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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 65 (1946)
NYC: 63 (1946)
LGA: 60 (20000)
JFK: 62 (1990)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (2016)
NYC: -1 (2016)
LGA: 1 (2016)
JFK: 1 (2016)

 

Historical:

 

1895: The most significant snowfall in the history of Houston, Texas, occurred on the 14th and 15th. The Houston area saw 20 inches of snow.

1899 - A great blizzard struck the eastern U.S. Washington D.C. received 20.5 inches of snow to bring their total snow depth to nearly three feet. The storm produced 36 inches of snow at Cape May NJ. (David Ludlum)

1940 - A "Saint Valentine's Day Blizzard" hit the northeastern U.S. Up to a foot and a half of snow blanketed southern New England, and whole gales accompanied the heavy snow stranding many in downtown Boston. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: A St. Valentine's Day Blizzard blankets New England with up to 18 inches of snow. Gale force winds associated with the storm strand many in downtown Boston. 

1987 - A powerful storm spawned severe thunderstorms in Texas and Oklahoma, and produced heavy snow in the Rocky Mountain Region. Snowfall totals in Colorado ranged up to 27 inches at Telluride. Straight line winds gusting to 104 mph howled through Guadalupe Pass in West Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong northerly winds ushered arctic air into the north central U.S. Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 56 mph at Rapid City SD, and reached 65 mph at Cody WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - While "Valentine's Day" was a soggy one in the Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley, unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Seventeen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s and 80s. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Valentine's Day was a snowy one for many parts of the western and central U.S. Five to ten inches of snow fell across Iowa, and 6 to 12 inches of snow blanketed northern Illinois, and strong northeasterly winds accompanied the heavy snow. Air traffic came to a halt during the evening at O'Hare Airport in Chicago, where 9.7 inches of snow was reported. More than 250 traffic accidents were reported around Des Moines IA during the evening rush hour. An icestorm glazed east central sections of Illinois, causing twelve million dollars damage in Champaign County alone. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2004 - Dallas receives 3 inches of snow, wreaking havoc with Valentine's Day flower deliveries. The greatest snowfall since 1978 caused numerous traffic accidents, power outages and flight cancellations at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.

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33 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 65 (1946)
NYC: 63 (1946)
LGA: 60 (20000)
JFK: 62 (1990)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (2016)
NYC: -1 (2016)
LGA: 1 (2016)
JFK: 1 (2016)

 

Historical:

 

1895: The most significant snowfall in the history of Houston, Texas, occurred on the 14th and 15th. The Houston area saw 20 inches of snow.

1899 - A great blizzard struck the eastern U.S. Washington D.C. received 20.5 inches of snow to bring their total snow depth to nearly three feet. The storm produced 36 inches of snow at Cape May NJ. (David Ludlum)

1940 - A "Saint Valentine's Day Blizzard" hit the northeastern U.S. Up to a foot and a half of snow blanketed southern New England, and whole gales accompanied the heavy snow stranding many in downtown Boston. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: A St. Valentine's Day Blizzard blankets New England with up to 18 inches of snow. Gale force winds associated with the storm strand many in downtown Boston. 

1987 - A powerful storm spawned severe thunderstorms in Texas and Oklahoma, and produced heavy snow in the Rocky Mountain Region. Snowfall totals in Colorado ranged up to 27 inches at Telluride. Straight line winds gusting to 104 mph howled through Guadalupe Pass in West Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong northerly winds ushered arctic air into the north central U.S. Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 56 mph at Rapid City SD, and reached 65 mph at Cody WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - While "Valentine's Day" was a soggy one in the Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley, unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Seventeen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s and 80s. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Valentine's Day was a snowy one for many parts of the western and central U.S. Five to ten inches of snow fell across Iowa, and 6 to 12 inches of snow blanketed northern Illinois, and strong northeasterly winds accompanied the heavy snow. Air traffic came to a halt during the evening at O'Hare Airport in Chicago, where 9.7 inches of snow was reported. More than 250 traffic accidents were reported around Des Moines IA during the evening rush hour. An icestorm glazed east central sections of Illinois, causing twelve million dollars damage in Champaign County alone. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2004 - Dallas receives 3 inches of snow, wreaking havoc with Valentine's Day flower deliveries. The greatest snowfall since 1978 caused numerous traffic accidents, power outages and flight cancellations at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.

Tony how much snowfall did we get in the 1940 blizzard?

This was also the anniversary of the 1899 blizzard and the 2016 below zero arctic outbreak!

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 0 (2016)
NYC: -1 (2016)
LGA: 1 (2016)
JFK: 1 (2016)

 

Historical:

 

1895: The most significant snowfall in the history of Houston, Texas, occurred on the 14th and 15th. The Houston area saw 20 inches of snow.

1899 - A great blizzard struck the eastern U.S. Washington D.C. received 20.5 inches of snow to bring their total snow depth to nearly three feet. The storm produced 36 inches of snow at Cape May NJ. (David Ludlum)

1940 - A "Saint Valentine's Day Blizzard" hit the northeastern U.S. Up to a foot and a half of snow blanketed southern New England, and whole gales accompanied the heavy snow stranding many in downtown Boston. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: A St. Valentine's Day Blizzard blankets New England with up to 18 inches of snow. Gale force winds associated with the storm strand many in downtown Boston. 

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55 minutes ago, North and West said:


You’re better at this than me, but doesn’t it feel like just plain old bad luck as well?

I don’t know how much of this is background warming induced (note I’m not denying warming); I just know that it’s snowed in recent memory in warmer winters.

Wondered what you thought.


.

no such thing as luck, this kind of thing has happened before many times, the strong jet is more to blame.

 

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4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Like I said if we get 1 or 2 big storms , that would put alot of people above average. 

It would reinforce the point I have been making that we need BM KU snowstorms to reach average to above average seasonal snowfall near the coast since the 1990s.

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31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Tony how much snowfall did we get in the 1940 blizzard?

This was also the anniversary of the 1899 blizzard and the 2016 below zero arctic outbreak!

 

 

 

1940 - A "Saint Valentine's Day Blizzard" hit the northeastern U.S. Up to a foot and a half of snow blanketed southern New England, and whole gales accompanied the heavy snow stranding many in downtown Boston. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: A St. Valentine's Day Blizzard blankets New England with up to 18 inches of snow. Gale force winds associated with the storm strand many in downtown Boston. 

 

St Valentines Day storm 1940

 

NYC: 9.0 inches of snowfall
EWR: 8.0 Inches of snowfall

LGA: 6.4 inches of snowfall
 

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

too bad JFK just missed the epic season of 1947-48 and the historic blizzard that occurred in December 1947....

 

Did Newark also start in 1939 Tony?

 

 

1931 official records but unofficial records go back to 1893/1894

EWR: 1931 - 
Newark : 1893 - 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

too bad JFK just missed the epic season of 1947-48 and the historic blizzard that occurred in December 1947....

 

Did Newark also start in 1939 Tony?

 

JFK would have had close to 23” like Malverne did in the December 1947 blizzard.

Data for December 26, 1947 through December 27, 1947
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 32.0
NY WARWICK COOP 31.0
NJ RUTHERFORD COOP 29.6
NJ RINGWOOD COOP 29.0
NJ GREENWOOD LAKE COOP 28.8
NY BABYLON COOP 28.5
NY SCARSDALE COOP 28.2
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 28.1
NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 28.0
NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 27.0
NY EASTCHESTER COOP 27.0
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 26.4
NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 26.2
NJ ELIZABETH COOP 26.0
NJ WESTFIELD COOP 26.0
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 26.0
NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 26.0
NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 26.0
CT GREENWICH COOP 26.0
NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 25.8
NY PLEASANTVILLE COOP 25.5
NY OSSINING SING SING COOP 25.0
NY CARMEL COOP 25.0
NY WEST POINT COOP 24.8
NJ PATERSON COOP 24.0
NY MINEOLA COOP 24.0
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 23.0
NY HEMPSTEAD MALVERNE COOP 23.0
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 22.8
CT DANBURY COOP 21.5
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 21.0
NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS COOP 20.5
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 20.0
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 19.0
CT BRIDGEPORT COOP 19.0
CT COLCHESTER 2 W COOP 18.0
CT NORWALK COOP 16.0
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 15.0
CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 15.0
CT WATERBURY CITY HALL COOP 15.0

 

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been one of those cases where the 500mb anomalies have varied from the CPC official PNA index. Most of us on this forum would consider it a -PNA pattern when there is a deep trough sitting over Seattle. It really pumped the Southeast Ridge forcing the gradient further north than NYC wanted to see. 

IMG_3038.gif.f41ce2deec7866a3552fbede63d62496.gif

 

Official to what you consider are two different things.  100 years from now when Bluewave the 5th is posting, he will look at official records and it won't say negative.  Probably similar to when you look at something from 100 years ago from an official site and scream about indexes.  

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1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Official to what you consider are two different things.  100 years from now when Bluewave the 5th is posting, he will look at official records and it won't say negative.  Probably similar to when you look at something from 100 years ago from an official site and scream about indexes.  

They also won’t see the 6-8 that fell in the mid Atlantic 

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

JFK would have had close to 23” like Malverne did in the December 1947 blizzard.

Data for December 26, 1947 through December 27, 1947
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 32.0
NY WARWICK COOP 31.0
NJ RUTHERFORD COOP 29.6
NJ RINGWOOD COOP 29.0
NJ GREENWOOD LAKE COOP 28.8
NY BABYLON COOP 28.5
NY SCARSDALE COOP 28.2
NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 28.1
NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 28.0
NJ RIDGEFIELD COOP 27.0
NY EASTCHESTER COOP 27.0
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 26.4
NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 26.2
NJ ELIZABETH COOP 26.0
NJ WESTFIELD COOP 26.0
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 26.0
NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 26.0
NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 26.0
CT GREENWICH COOP 26.0
NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 25.8
NY PLEASANTVILLE COOP 25.5
NY OSSINING SING SING COOP 25.0
NY CARMEL COOP 25.0
NY WEST POINT COOP 24.8
NJ PATERSON COOP 24.0
NY MINEOLA COOP 24.0
NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 23.0
NY HEMPSTEAD MALVERNE COOP 23.0
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 22.8
CT DANBURY COOP 21.5
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 21.0
NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS COOP 20.5
NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 20.0
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 19.0
CT BRIDGEPORT COOP 19.0
CT COLCHESTER 2 W COOP 18.0
CT NORWALK COOP 16.0
NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 15.0
CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 15.0
CT WATERBURY CITY HALL COOP 15.0

 

Thanks I forgot about the Long Island COOPs!  I hope these are all still in operation, I was sad that the Mineola one shut down, it has recorded the highest temperatures on Long Island (I think they reached 109 and have the record for most number of 90 degree and 100 degree days on Long Island.)

 

 

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14 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Official to what you consider are two different things.  100 years from now when Bluewave the 5th is posting, he will look at official records and it won't say negative.  Probably similar to when you look at something from 100 years ago from an official site and scream about indexes.  

This is why I am mostly focused on the magnitude of the 500 mb height anomalies. While the raw indices can be informative, the actual 500 mb anomalies tell a more complete story. Since you can view them and see how they combine with the height anomalies in other regions rather than in isolation. But when the raw indices like the AO get down into the -4 or -5 and lower range, they are often accompanied by corresponding 500 mb anomalies in the +400 to +500 meter range like we are currently seeing.

But sometimes the orientation of the wavelengths can lead to the PNA raw index not lining up exactly with the 500mb look. These more variable and amplified wavelengths are probably why the AO and NAO have fallen out of sync in recent years. This weekend is a great example of the -NAO not matching the -AO magnitude. In the old days the blocking wouldn’t have been as squeezed into the AO sector and we would have saw a stronger -NAO also. 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is why I am mostly focused on the magnitude of the 500 mb height anomalies. While the raw indices can be informative, the actual 500 mb anomalies tell a more complete story. Since you can view them and see how they combine with the height anomalies in other regions rather than in isolation. But when the raw indices like the AO get down into the -4 or -5 and lower range, they are often accompanied by corresponding 500 mb anomalies in the +400 to +500 meter range like we are currently seeing.

But sometimes the orientation of the wavelengths can lead to the PNA raw index not lining up exactly with the 500mb look. These more variable and amplified wavelengths are probably why the AO and NAO have fallen out of sync in recent years. This weekend is a great example of the -NAO not matching the -AO magnitude. In the old days the blocking wouldn’t have been as squeezed into the AO sector and we would have saw a stronger -NAO also. 

Yes I remember a stat from years ago when the AO was negative the NAO was also negative 85% of the time.

Has the correlation become less over time?

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes I remember a stat from years ago when the AO was negative the NAO was also negative 85% of the time.

Has the correlation become less over time?

The changes in the wavelengths has made the correlation less over time. 

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no such thing as luck, this kind of thing has happened before many times, the strong jet is more to blame.
 

I don’t fully agree with you, though I think you’re more on the ball than I am. I just think we overlook when luck or randomness when it provides us with what we want as well (in this case, accumulating snow after a warm stretch).


.
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3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 65 (1946)
NYC: 63 (1946)
LGA: 60 (20000)
JFK: 62 (1990)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (2016)
NYC: -1 (2016)
LGA: 1 (2016)
JFK: 1 (2016)

 

Historical:

 

1895: The most significant snowfall in the history of Houston, Texas, occurred on the 14th and 15th. The Houston area saw 20 inches of snow.

1899 - A great blizzard struck the eastern U.S. Washington D.C. received 20.5 inches of snow to bring their total snow depth to nearly three feet. The storm produced 36 inches of snow at Cape May NJ. (David Ludlum)

1940 - A "Saint Valentine's Day Blizzard" hit the northeastern U.S. Up to a foot and a half of snow blanketed southern New England, and whole gales accompanied the heavy snow stranding many in downtown Boston. (David Ludlum)

 

1940: A St. Valentine's Day Blizzard blankets New England with up to 18 inches of snow. Gale force winds associated with the storm strand many in downtown Boston. 

1987 - A powerful storm spawned severe thunderstorms in Texas and Oklahoma, and produced heavy snow in the Rocky Mountain Region. Snowfall totals in Colorado ranged up to 27 inches at Telluride. Straight line winds gusting to 104 mph howled through Guadalupe Pass in West Texas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong northerly winds ushered arctic air into the north central U.S. Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 56 mph at Rapid City SD, and reached 65 mph at Cody WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - While "Valentine's Day" was a soggy one in the Ohio Valley and the Tennessee Valley, unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S. Seventeen cities reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s and 80s. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Valentine's Day was a snowy one for many parts of the western and central U.S. Five to ten inches of snow fell across Iowa, and 6 to 12 inches of snow blanketed northern Illinois, and strong northeasterly winds accompanied the heavy snow. Air traffic came to a halt during the evening at O'Hare Airport in Chicago, where 9.7 inches of snow was reported. More than 250 traffic accidents were reported around Des Moines IA during the evening rush hour. An icestorm glazed east central sections of Illinois, causing twelve million dollars damage in Champaign County alone. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2004 - Dallas receives 3 inches of snow, wreaking havoc with Valentine's Day flower deliveries. The greatest snowfall since 1978 caused numerous traffic accidents, power outages and flight cancellations at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport.

Houston getting 20 inches of snow, that's as bad as New Orleans getting a foot.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave looks like the coldest air of the season won’t be in January like we typically see in Nina’s 

While there are some differences in the sensible weather so far, this La Niña February is more along the lines of the February 2021 La Niña. That one featured a record Arctic outbreak down the Plains. But this one won’t be quite as intense. There was also a -5 -AO block that month. Plus we are on track for February being our snowiest month of the winter. 

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21 minutes ago, North and West said:


I don’t fully agree with you, though I think you’re more on the ball than I am. I just think we overlook when luck or randomness when it provides us with what we want as well (in this case, accumulating snow after a warm stretch).


.

this winter somewhat reminds me of 1988-89, a few of the 80s winters to be honest.

the key seems to be when the deep south gets snow we do not.

 

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While there are some differences in the sensible weather so far, this La Niña February is more along the lines of the February 2021 La Niña. That one featured a record Arctic outbreak down the Plains. But this one won’t be quite as intense. There was also a -5 -AO block that month. Plus we are on track for February being our snowiest month of the winter. 

How many of these -5 AO blocks did we have during the 80s, Chris?  February 1989? December 1989?

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Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy. Snow will overspread the area during the late afternoon or evening. That snow will then change to sleet and rain. A 1"-3" accumulation is likely in and around New York City. A few places could see some somewhat higher amounts.

The precipitation will continue into Sunday. A general 1"-2" of precipitation is likely from Washington, DC to New York City. Some locally higher amounts are possible. The temperature could surge into the 50s in New York City and lower 60s in Washington, DC on Sunday.

In the wake of the storm, it will turn sharply colder on Monday. Temperatures could fall into the teens on Tuesday morning from Baltimore northward into New England. The cold will likely persist through the remainder of the week. A storm could bring snow to parts of the East Coast after the middle of next week. There is currently a large range of scenarios on the guidance.

Overall, generally colder outcome is likely during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was -12.01 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -4.760 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.4° (3.5° below normal).

 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Just one: January 18-20, 1985.

Sorry to bother Don, however has there ever been a year with 2 -4SD AOs in the same winter season? If so in back to back months?

We seem to be seeing a lot of strong -AOs lately.

Thanks

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4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Sorry to bother Don, however has there ever been a year with 2 -4SD AOs in the same winter season? If so in back to back months?

We seem to be seeing a lot of strong -AOs lately.

Thanks

Even more extreme -5.000 or below values have occurred in back-to-back months. Winter 1976-77 saw the AO fall to -5 or below in December and again in January. Winter 2009-10 saw the AO fall to -5 or below in December, January, and again in February.

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