Tatamy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 0z UKIE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 That includes Saturday so subtract 3 or 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 So, the UK is the least snowy of the 3 major global models that have run so far and it shows 12-18" for the entire region for 2/20 and for DC to Boston really. The least snowy. The GFS shows the most with 18-32" and the CMC shows 12-24". I've never seen anything like this before in decades of tracking storms - consensus on an historic east coast snowstorm 6 days out. Obviously, storms like this are rare, so it might not happen at all, but this is as strong a signal for a significant to major snowstorm one is ever likely to see this far out. Euro up next and I have no idea what to expect. What's bigger than BECS? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, RU848789 said: So, the UK is the least snowy of the 3 major global models that have run so far and it shows 12-18" for the entire region for 2/20 and for DC to Boston really. The least snowy. The GFS shows the most with 18-32" and the CMC shows 12-24". I've never seen anything like this before in decades of tracking storms - consensus on an historic east coast snowstorm 6 days out. Obviously, storms like this are rare, so it might not happen at all, but this is as strong a signal for a significant to major snowstorm one is ever likely to see this far out. Euro up next and I have no idea what to expect. What's bigger than BECS? 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 And the Euro goes BOOM!! too. 4 for 4, 6 days out. Can only go downhill from here, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdj5211 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Can someone post Euro…hearing it was a good hit as well! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: Can someone post Euro…hearing it was a good hit as well! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 can’t believe we went four for four tonight 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: Almost a full phase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Almost a full phase If anything calls for meatballs for dinner..it's this one !!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Based on the 00z/14 OPS and so far the 00z/14 GEFS, barring a 00z/14 CMCE/EPS miss, I'll have the thread going at 720AM with some base ensemble info. We hopefully will have something more than minor-moderate events that already are contributing to a nice winter here in the northeast. This one looks like powder, drifting snow? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: can’t believe we went four for four tonight You're a great meteorologist brother and it sucks you ended up on the wrong side of the stick alot of the times (not of your fault) One quote from you had me literally lmao... "What do you want me to do? Post bad upper air maps?" Just know you and every other knowledgeable poster here is greatly appreciated by me and many others. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Did @MJO812hack these models tonight? Jeez Still way too far out to get excited but when all the major models show a similar solution, that sure peaks interest. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 EPS is insane. better than 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 34 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: can’t believe we went four for four tonight I've been tracking storms since you were probably in grammar school and I've never seen consensus on an HECS like this 6 days out, let alone even 3-4 days out. It's incredibly exciting, but we all know how complex and uncertain NWP is, so assuming we're going to see an outcome like what we just saw from the models is a bit unrealistic - but possible. It's the "possible" part that's so exciting. Thanks, as always, for your efforts and for those from the other mets/experts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I've been tracking storms since you were probably in grammar school and I've never seen consensus on an HECS like this 6 days out, let alone even 3-4 days out. It's incredibly exciting, but we all know how complex and uncertain NWP is, so assuming we're going to see an outcome like what we just saw from the models is a bit unrealistic - but possible. It's the "possible" part that's so exciting. Thanks, as always, for your efforts and for those from the other mets/experts. the ensemble support and general pattern favorability is what makes this so exciting IMO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I've been tracking storms since you were probably in grammar school and I've never seen consensus on an HECS like this 6 days out, let alone even 3-4 days out. It's incredibly exciting, but we all know how complex and uncertain NWP is, so assuming we're going to see an outcome like what we just saw from the models is a bit unrealistic - but possible. It's the "possible" part that's so exciting. Thanks, as always, for your efforts and for those from the other mets/experts. I think Feb 2013 had pretty good consensus at D5 or so 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 X has been smoldering for last few days. Expecting it will go to four alarms later this morning. Finally something of substance to track. Would like to see these trends continue over the weekend. Looks promising but final outcome TBD. I love the look from 00z modeling. No denying it has potential. Hopefully we have this look from 12Z Sunday runs as we move into the mid range period. Would love to see a good cold, windy and widespread 12”+ event forum wide! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I think Feb 2013 had pretty good consensus at D5 or so Feb 17 had unreal consensus best I've seen. Same with dec 2020 in the D4-5 range 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 41 minutes ago, wdrag said: Based on the 00z/14 OPS and so far the 00z/14 GEFS, barring a 00z/14 CMCE/EPS miss, I'll have the thread going at 720AM with some base ensemble info. We hopefully will have something more than minor-moderate events that already are contributing to a nice winter here in the northeast. This one looks like powder, drifting snow? if this gets too close to the coast and deepens there will be the possibility of mixing issues along Jersey coast and eastern LI - happened during the Jan 96 Blizzard I remember when I lived in Northern Ocean County NJ......probably in other stronger events also...... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 EPS with a 6-8” mean for NYC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS with a 6-8” mean for NYC what is causing the lower amounts on the individual members ? Too far east ? Mixing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS with a 6-8” mean for NYC That is a good looking EPS mean this far out. Gotta keep these trends in tact next several days. Or at least something close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: what is causing the lower amounts on the individual members ? Too far east ? Mixing ? probably some of both, mostly some too far east. however, that is an extremely aggressive mean at this range 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 48 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Feb 17 had unreal consensus best I've seen. Same with dec 2020 in the D4-5 range Yes, but those were both under 10" storms (at least for me) and I guess I was thinking about 12"+ storms. If somehow this holds onto decent consensus from day 6 through a 12"+ outcome, that would be unprecedented, IMO and pretty damn cool. It also occurs to me that There's likely only a few thousand people who know about this in the entire world right now, but there will be millions who know about it by tomorrow night, as this shit is about to go viral, big time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Thread started for 2/19-21. You're welcome to transfer energy there. Doesn't need to be pinned for a couple days even though its currently an item.. the event is likely to adjust and it could be less meaningful here, especially since it's a northern stream short wave based. I'm kind of playing it down right now... not to get more hyped up than what the ensembles were showing in the 00z/14 cycle. If the ensembles fade there will be considerable disappointment. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 hours ago, wdrag said: I think this is a warnable WS for the Poconos and on up north of I84 due to combined freezing rain accretion preceded. by 2 to possibly 6" of snow Sat aft-eve per ensembles and ops. The hope is that a lot of the freezing rain depicted is sleet... difficult to remove, but prevents 1/4" glaze which I think is more damaging for birches and white pines. Even if the ensembles are too generous with 1.5 qpf, I think 8 tenths will. occur and most of it will be frozen or freezing there... and hopefully mostly snow-sleet. Additionally, and we dont know yet where this will ut wherever the glaze is heavy, winds should be gusting 35-50 MPH beginning near midnight Sunday night and if glaze still remains that's a branch breaker-power outage maker For now low prob until we know ice and temps Sunday. So, there are unknowns of course but for sure, at a minimum it will be hazardous Sat aft-night in the Poconos, and nw NJ Sussex County with subfreezing temps and accumulations. One other supporting piece... I'm starting to track AI EC 2m temp... it did a good job in the cycles leading up to today (12z this morning and now 00z/14) and its comparatively colder than most other models for Sunday morning-midday. Also, you'll note the low pressure system trying to move into Central NYS has a lobe of pressure falls along the warm front s of Li. That focuses some of the heavy qpf there, but also traps cold air in the interior due to a tendency for winds to cross the isobars toward the max Pres falls near LI-Cape Cod. Thanks Walt, I'm very worried about the winds Sunday night and into Monday too, looks like Wind Warning criteria winds might be on tap. They're bad enough tonight as it is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 59 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: what is causing the lower amounts on the individual members ? Too far east ? Mixing ? the amounts are fairly even across the board south to north, which is a pretty good sign-- there are 8 inch amounts on it both southwest of us and northeast of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: can’t believe we went four for four tonight 5 for 5 if you count the Korean model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now