January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

I think that the best-case scenario for our end-of-month threat is a 4-8" I-95 and 8-12" NW, almost like a 20% reduction of Feb 11 2014. Once we get into mid-late Feb, we should see some more chances with the AO/NAO flip.

This winter is seeming like a slightly worse 2013-14. Hopefully we can get the snow in March like we did in March 2014.

You are amazing... I will spend the rest of my life aspiring to get to this level!  To be able to put out a detailed specific snowfall range on a storm 200 hours out is impressive!  I bow down to you sir.  

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

but which normals are they using????? 

Idk but it's median not mean

[bncho]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You are amazing... I will spend the rest of my life aspiring to get to this level!  To be able to put out a detailed specific snowfall range on a storm 200 hours out is impressive!  I bow down to you sir.  

Thank you, I’ll be sure to add 'Professional Storm Predictor' to my resume right next to 'Time Traveler'.

[cbmclean]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

but which normals are they using????? 

The upcoming 2030 - 2060 base period.  -10 F equates to 60 F.

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

Thank you, I’ll be sure to add 'Professional Storm Predictor' to my resume right next to 'Time Traveler'.

Now if it happens like that…legend status for you

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

The upcoming 2030 - 2060 base period.  -10 F equates to 60 F.

Barney won't ever be the same 

[Paleocene]

47 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Damascus received 24", Takoma Park received 5". An incredible snowfall gradient across Montgomery County from that event.

Thanks for the reminder that I was in Takoma Park at that time.

[mitchnick]

A bit of an improvement on the weeklies today from the last few runs, especially the first 2 while weeks in February. Note, however, starting the week of the 17th when the warmer anomalies hit, that we are on the north side of the dotted line most weeks. The dotted lines show the significance level and being on the north side shows less significance than below it. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501230000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502030000

[brooklynwx99]

lmao

[87storms]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

If you ever need a reminder of how much chance plays in all this...

This was one of our least snowy January's

And this was one of our snowiest lol 

Chance is right...monthly anomaly "averages" can be misleading.  All it takes is one timely storm to overcome a less than ideal average height pattern and, of course, untimely shortwaves can ruin a good one.  The challenge is that upcoming patterns are unlikely to turn out the way we want, so comparing something that might happen to something that already did, will add even more overthinking.  I can see why looking at the large scale features (MJO, NAO, etc.) and placing bets on that would be a better game to play than just hoping for a proposed H5 pattern to deliver (since that's still a moving target beyond 7-10 days).

I'm brainstorming...mostly just taking a break from doing my weekly status report lol.

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Thank you, I’ll be sure to add 'Professional Storm Predictor' to my resume right next to 'Time Traveler'.

How many years until you get to high school?. 

[CAPE]

Latest Euro Weeklies for the week beyond the end of the 0z ens run. This is actually a decently cold look with cold air delivery mechanism between the ridge over AK and the TPV. Plus the thermal boundary is very close by for shortwaves to traverse.

[bncho]

GFS is a poor run overall, unless you include 384 hr fantasy stuff.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS is a poor run overall, unless you include 384 hr fantasy stuff.

I know we'll never see that blocking over the Poke as depicted at the end of the 18z run, but man is that perty.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

17 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS is a poor run overall, unless you include 384 hr fantasy stuff.

It's actually really not that bad in my opinion.  And it's not just 384-h fantasy stuff.  Just giving a cursory look.

 

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I know we'll never see that blocking over the Poke as depicted at the end of the 18z run, but man is that perty.

I saw that!  Pretty unreal looking and there's some really cold air nearby to work with potentially.  Not just at the end of the run, but before then as well.

[midatlanticweather]

 

 

[Heisy]

A bit of an improvement on the weeklies today from the last few runs, especially the first 2 while weeks in February. Note, however, starting the week of the 17th when the warmer anomalies hit, that we are on the north side of the dotted line most weeks. The dotted lines show the significance level and being on the north side shows less significance than below it. 
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202501230000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502030000

12z euro Ai actually trended favorably if we wanted some front end. I’m not selling that just yet at this range, we’ll see what 18z brings


.

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, Heisy said:

12z euro Ai actually trended favorably if we wanted some front end. I’m not selling that just yet at this range, we’ll see what 18z brings


.

Speaking of which, end of the 18z Euro run shows quite a noticeable change between 12z and 18z.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I know we'll never see that blocking over the Poke as depicted at the end of the 18z run, but man is that perty.

Did you see the blocking on the euro?  I think it’s rushing it but I think we get one more AO tank and one more period of blocking before time runs out. 

[clskinsfan]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You are amazing... I will spend the rest of my life aspiring to get to this level!  To be able to put out a detailed specific snowfall range on a storm 200 hours out is impressive!  I bow down to you sir.  

 

You are busting his balls. But I actually agree with him in some ways. This is a pretty normal snowy winter for us. The gradient has already set up and those to east got diddly squat while we are on our way to climo. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I know we'll never see that blocking over the Poke as depicted at the end of the 18z run, but man is that perty.

 

Not really surprising to see that blocking over the top. If you look at the previous rise in the AO during mid Fall, you will see several cycles down ( each one a little more negative ) which happened over a period of about 6 weeks. The peak - AO occurred about 10 weeks after the mid October + peak AO, however, not sure if we repeat that amount of time this go around.     

I believe we will see a continuation of the AO gradually trending negative again with the - AO peak sometime in March.    This should favor another snowfall threat for the Mid Atlantic. 

 

 

[Scraff]

Drunk AF in the Atlantic. I’m bringing home the SE ridge and a bottle of dark rum. Home Saturday.  All the Caribbean heat has melted my brain. I’m ready for the tan to be sucked back outta of of body so I can get back to my winter whiteness. So when’s the next tracking window. Eff this 80 degrees shit and drinking all day. I’m back for snow! 
 

ETA: My dad just cut me off. Good call. 

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Drunk AF

Yep. I can understand this....

[Chris78]

26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

You are busting his balls. But I actually agree with him in some ways. This is a pretty normal snowy winter for us. The gradient has already set up and those to east got diddly squat while we are on our way to climo. 

You know your yard climo  better than I  but for me I'm about half way to climo at about 13 " so far. Definitely been a better winter than I expected  but I'm not sure I make it to climo. I beleive PSU needs another 20-25" to make it to his climo.

Metro areas have a better shot to make it to climo because of 1/6 and overall having a lower number to hit climo.

[Heisy]

18z euro Ai, man, if only that northern piece dove SE ahead of the main shortwave, because it’s not overly amped.

As is they come at the same time which doesn’t work for us.





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[JenkinsJinkies]

5 hours ago, cbmclean said:

The upcoming 2030 - 2060 base period.  -10 F equates to 60 F.

Technically it would be 2031-2060

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

You are busting his balls. But I actually agree with him in some ways. This is a pretty normal snowy winter for us. The gradient has already set up and those to east got diddly squat while we are on our way to climo. 

I was referring to putting out a forecast for a single storm at day 8.  It might end up rain to Canada or suppressed to nothing for all we know.  But didn’t southeast of us get that first storm?  At least southeast of me lol. I guess it’s all perspective. I actually think this winter has been oddly diffuse so far with no defined track. One storm went really far south. One hit Bob Chill area with 3-5” And we got 1-2”  One jacked just SE of DC and one just NW. there is a huge area in the east near to slightly above norm on snow but no area got crazy totals because the storms were all over the place. 

[Ji]

36 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z euro Ai, man, if only that northern piece dove SE ahead of the main shortwave, because it’s not overly amped.

As is they come at the same time which doesn’t work for us.





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thats a major changee in the timing of the Sw lol....i guess nothing is set in stone yet. Now we need to slow down by a day

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

You know your yard climo  better than I  but for me I'm about half way to climo at about 13 " so far. Definitely been a better winter than I expected  but I'm not sure I make it to climo. I beleive PSU needs another 20-25" to make it to his climo.

Metro areas have a better shot to make it to climo because of 1/6 and overall having a lower number to hit climo.

I need 21”. That might be hard but a couple of the analog years would get me close. I need 16” though to hit my median which is more realistic. 

[Heisy]

thats a major changee in the timing of the Sw lol....i guess nothing is set in stone yet. Now we need to slow down by a day

Yep, it’s going back to what it was doing a few days ago splitting some of the shortwave off. If you look at the maps I posted you can see part of the left over energy in the southwest. This is the progression we likely need, but we also need the northern stream to cooperate


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