EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: when is it predicted to get back to 0? Right around the 20th which is when we have that wave passing to our South. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: suppressed like March 2014? No this looks like just a repeat generally of December and January where the trough access is in a bad spot for us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Unfortunately, someone always seems to be in a snow hole. Winters like 95-96 and 02-03 are extremely rare, there were no snow holes in those winters. 95/96 I think was fairly snowless across the southern US. Oklahoma to SC got very little snow despite how active that winter was. 93-94 was also the least snowiest winter ever in MCI and ICT I believe so you get weird anomalies all over even in good years 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: No this looks like just a repeat generally of December and January where the trough access is in a bad spot for us. mother nature remembers..... whatever caused it then is still there and will cause it again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Right around the 20th which is when we have that wave passing to our South. hopefully we get a storm out of it, one good storm is all we need 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: mother nature remembers..... whatever caused it then is still there and will cause it again What's hilarious is that this is not a negative EPO it's a positive PNA but yet the trough is in the same spot lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Remember the h5 setup was completely different. Also not just specifically speaking of that one storm event but rather the season as a whole which had some frigid ice storms. but a very sharp cut off just to our south. I remember being jealous of Boston because they got all the snow early in the season while we just had ice. Our turn came in February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 This is AO driven not nao. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, EastonSN+ said: What's hilarious is that this is not a negative EPO it's a positive PNA but yet the trough is in the same spot lol. it would be great if we could figure out what causes the repetition in the same season even with different index values lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, LibertyBell said: but a very sharp cut off just to our south. I remember being jealous of Boston because they got all the snow early in the season while we just had ice. Our turn came in February. And that's the difference that was the polar vortex to our North which is completely different than this year which is blocking based. New England has had a warm winter as opposed to that year where it was frigid for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 38 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Doesn’t lack of sea ice in late summer tend to cause more blocking in winter or at least it’s believed to more often than not? I have heard that negative AO favors the Mid-Atlantic while a negative nao favors the Northeast. This would explain why in this episode the Middle Atlantic scores are not us. The nao barely goes negative while the AO is strongly negative and of course the Middle Atlantic got the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I have heard that negative AO favors the Mid-Atlantic while a negative nao favors the Northeast. This would explain why in this episode the Middle Atlantic scores are not us. The nao barely goes negative while the AO is strongly negative and of course the Middle Atlantic got the storm. you can't consider Philadelphia in the MidAtlantic this season, their snowfall deficit is as bad as New York City's. The entire coastal city corridor from Philadelphia to Boston is in a 7-8 inch snowfall deficit. Philadelphia only has 7.5 inches of snow this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 The AO, EPO, PNA stuff is like vodoo. If you are a true believer, you might see a causal connection to an outcome in hindsight. But those parameters are simplistic, numerical representations of a very complex atmosphere-ocean interaction. They are merely broad descriptions of characteristics over a very large geographic area. The correlations to local weather outcomes are very tenuous. Our weather, storm tracks, and rain vs. snow are local phenomena. The details of synoptic progression and evolution matter far more than the state of the indices. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: What is causing the increased frequency of intense blocking? We keep getting blocking episodes over the past few years over and over again so it has to be increasing. The amplitude and volatility of the AO, NAO, and other 500 mb patterns has been increasing between deeper lows and higher highs closer together. As the ocean and atmosphere warm the 500mb patterns, jet stream, and storm tracks become more erratic. So we get these odd pairings of features of the like the Southeast Ridge merging with Greenland Blocks which didn’t used to happen in the way we have been seeing in the 2020s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Next week should be our best shot with the favorable MJO and teleconnections ( should ) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Next week should be our best shot with the favorable MJO and teleconnections ( should ) Saturday could be largest storm for some in this period 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Next week should be our best shot with the favorable MJO and teleconnections ( should ) If we can get a storm then we'll have snow retention for at least 2 weeks as it gets really cold afterwards. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/6/2025 at 8:13 PM, Nibor said: It's like the dam finally breaking. What does tomorrow morning THURSDAY look like is it just plain rain for most of us - will anyone be dealing with ice for their commutes ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 @Bluewave @DonSutherland1 Seeing a lot of hype on Twitter about the MJO going into phase 1 at the tail end of this month and how that supports a very cold and snowy east. Am I missing something? Here is the composite for MJO phase 1/-ENSO/February: @EastonSN+ Yes, this is a La Niña (-ENSO) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 23 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @Bluewave @DonSutherland1 Seeing a lot of hype on Twitter about the MJO going into phase 1 at the tail end of this month and how that supports a very cold and snowy east. Am I missing something? Here is the composite for MJO phase 1/-ENSO/February: Is that La Nina? Also the ensembles agree on a trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13.5" for the season here. Not doing too bad in the snowfall department, but a little disappointing to be slightly below normal considering how cold it has been. We can nickel and dime our way to 20 inches, but hopefully we'll see a significant snowstorm at some point so we can get to average snowfall (high 20s here) for the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 13.5" for the season here. Not doing too bad in the snowfall department, but a little disappointing to be slightly below normal considering how cold it has been. We can nickel and dime our way to 20 inches, but hopefully we'll see a significant snowstorm at some point so we can get to average snowfall (high 20s here) for the season. Same. Interestingly this was my 11th measurable snow event even though 2 were dustings. Most since 2017-18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 wow gfs. too bad its a week away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I95 crusher 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I95 crusher Way too early to get excited, but Wednesday into Thursday looks like our best potential so far this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 That's the best look on the GFS. Tricky to hold it for 8 days...it'll wobble. If we are lucky we wind up coming back to this kind of solution for day 3 or so. Buffalo or DC are the goalposts and we need it right down the middle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: wow gfs. too bad its a week away and we're in the JP now-you want the GFS to be S and E at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: and we're in the JP now-you want the GFS to be S and E at this range Maybe but a week ago we were in the bullseye and it went south by 100 miles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: and we're in the JP now-you want the GFS to be S and E at this range Honestly not sure that applies anymore. I'm watching ensembles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Honestly not sure that applies anymore. I'm watching ensembles Ensembles had over 30” for this week didn’t pan out that way 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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