February 2025

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Look at holidays. Christmas was a terrible week, MLK day was a terrible weekend, and this weekend is terrible. Hell Belleayre didn’t even open today along with many other mountains. Sure it has been great midweek and I’m lucky enough to have gotten out there midweek but let’s face it these mountains make their money during the three weekend I just mentioned and all have been terrible. Hence the C/C- . And no the Adirondacks haven’t had an amazing season as a whole. February has been great but Gore and Whiteface were struggling with only snowmaking trails until February. Northern Vermont though has been amazing like Jay Peak. A C is considered an average winter, no grade inflation here. Sure it is better than last winter (F) and the winter before (D). 

Yeah yesterday (ice) and today  (wind) would be awful conditions.    

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The first 16 days of the month have been +0.4°.

EWR…+0.7

NYC….-0.7°

LGA…..-0.4°

JFK….+3.1°

HPN….-0.5°

BDR…..-0.4°

ISP……+1.1°

Of course this will be changing dramatically since we're going to have well below normal temps all this week. By the end of the week we'll be solidly below normal for the month. 

[JustinRP37]

34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yeah yesterday (ice) and today  (wind) would be awful conditions.    

Very true. I don’t mind the cold, but heard that even with Belleayre, the express chair slipped off a tower today. Hopefully they can get it back up and running soon as I’m going to be there a few time this week. Gore for the seasons so far has just 95 inches of natural snow, well behind their average. For cold, this winter has been a B+/A-, but unfortunately not for snow (yet). I honestly think the northern mountains will have a great spring, Killington especially as March is usually their snowiest month. 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Very true. I don’t mind the cold, but heard that even with Belleayre, the express chair slipped off a tower today. Hopefully they can get it back up and running soon as I’m going to be there a few time this week. Gore for the seasons so far has just 95 inches of natural snow, well behind their average. For cold, this winter has been a B+/A-, but unfortunately not for snow (yet). I honestly think the northern mountains will have a great spring, Killington especially as March is usually their snowiest month. 

La Nina is usually great for NNE.    Local mountains here did ok-snowmaking saved the day...

[donsutherland1]

A much colder air mass has moved into the region on strong winds. The temperature could fall into the teens on tomorrow morning and/or Wednesday morning from Baltimore northward into New England. The cold will likely persist through the remainder of the week. Conditions will moderate during the weekend.

A storm will likely bring a significant snowfall to parts of the lower Middle Atlantic region. The forecast 500 mb pattern for eastern North America has some similarities to January 29-31, 2010 but is even more suppressed. A period of light snow or flurries is still possible in the New York City area, but such an outcome is not assured.

The models generally show 8" or more snow in Norfolk, but some of the guidance has shifted even farther south and east. Since 1895, there were 17 storms that brought 8" or more snow to Norfolk. The breakdown for NYC snowfall was: 6" or more: 18%; Less than 1": 76%; No measurable snowfall: 53%; No snowfall: 41%.

Currently, the PNA is above +1.000. In January and the first half of February, that would be conducive toward facilitating patterns favorable for potentially major snowfalls in the New York City area. During the second half of February, such a strong PNA works against such snowstorms due to the shorter wave lengths. The storm this week will be no exception.

Overall, generally colder outcome is likely during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal. However, there are growing indications for a major pattern shift during the first week of March. Some of the guidance begins to break down the pattern in the closing days of February. The CFSv2 is currently a cold outlier.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -12.39 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -4.896 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.0° (2.9° below normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

On 2/9/2025 at 8:21 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The upcoming week:

Final outcome: Warmer than had been modeled.

[BlizzLuv]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

The unique part of this winter was the lack of any sustained thaw. Very few days above 50 and I don’t believe any days above 50 with sunshine. Just a cold, dark winter with below average snowfall. 

I ride motorcycles with a group of guys and we usually have few days with that January thaw to ride. Not this year. Some of them got out, but those days were only 40-43 degrees with risk of road salt, so I opted out.

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

10”+ daily snowfalls at State College have become few and far between after 03-04 with the storm track shift for that part of the country.

Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall 
for STATE COLLEGE, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Period of record: 1893-01-01 to 2025-02-17
1	26.6	1994-03-03
2	25.0	1993-03-14
3	17.6	1964-01-13
4	17.5	1942-03-30
-	17.5	1902-03-05
5	17.3	1928-04-28
6	16.5	1961-02-04
7	16.2	1996-01-08
8	15.1	1995-11-15
-	15.1	1965-03-06
9	15.0	2020-12-17
-	15.0	1922-01-11
10	14.8	1928-03-18
11	14.5	1925-01-29
12	14.0	2003-02-17
-	14.0	1936-01-19
13	13.8	1968-11-13
14	13.5	2010-02-06
15	13.0	2002-01-07
-	13.0	1942-03-29
-	13.0	1914-01-04
-	13.0	1894-04-11
16	12.8	1967-03-07
17	12.6	1966-01-23
18	12.5	1992-12-11
-	12.5	1971-03-04
-	12.5	1932-03-28
-	12.5	1923-01-14
19	12.2	1942-03-03
20	11.8	1935-02-22
21	11.7	1940-02-14
22	11.5	2018-11-16
-	11.5	1947-02-21
-	11.5	1920-02-04
23	11.3	2004-02-04
24	11.0	1921-02-20
-	11.0	1915-01-12
25	10.8	1969-12-26
26	10.5	1998-02-24
-	10.5	1978-01-18
-	10.5	1914-02-14
-	10.5	1908-02-19
-	10.5	1908-02-01
-	10.5	1901-04-03
27	10.2	1970-03-13

Their 10-15 year average now can’t be over low to mid-30 inches per winter anymore. So far this winter pretty sure they’re under 20” again. Their long term average is around 45”. The big miller A coast huggers is how they get their bigger totals, otherwise it’s very slim pickings there for anything more than 6” per storm. 3/14/17 was okay there but not great. Miller B-type storms almost always form too late, SWFEs are sleet bombs there, benchmark tracks are too far east, and even clippers often shadow there. It’s also a downslope zone for any rare lake effect or orographic snow which is huge just to their SW in the Laurel Highlands. In colder winters you can have a series of smaller snow events build up somewhat of a snowpack but for snow lovers Central PA from I-80 south especially is a place to stay away from unless those March 1993 and 94 storms come back. Just seems like today the snowstorms all get their act together too late so they nail the Poconos on NE or bad tracks. When I was there winter was dreadfully boring with tons of sleet or piddly few inch snow events. 

[Krs4Lfe]

One thing that I find of note and at the moment is the only thing to note is that there is a very big pool of cold air buildup across the northern tier of the US and Canada. So even though it looks like spring to begin March if we have a timely injection of cold air combined with some storm coming from northern Stream or a SW, then we might be able to see a marginal event in March. However, I wouldn’t count on that considering the way this winter has gone. I think it most likely a shutdown from here on out.

[Northof78]

Gfs now cold through entire run...

[ForestHillWx]

13/-2 here. Colder than I expected. 

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Of course this will be changing dramatically since we're going to have well below normal temps all this week. By the end of the week we'll be solidly below normal for the month. 

While the departures will be cooling off, the coldest anomalies will stay west. Then the temperatures will moderate next week. So nothing too cold by past February standards. But compared to all the +5 Februaries in recent years it will feel cold especially with the stronger winds.

 

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we can put to bed that theory that CC is causing a semi-permanent trough west/ridge east alignment. We'll probably get a decent season before the turn of the decade, which is when we enter a really nice stretch.

Great post by Benchmark.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Great post by Benchmark.

I'm sure this will still be met with an element of resistance.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure this will still be met with an element of resistance.

Wait are you predicting another snowy stretch starting in the 2030s, Ray?

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

13/-2 here. Colder than I expected. 

Weird it's an hour after sunrise and the temperature is still going down-- what happened to that warm late February sun?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wait are you predicting another snowy stretch starting in the 2030s, Ray?

Need to see about next year.....if its an el Nino, I have a hunch its going to be a modest Modoki that will slay for my area and should be decent down there. But I expect the turn of the decade or shortly thereafter to be very favorable, as the Pacific phase shift should be complete and we will be nearing solar min.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Northof78 said:

Gfs now cold through entire run...

It'll probably be closer to normal. And at this time of year the sun is strong enough so temps often over perform when it's sunny. 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Weird it's an hour after sunrise and the temperature is still going down-- what happened to that warm late February sun?

Um it's 730AM? 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Um it's 730AM? 

sunrise 6:44 am and it's 7:40 now, temp just went up one degree here

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Need to see about next year.....if its an el Nino, I have a hunch its going to be a modest Modoki that will slay for my area and should be decent down there. But I expect the turn of the decade or shortly thereafter to be very favorable, as the Pacific phase shift should be complete and we will be nearing solar nadir.

But you're also fighting accelerating CC warming, which in itself is disrupting typical patterns. This winter failed to produce due to the northern stream yet again despite seemingly favorable conditions (strongly negative AO, favorable MJO, +PNA)

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Need to see about next year.....if its an el Nino, I have a hunch its going to be a modest Modoki that will slay for my area and should be decent down there. But I expect the turn of the decade or shortly thereafter to be very favorable, as the Pacific phase shift should be complete and we will be nearing solar min.

That's music for our ears, it could be like the early 2010s with the solar min and the better Pacific.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

But you're also fighting accelerating CC warming, which in itself is disrupting typical patterns. This winter failed to produce due to the northern stream yet again despite seemingly favorable conditions (strongly negative AO, favorable MJO, +PNA)

That's crap. This is what I can't stand about CC zealots....you can't win. Everything is due to CC....pattern is warm? CC. Its cold, but you missed that big storm? CC.

Any guess at which season was my least snowiest on record?

Let me help.

 

 

 

Climate change?

 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

But you're also fighting accelerating CC warming, which in itself is disrupting typical patterns. This winter failed to produce due to the northern stream yet again despite seemingly favorable conditions (strongly negative AO, favorable MJO, +PNA)

You can't assume that this is the case as it's not definitive yet. 

We could very well go back to a favorable pattern in the pack however a degree or two warmer than today. So instead of getting 25 in snow you'll get 26 or 27 and snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sometimes the alignment is just off and cold pattern doesn't end up conducive to large NE snowstorms.

Look at that mean vortex position this season....look familiar???

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

You can't assume that this is the case as it's not definitive yet. 

We could very well go back to a favorable pattern in the pack however a degree or two warmer than today. So instead of getting 25 in snow you'll get 26 or 27 and snow.

Right.....all that is right now is a radical postulation.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's crap. This is what I can't stand about CC zealots....you can't win. Everything is due to CC....pattern is warm? CC. Its cold, but you missed that big storm? CC.

Any guess at which season was my least snowiest on record?

Let me help.

 

 

 

Climate change?

 

it seems like less snowy seasons come after periods of high snowfall

1955-56 to 1968-69 were snowy, 1969-70 to 1975-76 were not snowy, 1976-77 to 1978-79 were snowy, 1979-80 to 1991-92 were not snowy, 1992-93 to 1995-96 were snowy, 1996-97 to 1999-2000 were not snowy, 2000-01 to 2005-06 were snowy, 2006-07 to 2008-09 were not snowy, 2009-10 to 2017-18 were snowy, 2018-19 to 2024-25 not snowy.

 

Obviously there were some mixed periods in there too, but predominantly these thing go in patterns snowy and not snowy.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just to be clear.....CC is absolutely real. I think it if it continues in abated, it will have to evnetually cause a drastic decrease in snowfall, but I don't think we are as close as some are implying given that a lot of this warmth (not all) is observed nocturnally.

I'm not denying CC....I'm arguing is overattributed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

it seems like less snowy seasons come after periods of high snowfall

1955-56 to 1968-69 were snowy, 1969-70 to 1975-76 were not snowy, 1976-77 to 1978-79 were snowy, 1979-80 to 1991-92 were not snowy, 1992-93 to 1995-96 were snowy, 1996-97 to 1999-2000 were not snowy, 2000-01 to 2005-06 were snowy, 2006-07 to 2008-09 were not snowy, 2009-10 to 2017-18 were snowy, 2018-19 to 2024-25 not snowy.

 

Obviously there were some mixed periods in there too, but predominantly these thing go in patterns snowy and not snowy.

 

 

Ding, ding, ding.

This season will be my 7th conecutibve well below average snowfall season.....care to venture a guess at where my mean since 2015 is?

60"....just about normal. Last decade was nuts. 

I do think that CC is causing a more feast or famine type pattern to snowfall distributuon for us......I will say that. I think its augmenting these pre exisitng cycles.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I know Bluewave will come in here and rip me to shreds with 1,001 charts and graphs, but that's my take.