February 2025

[steve392]

29 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The storm will make its own cold air

So and so says.....

This pattern reminds me of 1947

It's only Dec 9th....

Get your sleep now....

Snow breeds snow was my favorite

[NEG NAO]

Fun times ahead 1st week of Feb

GFS Model – Total Snowfall (10:1 SLR) for Northeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

[SHELEG]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Fun times ahead 1st week of Feb

GFS Model – Total Snowfall (10:1 SLR) for Northeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

Looks pretty miserable for NYC

[MANDA]

3 hours ago, North and West said:

Come back around Thanksgiving to do it all again! Greatest hits include your favorite seasonal classics such as:

It Never Snows Anymore
When It’s Cold It’s Not Actually Cold Because When I Was Young It Was Colder
Baby, It’s Warm Outside (Each and Every Christmas)
No One Knows What’s Actually Going to Happen (Except for Me)
Where You Live Is Not Part of the Metro Region

Bonus Tracks:

Insane Twitter Posts
Clinically Insane Snowfall Maps


.

and the oh so popular newly released single from late December 2024:

Buckle up !

[MJO812]

Maybe some snow Sunday 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe some snow Sunday 

and again mid - later next week

[qg_omega]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe some snow Sunday 

Your friends are all in

 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Won't matter if the cold air source is gone...

The cold air source is still around .

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

and again mid - later next week

Yep we have a few shots

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Yep we have a few shots

0Z Canadian 

[vegan_edible]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

0Z Canadian 

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, North and West said:

Come back around Thanksgiving to do it all again! Greatest hits include your favorite seasonal classics such as:

It Never Snows Anymore
When It’s Cold It’s Not Actually Cold Because When I Was Young It Was Colder
Baby, It’s Warm Outside (Each and Every Christmas)
No One Knows What’s Actually Going to Happen (Except for Me)
Where You Live Is Not Part of the Metro Region

Bonus Tracks:

Insane Twitter Posts
Clinically Insane Snowfall Maps


.

This is exactly why our subforum is the best!

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

We got lucky with over a foot of snow between those 2 snow events here during that week last February. Just goes to show that you never know. The pattern last February wasn't very good yet we got plenty of snow. I know it isn't looking great right now, but there's no way I'm giving up on winter on January 28th. 

It hasn't been bad to this point either with 10 inches of snow here. We just had snow on the ground for a week. Obviously we will be falling well below average in snowfall though if we don't see much in the next few weeks. Hopefully we'll see a good storm or two in February. 

Even February 2018 which was a proverbial torch la nina February had a 4" snowstorm right in the middle of the torch.  We might not get a big KU event but two moderate events are just as good as a low end KU event.  In some ways even better.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Even February 2018 which was a proverbial torch la nina February had a 4" snowstorm right in the middle of the torch.  We might not get a big KU event but two moderate events are just as good as a low end KU event.  In some ways even better.

Feb 1999 had very little but we did get a March storm

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

What was the winter when we had an additional 43" after this point?

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don, the ATL statistics are astounding.

But I am confused, why are looking at Atlanta's snowfall numbers?

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Feb 1999 had very little but we did get a March storm

the 90s had some nice March snowfalls, even during the early 90s snowfall drought.

[Stormlover74]

March 15 1999

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s been the storm tracks since 18-19 which have been main the issue. The much faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has resulted in the predominant cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. The KU BM track has been missing much of this time with a brief appearance during 20-21 areawide and more localized in January 22. But January 22 was a little too far east so areas further west missed out.  This is why we had some of the lowest snowfall totals on record for a La Niña December into January with a +PNA, -EPO, and -AO pattern this year so far. The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet didn’t relax like it did during past La Niña years with strong +PNAs and -AOs.

Now that the 500 mb vortex is relaxing east of New England the Southeast Ridge is returning. So we will lose the suppressed storm track risk and substitute it for a hugger or cutter blend risk of warmer potential at the coast. At best maybe we could put together  a smaller or maybe moderate event at some point in February. But it’s not looking like a BM KU which is necessary to get us above 20” is on the horizon. 

La Nina’s are usually frontloaded by nature. So many times the highest seasonal events would have occurred by February 1st. The big question now is if we will be able to go over 10” on the season. Still too early to tell if that will be the case before the season ends. But it’s not a bad thing to keep some hope going for such an occurrence.

Last February actually had a much better storm track pattern for snow than anything we have seen this year so far. Record breaking STJ pattern in mid-February since it was an El Niño which are backloaded by nature. But that was only a one week window and many areas missed that great event in Central NJ. But some areas did very well with a +5 departure. Much better than the -2 to -3 this month. So it comes down to storm tracks since it’s usually cold enough to snow this time of year even during winter months that average closer to 40°. It’s just if you want a 50” season near NYC the winter average needs to be near 32° with great BM KU storm tracks. But this hasn’t happened since 13-14 and 14-15.

So this month I would be more concerned with trying to get a better storm track rather than whether we get a +1 departure or something closer to +2 or +3. Since either way it will be cold enough to snow. The most important temperatures are on storm day with the right storm track.

March is a different story as we need both good storm tracks and cold enough temperatures for snow. Since even an average March in the low around NYC 40s can be marginal for snow. We had a great run of colder Marches from 2010 to 2018 with cold and great storm tracks. But the Marches in the 2020s so far have featured both too warm to snow and unfavorable stoem tracks. Even with the great -AO in March 2022.

So we are going to need a return to KU MB storm tracks next 3-4 years in order to avoid the lowest 10 running means for snowfall that we have ever seen. Absent a big shift, the current 5 year mean near 14” in NYC and surrounding sites will become a 10 year average which has never happened before. Same goes for several coastal sites. The BM KU tracks need to return in a big way in order to avoid the first decade average well under 20”. We don’t have the colder climate of the past which would give us over 20” with frequent small to moderate events which was common before the 90s. Several years didn’t need KUs to get above 20”. All our average to above average seasons since the 90s have required KU events with a 10” or 12” max somewhere between EWR and Eastern Long Island.

Question, why are hugger tracks more likely with a fast Pacific Jet? Is there some reason a BM track becomes less likely than a hugger track? Or are we talking about thread the needle events and there are simply more ways to get screwed than there are to get hit?

 

Also, in the past with a fast Pacific jet (like 1993-94) we used to have bowling ball lows go just south of us instead of completely suppressed.  What happened to what were once common lows that would cross the country west to east and exit off the DelMarva up to South Jersey? Those used to be good for 4-6 inch snowfalls and we used to get at least a couple of those every month between December and March.  What happened to them?

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Northern Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region's should do much better than the Middle Atlantic region if the forecast pattern develops.

The Middle Atlantic did very well in snowfall so far this winter though, they got theirs lol.

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, wdrag said:

wish it were believable... after we had a decent setup for this coming weekend, and even overnight still some GFS op's had snowy cycles.. but the same model ensembles said no and again the GEFS for 2/6-7 has less than an inch.

 

I cant bite... still trying to salvage a part of this 2/1-2 weekend with some snow down here, which I still think is possible-but a long shot.  (MODELS all over the place and rarely do I see a winter pattern miss by 24 hours on speed-all to do with the southern-northern stream interactions which I still dont think are resolved).
 

In the meantime, maybe colder other nation ensembles will prevail but I dont like what  I see in the GEFS.  Maybe CPC will keep the door open more than what I see. 

Hang in there... it will snow again in NYC. 

This is what I dont understand, how did this storm magically get sped up 24 hours and ruin our historically dry January? With a strong southeast ridge, shouldn't the ridge block the storm from being able to move east?

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Southeast ridge dominated pattern which is being enhanced by the crap mjo phases. Snow is done for a while in the mid Atlantic 

If the ridge is so strong how did it magically speed up this storm to bring it on Friday? Every time I've seen a strong south east ridge, it holds a storm off to our west and doesn't let it come here for days.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Won't matter if the cold air source is gone...

He's probably just saying the weather is more interesting when something is falling even if it's rain vs useless cold and dry.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Your friends are all in

 

Some people like this kind of weather over cold and dry.

I'm not one of them but there's probably  a lot of people who just want to see precip, regardless of what it is.

 

[NEG NAO]

Next week is now going to feature our next storm threat/thread as several models including the 0Z Euro are showing an east coast storm sometime mid - late next week

[donsutherland1]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

What was the winter when we had an additional 43" after this point?

Winter 1895-96.

[EastonSN+]

19 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Well he no longer posts here but we've shared his tweets

LOL LOL.

Allow me to clarify my statement. If it's a red tagger, Blue Wave or Don that are currently on this board it's a trustworthy source as they would provide evidence and not state such a claim. 

If it's a Twitter person that is not a current poster, I would be leery. 

[EastonSN+]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But I am confused, why are looking at Atlanta's snowfall numbers?

To provide additional granularity. So years where it snowed in Atlanta, the results ended up as provided by Don.

[EastonSN+]

The wave is weakening as it heads toward phase 8, however still has decent amplitude. With the lag still looking at the last week of February.

[snowman19]

This is going to be one of the latest peaking La Nina’s on record. They are usually falling apart in February, not strengthening and peaking. Even for a late bloomer La Niña, this is ridiculous. IMO, this argues for a canonical La Niña pattern continuing for longer than some people are thinking