EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Even more extreme -5.000 or below values have occurred in back-to-back months. Winter 1976-77 saw the AO fall to -5 or below in December and again in January. Winter 2009-10 saw the AO fall to -5 or below in December, January, and again in February. Thanks. That's crazy for 09/10. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 How does the pattern look going forward after any potential wintry mischief next week? La Nina’s usually feature a quick shift to Spring, I don’t see why there would be anything different this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. That's crazy for 09/10. that was an unreal 1800s kind of winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said: How does the pattern look going forward after any potential wintry mischief next week? La Nina’s usually feature a quick shift to Spring, I don’t see why there would be anything different this year we have another chance at a snowstorm at the end of February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 53 minutes ago, bluewave said: The is -5 -AO is deviating from the previous ones in that we are getting such a strong cutter maxing out under 970mb at the time of the peak blocking this weekend. Past instances had either a major snowstorm or a suppressed storm track at the time of the strongest blocking. But the good news is that many of these record blocks were two part events. Storm threats at the time of peak blocking and then another storm threat during the retrogression of the block back into Canada. So the storm we are all tracking for next week is occurring during the retrogression phase of the block. Plus there were other years that had storms post retrogression also. The other issue is that we have had a higher frequency of these events since the Arctic shifted to its warmer state in 2007. So it’s possible the added warmth there is making these event more frequent. Plus this most recent event originated back in January with the record low ice on Hudson Bay leading to the record low pressure and wave break. We have also been noticing very large swings in the AO from high to low over shorter periods of time. So there have also been periods with more frequent positive readings also. So a much more volatile index and wavelength pattern as the Arctic has warmed. All winter months since 1960 with -4.8 or stronger -AO blocks February 2021 January 2016 March 2013 December 2010 February 2010 January 2010 December 2009 February 2001 January 1985 February 1978 January 1977 December 1976 March 1970 February 1969 January 1966 February 1963 wow thanks Chris, maybe these go in cycles too-- there was a cluster in the 60s and another one in the late 70s. But only one in the 80s and then none at all for 16 years until 2001! I'm surprised we didn't have any at all in the 90s considering how snowy it was in 93-94 and 95-96!! None in the 00s after 2001 either, I'm shocked we didn't have any between 02-03 and 04-05!! Early 10s had another cluster and then of course the one associated with the big blizzard in January 2016. February 2021-- was that the one associated with the Groundhogs Day snowstorm? So this strong block can have lingering effects with more snowstorm possibilities right to the end of February before the pattern changes in early March? From the above list-- big snowstorms associated with big blocks since 1960: February 1969 February 1978 December 2009 February 2010 (multiple) December 2010 January 2016 February 2021 From the above list-- big arctic outbreaks associated with big blocks since 1960 February 1963 January 1977 January 1985 I added February 1963 after I read this https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2013/01/baby-its-cold-outside-a-history-of-single-digit-temperatures-in-new-york-city Temperatures of zero or below have been reported just eleven times since 1970, with the coldest reading of 2° below zero occurring on three occasions: Jan. 17, 1977; Jan. 21, 1985; and Jan. 19, 1994. There has been just one sub-zero reading this century and it occurred during the mild winter of 2016, when the mercury dropped to -1° on Valentine's Day. Not only was it a record for the date, it was also the first below zero reading since 1994, the first to occur in February since 1963, and the latest date for a sub-zero reading since 1934. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Models increasing the wind threat. High wind watch up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 47 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow thanks Chris, maybe these go in cycles too-- there was a cluster in the 60s and another one in the late 70s. But only one in the 80s and then none at all for 16 years until 2001! I'm surprised we didn't have any at all in the 90s considering how snowy it was in 93-94 and 95-96!! None in the 00s after 2001 either, I'm shocked we didn't have any between 02-03 and 04-05!! Early 10s had another cluster and then of course the one associated with the big blizzard in January 2016. February 2021-- was that the one associated with the Groundhogs Day snowstorm? So this strong block can have lingering effects with more snowstorm possibilities right to the end of February before the pattern changes in early March? From the above list-- big snowstorms associated with big blocks since 1960: February 1969 February 1978 December 2009 February 2010 (multiple) December 2010 January 2016 February 2021 From the above list-- big arctic outbreaks associated with big blocks since 1960 February 1963 January 1977 January 1985 I added February 1963 after I read this https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2013/01/baby-its-cold-outside-a-history-of-single-digit-temperatures-in-new-york-city Temperatures of zero or below have been reported just eleven times since 1970, with the coldest reading of 2° below zero occurring on three occasions: Jan. 17, 1977; Jan. 21, 1985; and Jan. 19, 1994. There has been just one sub-zero reading this century and it occurred during the mild winter of 2016, when the mercury dropped to -1° on Valentine's Day. Not only was it a record for the date, it was also the first below zero reading since 1994, the first to occur in February since 1963, and the latest date for a sub-zero reading since 1934. found this, it's quite interesting https://www.nyhistory.org/blogs/a-word-about-the-weather Meteorology record of George Hodgsden, showing the coldest daylight temperatures ever recorded in new York City on January 10, 1859. Hodgsden Weather Diary, MS 1828 According to the Encyclopedia of New York, merchant William Laight and his son Henry were the first to maintain an extended record of New York weather, beginning in 1788. The Society has the weather diaries of Henry, covering 1795-1803 and 1816-1822, noting the temperature, wind, precipitation and/or clouds, lunar phase and a brief entry about the day’s events. Similar data were recorded by a variety of people, including farmers, seamen, and military officers, and for any number of reasons, as shown by the “Thermometrical Observations” kept by George B. Hodgsden, secretary for the Knickerbocker Fire Insurance Co. In that diary is recorded the coldest month on record, January 1857, and the coldest daytime temperature on January 10, 1859, during which the mercury remained below zero the entire day. By the second half of the nineteenth century, numerous organizations were keeping records, among them was Dr. Daniel Draper, who organized the New York Meteorological Observatory in 1869. Although Central Park’s meteorological observations have long been associated with Belvedere Castle, the NYMO first headquartered at the Arsenal. “New York State Arsenal”, the first home to the New York Meteorological Observatory. Manual of the Corporation of the City of New York. The Council: New York, 1850. An interesting side story is an 1825 New York State law requiring academies accredited by the Regents of the University of the State of New York to report meteorological observations to the Regents. Those data were subsequently compiled and made publicly available through publication, such as in the volume shown below. The practice is also demonstrated by neatly-kept volumes that appear in the records of Brooklyn’s Erasmus Hall High School. Results of a Series of Meteorological Observations… Albany: Weed Parson & Company, 1855. Erasmus Hall High School Records, MS 201 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: found this, it's quite interesting https://www.nyhistory.org/blogs/a-word-about-the-weather Meteorology record of George Hodgsden, showing the coldest daylight temperatures ever recorded in new York City on January 10, 1859. Hodgsden Weather Diary, MS 1828 According to the Encyclopedia of New York, merchant William Laight and his son Henry were the first to maintain an extended record of New York weather, beginning in 1788. The Society has the weather diaries of Henry, covering 1795-1803 and 1816-1822, noting the temperature, wind, precipitation and/or clouds, lunar phase and a brief entry about the day’s events. Similar data were recorded by a variety of people, including farmers, seamen, and military officers, and for any number of reasons, as shown by the “Thermometrical Observations” kept by George B. Hodgsden, secretary for the Knickerbocker Fire Insurance Co. In that diary is recorded the coldest month on record, January 1857, and the coldest daytime temperature on January 10, 1859, during which the mercury remained below zero the entire day. By the second half of the nineteenth century, numerous organizations were keeping records, among them was Dr. Daniel Draper, who organized the New York Meteorological Observatory in 1869. Although Central Park’s meteorological observations have long been associated with Belvedere Castle, the NYMO first headquartered at the Arsenal. “New York State Arsenal”, the first home to the New York Meteorological Observatory. Manual of the Corporation of the City of New York. The Council: New York, 1850. An interesting side story is an 1825 New York State law requiring academies accredited by the Regents of the University of the State of New York to report meteorological observations to the Regents. Those data were subsequently compiled and made publicly available through publication, such as in the volume shown below. The practice is also demonstrated by neatly-kept volumes that appear in the records of Brooklyn’s Erasmus Hall High School. Results of a Series of Meteorological Observations… Albany: Weed Parson & Company, 1855. Erasmus Hall High School Records, MS 201 For those who are interested, Results of a Series of Meteorological Observations, can be found at: https://archive.org/details/cu31924000010268/page/n27/mode/2up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 35 / 16 additional 050 - 1.00 of precip to add to the monthly (1.50 - 2.00) any snow goes to rain more N/NW. Sunday warmest of the next 10 and first 50s of the month for some and since Feb 3 for the rest. Cold and potentially very snowy period this week. Cold 2/17 - 2/23 with the storm possibly in between Wed- Fri (AM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Records: Highs: EWR: 76 (1949) NYC: 73 (1949) LGA: 74 (1949) JFK: 64 (1954) Lows: EWR: -7 (1943) NYC: -8 (1943) LGA: -7 (1943) JFK: 5 (2015) Historical: 1895 - A big Gulf snowstorm produced six inches at Brownsville TX and Mobile AL, 15 inches at Galveston TX, and 24 inches of snow at Rayne LA in 24 hours. Snow fell at the very mouth of the Mississippi River. Houston TX received 22 inches of snow, and nine inches blanketed New Orleans LA. (David Ludlum) 1936 - The temperature at Parshall ND plunged to 60 degrees below zero to establish a state record. On the 6th of July that same year the temperature at Steele ND hit 121 degrees, also a state record. (David Ludlum) 1982 - An intense cyclone off the Atlantic coast capsized a drilling rig killing 84 persons, and sank a Soviet freighter resulting in 33 more deaths. The cyclone produced 80 mph winds which whipped the water into waves fifty feet high. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A storm crossing the central U.S. produced severe thunderstorms which spawned tornadoes in Louisiana and Mississippi. Tornadoes injured four persons at Pierre Pass LA, three persons at Tangipahoa LA, two persons at Lexie MS and two persons at Nicholson MS. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 100 mph killed one person south of Sulphur LA. Jackson MS was drenched with 1.5 inches of rain in ten minutes. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Low pressure brought heavy snow to parts of Michigan, with eleven inches reported at Rogers City. A cold front crossing the Northern Rockies produced wind gusts to 74 mph at Livingston MT, and created blizzard conditions in Idaho. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thirty-seven cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Atlanta GA was a February record. Highs of 79 degrees at Chattanooga TN, 84 degrees at Columbia SC and 85 degrees at New Orleans LA equalled February records. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Snow, sleet and freezing rain along an arctic cold front prevailed from the north central U.S. to the Northern Atlantic Coast Region. High winds created near blizzard conditions in southern Wyoming, closing Interstate 80, while up to eleven inches of snow fell across central Minnesota. 1990 - Heavy snow also blanketed the Northern Atlantic Coast States, with ten inches reported at Buffalo NY and Mount Washington NH. Freezing rain over southern New England knocked out electricity to more than 10,000 homes in the western suburbs of Boston MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2000: Amarillo, Texas, set unusual temperature records today. The high of 82 degrees smashed the old daily high of 76 degrees set in 1921. Likewise, the morning low of 41 degrees broke the old high-low record of 40 degrees, established in 1921. 2004 - Up to 11 inches of snow fell in areas south of Nashville, TN, causing power outages and producing hazardous driving conditions. The Weather Doctor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 NYC: Feb 15-16, 1958: 7.9 inches of snowfall EWR: Feb 15-16 : 13.3 inches of snowfall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Lots of precip - beyond today/tomorrow will fall in a frozen variey 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Lots of precip - beyond today/tomorrow will fall in a frozen varieyAt the very least, really good for the drought. April is prime wildfire season, so all sorts of precipitation is beneficial.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 hours ago, SACRUS said: Records: Highs: EWR: 76 (1949) NYC: 73 (1949) LGA: 74 (1949) JFK: 64 (1954) Lows: EWR: -7 (1943) NYC: -8 (1943) LGA: -7 (1943) JFK: 5 (2015) Historical: 1895 - A big Gulf snowstorm produced six inches at Brownsville TX and Mobile AL, 15 inches at Galveston TX, and 24 inches of snow at Rayne LA in 24 hours. Snow fell at the very mouth of the Mississippi River. Houston TX received 22 inches of snow, and nine inches blanketed New Orleans LA. (David Ludlum) 1936 - The temperature at Parshall ND plunged to 60 degrees below zero to establish a state record. On the 6th of July that same year the temperature at Steele ND hit 121 degrees, also a state record. (David Ludlum) 1982 - An intense cyclone off the Atlantic coast capsized a drilling rig killing 84 persons, and sank a Soviet freighter resulting in 33 more deaths. The cyclone produced 80 mph winds which whipped the water into waves fifty feet high. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A storm crossing the central U.S. produced severe thunderstorms which spawned tornadoes in Louisiana and Mississippi. Tornadoes injured four persons at Pierre Pass LA, three persons at Tangipahoa LA, two persons at Lexie MS and two persons at Nicholson MS. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 100 mph killed one person south of Sulphur LA. Jackson MS was drenched with 1.5 inches of rain in ten minutes. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Low pressure brought heavy snow to parts of Michigan, with eleven inches reported at Rogers City. A cold front crossing the Northern Rockies produced wind gusts to 74 mph at Livingston MT, and created blizzard conditions in Idaho. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thirty-seven cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 80 degrees at Atlanta GA was a February record. Highs of 79 degrees at Chattanooga TN, 84 degrees at Columbia SC and 85 degrees at New Orleans LA equalled February records. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Snow, sleet and freezing rain along an arctic cold front prevailed from the north central U.S. to the Northern Atlantic Coast Region. High winds created near blizzard conditions in southern Wyoming, closing Interstate 80, while up to eleven inches of snow fell across central Minnesota. 1990 - Heavy snow also blanketed the Northern Atlantic Coast States, with ten inches reported at Buffalo NY and Mount Washington NH. Freezing rain over southern New England knocked out electricity to more than 10,000 homes in the western suburbs of Boston MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2000: Amarillo, Texas, set unusual temperature records today. The high of 82 degrees smashed the old daily high of 76 degrees set in 1921. Likewise, the morning low of 41 degrees broke the old high-low record of 40 degrees, established in 1921. 2004 - Up to 11 inches of snow fell in areas south of Nashville, TN, causing power outages and producing hazardous driving conditions. The Weather Doctor Highs:EWR: 76 (1949)NYC: 73 (1949)LGA: 74 (1949)JFK: 64 (1954)Lows:EWR: -7 (1943) NYC: -8 (1943)LGA: -7 (1943)JFK: 5 (2015) That -8 in 1943 was the last time NYC was colder than -2 ! Is the -7 at LGA their all time record low, Tony? 73-76 is unusually warm for February! No records for JFK in 1949 Tony (obviously not for the cold in 1943.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Snow will change to sleet and rain tonight. A 1"-3" accumulation is likely in and around New York City. A few places could see some somewhat higher amounts. Rain will fall moderately to heavily at times into tomorrow. A general 1"-2" of precipitation is likely from Washington, DC to New York City. Some locally higher amounts are possible. The temperature will likely surge into the 50s in New York City and lower 60s in Washington, DC tomorrow. In the wake of the storm, it will turn sharply colder on Monday. Winds could also gust past 50 mph in parts of the area. Temperatures could fall into the teens on Tuesday and/or Wednesday morning from Baltimore northward into New England. The cold will likely persist through the remainder of the week. A storm could bring snow to parts of the East Coast after the middle of next week. There is currently a large range of scenarios on the guidance. Overall, generally colder outcome is likely during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was -12.01 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -5.257 today. That is the lowest AO value since February 10, 2021 when the AO fell to -5.285. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.5° (3.4° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 One thing to look for is if the pattern regresses as time goes on later this month. Feb 2024 had rapid pattern regression and March 2022 also. Last week we were all talking about how great the pattern looked going into early March. Haven’t heard much of that now, I’d assume that after this threat we go back to suppression? Even though it’s naturally warmer at that point because it’ll be March but maybe that can help us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: One thing to look for is if the pattern regresses as time goes on later this month. Feb 2024 had rapid pattern regression and March 2022 also. Last week we were all talking about how great the pattern looked going into early March. Haven’t heard much of that now, I’d assume that after this threat we go back to suppression? Even though it’s naturally warmer at that point because it’ll be March but maybe that can help us Yeah I think this is our shot. The other 2 opportunities have disappeared for the time being Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah I think this is our shot. The other 2 opportunities have disappeared for the time being As long as the pattern is good, opportunities can pop up whenever. I’d rather have a good looking pattern knowing opportunities may come at any time. Big march in La Niña is usually full blown Spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 That being said, I haven’t seen much on social media or on beee lately about the pattern after this storm threat. Ideally, we would have a trough in the east but not the TPV pressing too close so that would prevent suppression while still giving us enough cold air to battle warm march temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 30 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said: That being said, I haven’t seen much on social media or on beee lately about the pattern after this storm threat. Ideally, we would have a trough in the east but not the TPV pressing too close so that would prevent suppression while still giving us enough cold air to battle warm march temps all I've read here is the temps will snap back to much warmer in March, it's about time, this winter has been a very long one regardless of how many inches of snowfall we've had or not had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Snow will change to sleet and rain tonight. A 1"-3" accumulation is likely in and around New York City. A few places could see some somewhat higher amounts. Rain will fall moderately to heavily at times into tomorrow. A general 1"-2" of precipitation is likely from Washington, DC to New York City. Some locally higher amounts are possible. The temperature will likely surge into the 50s in New York City and lower 60s in Washington, DC tomorrow. In the wake of the storm, it will turn sharply colder on Monday. Winds could also gust past 50 mph in parts of the area. Temperatures could fall into the teens on Tuesday and/or Wednesday morning from Baltimore northward into New England. The cold will likely persist through the remainder of the week. A storm could bring snow to parts of the East Coast after the middle of next week. There is currently a large range of scenarios on the guidance. Overall, generally colder outcome is likely during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was -12.01 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -5.257 today. That is the lowest AO value since February 10, 2021 when the AO fell to -5.285. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.5° (3.4° below normal). Don has the negative AO maxed out or will it go even lower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don has the negative AO maxed out or will it go even lower? Yes, it has likely bottomed out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 in an ideal world, my ideal world at least. this upcoming thursdays system goes ku mode, then we start march with sunny and 65. i'd love that 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: all I've read here is the temps will snap back to much warmer in March, it's about time, this winter has been a very long one regardless of how many inches of snowfall we've had or not had. I just wish we could make it to normal snowfall. If that happens, I don’t care how warm it gets in March. But we’re on track to finish lower than 2022 season, I’d like more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just looked at the 0z Euro. Another 15 days of deep winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Very 2021 February temperature departure pattern coming up with the strongest cold staying to our west this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: Very 2021 February temperature departure pattern coming up with the strongest cold staying to our west this week. this is good, it should prevent suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The week ahead: The EPS has a distinct lean toward a snowier outcome in the Lower Mid-Atlantic Region. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The week ahead: The EPS has a distinct lean toward a snowier outcome in the Lower Mid-Atlantic Region. Finally, at long last, it looks like we are going to actually see a legit warm up in March. Good ensemble agreement now. Verbatim, temps we haven’t seen since early-mid November 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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