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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes and no....can you look me in my virtual eyes and tell me the aggresssive northern stream isn't wreaking havoc with models in the medium range this year?? 48 hours if probably hyperbole, but flip it....84 hours is not.

I blogged on Friday night that tomorrow would not be a big deal....guidance was converging on a NE blizzard at that time....then Saturday...POOF.

Bugs me that the physics packages in the models would have an unusual amount of problems with the aggressive northern stream.  Shouldn't that be part of their DNA, especially for the globals?

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8 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i saw people even comparing this to Jan 2015. that was on a totally different level of fail. not even close

Jan 2015 was a fail of 50+ miles and was a major storm that impacted a lot of people in the northeast.  This was much worse and the extended model agreement was greater than 2015, if only briefly.

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56 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Bugs me that the physics packages in the models would have an unusual amount of problems with the aggressive northern stream.  Shouldn't that be part of their DNA, especially for the globals?

A question about some terminology Lee Goldberg used tonight.  He said the problem wasn't the northern stream, he said the problem was that the southern storm was too quick and ran out way ahead of the ULL and that's why the storm was suppressed.  Does that mean the southern stream was quicker than the northern stream?

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

A question about some terminology Lee Goldberg used tonight.  He said the problem wasn't the northern stream, he said the problem was that the southern storm was too quick and ran out way ahead of the ULL and that's why the storm was suppressed.  Does that mean the southern stream was quicker than the northern stream?

 

Remember this was going to be mostly a Thursday event on the models. Now it's almost outta here and the ULL is coming through tomorrow

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11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I the crux of the issue is that while many of your claims likely have at least some validity, most view it has natural variability and that should be the baseline assumption for now. I know you ultimately assert that you are open to new information moving forward and are not resigned to this being permanent, but I think this issue is that your tone seems to suggest that your baseline assumption is that it will be permanent moving forward. Maybe I am off base, but that is how it comes across to me.


What seems to have become permanent since around 2010 has been these stuck weather patterns for extended periods of time. But the variability that you mention can perhaps be related to interactions with other underlying patterns. So that we have been varying which patterns have been getting stuck and for how long before shifting to a new stuck pattern.

One of the most impressive stuck weather patterns from the 09-10 winter through March 2018 was the phenomenal benchmark KU snowstorm pattern. With numerous snowfall records being set over the 9 year period. 

Our new warmer summer pattern emerged in 2010 leading to to 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers. The shift to warmer winters began in 15-16 with 9 out of the last 10 winters here running warmer to record warm. While this was our first colder winter using the new 91-20 climate normals, it really wasn’t that cold compared to winters like 13-14, 14-15, 10-11, and 02-03. So we can say this probably would have been a much colder winter in an earlier era. 

The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet emerged back in 18-19 and continues to this day with the record cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. I have a ton of respect for the variability you mention since I have no idea how much longer this most recent stuck storm track pattern will persist. But it could take a shift in the marine heatwave configuration in coming years to ultimately attempt to shift back to at least an occasional benchmark snowstorm track. But it will be interesting to see how things turn out.
 

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Just now, bluewave said:


What seems to have become permanent since around 2010 has been these stuck weather patterns for extended periods of time. But the variability that you mention can perhaps be related to interactions with other underlying patterns. So that we have been varying which patterns have been getting stuck and for how long before shifting to a new stuck pattern.

One of the most impressive stuck weather patterns from the 09-10 winter through March 2018 was the phenomenal benchmark KU snowstorm pattern. With numerous snowfall records being set over the 9 year period. 

Our new warmer summer pattern emerged in 2010 leading to to 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers. The shift to warmer winters began in 15-16 with 9 out of the last 10 winters here running warmer to record warm. While this was our first colder winter using the new 91-20 climate normals, it really wasn’t that cold compared to winters like 13-14, 14-15, 10-11, 02-03. So we can say this probably would have been a much colder winter in an earlier era. 

The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet emerged back in 18-19 and continues to this day with the record cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. I have a ton of respect for the variability you mention since I have no idea how much longer this most recent stuck storm track pattern will persist. But it could take a shift in the marine heatwave configuration in coming years to ultimately attempt to shift back to at least an occasional benchmark snowstorm track. But it will be interesting to see how things turn out.
 

It could be thats what changed is the natural variability has become more extreme than it was in the past.  So for example the 2000s and 2010s were snowier than for example the 1950s and 1960s were and what we're in now is less snowy than the 1970s and 1980s were.  Both extremes have increased.

 

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:


What seems to have become permanent since around 2010 has been these stuck weather patterns for extended periods of time. But the variability that you mention can perhaps be related to interactions with other underlying patterns. So that we have been varying which patterns have been getting stuck and for how long before shifting to a new stuck pattern.

One of the most impressive stuck weather patterns from the 09-10 winter through March 2018 was the phenomenal benchmark KU snowstorm pattern. With numerous snowfall records being set over the 9 year period. 

Our new warmer summer pattern emerged in 2010 leading to to 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers. The shift to warmer winters began in 15-16 with 9 out of the last 10 winters here running warmer to record warm. While this was our first colder winter using the new 91-20 climate normals, it really wasn’t that cold compared to winters like 13-14, 14-15, 10-11, 02-03. So we can say this probably would have been a much colder winter in an earlier era. 

The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet emerged back in 18-19 and continues to this day with the record cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. I have a ton of respect for the variability you mention since I have no idea how much longer this most recent stuck storm track pattern will persist. But it could take a shift in the marine heatwave configuration in coming years to ultimately attempt to shift back to at least an occasional benchmark snowstorm track. But it will be interesting to see how things turn out.
 

Our new warmer summer pattern emerged in 2010 leading to to 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers. 

Our warmer summers were really 2010 to 2013, that was a historic hot streak.  Unfortunately excessive rainfall and the northward position of the Bermuda High have made our summers more humid rather than as hot as they were back then (as measured by 90 and 100 degree highs.) I have hopes we're going to return to drier summers now with more of a westerly rather than humid southerly flow and so we should get back to an early 2010s kind of pattern (similar to the summers we had in the 80s like 1980, 1983, 1988 and the 90s like 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999 and 2002.) Statistically with 90 degree days the 1990s were our hottest decade for summer heat and the early 10s were similar to that.  1991-2002 had some truly amazing summers!

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:


What seems to have become permanent since around 2010 has been these stuck weather patterns for extended periods of time. But the variability that you mention can perhaps be related to interactions with other underlying patterns. So that we have been varying which patterns have been getting stuck and for how long before shifting to a new stuck pattern.

One of the most impressive stuck weather patterns from the 09-10 winter through March 2018 was the phenomenal benchmark KU snowstorm pattern. With numerous snowfall records being set over the 9 year period. 

Our new warmer summer pattern emerged in 2010 leading to to 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers. The shift to warmer winters began in 15-16 with 9 out of the last 10 winters here running warmer to record warm. While this was our first colder winter using the new 91-20 climate normals, it really wasn’t that cold compared to winters like 13-14, 14-15, 10-11, and 02-03. So we can say this probably would have been a much colder winter in an earlier era. 

The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet emerged back in 18-19 and continues to this day with the record cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. I have a ton of respect for the variability you mention since I have no idea how much longer this most recent stuck storm track pattern will persist. But it could take a shift in the marine heatwave configuration in coming years to ultimately attempt to shift back to at least an occasional benchmark snowstorm track. But it will be interesting to see how things turn out.
 

Seeing the frozen ponds enough to play hockey on and ice on the bays was good this winter, haven’t seen that in probably 10 years here. But like you said, 20 years ago that would be a normal winter. 

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A storm passing well south and east of New York City will bring a significant snowfall to parts of the lower Middle Atlantic region tonight into tomorrow.

Snowfall estimates:
Norfolk: 6"-12"
Raleigh: 1"-3"
Richmond: 3"-6"

A period of light snow or flurries is still possible in the New York City area from the associated upper-level low. The light snow event could bring a coating to a half-inch of snow. Somewhat higher amounts are possible from central New Jersey southward and across eastern Suffolk County.

Overall, generally colder outcome is likely during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal. However, there are growing indications for a major pattern shift during the first week of March. Some of the guidance begins to break down the pattern in the closing days of February. The CFSv2 is currently a cold outlier.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -16.91 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.306 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.4° (2.5° below normal).

 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

A question about some terminology Lee Goldberg used tonight.  He said the problem wasn't the northern stream, he said the problem was that the southern storm was too quick and ran out way ahead of the ULL and that's why the storm was suppressed.  Does that mean the southern stream was quicker than the northern stream?

 

From what I am seeing on some of the maps, that southern jet is like a firehose at the moment.

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12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It could be thats what changed is the natural variability has become more extreme than it was in the past.  So for example the 2000s and 2010s were snowier than for example the 1950s and 1960s were and what we're in now is less snowy than the 1970s and 1980s were.  Both extremes have increased.

 

Yeah, the variability has become more extreme. Just look at the wild swings in the AO index. And that is just one area of the world. The new variation of getting a 970 mb cutter during a -5 -AO linking up with the Southeast Ridge was a new type of pattern variability. This variation has become more common during the 2020s. 

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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the variability has become more extreme. Just look at the wild swings in the AO index. And that is just one area of the world. The new variation of getting a 970 mb cutter during a -5 -AO linking up with the Southeast Ridge was a new type of pattern variability. This variation has become more common during the 2020s. 

When the jet calms down I have a feeling we're going to get absolutely destroyed when one of these strong blocking episodes comes through. Seeing what's happening to the South shows that we are absolutely cold enough for a blockbuster winter, we just need that benchmark track back like you mentioned and when it happens boom the higher moisture in the atmosphere and obviously from the higher water temps we can see some historic storms. I think the warmer Gulf Waters may have led to the record snowfalls in New Orleans and Destin Florida..

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This turned out to be a reversion to the 2020s snowfall mean from Philly up to Boston. So this season was very close to average for the 2020s. A big win for spots like Philly that avoided another under 1” season. NYC was able to miss having another season under 10”. And Boston got close to 30” instead of matching some of the lower under 15” seasons in recent years. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean T T 1.2 4.7 3.6 0.1 0.0 9.4
2024-2025 0.0 T 0.3 4.6 3.1 M M 8.0
2023-2024 0.0 T T 8.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 11.2
2022-2023 T 0.0 T T 0.3 T 0.0 0.3
2021-2022 0.0 0.0 T 12.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 12.9
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 6.6 3.0 14.3 0.0 0.0 23.9
2019-2020 0.0 T 0.1 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.3


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.0 T 2.7 4.2 7.0 0.1 T 13.9
2024-2025 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.0 6.7 M M 12.5
2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.7 T 5.3 11.5 8.2 0.6 0.2 26.5
2024-2025 0.0 0.0 5.7 8.2 14.2 M M 28.1
2023-2024 0.0 T 0.2 9.0 0.5 T 0.1 9.8
2022-2023 0.0 T 1.0 6.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 12.4
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.4 36.2 15.3 2.1 T 54.0
2020-2021 4.3 T 13.0 5.8 15.3 0.1 0.1 38.6
2019-2020 0.0 T 11.5 3.1 0.5 T 0.7 15.8
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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This turned out to be a reversion to the 2020s snowfall mean from Philly up to Boston. So this season was very close to average for the 2020s. A big win for spots like Philly that avoided another under 1” season. NYC was able to miss having another season under 10”. And Boston got close to 30” instead of matching some of the lower under 15” seasons in recent years. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean T T 1.2 4.7 3.6 0.1 0.0 9.4
2024-2025 0.0 T 0.3 4.6 3.1 M M 8.0
2023-2024 0.0 T T 8.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 11.2
2022-2023 T 0.0 T T 0.3 T 0.0 0.3
2021-2022 0.0 0.0 T 12.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 12.9
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 6.6 3.0 14.3 0.0 0.0 23.9
2019-2020 0.0 T 0.1 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.3


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.0 T 2.7 4.2 7.0 0.1 T 13.9
2024-2025 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.0 6.7 M M 12.5
2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.7 T 5.3 11.5 8.2 0.6 0.2 26.5
2024-2025 0.0 0.0 5.7 8.2 14.2 M M 28.1
2023-2024 0.0 T 0.2 9.0 0.5 T 0.1 9.8
2022-2023 0.0 T 1.0 6.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 12.4
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.4 36.2 15.3 2.1 T 54.0
2020-2021 4.3 T 13.0 5.8 15.3 0.1 0.1 38.6
2019-2020 0.0 T 11.5 3.1 0.5 T 0.7 15.8

very low snowfall in the midwest too, which is not normal for them in a la nina-- examples, Omaha, Nebraska and Chicago.

 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This turned out to be a reversion to the 2020s snowfall mean from Philly up to Boston. So this season was very close to average for the 2020s. A big win for spots like Philly that avoided another under 1” season. NYC was able to miss having another season under 10”. And Boston got close to 30” instead of matching some of the lower under 15” seasons in recent years. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean T T 1.2 4.7 3.6 0.1 0.0 9.4
2024-2025 0.0 T 0.3 4.6 3.1 M M 8.0
2023-2024 0.0 T T 8.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 11.2
2022-2023 T 0.0 T T 0.3 T 0.0 0.3
2021-2022 0.0 0.0 T 12.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 12.9
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 6.6 3.0 14.3 0.0 0.0 23.9
2019-2020 0.0 T 0.1 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.3


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.0 T 2.7 4.2 7.0 0.1 T 13.9
2024-2025 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.0 6.7 M M 12.5
2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 5.2 T 0.0 7.5
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Mean 0.7 T 5.3 11.5 8.2 0.6 0.2 26.5
2024-2025 0.0 0.0 5.7 8.2 14.2 M M 28.1
2023-2024 0.0 T 0.2 9.0 0.5 T 0.1 9.8
2022-2023 0.0 T 1.0 6.9 3.6 0.9 0.0 12.4
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.4 36.2 15.3 2.1 T 54.0
2020-2021 4.3 T 13.0 5.8 15.3 0.1 0.1 38.6
2019-2020 0.0 T 11.5 3.1 0.5 T 0.7 15.8

wow last winter was very bad at Boston with under 10 inches of snow, how many times has Boston had less than 10 inches of snow?

wasn't 2018-19 also a low snowfall season for all these locations?

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What seems to have become permanent since around 2010 has been these stuck weather patterns for extended periods of time. But the variability that you mention can perhaps be related to interactions with other underlying patterns. So that we have been varying which patterns have been getting stuck and for how long before shifting to a new stuck pattern.
One of the most impressive stuck weather patterns from the 09-10 winter through March 2018 was the phenomenal benchmark KU snowstorm pattern. With numerous snowfall records being set over the 9 year period. 
Our new warmer summer pattern emerged in 2010 leading to to 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers. The shift to warmer winters began in 15-16 with 9 out of the last 10 winters here running warmer to record warm. While this was our first colder winter using the new 91-20 climate normals, it really wasn’t that cold compared to winters like 13-14, 14-15, 10-11, and 02-03. So we can say this probably would have been a much colder winter in an earlier era. 
The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet emerged back in 18-19 and continues to this day with the record cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. I have a ton of respect for the variability you mention since I have no idea how much longer this most recent stuck storm track pattern will persist. But it could take a shift in the marine heatwave configuration in coming years to ultimately attempt to shift back to at least an occasional benchmark snowstorm track. But it will be interesting to see how things turn out.
 

Why do you think that is?


.
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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

cold and dry December 1989 was very similar to this winter, only colder

Yeah it was colder because the trough was positioned directly over us and deeper and not as wide. This trough was broader. Check out the pack the ridge encompassed part of the West Coast where this year it was further west allowing more of the cold air to spill into the middle of the country.

image.png.38e690a8676f75f97d23182700b7e2fc.png

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