February 2025

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Huh? 
 

DCA just had 6-8 last night 

We don’t live in DC.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We don’t live in DC.

inland regions are less susceptible to gradient patterns aren't they?

 

[cleetussnow]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Huh? 
 

DCA just had 6-8 last night 

Exactly.  They have more snow than us this week because the gradient verified SOUTH of us.  Also Florida has had record snows,  noting the gradient also verified SOUTH of us.  The south is having a great winter because the gradient has been SOUTH.  

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Exactly.  They have more snow than us this week because the gradient verified SOUTH of us.  Also Florida has had record snows,  noting the gradient also verified SOUTH of us.  The south is having a great winter because the gradient has been SOUTH.  

The gradient is different with each storm.

For SWFE it's north of here

For suppressed systems it's south of here

 

This area does not benefit from gradient patterns because these kinds of tracks don't give significant snowfalls in this area.

Add to that for coastal areas being near the ocean makes it even worse for SWFE

[EastonSN+]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Still too high but better than some of the OP GFS runs.

 

Yeah I never pay attention to op snowfall output as we have seen so many times especially on the GFS.

Too high but not outrageous. If we get that 2 Saturday that's 7.5, only 4 inches low on the mean not bad for a long range snowfall output imo.

[EastonSN+]

43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think it's smart to cut amounts in half.

 

Yep and if Central Park gets 2 in Saturday then it would have outperformed 50% of the output which is good for an ensemble mean.

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

inland regions are less susceptible to gradient patterns aren't they?

 

That's not the case Ocean City Maryland got destroyed this year. Literally pictures of snow accumulation on the beach. 

[eduggs]

Every storm is unique so each favors a different area. Trying to fit everything into "patterns" and storm types like "gradient" or "SWFE" is way too simplistic. There is just too much variability and randomness.

[Allsnow]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We don’t live in DC.

The gradient was south of us this week 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The gradient is different with each storm.

For SWFE it's north of here

For suppressed systems it's south of here

 

This area does not benefit from gradient patterns because these kinds of tracks don't give significant snowfalls in this area.

Add to that for coastal areas being near the ocean makes it even worse for SWFE

I think there's two points being discussed. The storm track is the issue where it's cold and dry warm and wet 1980s style. 

There is another point about it being too warm suddenly which I think is where the debate is lying where some are saying we're losing out on gradient storms because it's getting warmer but yet people are seeing snowfall on the beaches of the Gulf of Mexico. I am not saying this myself but some may be saying if we are suddenly too warm on a gradient why isn't New Orleans or Washington DC too warm for a gradient. 

I think as Blue Wave mentioned we have a current fast flow which favors weak waves to the South and amped up waves to the lakes which would explain what's going on the best. This will change at some point hopefully soon and we'll get storms like we used to but who knows how long we have to wait.

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

inland regions are less susceptible to gradient patterns aren't they?

 

Yeah, gradient patterns tend to shift further north with heaviest snow totals than models expect around our area especially when there is no strong 50/50 low and confluence. The opposite was true in January when we had the record strong 50/50 low nearby. So the snowfall initially forecast over the Northeast especially on some OP GFS runs went to our south. The model error patterns have been highly predictable.

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The gradient is different with each storm.

For SWFE it's north of here

For suppressed systems it's south of here

 

This area does not benefit from gradient patterns because these kinds of tracks don't give significant snowfalls in this area.

Add to that for coastal areas being near the ocean makes it even worse for SWFE

We did okay with the SWFE on LI on Sat because the precip came in heavy and held off the warm air aloft. That's really the key with those that don't track/transfer in a bad spot. The significant majority have some problem which make them better north of here or precip that comes in shredded up, so the warm air can advance easier.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think there's two points being discussed. The storm track is the issue where it's cold and dry warm and wet 1980s style. 

There is another point about it being too warm suddenly which I think is where the debate is lying where some are saying we're losing out on gradient storms because it's getting warmer but yet people are seeing snowfall on the beaches of the Gulf of Mexico. I am not saying this myself but some may be saying if we are suddenly too warm on a gradient why isn't New Orleans or Washington DC too warm for a gradient. 

I think as Blue Wave mentioned we have a current fast flow which favors weak waves to the South and amped up waves to the lakes which would explain what's going on the best. This will change at some point hopefully soon and we'll get storms like we used to but who knows how long we have to wait.

Yes, some of these storms from the 80s sound very familiar.  note-- the amounts were slightly higher back then (colder)?

 

WINTER OF 1984-85

Feb. 5, 1985 - The biggest snow of the winter began this evening and continued through next morning, accumulating 5.7".  3.3" of the snow fell tonight.  This came three days after a snowfall of 4.3".  After this snow just 0.2" fell for the rest of the winter.

 

WINTER OF 1985-86

Feb. 11, 1986 - The second 4.5" snowfall in the past four days occurred today and occurred between daybreak and noontime.  These two small snowstorms accounted for most of the winter's thirteen inches of snow (half of the typical amount).

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We did okay with the SWFE on LI on Sat because the precip came in heavy and held off the warm air aloft. That's really the key with those that don't track/transfer in a bad spot. The significant majority have some problem which make them better north of here or precip that comes in shredded up, so the warm air can advance easier.

Yep, that one reminded me of the February 2008 SWFE.  It was key that they happened mostly at night and came in with a wall of snow.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That's not the case Ocean City Maryland got destroyed this year. Literally pictures of snow accumulation on the beach. 

Maybe there is a difference with an east facing beach vs a south facing beach in SWFE (a southwest flow is land based when the ocean is to your east, but comes off the ocean when the ocean is to your south.)

 

[SACRUS]

35  / 27 had 2 inches of snowfall.  

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1999)
NYC: 62 (2018)
LGA: 63 (2018)
JFK: 61 (2022)

Lows:

EWR: -1 (1979)
NYC: -2 (1914)
LGA: 4 (1979)
JFK: 4 (1979)

 

Historical:

 

1784: Ice floes were spotted in the Gulf of Mexico after passing out the Mississippi River in February 1784. Ice blocked the river in New Orleans, Louisiana. The ice in New Orleans is one of two times that this occurred during the Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899. The eruption of Laki in Iceland from June 8, 1783, through February 7, 1784, is the likely cause for the severe winter of 1783 - 1784.

1899 - Texas and the eastern plains experienced their coldest morning of modern record. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth TX, and to 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City MO. The temperature at Camp Clarke NE plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a record for the state. In the eastern U.S., Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston SC received a record four inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1899: The bitter cold outbreak of February 1899 continued across the southern Plains, Texas, and the Deep South. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth, Texas, and 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City, Missouri. Nebraska’s temperature at Camp Clarke plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The all-time record low for Oklahoma City was set when the temperature fell to a frigid 17 degrees below zero, breaking the previous record low of 12 below zero, set on the previous day. Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston, SC, received a record four inches of snow. Snow was also reported in Fort Myers, Tampa, and Tallahassee in Florida. 

1958 - Snow blanketed northern Florida, with Tallahassee reporting a record 2.8 inches. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 25 miles south of Fort Morgan AL, reported zero visibility in heavy snow on the afternoon of the 12th. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1960 - A snowstorm in the Deep South produced more than a foot of snow in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm in the eastern U.S. produced high winds from North Carolina to Maine. A storm in the western U.S. produced up to thirty inches of snow in the Sierra Nevada Range of California. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A classic "nor'easter" formed off the Carolina coast and intensified as it moved up the Atlantic coast bringing heavy snow to the northeastern U.S. Totals ranged up to 26 inches at Camden NY and Chester MA. Arctic cold gripped the north central U.S. Duluth MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 32 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably mild weather prevailed across Alaska. Morning lows of 29 degrees at Anchorage and 31 degrees at Fairbanks were actually warmer than those in northern Florida. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Strong southerly winds ahead of an arctic cold front pushed temperatures into the 70s as far north as Iowa and Nebraska. Twenty-one cities in the central U.S., seven in Iowa, reported record high temperatures for the date. Lincoln NE reported a record high of 73 degrees, and the afternoon high of 59 degrees at Minneapolis MN smashed their previous record for the date by twelve degrees. Springfield IL reported a record forty-eight consecutive days with above normal temperatures. (The National Weather Summary)

2006 - An intense snow squall off of Lake Michigan cuts visibility to zero along a section of US 31. The resulting whiteout causes 96 cars to pile up. 25 were injured.

 

2017: There was an imminent failure of the auxiliary spillway on the Oroville Dam in California.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

NYC Feb 12, 1975 : 7.8 inches off snowfall

EWR :  9.4 inches of snowfall

[Allsnow]

Nyc has 6.1 for the month 

 

@SnoSki14

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1999)
NYC: 62 (2018)
LGA: 63 (2018)
JFK: 61 (2022)

Lows:

EWR: -1 (1979)
NYC: -2 (1914)
LGA: 4 (1979)
JFK: 4 (1979)

 

Historical:

 

1784: Ice floes were spotted in the Gulf of Mexico after passing out the Mississippi River in February 1784. Ice blocked the river in New Orleans, Louisiana. The ice in New Orleans is one of two times that this occurred during the Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899. The eruption of Laki in Iceland from June 8, 1783, through February 7, 1784, is the likely cause for the severe winter of 1783 - 1784.

1899 - Texas and the eastern plains experienced their coldest morning of modern record. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth TX, and to 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City MO. The temperature at Camp Clarke NE plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a record for the state. In the eastern U.S., Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston SC received a record four inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1899: The bitter cold outbreak of February 1899 continued across the southern Plains, Texas, and the Deep South. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth, Texas, and 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City, Missouri. Nebraska’s temperature at Camp Clarke plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The all-time record low for Oklahoma City was set when the temperature fell to a frigid 17 degrees below zero, breaking the previous record low of 12 below zero, set on the previous day. Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston, SC, received a record four inches of snow. Snow was also reported in Fort Myers, Tampa, and Tallahassee in Florida. 

1958 - Snow blanketed northern Florida, with Tallahassee reporting a record 2.8 inches. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 25 miles south of Fort Morgan AL, reported zero visibility in heavy snow on the afternoon of the 12th. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1960 - A snowstorm in the Deep South produced more than a foot of snow in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm in the eastern U.S. produced high winds from North Carolina to Maine. A storm in the western U.S. produced up to thirty inches of snow in the Sierra Nevada Range of California. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A classic "nor'easter" formed off the Carolina coast and intensified as it moved up the Atlantic coast bringing heavy snow to the northeastern U.S. Totals ranged up to 26 inches at Camden NY and Chester MA. Arctic cold gripped the north central U.S. Duluth MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 32 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Unseasonably mild weather prevailed across Alaska. Morning lows of 29 degrees at Anchorage and 31 degrees at Fairbanks were actually warmer than those in northern Florida. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Strong southerly winds ahead of an arctic cold front pushed temperatures into the 70s as far north as Iowa and Nebraska. Twenty-one cities in the central U.S., seven in Iowa, reported record high temperatures for the date. Lincoln NE reported a record high of 73 degrees, and the afternoon high of 59 degrees at Minneapolis MN smashed their previous record for the date by twelve degrees. Springfield IL reported a record forty-eight consecutive days with above normal temperatures. (The National Weather Summary)

2006 - An intense snow squall off of Lake Michigan cuts visibility to zero along a section of US 31. The resulting whiteout causes 96 cars to pile up. 25 were injured.

 

2017: There was an imminent failure of the auxiliary spillway on the Oroville Dam in California.

 

 

 

wow lots of extreme cold and deep south snow on this date

 

1784: Ice floes were spotted in the Gulf of Mexico after passing out the Mississippi River in February 1784. Ice blocked the river in New Orleans, Louisiana. The ice in New Orleans is one of two times that this occurred during the Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899. The eruption of Laki in Iceland from June 8, 1783, through February 7, 1784, is the likely cause for the severe winter of 1783 - 1784.

1899 - Texas and the eastern plains experienced their coldest morning of modern record. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth TX, and to 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City MO. The temperature at Camp Clarke NE plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a record for the state. In the eastern U.S., Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston SC received a record four inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1899: The bitter cold outbreak of February 1899 continued across the southern Plains, Texas, and the Deep South. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth, Texas, and 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City, Missouri. Nebraska’s temperature at Camp Clarke plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The all-time record low for Oklahoma City was set when the temperature fell to a frigid 17 degrees below zero, breaking the previous record low of 12 below zero, set on the previous day. Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston, SC, received a record four inches of snow. Snow was also reported in Fort Myers, Tampa, and Tallahassee in Florida. 

1958 - Snow blanketed northern Florida, with Tallahassee reporting a record 2.8 inches. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 25 miles south of Fort Morgan AL, reported zero visibility in heavy snow on the afternoon of the 12th. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1960 - A snowstorm in the Deep South produced more than a foot of snow in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. (David Ludlum)

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC Feb 12, 1975 : 7.8 inches off snowfall

EWR :  9.4 inches of snowfall

 

Tony, anything for us from these two storms?

1987 - A storm in the eastern U.S. produced high winds from North Carolina to Maine. A storm in the western U.S. produced up to thirty inches of snow in the Sierra Nevada Range of California. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A classic "nor'easter" formed off the Carolina coast and intensified as it moved up the Atlantic coast bringing heavy snow to the northeastern U.S. Totals ranged up to 26 inches at Camden NY and Chester MA. Arctic cold gripped the north central U.S. Duluth MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 32 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow lots of extreme cold and deep south snow on this date

 

1784: Ice floes were spotted in the Gulf of Mexico after passing out the Mississippi River in February 1784. Ice blocked the river in New Orleans, Louisiana. The ice in New Orleans is one of two times that this occurred during the Great Arctic Outbreak of 1899. The eruption of Laki in Iceland from June 8, 1783, through February 7, 1784, is the likely cause for the severe winter of 1783 - 1784.

1899 - Texas and the eastern plains experienced their coldest morning of modern record. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth TX, and to 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City MO. The temperature at Camp Clarke NE plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a record for the state. In the eastern U.S., Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston SC received a record four inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1899: The bitter cold outbreak of February 1899 continued across the southern Plains, Texas, and the Deep South. The mercury dipped to 8 degrees below zero at Fort Worth, Texas, and 22 degrees below zero at Kansas City, Missouri. Nebraska’s temperature at Camp Clarke plunged to 47 degrees below zero to establish a state record. The all-time record low for Oklahoma City was set when the temperature fell to a frigid 17 degrees below zero, breaking the previous record low of 12 below zero, set on the previous day. Washington D.C. hit 15 degrees below zero, while Charleston, SC, received a record four inches of snow. Snow was also reported in Fort Myers, Tampa, and Tallahassee in Florida. 

1958 - Snow blanketed northern Florida, with Tallahassee reporting a record 2.8 inches. A ship in the Gulf of Mexico, 25 miles south of Fort Morgan AL, reported zero visibility in heavy snow on the afternoon of the 12th. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1960 - A snowstorm in the Deep South produced more than a foot of snow in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. (David Ludlum)

1783-84 was also our snowiest and coldest winter of that century.

[winterwx21]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it will still run tonight?

It's running now thankfully. 

[wdrag]

NO new thread for a wintry event 2/19-22 til late Thursday - 2/13 at the earliest  or until ensembles come together again. Too chancy on a miss

[donsutherland1]

Overnight, a storm passing well south of the region brought a light snowfall to the region. Snowfall amounts included:

Atlantic City: 7.8"
Baltimore: 3.8"
Bridgeport: 2.0"
New York City-Central Park: 1.5"
New York City-JFK Airport: 1.8"
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.5"
Newark: 1.5"
Philadelphia: 3.1"
Washington, DC: 6.4"

The storm was Washington, DC's second 6" or greater snowstorm this winter. The last time a winter had two such storms was Winter 2013-2014.

Another system will follow closely behind. This system will bring another light snowfall followed by a fairly quick changeover to sleet and then rain tomorrow. Little or no accumulation is likely in New York City.

After mid-month, a period of much below normal temperatures is likely. A generally colder outcome is likely during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +0.14 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.009 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.7° (3.2° below normal).

 

[Krs4Lfe]

With a screaming northern jet, I doubt anyone in the northeast will see something significant from the storm signal between the 17th and 20th. We’ve seen all season how the fast northern stream has not been able to align with vortexes within the southern stream, and without a phase, most places north of the southern mid-Atlantic will struggle to see anything significant. Proceed at your own risk with any large storm depictions. The base state is for a fast northern stream bringing light events across the northern tier. Never good to bet against the base state  

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes, some of these storms from the 80s sound very familiar.  note-- the amounts were slightly higher back then (colder)?

 

WINTER OF 1984-85

Feb. 5, 1985 - The biggest snow of the winter began this evening and continued through next morning, accumulating 5.7".  3.3" of the snow fell tonight.  This came three days after a snowfall of 4.3".  After this snow just 0.2" fell for the rest of the winter.

 

WINTER OF 1985-86

Feb. 11, 1986 - The second 4.5" snowfall in the past four days occurred today and occurred between daybreak and noontime.  These two small snowstorms accounted for most of the winter's thirteen inches of snow (half of the typical amount).

Thanks for these. Always hard to tell if would be that different today.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe there is a difference with an east facing beach vs a south facing beach in SWFE (a southwest flow is land based when the ocean is to your east, but comes off the ocean when the ocean is to your south.)

 

Barrier island so water east south and west. 

[EastonSN+]

18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

NO new thread for a wintry event 2/19-22 til late Thursday - 2/13 at the earliest  or until ensembles come together again. Too chancy on a miss

I am usually positive thinking however not feeling good on 2/19 to 2/22. The confluence is strong. 

[wishcast_hater]

I think every snow event I have had this season has been at night. Anyone else notice that ?


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