February 2025

[MJO812]

Buckle up after the 1st week of February 

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[vegan_edible]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Buckle up after the 1st week of February 

bruh

[cleetussnow]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Buckle up after the 1st week of February 

We buckled up

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Models keep showing a possible storm next week.  Could be wintry.

GFS keeps teasing us with bogus snow threats. It had a snow event for Saturday. Then Sunday. Now it's showing one for late Wednesday into Thursday next week. I doubt it's right as the other models are warmer for that potential event. You never know for sure, so we'll keep an eye on it. But I think next week is unlikely and we probably have to wait until the 2nd week of the month to have a better threat. Euro looks interesting in the long range. SnowGoose sounds optimistic that we'll see an event or two. Hopefully it's a decent pattern for mid February. 

[jm1220]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Buckle up after the 1st week of February 

Buckle up where-Detroit, Buffalo, Minneapolis? Or New Orleans, Pensacola and Savannah again? 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Same story continues on ensembles.  Continuation at an attempted overdone SER D13-16 only to see it dampened as it gets closer to D10.  Both the GEFS/EPS last night really push the ridge poleward by AK too post 240.  Still think we see a couple of events in February, even at the coast.

you can get a 1-3 type storm in any pattern, even February 2018 had one.

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Buckle up where-Detroit, Buffalo, Minneapolis? Or New Orleans, Pensacola and Savannah again? 

We’ve been buckled up for these awesome snowstorm patterns and digital snow on the models since late November. Remember the phantom Thanksgiving snow “threat”? Then we were told to buckle up for December. Then it was buckle up for January. Then it was buckle up for early February, now it’s buckle up for mid-late February. I’m sure next it will be buckle up for March. We just keep kicking the snow can down the road. The goal posts and finish line just keep getting moved further and further ahead in time. On Saturday, we will go into February with less than 10 inches of snow for NYC, total, since November. While I will gladly admit I busted on the cold up to this point, did not see that level of cold coming, the snow hype has also been a huge bust, a miserable failure. It’s The Boy Who Cried Wolf for snow at this point….

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Buckle up where-Detroit, Buffalo, Minneapolis? Or New Orleans, Pensacola and Savannah again? 

Why are all of you so obtuse? It's not like we never seen snow in mild patterns.  

Pretty sad subforum sometimes 

[uofmiami]

 

 

[vegan_edible]

37 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We’ve been buckled up for these awesome snowstorm patterns and digital snow on the models since late November. Remember the phantom Thanksgiving snow “threat”? Then we were told to buckle up for December. Then it was buckle up for January. Then it was buckle up for early February, now it’s buckle up for mid-late February. I’m sure next it will be buckle up for March. We just keep kicking the snow can down the road. The goal posts and finish line just keep getting moved further and further ahead in time. On Saturday, we will go into February with less than 10 inches of snow for NYC, total, since November. While I will gladly admit I busted on the cold up to this point, did not see that level of cold coming, the snow hype has also been a huge bust, a miserable failure. It’s The Boy Who Cried Wolf for snow at this point….

i for one am buckling myself in for june! heard the shortwaves can really stir up a 5-8" event. im kinda worried about the mjo tho

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

i for one am buckling myself in for june! heard the shortwaves can really stir up a 5-8" event. im kinda worried about the mjo tho

Technically won't help in June it's too warm by then.

[vegan_edible]

on a serious note though, at this point in time we should all collectively *take a breath* and admit that the best part of winter climo is rapidly coming to a close. although the hope to see a decent snow event should not be lost entirely we should be rational with the way we interpret data and not jump into some sort of false hope scenario. maybe we score in late feb, if we dont, too bad. next year we try again

[EastonSN+]

39 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

 

 

GFS tends to outperform the euro from an mjo projection perspective.

[EastonSN+]

57 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

you can get a 1-3 type storm in any pattern, even February 2018 had one.

I technically was a four to six right?

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

We buckled up

I believe perhaps a clear definition of buckle up should be provided by the said Twitter blogger. 

[[email protected]]

54 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We’ve been buckled up for these awesome snowstorm patterns and digital snow on the models since late November. Remember the phantom Thanksgiving snow “threat”? Then we were told to buckle up for December. Then it was buckle up for January. Then it was buckle up for early February, now it’s buckle up for mid-late February. I’m sure next it will be buckle up for March. We just keep kicking the snow can down the road. The goal posts and finish line just keep getting moved further and further ahead in time. On Saturday, we will go into February with less than 10 inches of snow for NYC, total, since November. While I will gladly admit I busted on the cold up to this point, did not see that level of cold coming, the snow hype has also been a huge bust, a miserable failure. It’s The Boy Who Cried Wolf for snow at this point….

Buckle up, big boy!

[brooklynwx99]

to be fair, this winter was supposed to be another warm one and that has busted tremendously. even I called for a warm year and it's been anything but. wouldn't be shocked if the upcoming warm spell just ended up near normal

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

on a serious note though, at this point in time we should all collectively *take a breath* and admit that the best part of winter climo is rapidly coming to a close. although the hope to see a decent snow event should not be lost entirely we should be rational with the way we interpret data and not jump into some sort of false hope scenario. maybe we score in late feb, if we dont, too bad. next year we try again

Or March

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I technically was a four to six right?

I don't really remember how much the Park had, was it 3-4 there?

[brooklynwx99]

extended guidance underdoing the Pacific jet again

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't really remember how much the Park had, was it 3-4 there?

Believe it may have been five

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Why are all of you so obtuse? It's not like we never seen snow in mild patterns.  

Pretty sad subforum sometimes 

Be realistic here....the pattern is not supportive of anything interesting for the foreseeable future. 

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

to be fair, this winter was supposed to be another warm one and that has busted tremendously. even I called for a warm year and it's been anything but. wouldn't be shocked if the upcoming warm spell just ended up near normal

We finally got the cold-but no Southern Jet and the northern jet is just too fast for anything to amplify...can't even get a good cutter!

[nycwinter]

most boring winter ever you cant even get fantasy storms on the models..

[NEG NAO]

32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We finally got the cold-but no Southern Jet and the northern jet is just too fast for anything to amplify...can't even get a good cutter!

will be interesting how much rain we actually receive on Friday

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

will be interesting how much rain we actually receive on Friday

RGEM just came in wet .50 to 1 inch region wide

[SnowGoose69]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

to be fair, this winter was supposed to be another warm one and that has busted tremendously. even I called for a warm year and it's been anything but. wouldn't be shocked if the upcoming warm spell just ended up near normal

It was either Eric Webb or BAMWX who nailed it back in October.   They kept showing how some of the indices indicated it would be a La Nina which more favored the poleward ridge over the E PAC/AK.  I have not seen any research on this one, not sure if Don has any stats on it.  Some others stated that a - AO/NAO episode in the 12/15-1/15 period or so, especially if its strong will tend to correlate with another episode the following winter in the same period.  I cannot really make sense of that but indeed that period did have a -AO/NAO in 23-24 and 24-25 but we've seen cases where that does not occur.  Example ragingly +NAO/AO in Dec 2001 and Dec 2011 following negative episodes in 2000 and 2010

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It was either Eric Webb or BAMWX who nailed it back in October.   They kept showing how some of the indices indicated it would be a La Nina which more favored the poleward ridge over the E PAC/AK.  I have not seen any research on this one, not sure if Don has any stats on it.  Some others stated that a - AO/NAO episode in the 12/15-1/15 period or so, especially if its strong will tend to correlate with another episode the following winter in the same period.  I cannot really make sense of that but indeed that period did have a -AO/NAO in 23-24 and 24-25 but we've seen cases where that does not occur.  Example ragingly +NAO/AO in Dec 2001 and Dec 2011 following negative episodes in 2000 and 2010

I believe it was Eric. I will have to look through the statistics to see what I have. I don’t recall any connection to the following winter.

[brooklynwx99]

32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It was either Eric Webb or BAMWX who nailed it back in October.   They kept showing how some of the indices indicated it would be a La Nina which more favored the poleward ridge over the E PAC/AK.  I have not seen any research on this one, not sure if Don has any stats on it.  Some others stated that a - AO/NAO episode in the 12/15-1/15 period or so, especially if its strong will tend to correlate with another episode the following winter in the same period.  I cannot really make sense of that but indeed that period did have a -AO/NAO in 23-24 and 24-25 but we've seen cases where that does not occur.  Example ragingly +NAO/AO in Dec 2001 and Dec 2011 following negative episodes in 2000 and 2010

I always liked 13-14 as an analog... just didn't have the stomach to predict what looks to be a BN winter. kinda needed to see it with my own eyes after the last few years