February 2025

[MJO812]

30 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Finally, at long last, it looks like we are going to actually see a legit warm up in March. Good ensemble agreement now. Verbatim, temps we haven’t seen since early-mid November

Stop looking way ahead on the models. Been burned many times this winter. A warmup will happen once the mjo is out of the cold phases but not now.

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Stop looking way ahead on the models. Been burned many times this winter. A warmup will happen once the mjo is out of the cold phases but not now.

Now??? What are you talking about??? Did you read my post, I said MARCH. Someone dares to mention warm up and you get triggered. So I guess we’re not allowed to discuss the future on this board unless it’s to forecast cold and snow, March is less than 2 weeks away

[SnoSki14]

33 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Stop looking way ahead on the models. Been burned many times this winter. A warmup will happen once the mjo is out of the cold phases but not now.

He had a blowtorch winter for all and was harping on a typical Nina Feb with +EPO/AO/NAO & -PNA pretty much all winter. 

The only thing that worked out in his favor is our rather low snowfall totals. 

[vegan_edible]

34 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Now??? What are you talking about??? Did you read my post, I said MARCH. Someone dares to mention warm up and you get triggered. So I guess we’re not allowed to discuss the future on this board unless it’s to forecast cold and snow, March is less than 2 weeks away

as much as i love winter, i call it quits last day of feb. you can't honestly tell me that a 28 degree march would be fun. lets sneak one more event in over the next 2 weeks and get back at it in late november

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

He had a blowtorch winter for all and was harping on a typical Nina Feb with +EPO/AO/NAO & -PNA pretty much all winter. 

The only thing that worked out in his favor is our rather low snowfall totals. 

How many times are you going to repeat the same lies over and over again? You are a troll and a very bad one at that. I never had a blowtorch winter. That’s a lie, typical for you. I said +2 - +4 for Dec-Mar averaged out. That was my forecast back in November. That’s hardly a blowtorch and I even said that. I never see you continue anything at all to this board other than your token passive-aggressive, trolling commentary. I’ve never seen you put a forecast out. Get a new routine, it’s old 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Finally, at long last, it looks like we are going to actually see a legit warm up in March. Good ensemble agreement now. Verbatim, temps we haven’t seen since early-mid November

Yes, a big pattern change appears likely.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Finally, at long last, it looks like we are going to actually see a legit warm up in March. Good ensemble agreement now. Verbatim, temps we haven’t seen since early-mid November

Yeah this weird weather has lasted too long

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, a big pattern change appears likely.

I am ready for spring. Disappointing that the storm this week is not looking as good as it did, would have been nice to end the winter with a large storm.

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, vegan_edible said:

as much as i love winter, i call it quits last day of feb. you can't honestly tell me that a 28 degree march would be fun. lets sneak one more event in over the next 2 weeks and get back at it in late november

Especially when there's no legit thaw in winter, which definitely isn't normal.  Typically we should get at least one week in the 50s sometime in the middle of winter before the pattern reloads, we didn't get that at all this winter.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I am ready for spring. Disappointing that the storm this week is not looking as good as it did, would have been nice to end the winter with a large storm.

People criticize winters like 1966-67 and 1995-96 because of the two to three week thaws they had in January, well guess what, you need that kind of thaw to reload the pattern and get a lot of snow.  People who think that having wall to wall cold is a good way to get a lot of snow don't have a clue about our climatology, having a thaw in the middle of winter is vital to a long snowfall season.

 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, a big pattern change appears likely.

When?

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

People criticize winters like 1966-67 and 1995-96 because of the two to three week thaws they had in January, well guess what, you need that kind of thaw to reload the pattern and get a lot of snow.  People who think that having wall to wall cold is a good way to get a lot of snow don't have a clue about our climatology, having a thaw in the middle of winter is vital to a long snowfall season.

 

I did not mind this winter, we had great snow cover the entire winter in numerous events to track. Even though this upcoming event will likely be a disappointment it will probably give a light snowfall of wonderful inches which is on par for the rest of the year and yet another storm which whitens the ground.

Personally at 50% leverage. Central Park is 50% of the 30-year 1970 through 1999 average. 

We keep talking about extinct clippers coastal huggers of years ago, now extinct benchmark tracks, it was good to see our first 1980s cold season suppressed cutter track we thought was extinct and took 40 plus years to come back LOL.

Also was refreshing to see that New Orleans and Florida can still get historic snowfalls in the warming climate. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I did not mind this winter, we had great snow cover the entire winter in numerous events to track. Even though this upcoming event will likely be a disappointment it will probably give a light snowfall of wonderful inches which is on par for the rest of the year and yet another storm which whitens the ground.

Personally at 50% leverage. Central Park is 50% of the 30-year 1970 through 1999 average. 

We keep talking about extinct clippers coastal huggers of years ago, now extinct benchmark tracks, it was good to see our first 1980s cold season suppressed cutter track we thought was extinct and took 40 plus years to come back LOL.

Also was refreshing to see that New Orleans and Florida can still get historic snowfalls in the warming climate. 

I don't think that's the way to get a lot of snow though.  It's more like 2008-09.  The way to get a lot of snow here is to get a lot of snow and then warmer weather, melt all that snow, and then get another big snowstorm.  Even 2010-11 which did have a lot of snow without a thaw in between, was a winter that ended at the end of January.  I like the other kind of winter much better, which is get a big snowstorm and then temperatures in the 50s and 60s and then another big snowstorm a month later.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

When?

the beginning of March, finally.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't think that's the way to get a lot of snow though.  It's more like 2008-09.  The way to get a lot of snow here is to get a lot of snow and then warmer weather, melt all that snow, and then get another big snowstorm.  Even 2010-11 which did have a lot of snow without a thaw in between, was a winter that ended at the end of January.  I like the other kind of winter much better, which is get a big snowstorm and then temperatures in the 50s and 60s and then another big snowstorm a month later.

Agreed I'm just looking at 1970 through 1999 for a blueprint of what we're going through now where the winters were much more tame. I can't expect 2000 through 2018 whether to come to the door at this point.

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the beginning of March, finally.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed I'm just looking at 1970 through 1999 for a blueprint of what we're going through now where the winters were much more tame. I can't expect 2000 through 2018 whether to come to the door at this point.

in that period you have to hope for a winter like 1977-78 or 1993-94 or 1995-96.  It's possible, but like only 10% of winters were like that back then.

[Dark Star]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I did not mind this winter, we had great snow cover the entire winter in numerous events to track. Even though this upcoming event will likely be a disappointment it will probably give a light snowfall of wonderful inches which is on par for the rest of the year and yet another storm which whitens the ground.

Personally at 50% leverage. Central Park is 50% of the 30-year 1970 through 1999 average. 

We keep talking about extinct clippers coastal huggers of years ago, now extinct benchmark tracks, it was good to see our first 1980s cold season suppressed cutter track we thought was extinct and took 40 plus years to come back LOL.

Also was refreshing to see that New Orleans and Florida can still get historic snowfalls in the warming climate. 

Despite only 10.3" IMBY this season, we had snow cover a substantial amount of the time.  And I actually saw kids playing hockey on a local pond!

[Dark Star]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed I'm just looking at 1970 through 1999 for a blueprint of what we're going through now where the winters were much more tame. I can't expect 2000 through 2018 whether to come to the door at this point.

With global warming, I don't think there is a "blueprint" for an active snow season.  

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Dark Star said:

Despite only 10.3" IMBY this season, we had snow cover a substantial amount of the time.  And I actually saw kids playing hockey on a local pond!

Yeah I'm at 15.55 for the year (probably where it's going to end) but it felt more wintry than I could imagine that's snow total could bring.

Including the October storm for the epic mild winter of 11/12 I ended up with 11.5, only 4 inches difference then this year yet it's night and day in wintery appeal.

[EastonSN+]

Just now, Dark Star said:

With global warming, I don't think there is a "blueprint" for an active snow season.  

I tend to disagree here. I'm tracking the snowfall average for Central Park for 1970 through 1999 and we are about 5 and 1/2 in inches below that 30-year average, however we have seen this year that we are nowhere close to being too warm to snow. Could we be two to three inches less than that 30 year average sure, however we are still seeing the same cutter suppressed pattern of that time period with cold air.

Heck we just saw 2000 through 2018 mirror 1955 through 1969.

We shall see I'll keep tracking.

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

in that period you have to hope for a winter like 1977-78 or 1993-94 or 1995-96.  It's possible, but like only 10% of winters were like that back then.

Yeah it is mind-boggling to think Central Park had five above average snowfall seasons in 30 years. Imagine what this board is going to do 10 years from now when we've had only one above every snowfall season in that time frame lol.

To me it's just reliving my childhood.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I tend to disagree here. I'm tracking the snowfall average for Central Park for 1970 through 1999 and we are about 5 and 1/2 in inches below that 30-year average, however we have seen this year that we are nowhere close to being too warm to snow. Could we be two to three inches less than that 30 year average sure, however we are still seeing the same cutter suppressed pattern of that time period with cold air.

Heck we just saw 2000 through 2018 mirror 1955 through 1969.

We shall see I'll keep tracking.

Yep tons of wasted cold air this year watching storms slide to our south. 80s redux

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah it is mind-boggling to think Central Park had five above average snowfall seasons in 30 years. Imagine what this board is going to do 10 years from now when we've had only one above every snowfall season in that time frame lol.

To me it's just reliving my childhood.

I was too young to even remember 1977-78 that clearly, so I had to wait for 1993-94 and 1995-96 when  I was no longer a child lol.  Time passes by -so- slowly at that age, each year is like a lifetime when you're little.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I tend to disagree here. I'm tracking the snowfall average for Central Park for 1970 through 1999 and we are about 5 and 1/2 in inches below that 30-year average, however we have seen this year that we are nowhere close to being too warm to snow. Could we be two to three inches less than that 30 year average sure, however we are still seeing the same cutter suppressed pattern of that time period with cold air.

Heck we just saw 2000 through 2018 mirror 1955 through 1969.

We shall see I'll keep tracking.

Yeah, I'm not saying it's too warm to snow, I'm saying that a long term pattern of months of cold weather isn't conducive to large snowstorms.  To get large snowstorms you also need thaws in between which lets the pattern reload otherwise the same thing keeps happening over and over.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I was too young to even remember 1977-78 that clearly, so I had to wait for 1993-94 and 1995-96 when  I was no longer a child lol.  Time passes by -so- slowly at that age, each year is like a lifetime when you're little.

 

Yeah my recollection starts around 1983 I was extremely small but I remember the snow piles being massive.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah it is mind-boggling to think Central Park had five above average snowfall seasons in 30 years. Imagine what this board is going to do 10 years from now when we've had only one above every snowfall season in that time frame lol.

To me it's just reliving my childhood.

Well since 2018-19 which is 6 winters now, there's been one above average (20-21). Pretty safe to say we've entered a new regime where the Pacific jet destroys almost every setup we have for major storms, and global warming is in the dealer in the background loading the dice. Until this Nina-like background state with the rampaging Pacific jet changes, we'll be stuck in the same place. 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah I'm at 15.55 for the year (probably where it's going to end) but it felt more wintry than I could imagine that's snow total could bring.

Including the October storm for the epic mild winter of 11/12 I ended up with 11.5, only 4 inches difference then this year yet it's night and day in wintery appeal.

Yeah on the WINTER SEVERITY INDEX, this is considered an average winter for us (temperature, snowcover, snowfall are all factored in).

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah my recollection starts around 1983 I was extremely small but I remember the snow piles being massive.

April 1982 and February 1983 were my first real snowstorm memories and I remember having snow up to my knees and wondering if this is what a real snowstorm is like lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Well since 2018-19 which is 6 winters now, there's been one above average (20-21). Pretty safe to say we've entered a new regime where the Pacific jet destroys almost every setup we have for major storms, and global warming is in the dealer in the background loading the dice. Until this Nina-like background state with the rampaging Pacific jet changes, we'll be stuck in the same place. 

we need another strong el nino