January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month

[mappy]

Lets see if we can get one more event before the month is over.

GO COMMANDERS!

[CAPE]

There is a signal for storminess on the latest GEFS and EURO ens runs in the Feb 1-4 window. A handful of members from each model have some frozen in our region. Still pretty far out in the LR, but not a particularly cold looking period on the mean at this point.

[Ji]

There is a signal for storminess on the latest GEFS and EURO ens runs in the Feb 1-4 window. A handful of members from each model have some frozen in our region. Still pretty far out in the LR, but not a particularly cold looking period on the mean at this point.

Unfortunately this seems to have gotten pushed back from Jan 30-31 to Feb 2 where cold isn’t as robust

[Fozz]

The 0z Euro MECS is the only thing I have to ride my hopes on.

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

Unfortunately this seems to have gotten pushed back from Jan 30-31 to Feb 2 where cold isn’t as robust

Modeling overnight, including the 6z Euro and Eps, have strengthened the cold push at day 6+. If the southern vort came up earlier on recent modeling, it would stay south in all likelihood. So it's not necessarily a bad thing it's being delayed. Bottom line is that it is soooo difficult to get the perfect timing needed for a decent event as depicted on the 0z. All we can hope for now is that the Euro AI is not right at this range because there's no chance for anyone east of the Mississippi if it is.

[osfan24]

40 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Modeling overnight, including the 6z Euro and Eps, have strengthened the cold push at day 6+. If the southern vort came up earlier on recent modeling, it would stay south in all likelihood. So it's not necessarily a bad thing it's being delayed. Bottom line is that it is soooo difficult to get the perfect timing needed for a decent event as depicted on the 0z. All we can hope for now is that the Euro AI is not right at this range because there's no chance for anyone east of the Mississippi if it is.

As long as the AO and NAO are positive, the chances of a hit here are so, so small. Have we ever had a big storm from both of those teleconnections being positive?

[anotherman]

Just now, osfan24 said:

As long as the AO and NAO are positive, the chances of a hit here are so, so small. Have we ever had a big storm from both of those teleconnections being positive?

2013-14?  We had a great winter but no huge storms.

[mitchnick]

6z AI no better than 0z for late January/early February. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, anotherman said:

2013-14?  We had a great winter but no huge storms.

2/11 was big...I  think it was the 11th, but could be wrong.

[WVclimo]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

2/11 was big...I  think it was the 11th, but could be wrong.

DCA - 7.0”

BWI- 11.5”

IAD- 13.3”

[bncho]

It's extremely hard to get a really big snowstorm (12+") sometime other than an El Nino.
Expectations should be kept in check for the rest of this season. We got our big-ish one on 1/6. Now we should be take our 1-3" and 2-4" events when they come until we get another AO/NAO flip to negative.

[anotherman]

I'm going to hold onto '96 anyway. 

[Ji]

6z AI no better than 0z for late January/early February. 

I’ll go with the euro op over the euro Ai anytime




Until they flip

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

I’ll go with the euro op over the euro Ai anytime




Until they flip

But of course. 

[mitchnick]

12z Icon at 180hrs  isn't bad with the storm moving east. Not real cold but High pressure in Canada is building and heading SE. Timing is key again.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

As long as the AO and NAO are positive, the chances of a hit here are so, so small. Have we ever had a big storm from both of those teleconnections being positive?

The snowstorm we got in Feb 2014.  And the snowfall distribution gradient on last nights Euro looks very similar to that storm.  Which does not mean "it's gonna happen" but its a good indicator of if such a storm were to happen what is is likely to look like geographically.  It would likely be a storm that would likely favor NW parts of our forum.  That does not mean 95 can't get snow...but most of the significant storms we have had during a positive AO/NAO favor NW with "more" snow.  Feb 2014 was kind of the max end for this type of event...and there was a pretty perfect PNA EPO full latitude ridge in that case, this time we have a departing severely displaced TPV leaving a cold antecedent airmass to our northeast as the driving mechanism.  It's not the worst setup ever but it would take a bit of luck to score a big hit.  

[Heisy]

End of the icon doesn’t look terrible. That northern piece would beat out the cutoff.

FWIW




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[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The snowstorm we got in Feb 2014.  And the snowfall distribution gradient on last nights Euro looks very similar to that storm.  Which does not mean "it's gonna happen" but its a good indicator of if such a storm were to happen what is is likely to look like geographically.  It would likely be a storm that would likely favor NW parts of our forum.  That does not mean 95 can't get snow...but most of the significant storms we have had during a positive AO/NAO favor NW with "more" snow.  Feb 2014 was kind of the max end for this type of event...and there was a pretty perfect PNA EPO full latitude ridge in that case, this time we have a departing severely displaced TPV leaving a cold antecedent airmass to our northeast as the driving mechanism.  It's not the worst setup ever but it would take a bit of luck to score a big hit.  

I'm assuming you're referring to the storm where 95 got like 14 inches and N & W got like 2 feet?

[stormtracker]

GFS back to holding the s/w back a bit...I don't think that's what we want...we need it to come out sooner before the warm up I think

[osfan24]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm assuming you're referring to the storm where 95 got like 14 inches and N & W got like 2 feet?

Yeah, that was an incredible storm N&W. For 95, it was a really fun night if you stayed up all night, but it just drizzled the next day and a ton of snow melted. I went from about a foot or so down to less than half of that by the afternoon. And then it sleeted and eventually turned back to snow briefly. I low-key hate that storm because, ground truth when it was all done, NW got like 20 inches more than me.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS back to holding the s/w back a bit...I don't think that's what we want...we need it to come out sooner before the warm up I think

Unless our confluence holds, and I'll be surprised if it does, we're sunk.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah, that was an incredible storm N&W. For 95, it was a really fun night if you stayed up all night, but it just drizzled the next day and a ton of snow melted. I went from about a foot or so down to less than half of that by the afternoon. And then it sleeted and eventually turned back to snow briefly. I low-key hate that storm because, ground truth when it was all done, NW got like 20 inches more than me.

Huh...I don't even remember having a ton a melting. I shoveled around noontime and I still measured a foot. I was happy with that, lol

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Unless our confluence holds, and I'll be surprised if it does, we're sunk.

Falling apart as precip comes east into the CAD...just sits too long meandering, then stops progressing east and goes north west of the MS, lol

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Falling apart as precip comes east into the CAD...just sits too long meandering 

Seems like it also gets yanked north by NS interference, sorta a bizarre solution. Though cold air wasn't the issue this time.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Falling apart as precip comes east into the CAD...just sits too long meandering, then stops progressing east and goes north west of the MS, lol

Ughh. North is the AI.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Ughh. North is the AI.

Gets to us and we're flooded with warmth.  Next

[bncho]

Toss the GFS and Euro AI.

Now onto the Euro.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Gets to us and we're flooded with warmth.  Next

Yeah I don't like this window so much, stale cold air on the retreat usually isn't a good recipe for us but I guess it can workout via the Euro solution, so will stay tuned but not expecting it work.  

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Gets to us and we're flooded with warmth.  Next

AI again. Double ughhh

[Heisy]

Meh, GFS and cmc now resemble the Ai, ridge rolls over, ULL gets trapped under it, we lose confluence and it’s a cutter.


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