February 2025

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That's music for our ears, it could be like the early 2010s with the solar min and the better Pacific.

 

The PDO wasn't bad this winter. Maybe it's a good sign of things to come.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's crap. This is what I can't stand about CC zealots....you can't win. Everything is due to CC....pattern is warm? CC. Its cold, but you missed that big storm? CC.

Any guess at which season was my least snowiest on record?

Let me help.

 

 

 

Climate change?

 

 

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sometimes the alignment is just off and cold pattern doesn't end up conducive to large NE snowstorms.

Look at that mean vortex position this season....look familiar???

That difference in ambient heights is absolutely CC.....no doubt.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ding, ding, ding.

This season will be my 7th conecutibve well below average snowfall season.....care to venture a guess at where my mean since 2015 is?

60"....just about normal. Last decade was nuts. 

I do think that CC is causing a more feast or famine type pattern to snowfall distributuon for us......I will say that. I think its augmenting these pre exisitng cycles.

Yes, the higher variability and the extremes are because of CC. Higher precip storms too (intermingled with periods of less precip-- like our 0 rainfall in October and dry January.)  Another thing to look at are cycles of wetter periods followed by drier periods.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just to be clear.....CC is absolutely real. I think it if it continues in abated, it will have to evnetually cause a drastic decrease in snowfall, but I don't think we are as close as some are implying given that a lot of this warmth (not all) is observed nocturnally.

I'm not denying CC....I'm arguing is overattributed.

It’s pretty simple actually. The competing marine heatwaves and warmer background conditions shift the storm tracks and lead to less cold and snowy outcomes. This winter would have been an easy 25-50” snowfall season around NYC and several degrees colder just a little over a decade ago.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The PDO wasn't bad this winter. Maybe it's a good sign of things to come.

Yes to see that in a la nina might mean we are turning a corner.  It's like how 2000-01 was an indication of snowier winters to come (even though we took a temporary step back in 2001-02.)

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s pretty simple actually. The competing marine heatwaves and warmer background conditions shift the storm tracks and lead to less cold and snowy outcomes. This winter would have been an easy 25-50” snowfall season around NYC and much colder just a little over a decade ago.

Why wasn't 1979-1980 snowier? The marine heat waves weren't competing yet back then?

That fact that you think its simple is part of the problem......you have your mind made up about questions it takes decades to answer. Its called bias and having agenda.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s pretty simple actually. The competing marine heatwaves and warmer background conditions shift the storm tracks and lead to less cold and snowy outcomes. This winter would have been an easy 25-50” snowfall season around NYC and several degrees colder just a little over a decade ago.

The issue this winter was the PV.  Suppression. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Truth be told, I have learned a great deal from you Chris and have incorportated a lot of your ideology into my seasonal forecasting, but I think you are a bit preoccupied with some of this stuff and it compromises your objectivity.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

The issue this winter was the PV.  Suppression. 

There was also a couple of seasons like that in late 80s, too.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Why wasn't 1979-1980 snowier? The marine heat waves weren't competing yet back then?

That fact that you think its simple is part of the problem......you have your mind made up about questions it takes decades to answer. Its called bias.

This winter was nothing like 1979-1980. As I pointed out in the La Niña thread back in October, there were early indications that this would be a La Niña mismatch winter. So the near record +PNA from December into a January wasn’t a surprise to me. But I also said that there were differences between this year and other La Niña +PNA mismatches. This turned out to be a correct observation since the snowfall was dramatically below the La Niña +PNA mismatches we experienced in 20-21, 17-18, 10-11, 05-06, 00-01, and 95-96. 

The difference this winter was that the Pacific Jet didn’t relax enough to allow the benchmark track to lock in like it did during those La Niña winters. My guess is that this could be related to features like the ongoing record marine heatwave east of Japan leading to the frequent jet extensions when interacting with the Siberian air masses exiting the Asian continent. So we continued with the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks which have dominated since 18-19. 

We even had a -5 -AO which used to be associated with much snowier Februaries like 2021, 2010, 1978, and 1969. So now even great +PNAs and -AO patterns during La Ninas can’t produce the 25-50” or even 50” outcomes in this new climate state of the 2020s. 

Plus there were several posts on twitter back in December that we were on track for some type of 13-14 and 14-15 outcome based on the early December pattern. So those were both 50”+ seasons here. But I pointed out in the December threads that the Pacific Jet wasn’t following the weakening script necessary to produce those outcomes for cold and snow in spots like the NYC Metro region. The cold also didn’t approach the magnitude of the cold we saw back in 13-14 and 14-15 in the northeast.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

21 / 1 off a low of 17.  Coldest day since Jan 23rd and looks to be coldest of the week and perhaps till next winter?  Below freezing and lows back into the teens and near single digits. Overall cold and drier this week (swing and a miss on the potential bigger storm but that was becoming more apparent by Sat night).  Moderation by the coming weekend and to close the month or 21 - 25th.  Does looks to be a bit of a back and forth and more cold to close the month and perhaps open next month.  next shot at meaningful precip looks to be in the 27 - Mar 3 period.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This winter was nothing like 1979-1980. As I pointed out in the La Niña thread back in October, there were early indications that this would be a La Niña mismatch winter. So the near record +PNA from December into a January wasn’t a surprise to me. But I also said that there were differences between this year and other La Niña +PNA mismatches. This turned out to be a correct observation since the snowfall was dramatically below the La Niña +PNA mismatches we experienced in 20-21, 17-18, 10-11, 05-06, 00-01, and 95-96. 

The difference this winter was that the Pacific Jet didn’t relax enough to allow the benchmark track to lock in like it did during those La Niña winters. My guess is that this could be related to features like the ongoing record marine heatwave east of Japan leading to the frequent jet extensions when interacting with the Siberian air masses exiting the Asian continent. So we continued with the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks which have dominated since 18-19. 

We even had a -5 -AO which used to be associated with much snowier Februaries like 2021, 2010, 1978, and 1969. So now even great +PNAs and -AO patterns during La Ninas can’t produce the 25-50” or even 50” outcomes in this new climate state of the 2020s. 

Plus there were several posts on twitter back in December that we were on track for some type of 13-14 and 14-15 outcome based on the early December pattern. So those were both 50”+ seasons here. But I pointed out in the December threads that the Pacific Jet wasn’t following the weakening script necessary to produce those outcomes for cold and snow in spots like the NYC Metro region. The cold also didn’t approach the magnitude of the cold we saw back in 13-14 and 14-15 in the northeast.

 

 

Well, I don't think the pattern was as favorable as 2014-2015...I know I never anticipted that magnitude of cold. 

You say this winter was nothing like 1979-1980, which isn't entirely true....the mean vortex was right near New England in both seasons and that has never been an abundantly snowy pattern. I'm not even saying that your contention regarding the Pacific jet wasn't an issue, but it wasn't the only one. 

I would say I can't wait until we get crushed again, but I'm sure you will attribute the snow to CC......there is nothing that would change your mind. CC is the meteorological equivalent to politics in mainstream society.

We can agree to disagree.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 71 (2011)
NYC: 68 (1981)
LGA: 67 (2011)
JFK: 67 (2011)


Lows:

EWR: -1 (1979)
NYC: 0 (1979)
LGA: 0 (1979)
JFK: 2 (1979)

Historical:

 

1899 - While much of the central and eastern U.S. was recovering from the most severe cold wave of modern history, the temperature at San Francisco soared to 80 degrees to establish a record for month of February. (David Ludlum)

1959 - Some of the higher elevations of California were in the midst of a five day storm which produced 189 inches of snow, a single storm record for North America. (13th-19th) (David Ludlum)

1987 - A small but intense low pressure system combined with northerly upslope winds to produce eight inches of snow in five hours at Meeteetsie WY, located southeast of Cody. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms soaked the Central Gulf Coast Region with heavy rain. Totals in southern Louisiana ranged up to 8.50 inches near the town of Ridge, with 6.55 inches at Plaguemine. Thunderstorms in northern Florida drenched Apalachicola with 5.41 inches of rain in 24 hours, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Mayo. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure off the coast of North Carolina brought freezing rain and heavy snow to Virginia and the Carolinas. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 18 inches at Franklin. Freezing rain reached a thickness of two inches around Charlotte NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - An intense but slow moving Pacific storm worked its way across Utah over a two day period. The storm blanketed the valleys with 4 to 12 inches of snow, and produced up to 42 inches of snow in the mountains. Heavy snow also fell across northern Arizona. Williams received 22 inches of snow, and 12 inches was reported along the south rim of the Grand Canyon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1992: A thunderstorm spawned a powerful F4 tornado for so far north for the time of the year in southern Van Wert County in Ohio. The tornado touched down just west of US Route 127 and traveled northeastward for about 3 miles. One house was completely leveled, and nine others experienced severe damage. Six people were injured. 

[SACRUS]

 

Cold period

2/17

NYC: 36 / 26 (-5)
LGA: 38 / 27 (-4)
EWR: 38 / 27 (-3)
JFK: 39 / 29 (-1)

 

[SACRUS]

 

Temps firgid into the N Plains and GL

 

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I don't think the pattern was as favorable as 2014-2015...I know I never anticipted that magnitude of cold. 

You say this winter was nothing like 1979-1980, which isn't entirely true....the mean vortex was right near New England in both seasons and that has never been an abundantly snowy pattern. I'm not even saying that your contention regarding the Pacific jet wasn't an issue, but it wasn't the only one. 

I would say I can't wait until we get crushed again, but I'm sure you will attribute the snow to CC......there is nothing that would change your mind. CC is the meteorological equivalent to politics in mainstream society.

We can agree to disagree.

I think part of your resistance to seeing the new reality of our 2020s climate is that you really enjoyed the winters during the much colder climate area. We both share the same sentiment. But not seeing the new parameters of the situation will hurt you forecast abilities in the long range by not adjusting to current regime. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think part of your resistance to seeing the new reality of our 2020s climate is that you really enjoyed the winters during the much colder climate area. We both share the same sentiment. But not seeing the new parameters of the situation will hurt you forecast abilities in the long range by not adjusting to current regime. 

If you had read my outlook, you would know that I have in fact adjusted.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html

I think my resistance to your specific ideology is that I would like more data before assuming large scale changes like that are the norm moving forward......but you do you.

PS: I was too warm this year.

[donsutherland1]

While climate change, particularly through marine heatwaves, likely played a role in shaping the overall hemispheric pattern and contributed to pattern persistence, the pattern specifics likely drove the January outcome and February outcome to date. Pattern specifics are a function of internal variability within the context of a warming climate. 

Climate change likely made this winter somewhat warmer than it might otherwise have been, but that likely had only a marginal impact on the snowfall. Absent climate change, New York City would likely have seen its coldest temperature reach the single digits rather than 10°.

Despite a favorable AO-/PNA+ combination mainly during the first three weeks of January, opportunities for big snowfalls in New York City did not materialize. One issue was that the AO became too severely negative leading to suppression. There was above normal snowfall, but it was focused on such cities as Baltimore, Richmond, and Washington, D.C.

As noted on 1/1: Should the AO dive below -3.000, which now appears likely, the prospects for a significant or major snowfall in the New York City area could be reduced.

The AO plunged to -3.795 on January 5th. The storm was suppressed with Baltimore and Washington, DC seeing 6" or more snow, but just 0.9" in New York City. The window of opportunity for a big snowstorm closed after January 20th as a positive AO regime took hold. That regime continued through February 7th. Such regimes typically favor smaller than blockbuster snowfalls in January.

The AO has since gone negative. However, that coincided with a positive PNA. An AO-/PNA+ regime is conducive to significant snowfalls during January and the first half of February (higher than climatological probability). However, once one gets into the second half of February, the PNA+ often leads to suppression in an environment characterized by shorter wave lengths. On 2/13, I responded to the 18z GFS's forecast pattern that "If the ridging is on or off the Pacific Northwest at this time of year, one will be more likely than not to see a suppressed solution."

The storm tomorrow into Thursday will be suppressed. Norfolk remains in line for a 6"-10" snowfall. At best, New York City could see some flurries or a period of light snow, but a no snow outcome is on the table.

In general, patterns provide insight into potential for a broad area e.g., the Middle Atlantic region. They do not provide details for specific locations within the region. Synoptic details determine whether the potential is realized and how specific locations are impacted. Patterns can provide insight into the medium range (often 4-7 days); synoptic details provide useful information within 3 days or less based on operational model skill.

In fact, the presence of the AO-/PNA+ pattern accounted for a disproportionate share of days with measurable snowfall and total snowfall during the January 1-February 14 period as suggested by the climate record:

Overall, pattern flaws and stochastic synoptic details played the largest role in shaping Winter 2024-2025's snowfall in the New York City area so far this season.

Finally, in terms of longer-term snowfall averages, I suspect that the combination of climate change and internal variability are responsible for the recent decline with NYC perhaps in the very early stages of a structural decline in seasonal snowfall (I don't believe the area running from Boston to Caribou is currently experiencing any long-term decline in seasonal snowfall; gains in moisture as winters warm may actually be leading to an increase at Caribou right now). By the mid-2030s, the impact of climate change should be more evident with New York City's 30-year average snowfall falling to or perhaps somewhat below 20". Even then, there will still be periodic snowy winters and big snowstorms for decades to come.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

While climate change, particularly through marine heatwaves, likely played a role in shaping the overall hemispheric pattern and contributed to pattern persistence, the pattern specifics likely drove the January outcome and February outcome to date. Pattern specifics are a function of internal variability within the context of a warming climate. 

Climate change likely made this winter somewhat warmer than it might otherwise have been, but that likely had only a marginal impact on the snowfall. Absent climate change, New York City would likely have seen its coldest temperature reach the single digits rather than 10°.

Despite a favorable AO-/PNA+ combination mainly during the first three weeks of January, opportunities for big snowfalls in New York City did not materialize. One issue was that the AO became too severely negative leading to suppression. There was above normal snowfall, but it was focused on such cities as Baltimore, Richmond, and Washington, D.C.

As noted on 1/1: Should the AO dive below -3.000, which now appears likely, the prospects for a significant or major snowfall in the New York City area could be reduced.

The AO plunged to -3.795 on January 5th. The storm was suppressed with Baltimore and Washington, DC seeing 6" or more snow, but just 0.9" in New York City. The window of opportunity for a big snowstorm closed after January 20th as a positive AO regime took hold. That regime continued through February 7th. Such regimes typically favor smaller than blockbuster snowfalls in January.

The AO has since gone negative. However, that coincided with a positive PNA. An AO-/PNA+ regime is conducive to significant snowfalls during January and the first half of February (higher than climatological probability). However, once one gets into the second half of February, the PNA+ often leads to suppression in an environment characterized by shorter wave lengths. On 2/13, I responded to the 18z GFS's forecast pattern that "If the ridging is on or off the Pacific Northwest at this time of year, one will be more likely than not to see a suppressed solution."

The storm tomorrow into Thursday will be suppressed. Norfolk remains in line for a 6"-10" snowfall. At best, New York City could see some flurries or a period of light snow, but a no snow outcome is on the table.

In general, patterns provide insight into potential for a broad area e.g., the Middle Atlantic region. They do not provide details for specific locations within the region. Synoptic details determine whether the potential is realized and how specific locations are impacted. Patterns can provide insight into the medium range (often 4-7 days); synoptic details provide useful information within 3 days or less based on operational model skill.

In fact, the presence of the AO-/PNA+ pattern accounted for a disproportionate share of days with measurable snowfall and total snowfall during the January 1-February 14 period as suggested by the climate record:

Overall, pattern flaws and stochastic synoptic details played the largest role in shaping Winter 2024-2025's snowfall in the New York City area so far this season.

Finally, in terms of longer-term snowfall averages, I suspect that the combination of climate change and internal variability are responsible for the recent decline with NYC perhaps in the very early stages of a structural decline in seasonal snowfall (I don't believe the area running from Boston to Caribou is currently experiencing any long-term decline in seasonal snowfall; gains in moisture as winters warm may actually be leading to an increase at Caribou right now). By the mid-2030s, the impact of climate change should be more evident with New York City's 30-year average snowfall falling to or perhaps somewhat below 20". Even then, there will still be periodic snowy winters and big snowstorms for decades to come.

 

100%.

Chef's kiss-

[Northof78]

Looks like chance of a very minor to 1" - 2" snowfall this Sunday with upper lever low and some coastal presence 

[wishcast_hater]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think my resistance is that I would like more data before assuming large scale changes like that are the norm moving forward......but you do you.

PS: I was too warm this year.

Underhanded stuff like this is why people are not buying the "warming climate".

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Underhanded stuff like this is why people are not buying the "warming climate".

 

Antics like that aside, the climate is certaintly warming. No question...end of debate. I just think some of these postualtions about how it may impact the atmosphere shouldn't be assumed as fact after only several years of obervsation.

[Northof78]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Antics like that aside, the climate is certaintly warming. No question...end of debate. I just think some of these postualtions about how it may impact the atmosphere shouldn't be assumed as fact after only several years of obervsation.

As it should, historically (looking back over 100,000's of years) we are currently in roughly the 80th percentile of cold vs. warm (80% of the time the world was warmer than current). Over periods of time it should normally warm off these levels and the ice caps should melt, if the past repeats itself, does man have a meaningful impact to the natural course of the warming (if there is a statistically signifcant one), no way we can say with certainty. 

[Northof78]

GFS continues a stormy and cold pattern through the entire period. 

[WE GOT HIM]

11 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

GFS continues a stormy and cold pattern through the entire period. 

Damn Spring just keeps getting pushed back

[JetsPens87]

2 minutes ago, WE GOT HIM said:

Damn Spring just keeps getting pushed back

It's Feb 18th...calm down

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

21 / 1 off a low of 17.  Coldest day since Jan 23rd and looks to be coldest of the week and perhaps till next winter?  Below freezing and lows back into the teens and near single digits. Overall cold and drier this week (swing and a miss on the potential bigger storm but that was becoming more apparent by Sat night).  Moderation by the coming weekend and to close the month or 21 - 25th.  Does looks to be a bit of a back and forth and more cold to close the month and perhaps open next month.  next shot at meaningful precip looks to be in the 27 - Mar 3 period.

 

looks like warmer weather 45 degrees finally gets here by Sunday the 23rd and possibly 50 by next Tuesday? Best part is it will be sunny!

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, WE GOT HIM said:

Damn Spring just keeps getting pushed back

it's not getting pushed back, forget the GFS

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

GFS continues a stormy and cold pattern through the entire period. 

Yeah okay meanwhile we will have zero precip for at least the next 7+ days and milder weather starting Sunday and continuing into next week

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Northof78 said:

Looks like chance of a very minor to 1" - 2" snowfall this Sunday with upper lever low and some coastal presence 

haha it's going to be in the mid 40s with sunshine on Sunday