February 2025

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is going to be one of the latest peaking La Nina’s on record. They are usually falling apart in February, not strengthening and peaking. Even for a late bloomer La Niña, this is ridiculous. IMO, this argues for a canonical La Niña pattern continuing for longer than some people are thinking
 

That is good if you like snow during a La Nina

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The wave is weakening as it heads toward phase 8, however still has decent amplitude. With the lag still looking at the last week of February.

It’s showing the MJO wave weaking as it heads towards phase 8 because of the relatively colder waters there and the enhanced, strong trade winds from the late peaking La Niña….shearing the convection apart…..there’s a possibility that it never makes it into phase 8 and gets sheared apart and encounters the colder waters

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

To provide additional granularity. So years where it snowed in Atlanta, the results ended up as provided by Don.

But Atlanta didn't get that much snow they were fringed too.  Maybe we could instead look at a city that got more than 3 inches of snow, for example Savannah.

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This is going to be one of the latest peaking La Nina’s on record. They are usually falling apart in February, not strengthening and peaking. Even for a late bloomer La Niña, this is ridiculous. IMO, this argues for a canonical La Niña pattern continuing for longer than some people are thinking
 

a really bad severe season then?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 1895-96.

We had a historically snowy March in 1896, over 30 inches of snow (still the record for NYC.)

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Next week is now going to feature our next storm threat/thread as several models including the 0Z Euro are showing an east coast storm sometime mid - late next week

that offshore high looks like it's in a really bad spot for snow for our area.

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

LOL LOL.

Allow me to clarify my statement. If it's a red tagger, Blue Wave or Don that are currently on this board it's a trustworthy source as they would provide evidence and not state such a claim. 

If it's a Twitter person that is not a current poster, I would be leery. 

he was also the head mod of our subforum lol

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

March 15 1999

Thanks I forgot how great this storm was in an otherwise lackluster winter.  Beware the Ides of March! 6-9 inches of snow here!  I think we had an event in January 1999 too, but we either got fringed or changed over in that storm.

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s showing the MJO wave weaking as it heads towards phase 8 because of the relatively colder waters there and the enhanced, strong trade winds from the late peaking La Niña….shearing the convection apart…..there’s a possibility that it never makes it into phase 8 and gets sheared apart and encounters the colder waters

Agreed, however the wave started at a decent amplitude therefore should have some effects in phase 8, albeit weakened. 

Phase one, which includes the Western Indian Ocean, should not be affected as it wasn't in December. All the focus has been on the waters around Indonesia in Northern Australia however not enough attention has been paid to the Western Indian Ocean which is also increasing in temperature fast. Phases one and two are colder phases. 

There have been a number of late seasons snowfalls in La Nina's over the years, excluding epic snowy winters like 95/96. I wonder if anybody has done a deep dive into the trigger mechanisms for the late season snowfalls in those La Nina's, which could perhaps provide insight into the potential moving forward. 

Don's statistics show, from a snowfall perspective at a point in time, which of course do include both La niñas and El ninos. However with the changing weather over the years what may have been detrimental to late season snowfalls in the past may actually work in our favor now or in the future (i.e. warmer western Indian Ocean temps).

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

he was also the head mod of our subforum lol

 

He isn't on any forums anymore. Just twitter.

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s showing the MJO wave weaking as it heads towards phase 8 because of the relatively colder waters there and the enhanced, strong trade winds from the late peaking La Niña….shearing the convection apart…..there’s a possibility that it never makes it into phase 8 and gets sheared apart and encounters the colder waters

Looks like your milder pattern is finally coming . 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed, however the wave started at a decent amplitude therefore should have some effects in phase 8, albeit weakened. 

Phase one, which includes the Western Indian Ocean, should not be affected as it wasn't in December. All the focus has been on the waters around Indonesia in Northern Australia however not enough attention has been paid to the Western Indian Ocean which is also increasing in temperature fast. Phases one and two are colder phases. 

There have been a number of late seasons snowfalls in La Nina's over the years, excluding epic snowy winters like 95/96. I wonder if anybody has done a deep dive into the trigger mechanisms for the late season snowfalls in those La Nina's, which could perhaps provide insight into the potential moving forward. 

Don's statistics show, from a snowfall perspective at a point in time, which of course do include both La niñas and El ninos. However with the changing weather over the years what may have been detrimental to late season snowfalls in the past may actually work in our favor now or in the future (i.e. warmer western Indian Ocean temps).

well we can add 1998-99 to the list now too (note another no KU  snowfall la nina that came after an el nino).

So now we have 3.

1983-84

1998-99

2008-09

 

1991-92 wasn't a la nina was it?

 

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

well we can add 1998-99 to the list now too (note another no KU  snowfall la nina that came after an el nino).

So now we have 3.

1983-84

1998-99

2008-09

 

1991-92 wasn't a la nina was it?

 

No it was an El nino. 

On a side note I often wonder why so much attention is paid to the warmer Waters around Indonesia in Northern Australia and not the Western Indian Ocean. The Western Indian Ocean supports phases one and two which are cold. 

[anthonymm]

I think we're basically done in terms of snowfall this winter. I'd bet $100 central park finishes with <10" yet again this winter. Idc what anyone says about the 80s this current snow drought is wayy worse than anything we've seen before. Central park never got two back to back <10" winters, let alone three. We must have seriously pissed off the snow gods or something.

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I think we're basically done in terms of snowfall this winter. I'd bet $100 central park finishes with <10" yet again this winter. Idc what anyone says about the 80s this current snow drought is wayy worse than anything we've seen before. Central park never got two back to back <10" winters, let alone three. We must have seriously pissed off the snow gods or something.

Bold statement on Jan 29

[anthonymm]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Bold statement on Jan 29

I've seen enough. The pattern has sucked for years now. We couldnt get snow when it was cold and all the teleconnections were awesome, what makes you think we're going to get snow when its warm with shitty teleconnections.

[SnowGoose69]

Same story continues on ensembles.  Continuation at an attempted overdone SER D13-16 only to see it dampened as it gets closer to D10.  Both the GEFS/EPS last night really push the ridge poleward by AK too post 240.  Still think we see a couple of events in February, even at the coast.

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

I've seen enough. The pattern has sucked for years now. We couldnt get snow when it was cold and all the teleconnections were awesome, what makes you think we're going to get snow when its warm with shitty teleconnections.

Cold air is nearby and the MJO is in a bad phase right now but should round the base. 

Is this Colin or snowman19 sock ?

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is going to be one of the latest peaking La Nina’s on record. They are usually falling apart in February, not strengthening and peaking. Even for a late bloomer La Niña, this is ridiculous. IMO, this argues for a canonical La Niña pattern continuing for longer than some people are thinking
 

I think thats why it was Ben Noll arguing on x last week he does not buy the sudden ENSO model shift to a La Nina next winter, he thinks it may be a rare case of the models being confused by the late peaking La Nina here, he is leaning towards a weak to moderate Nino I believe though none of the climate models show that now.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cold air is nearby and the MJO is in a bad phase right now but should round the base. 

Is this Colin or snowman19 sock ?

He's got a point it has sucked for years...

[anthonymm]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think thats why it was Ben Noll arguing on x last week he does not buy the sudden ENSO model shift to a La Nina next winter, he thinks it may be a rare case of the models being confused by the late peaking La Nina here, he is leaning towards a weak to moderate Nino I believe though none of the climate models show that now.

weak niño means we might actually pull closer to 20" of snow.

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

He's got a point it has sucked for years...

Of course but claiming winter over on January 29 is insane.

[MJO812]

Models keep showing a possible storm next week.  Could be wintry.

[Dan76]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Of course but claiming winter over on January 29 is insane.

Would you bet your pension against it?

[nycwinter]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Models keep showing a possible storm next week.  Could be wintry.

you should change your name back to tony you were more happier back then..

[snowman19]

Not really understanding the argument that the models are overdoing the SE ridge “again”. This is the 1st time the models are showing a SE ridge this entire winter/end of fall, and 2nd, up until this point, we haven’t had a SE ridge, it’s been totally non existent since the end of November. However now, as @bluewave has stated, it fits La Niña climo; with the big -AAM drop, EWBs and the very late Niña peak/strengthening into early February and MJO progression we are seeing 

[donsutherland1]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But I am confused, why are looking at Atlanta's snowfall numbers?

I included it to provide some insight into La Niña cases where the storm track was suppressed for a portion of the winter.

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But Atlanta didn't get that much snow they were fringed too.  Maybe we could instead look at a city that got more than 3 inches of snow, for example Savannah.

With Savannah, the sample size would be too small. Since 1950, there were 3 years with 3" or above snowstorms. Only one of those storms occurred during a La Niña winter.

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Models keep showing a possible storm next week.  Could be wintry.

Only the GFS now for next week BUT the Euro shows it a week later - IMO good idea not to start any new threads till the GFS, Canadian and Euro or at least 2 out of 3 agree on something with accumulating snow and their ensembles for at least a few runs in a row....

[George001]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

This is going to be one of the latest peaking La Nina’s on record. They are usually falling apart in February, not strengthening and peaking. Even for a late bloomer La Niña, this is ridiculous. IMO, this argues for a canonical La Niña pattern continuing for longer than some people are thinking
 

Yeah this La Niña developed very differently than recent ones. Still feel the ENSO state for next winter is up in the air, I’m not really sold on an El Niño yet. Multi year cold ENSO periods immediately followed 6/9 of the last strong or super ninos, with 3 of those being the 15-16, 09-10 and 97-98 El Niños.