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8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Well since 2018-19 which is 6 winters now, there's been one above average (20-21). Pretty safe to say we've entered a new regime where the Pacific jet destroys almost every setup we have for major storms, and global warming is in the dealer in the background loading the dice. Until this Nina-like background state with the rampaging Pacific jet changes, we'll be stuck in the same place. 

We've entered a new regime from 2000 to 2018 which mirrored 1955 through 1969. The regime will likely match 1970 through 1999. It will be a couple degrees warmer, which may actually help us in the snowfall department as it'll be more moisture and stronger storms if the water temperature theory holds. 

Remember five above average snowfall seasons in 30 years. Central Park's average in that time was a little over 20 inches.

We had cutter suppressed cutter suppressed which we had this year. Not sure anyone can say definitively if global warming has turned a switch and it can never go back or if this is a warmer version of exactly what happened in the past. For posters have only seen 2000 through 2018 yes this looks like Armageddon. However those of us who lived through 1970 through 1999 or at least a portion of that period this is not shocking at all.

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

We've entered a new regime from 2000 to 2018 which mirrored 1955 through 1969. The regime will likely match 1970 through 1999. It will be a couple degrees warmer, which may actually help us in the snowfall department as it'll be more moisture and stronger storms if the water temperature theory holds. 

Remember five above average snowfall seasons in 30 years. Central Park's average in that time was a little over 20 inches.

We had cutter suppressed cutter suppressed which we had this year. Not sure anyone can say definitively if global warming has turned a switch and it can never go back or if this is a warmer version of exactly what happened in the past. Four posters have only seen 2000 through 2018 yes this looks like Armageddon. However those of us who lived through 1970 through 1999 or at least a portion of that period this is not shocking at all.

If our winters temporarily get colder like this one did then you'll know this is right.  Not to the magnitude of what happened in the 70s and 80s but not as mild as the last few have been.  1981-82 was like an ice age winter..... crazy that we lived through April 1982, that will be very difficult to replicate.

 

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Had one last year. Other than a wintry 10 day period in Feb, as we know it just resulted in endless deluges because the continent was flooded in warm air and we had the charged STJ.

That was snowier than this winter just because of that one week in the middle of February when we had a 4 incher and a 6 incher here.

JFK total of 12.8 that winter, so far 11.1 this winter.

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The worst thing is that we go right to Spring in the beginning of March, Our "great looking pattern" that "only begins in mid-Feb with lots of opportunities" is one southern slider storm, no storm at end of month like the pattern hinted at, and then Spring comes beginning of March (which is the best opportunity in March for snow because average temps are still somewhat cold enough.) It's a repeat of the pattern from late Feb 2024, March 2022, and late Feb-March 2023. I'm not sure why we thought this would be any different? Because a 360 hour map shows a trough in the east and ridge in the west? No way to slice this, our coldest winter in years ended up bringing 12" only to NYC. Snowfall wise it's barely better than last year. But yeah lets say "this pattern reminds me of 2013-14" again. 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (1954)
NYC: 71 (1954)
LGA: 69 (2023)
JFK: 64 (2023)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1943)
NYC: 1 (1888)
LGA: 2 (1943)
JFK: 5 (2015)

 

Historical:

 

1898: A series of wildfires swept through South Carolina on February 16-17, 1898. Unconfirmed reports indicate that 14 people were killed, numerous homes and sawmills burned, and up to 3,000,000 acres of forest land were charred from Aiken County, S.C. to Chatham County, N.C., and east to Marlboro County, S.C. There were probably a dozen wildfires raging at the same time driven by a 40 mph wind.

1899 - Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1903 - The temperature at Pokegama Dam MN plunged to 59 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)

 

1903: Pokegama Dam, Minnesota saw three straight days with low temperatures 50° below zero or colder, including 59° below zero on the 15th. The minus 59° established a state record for the lowest measured temperature in Minnesota. Pokegama Dam held the record until February 2nd, 1996 when the temperature fell to 60° below zero at Tower. 

1943 - Record cold prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 43 degrees below zero at Concord NH, and to -39 degrees at Portland ME. The morning low of -32 degrees at Falls Village CT established a state record, yet the afternoon high that day was 20 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1943: Record cold prevailed in the northeastern United States. The mercury plunged to 37°F below zero at Concord, New Hampshire, and to -39 degrees at Portland, Maine. The morning low of -32°F at Falls Village, Connecticut, established a state record. The Connecticut record low was tied on January 22nd, 1961, when Coventry fell to -32°F.

1987 - A winter storm produced snow and ice in the Ohio Valley and the Appalachian Region. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 14 inches around Farmville, while Granville NC reported eight inches of sleet and ice. Freezing rain in eastern North Carolina caused extensive damage to power lines. Gales lashed the coast of Virginia and North Carolina. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Santa Ana winds in southern California gusted to 50 mph in the Rancho Cucamonga area. Quiet weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A surge of arctic air produced all-time record high barometric pressure readings of 31.08 inches at Duluth MN, 30.97 inches at Chicago IL and 30.94 inches at South Bend IN. Readings of 31.00 inches at Milwaukee WI and 30.98 inches at Rockford IL tied their all-time records. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southeastern U.S. Highs of 81 degrees at Athens GA, 87 degrees at Charleston SC, 85 degrees at Macon GA, and 86 degrees at Savannah GA were records for February. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Strong thunderstorms developing ahead of an arctic cold front produced severe weather across the southeastern U.S. between mid morning on the 15th and early evening on the 16th. Thunderstorms spawned thirteen tornadoes, including one which, prior to dawn on the 16th, injured eleven persons near Carrollton GA. There were also 121 reports of large hail or damaging winds. A late afternoon thunderstorm on the 15th produced baseball size hail at Jackson MS, and prior to dawn on the 16th, a thunderstorm produced high winds which injured four persons at Goodwater AL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1989: A surge of arctic air on February 16-17th produced all-time record high barometric pressure readings of 31.08 inches at Duluth, Minnesota, 30.97 inches at Chicago, Illinois, and 30.94 inches at South Bend, Indiana. Readings of 31.00 inches at Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and 30.98 inches at Rockford, Illinois, tied their all-time records. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southeastern U.S. Highs of 81 degrees at Athens, Georgia, 87 degrees at Charleston, South Carolina, 85 degrees at Macon, Georgia, and 86 degrees at Savannah, Georgia, were records for February.

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3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (1954)
NYC: 71 (1954)
LGA: 69 (2023)
JFK: 64 (2023)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1943)
NYC: 1 (1888)
LGA: 2 (1943)
JFK: 5 (2015)

 

Historical:

 

1898: A series of wildfires swept through South Carolina on February 16-17, 1898. Unconfirmed reports indicate that 14 people were killed, numerous homes and sawmills burned, and up to 3,000,000 acres of forest land were charred from Aiken County, S.C. to Chatham County, N.C., and east to Marlboro County, S.C. There were probably a dozen wildfires raging at the same time driven by a 40 mph wind.

1899 - Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1903 - The temperature at Pokegama Dam MN plunged to 59 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)

 

1903: Pokegama Dam, Minnesota saw three straight days with low temperatures 50° below zero or colder, including 59° below zero on the 15th. The minus 59° established a state record for the lowest measured temperature in Minnesota. Pokegama Dam held the record until February 2nd, 1996 when the temperature fell to 60° below zero at Tower. 

1943 - Record cold prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 43 degrees below zero at Concord NH, and to -39 degrees at Portland ME. The morning low of -32 degrees at Falls Village CT established a state record, yet the afternoon high that day was 20 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1943: Record cold prevailed in the northeastern United States. The mercury plunged to 37°F below zero at Concord, New Hampshire, and to -39 degrees at Portland, Maine. The morning low of -32°F at Falls Village, Connecticut, established a state record. The Connecticut record low was tied on January 22nd, 1961, when Coventry fell to -32°F.

1987 - A winter storm produced snow and ice in the Ohio Valley and the Appalachian Region. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 14 inches around Farmville, while Granville NC reported eight inches of sleet and ice. Freezing rain in eastern North Carolina caused extensive damage to power lines. Gales lashed the coast of Virginia and North Carolina. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Santa Ana winds in southern California gusted to 50 mph in the Rancho Cucamonga area. Quiet weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A surge of arctic air produced all-time record high barometric pressure readings of 31.08 inches at Duluth MN, 30.97 inches at Chicago IL and 30.94 inches at South Bend IN. Readings of 31.00 inches at Milwaukee WI and 30.98 inches at Rockford IL tied their all-time records. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southeastern U.S. Highs of 81 degrees at Athens GA, 87 degrees at Charleston SC, 85 degrees at Macon GA, and 86 degrees at Savannah GA were records for February. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Strong thunderstorms developing ahead of an arctic cold front produced severe weather across the southeastern U.S. between mid morning on the 15th and early evening on the 16th. Thunderstorms spawned thirteen tornadoes, including one which, prior to dawn on the 16th, injured eleven persons near Carrollton GA. There were also 121 reports of large hail or damaging winds. A late afternoon thunderstorm on the 15th produced baseball size hail at Jackson MS, and prior to dawn on the 16th, a thunderstorm produced high winds which injured four persons at Goodwater AL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1989: A surge of arctic air on February 16-17th produced all-time record high barometric pressure readings of 31.08 inches at Duluth, Minnesota, 30.97 inches at Chicago, Illinois, and 30.94 inches at South Bend, Indiana. Readings of 31.00 inches at Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and 30.98 inches at Rockford, Illinois, tied their all-time records. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southeastern U.S. Highs of 81 degrees at Athens, Georgia, 87 degrees at Charleston, South Carolina, 85 degrees at Macon, Georgia, and 86 degrees at Savannah, Georgia, were records for February.

this had to have caused a lot of damage like the flooding we had in the rainstorm after the January 1996 blizzard

 

1899 - Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

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Looks like the December under 4” La Niña snowfall pattern is working out again at spots like Newark. The only year in the last 30 years that missed was 16-17. It’s been a pretty reliable early indicator back to the 1990s on whether it would be a below or above average snowfall season. La Niña snowfall and storm tracks usually get established early in the season. But this isn’t the case for El Niños.
 

Newark December La Niña snowfall and seasonal totals

24-25….3.5”…..13.4” so far

22-23….0.1”…….2.7”

21-22…..0.1”……17.9”

20-21….11.9”…..45.7”

17-18…..7.7”…….39.7”

16-17…..3.4”……30.0”

11-12…..0.0……..8.8”

10-11…..24.5”….68.2”

08-09….8.3”…..27.0”

07-08…..3.9”…..14.6”

05-06…..11.0”…..37.9”

00-01……14.9”….39.3”

99-00……T………18.4”

98-99…..1.2”…….12.8”

95-96…12.8”……78.7”

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19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the December under 4” La Niña snowfall pattern is working out again at spots like Newark. The only year in the last 30 years that missed was 16-17. It’s been a pretty reliable early indicator back to the 1990s on whether it would be a below or above average snowfall season. La Niña snowfall and storm tracks usually get established early in the season. But this isn’t the case for El Niños.
 

Newark December La Niña snowfall and seasonal totals

24-25….3.5”…..13.4” so far

22-23….0.1”…….2.7”

21-22…..0.1”……17.9”

20-21….11.9”…..45.7”

17-18…..7.7”…….39.7”

16-17…..3.4”……30.0”

11-12…..0.0……..8.8”

10-11…..24.5”….68.2”

08-09….8.3”…..27.0”

07-08…..3.9”…..14.6”

05-06…..11.0”…..37.9”

00-01……14.9”….39.3”

99-00……T………18.4”

98-99…..1.2”…….12.8”

95-96…12.8”……78.7”

But the snowy la ninas are more snowy than snowy el ninos because a snowy la nina has more of a potential to be a beginning to end snowy winter.

the really snowy el ninos, like 02-03 also have a lot of snow in December, so that is one of the few beginning to end snowy el nino winters.

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2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah it is mind-boggling to think Central Park had five above average snowfall seasons in 30 years. Imagine what this board is going to do 10 years from now when we've had only one above every snowfall season in that time frame lol.

To me it's just reliving my childhood.

Don't they calculate average snowfall like average temperatures?  

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

End of February/early March.

What sucks the most about this storm going OTS is that It was probably our last chance for snow for the rest of winter. March looking nice and toasty. 3 months of cold and all we get is 12” from it. No wonder the warmer seasons of 2024 and 2023 has almost nothing. 

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The temperature will rise this evening until 7 pm - 9 pm. Afterward, it will begin to fall. Although JFK Airport has reached 52° this afternoon, the mild air has had difficulty pushing northward into Manhattan, northern Queens, and the Bronx. Through 4:30 pm, the high temperatures at Central Park and LaGuardia Airport have been 41°. The temperature at both locations could peak in the middle or even upper 40s, but it appears unlikely that they will reach 50°.

In the wake of the storm, it will turn sharply colder tomorrow. Winds could also gust past 50 mph in parts of the area.

Temperatures could fall into the teens on Tuesday and/or Wednesday morning from Baltimore northward into New England. The cold will likely persist through the remainder of the week.

A storm could bring snow to parts of the East Coast after the middle of next week. The forecast 500 mb pattern for eastern North America has some similarities to January 29-31, 2010 but is even more suppressed. However, there remains a degree of uncertainty. By late tomorrow, the forecast accuracy of the synoptic details will become more skillful.

In terms of the guidance, the 12z ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET are in good agreement about the focus of the heaviest snows. Those models show 8" or more snow in Norfolk. Since 1895, there were 17 storms that brought 8" or more snow to Norfolk. The breakdown for NYC snowfall was: 6" or more: 18%; Less than 1": 76%; No measurable snowfall: 53%; No snowfall: 41%. Moreover, the three models showed less than 2" snow at Philadelphia. Using the Norfolk data, there were 11 cases in the subset that had less than 2" at Philadelphia. The New York City breakdown was: Less than 1": 100%; No measurable snowfall: 73%; No snowfall: 64%.

Overall, generally colder outcome is likely during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal. However, there are growing indications for a major pattern shift during the first week of March.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -0.58 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -4.896 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.7° (3.2° below normal).

 

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1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

What sucks the most about this storm going OTS is that It was probably our last chance for snow for the rest of winter. March looking nice and toasty. 3 months of cold and all we get is 12” from it. No wonder the warmer seasons of 2024 and 2023 has almost nothing. 

It's too soon to be sure that this was the last snowfall opportunity for the remainder of the winter. Moreover, the pattern change is not yet cast in stone. It looks like early March is more favored than the end of February and there could still be some opportunities for snowfall.

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5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature will rise this evening until 7 pm - 9 pm. Afterward, it will begin to fall. Although JFK Airport has reached 52° this afternoon, the mild air has had difficulty pushing northward into Manhattan, northern Queens, and the Bronx. Through 4:30 pm, the high temperatures at Central Park and LaGuardia Airport have been 41°. The temperature at both locations could peak in the middle or even upper 40s, but it appears unlikely that they will reach 50°.

In the wake of the storm, it will turn sharply colder tomorrow. Winds could also gust past 50 mph in parts of the area.

Temperatures could fall into the teens on Tuesday and/or Wednesday morning from Baltimore northward into New England. The cold will likely persist through the remainder of the week.

A storm could bring snow to parts of the East Coast after the middle of next week. The forecast 500 mb pattern for eastern North America has some similarities to January 29-31, 2010 but is even more suppressed. However, there remains a degree of uncertainty. By late tomorrow, the forecast accuracy of the synoptic details will become more skillful.

In terms of the guidance, the 12z ECMWF, GGEM, and UKMET are in good agreement about the focus of the heaviest snows. Those models show 8" or more snow in Norfolk. Since 1895, there were 17 storms that brought 8" or more snow to Norfolk. The breakdown for NYC snowfall was: 6" or more: 24%; Less than 1": 76%; No measurable snowfall: 53%; No snowfall: 41%. Moreover, the three models showed less than 2" snow at Philadelphia. Using the Norfolk data, there were 11 cases in the subset that had less than 2" at Philadelphia. The New York City breakdown was: Less than 1": 100%; No measurable snowfall: 73%; No snowfall: 64%.

Overall, generally colder outcome is likely during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal. However, there are growing indications for a major pattern shift during the first week of March.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -0.58 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -4.896 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.7° (3.2° below normal).

 

Since 1895, there were 17 storms that brought 8" or more snow to Norfolk. The breakdown for NYC snowfall was: 6" or more: 24%; Less than 1": 76%;

 

Don, this means there was no snowfall between 1 and 6 inches-- they were all either 6+ or under 1 inch?

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7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

How many times are you going to repeat the same lies over and over again? You are a troll and a very bad one at that. I never had a blowtorch winter. That’s a lie, typical for you. I said +2 - +4 for Dec-Mar averaged out. That was my forecast back in November. That’s hardly a blowtorch and I even said that. I never see you continue anything at all to this board other than your token passive-aggressive, trolling commentary. I’ve never seen you put a forecast out. Get a new routine, it’s old 

I prob went like +20

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On 2/6/2025 at 10:24 AM, LibertyBell said:

Jim Cantore made a bold call today, he said by next Friday, all the snowfall deficits all along the I-95 corridor will be gone.

 

Just did a check-the only city at/over average is DC. Every other is below to well below. Safe to say this was a huge bust.

Philly-50% of average to date

Trenton-74% of average to date

Central Park: 62% of average to date

JFK: 68% of average to date

LGA: 75% of average to date

BDR: 85% of average to date

ISP: 55% of average to date

BDL: 61% of average to date

PVD: 62% of average to date

BOS: 86% of average to date (SWFE is a good pattern for I-90 and they had 2 good ones now)

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14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Since 1895, there were 17 storms that brought 8" or more snow to Norfolk. The breakdown for NYC snowfall was: 6" or more: 24%; Less than 1": 76%;

 

Don, this means there was no snowfall between 1 and 6 inches-- they were all either 6+ or under 1 inch?

I had a typo that was fixed subsequent to your reply. 18%, not 24%, were 6" or more in NYC.

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The EPS has diverged even farther from the clusters for second-half February 6" or above snowstorms in New York City. The combination of differences in key features and a positively-tilted trough in the Ohio Valley favors an out-to-sea track well south of the region. Things can still change somewhat in coming days to allow for some snow in the NYC area. However, a major snowstorm is now a low probability scenario.

EPS compared to Cluster 3:

image.png.a61a1c4e486dd836efe886168c788c9e.png

Clusters:

image.png.4bf4ca218ca4e56ebccde45e81224cb7.png

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