February 2025

[MANDA]

11 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I think every snow event I have had this season has been at night. Anyone else notice that ?


.

Pretty much! 

Most of them have started after dark and ended before or just after sunrise.  There were 1 or 2 exceptions, I think.

 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

OT but did you move to CT recently? 

I moved up to the CT Shoreline near the end of the summer in 2023. The winters are a little colder here with better radiational cooling than the LI South Shore. Plus I still get a nice sea breeze during the summer without too many 90° days.

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

 

Tony, anything for us from these two storms?

1987 - A storm in the eastern U.S. produced high winds from North Carolina to Maine. A storm in the western U.S. produced up to thirty inches of snow in the Sierra Nevada Range of California. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A classic "nor'easter" formed off the Carolina coast and intensified as it moved up the Atlantic coast bringing heavy snow to the northeastern U.S. Totals ranged up to 26 inches at Camden NY and Chester MA. Arctic cold gripped the north central U.S. Duluth MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 32 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

EWR

2/12/1987 : 2.1 inches of snowfall
2/11-12/1988: 1.9 inches of snowfall

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Exactly.  They have more snow than us this week because the gradient verified SOUTH of us.  Also Florida has had record snows,  noting the gradient also verified SOUTH of us.  The south is having a great winter because the gradient has been SOUTH.  

I think you guys missed the point of my post within the specific time period of this month so far. The majority of the storms this month had the mixing line near NYC with Southeast Ridge gradient. The storm which just produced  the heaviest snows to our south came behind a recent storm which briefly shifted the overrunning gradient zone a little further south. It was a weaker low which couldn’t gain much latitude.

The next few much stronger storms will come north again through the weekend eventually pushing the gradient even further north. So this has been a very consistent pattern this month. The storm this weekend will rapidly deepen and drive the gradient down into the mid-Atlantic next week. Then we have another low coming out of the Southeast around the 20th that will be in a tug of war between the tendency of the Southeast Ridge to amplify and the 50/50 low to suppress. We would like to see the low find the benchmark for once this winter before this pattern relaxes later in the month.

But we have seen this cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track play out time and time again since 18-19. So we probably shouldn’t get the hopes up too high for the 20th due to the difficulty of getting a coastal storm just in the right spot near the benchmark. The very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet seems to be driving this persistent storm track pattern. Maybe we can see at least some brief relaxation of this pattern before this winter comes to a close. 

January was all about suppression with the very strong Northern Stream and near record 50/50 low to our east. It would have been a much better pattern with an undercutting STJ and El Niño as the storm track would probably have been further north with the typical STJ orientation. Then the hugger track has dominated this month with the one suppressed storm near DC last few days. 

 

 

[wishcast_hater]

I think you guys missed the point of my post within the specific time period of this month so far. The majority of the storms this month had the mixing line near NYC with Southeast Ridge gradient. The storm which just produced  the heaviest snows to our south came behind a recent storm which briefly shifted the overrunning gradient zone a little further south. It was a weaker low which couldn’t gain much latitude.
The next few much stronger storms will come north again through the weekend eventually pushing the gradient even further north. So this has been a very consistent pattern this month. The storm this weekend will rapidly deepen and drive the gradient down into the mid-Atlantic next week. Then we have another low coming out of the Southeast around the 20th that will be in a tug of war between the tendency of the Southeast Ridge to amplify and the 50/50 low to suppress. We would like to see the low find the benchmark for once this winter before this pattern relaxes later in the month.
But we have seen this cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track play out time and time again since 18-19. So we probably shouldn’t get the hopes up too high for the 20th due to the difficulty of getting a coastal storm just in the right spot near the benchmark. The very fast Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet seems to be driving this persistent storm track pattern. Maybe we can see at least some brief relaxation of this pattern before this winter comes to a close. 
January was all about suppression with the very strong Northern Stream and near record 50/50 low to our east. It would have been a much better pattern with an undercutting STJ and El Niño as the storm track would probably have been further north with the typical STJ orientation. Then the hugger track has dominated this month with the one suppressed storm near DC last few days. 
 
 

.

[cleetussnow]

Gfs is going be congrats DC again for the 20th. 

[eduggs]

CMC would work.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

CMC would work.

Sure will

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

Gfs is going be congrats DC again for the 20th. 

rather not see a direct hit here on the models a week out that almost guarantees a miss here

[NEG NAO]

0Z Euro is a region wide MECS for the 20th system

Models: ECMWF — Pivotal Weather

[brooklynwx99]

EPS is very amplified. what a look

btw, that isn’t a SE ridge linking with the -NAO… those are height rises downstream from the amping vort

[Maestrobjwa]

32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is very amplified. what a look

btw, that isn’t a SE ridge linking with the -NAO… those are height rises downstream from the amping vort

Thank you for explaining that--was gonna ask in the other thread but didn't wanna sound even more amateurish, lol Great see a more amped solution!

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

I moved up to the CT Shoreline near the end of the summer in 2023. The winters are a little colder here with better radiational cooling than the LI South Shore. Plus I still get a nice sea breeze during the summer without too many 90° days.

It occurred to me that you moved to the jackpot area of the March 1888 Blizzard, Chris,

[wdrag]

Not threading the20th yet but will recheck guidance af 5PM. Ensembles all have some snow, possibly. a snow storm.? Just too soon with the various possibilities but I'm planning on some snow acc for the NYC subforum. 

Also before that... might need an OBS thread for 50-60MPH winds gusts midday Monday but too soon to know if any wind past 50. 

[Ji]

Thank you for explaining that--was gonna ask in the other thread but didn't wanna sound even more amateurish, lol Great see a more amped solution!

What are you doing here?

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[WestBabylonWeather]

This far out you would once again be setting yourself up for disappointment. Give it a few days. 

[snowman19]

Still no change at all IMO. Next week is either a hit or suppressed/OTS

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It occurred to me that you moved to the jackpot area of the March 1888 Blizzard, Chris,

It was a good area for that storm 45 inches in New Haven, but the jackpot was actually the Albany Saratoga region in NY. Albany had 48 inches and Saratoga 58 inches. Most of the HV was over 40. 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yes. As we have been discussing the period around the 20th will be perhaps the best chance this winter to deviate from the stuck and stagnant storm track pattern of recent years. Does that mean it’s a guarantee? No but there are some things which have happened in the past under similar 500 mb long wave patterns.

First, the storms over the next few days will be riding unusually far north with such a strong high 500 mb heights near Greenland causing a near -5 reading to the -AO index. This 500 mb height merger between the Southeast Ridge and Greenland block hasn’t happened around -5 readings of that index in the past. So this first portion of this extreme 500 mb amplification has diverged from past occurrences.

This is why it’s still uncertain that the period around the 20th will produce our first heavy snowstorm in years. But we can hope that the longer this shut out of 4”+ and 6”+snowstorms continues in NYC one event will find a way to buck the long term storm track pattern.

Most past instances with such amplified 500 mb heights near Greenland found a way to produce a major snowstorm. But as we have seen in recent years, there have been frequent modeled outcomes with KU BM tracks beyond 120hrs which shifter to either cutter, hugger, or a suppressed track. My guess is is that this has been related to the acceleration of the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. Which causes false positives so to speak to  emerge in the forecasts beyond 120hrs often. But they don’t hold into the short term modeling. As the models have been underestimating the strength of the Pacific Jet longer range.

I'm not sure how much of a shut out it is for the local region for 4" and 6" snowstorms since JFK got one of each last year in February.  Was that because it was an el nino? Maybe a stronger el nino is needed to completely destroy the Pacific jet?

 

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It was a good area for that storm 45 inches in New Haven, but the jackpot was actually the Albany Saratoga region in NY. Albany had 48 inches and Saratoga 58 inches. Most of the HV was over 40. 

Would love to experience that again, the late February 2010 snowicane was probably the closest thing to it (and NYC's latest 20 inch snowstorm since then.)

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm not sure how much of a shut out it is for the local region for 4" and 6" snowstorms since JFK got one of each last year in February.  Was that because it was an el nino? Maybe a stronger el nino is needed to completely destroy the Pacific jet?

 

The significant metric at JFK has been the 6 year running mean snowfall from 18-19 to 23-24. It was near the bottom of the list since they started keeping snowfall records there. That’s why the period around the 20th and the next few years are so important. Past instances with similar 6 season slumps all experienced big rebounds in the following years. In fact the reason the 6 year slumps didn’t become 10 year slumps near or under 15”was there there was a quick rebound to near 50” in the following seasons. So we need a major snowstorm around the 20th and a near 50” season next few years to turn things around. But it will a big challenge  to expect repeats of 76-77, 77-78, 93-94, 95-96, 02-03, 03-04, and 04-05 in the much warmer mid to late 2020s climate. I will update the new 7 year running mean once this winter ends. Then we’ll have the next 3 seasons to try and avoid the lowest 10 year running mean of 18.0” set in 1993. 
 

Lowest 6 year snowfall means JFK

2024….14.3”

2002…13.0”

1993….14.7”

1975….14.7”

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The significant metric at JFK has been the 6 year running mean snowfall from 18-19 to 23-24. It was near the bottom of the list since they started keeping snowfall records there. That’s why the period around the 20th and the next few years are so important. Past instances with similar 6 season slumps all experienced big rebounds in the following years. In fact the reason the 6 year slumps didn’t become 10 year slumps was there there was a quick rebound to near 50” in the following seasons. So we need a major snowstorm around the 20th and a near 50” season next few years to turn things around. But it will a big challenge  to expect repeats of 76-77, 77-78, 93-94, 95-96, 02-03, 03-04, and 04-05 in the much warmer mid to late 2020s climate. I will update the new 7 year running mean once this winter ends. Then we’ll have the next 3 seasons to try and avoid the lowest 10 year running mean of 18.0” set in 1993. 
 

Lowest 6 year snowfall means JFK

2024….14.3”

2002…13.0”

1993….14.7”

1975….14.7”

Was what we had in 08-09, 09-10, 10-11, 13- 14, 14-15, also a response to the low points in snowfall in 06-07, 07-08 and 11-12?

 

[EastonSN+]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It occurred to me that you moved to the jackpot area of the March 1888 Blizzard, Chris,

Just a couple years too late LOL. I believe that was a good spot for 1978 as well and of course Nemo. Three of the best storms in history for that area. They did pretty good in that bust of a storm in 2015 was over a foot there.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Still no change at all IMO. Next week is either a hit or suppressed/OTS

Completely agree when you run the animation on the op runs you see the confluence rotating down from the Northeast right as a storm approaches. Have to hope that's a bit weaker in the storm a bit more ampt.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Just a couple years too late LOL. I believe that was a good spot for 1978 as well and of course Nemo. Three of the best storms in history for that area. They did pretty good in that bust of a storm in 2015 was over a foot there.

It's a reflection of a proximal location on the north shore of Long Island that does really well in snowfall too.  Mt Sinai and New Haven are both local hot spots for snowfall.  They fit together like two pieces of a puzzle, did you notice how the northernmost part of the central CT shoreline matches the northernmost part of the central part of the north shore of Long Island? They were part of the same landmass before the last ice age.

[EastonSN+]

6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is very amplified. what a look

btw, that isn’t a SE ridge linking with the -NAO… those are height rises downstream from the amping vort

To any/all in the subforum. Don't want to keep breaching this topic, however, just need any explanation from anyone on what the differences are between this depiction where the SE ridge is NOT linking to the NAO compared to the instances BlueWave pointed out where it is. 

What do I look out for to tell the difference?

Maybe Bluewave and Brooklyn agree on an independent 3rd party meteorologist to provide an opinion. Such opinion would be binding in the absence of manifest error.

 

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's a reflection of a proximal location on the north shore of Long Island that does really well in snowfall too.  Mt Sinai and New Haven are both local hot spots for snowfall.  They fit together like two pieces of a puzzle, did you notice how the northernmost part of the central CT shoreline matches the northernmost part of the central part of the north shore of Long Island? They were part of the same landmass before the last ice age.

I actually envy Long Island during the big coastals as the northerly wind in northeasterly wind cause snowfall to be a little more intense due to the sound. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I actually envy Long Island during the big coastals as the northerly wind in northeasterly wind cause snowfall to be a little more intense due to the sound. 

Sound effect and sound enhanced snow are pretty interesting, sometimes they make a storm last longer because the snowfall lingers.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

To any/all in the subforum. Don't want to keep breaching this topic, however, just need any explanation from anyone on what the differences are between this depiction where the SE ridge is NOT linking to the NAO compared to the instances BlueWave pointed out where it is. 

What do I look out for to tell the difference?

 

Don't forget the warming Indian Ocean.  I've seen it mentioned here and there (usually shortened to IO).

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don't forget the warming Indian Ocean.  I've seen it mentioned here and there (usually shortened to IO).

LOL I raised this topic a dozen times in the subform looking for anybody to opine. You are the only one to acknowledge that it was ever spoken like it was some kind of voodoo, or the answer is too dangerous for us to know. 

I keep saying the Indian Ocean is rising in temperatures so we should see an increase in phases 1 and 2 which in the heart of Winter are very cold phases. This is likely why January was so frigid because it was a high amplitude phase 1 and phase 2. That's Indian ocean temperatures. 

That being said we thought the Indonesian high water temps would lead to a semi-permanent 456 phases however that has not been the case at all this winter.