storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 5:02 PM, Terpeast said: FIFY. Not a fan of ice storms, but that’s me. Expand Yeah, I've never understood the fascination. I'll take it for the telework day, but that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Last nights EPS apparently was pretty bullish on big ice from this threat next weekend 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 4:54 PM, mitchnick said: Gem total zr Expand @Eskimo Joeis giddy looking at this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 5:32 PM, BristowWx said: 1.5 of ice...not sure how often that has verified anywhere. is there a word stronger than crippling for ice storms? Expand Nobody’s getting that with marginal (31-32) temps. Of course I’m just assuming. Just got off a plane and haven’t looked at any models because the WiFi speed was about 56k modem dial up. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 5:41 PM, stormtracker said: Nobody’s getting that with marginal (31-32) temps. Of course I’m just assuming. Just got on a plane and haven’t looked at any models because the WiFi speed was about 56k modem dial up. Expand There's something faster? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 A few notes about ice storms (like the big ones) - We all know that ice is often a lot less than expected. Heavy rain won't accrete well. Antecedent cold is important for those sick puppies out there hoping for a crippling ice storm. Ex: If we are 31-32 it's probably not going to be a biblical ice storm. But if we have a ton of cold air for a handful of days (or longer) ahead of the storm, those surface temperatures can really lead to a messy ice storm. CAD (as we all know) is underestimated at range many times. I don't believe in "we're due" - but I will say that this year has had legit ice storm potential in my mind with all the Barney cold that we've had. My gut feelings mean nada, but if we were going to have an overperforming ice event...this feels like the year it could happen...and I'm referring not to the tenth to half inch events - but the incredibly damaging 3/4 inch or higher events. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 5:46 PM, Kmlwx said: A few notes about ice storms (like the big ones) - We all know that ice is often a lot less than expected. Heavy rain won't accrete well. Antecedent cold is important for those sick puppies out there hoping for a crippling ice storm. Ex: If we are 31-32 it's probably not going to be a biblical ice storm. But if we have a ton of cold air for a handful of days (or longer) ahead of the storm, those surface temperatures can really lead to a messy ice storm. CAD (as we all know) is underestimated at range many times. I don't believe in "we're due" - but I will say that this year has had legit ice storm potential in my mind with all the Barney cold that we've had. My gut feelings mean nada, but if we were going to have an overperforming ice event...this feels like the year it could happen...and I'm referring not to the tenth to half inch events - but the incredibly damaging 3/4 inch or higher events. Expand 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Odd that thru 276hrs the Gefs has a pretty good snowfall mean of 2-2.5+", as opposed to 1" or less the past few runs. Might be counting sleet as snow, idk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 5:51 PM, mitchnick said: Odd that thru 276hrs the Gefs has a pretty good snowfall mean of 2-2.5+", as opposed to 1" or less the past few runs. Might be counting sleet as snow, idk? Expand It comes mostly from 3 members with pretty big hits between the 2nd and the 4th. Almost nothing on the rest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 6:08 PM, CAPE said: It comes mostly from 3 members with pretty big hits between the 2nd and the 4th. Almost nothing on the rest. Expand Encouraging that there are a few with big hits. I guess that means there weren't any big hits in prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 This Euro run sure dried up, at least thru 330hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 6:16 PM, mitchnick said: This Euro run sure dried up, at least thru 330hrs. Expand Seems like it's kinda shut the blinds for awhile that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 6:16 PM, mitchnick said: This Euro run sure dried up, at least thru 330hrs. Expand This drought is brutal 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 6:28 PM, dailylurker said: This drought is brutal Expand I did think we would be tracking every week...that is not actually the case believe it or not...I hope winter is not a pretty good 3 weeks and done 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 5:32 PM, BristowWx said: 1.5 of ice...not sure how often that has verified anywhere. is there a word stronger than crippling for ice storms? Expand Had 5 inches of freezing rain in Montreal in 1998. It was crippling and destructive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 6:48 PM, peribonca said: Had 5 inches of freezing rain in Montreal in 1998. It was crippling and destructive Expand Thought that was 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 6:16 PM, mitchnick said: This Euro run sure dried up, at least thru 330hrs. Expand Yeah, CMC on some ol’ bullshit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 6:50 PM, psuhoffman said: Thought that was 99 Expand 98... Year I graduated from McGill 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 our best chance at any snow might be that clipper that goes to our north next week...wouldn't be the craziest adjustment I've ever seen to get that south. Not saying its a good shot, just our best shot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 6:53 PM, peribonca said: 98... Year I graduated from McGill Expand Maybe 99 was the one that hit the DC area...I wasn't really affected by either I was at PSU those 2 winters. I love Montreal. There was a cute little Irish pub on Bishop or Crescent St...can't remember which. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 This looks pretty good. not great.... but pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 On 1/24/2025 at 6:59 PM, midatlanticweather said: This looks pretty good. not great.... but pretty good Expand That's more than fine...into phase 7 by Feb 7th heading towards 8. That would time the flip colder to be by Feb 20th or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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