February 2025

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My post is based on over 60 years worth of snowfall data. The last 6 years was a microcosm of that larger set. So given that a warming climate means less snow, the snowfall average near the coast will inevitably drop under 20” next 30 years regardless of if you include the last 6 years or not.

How can we say that for certain when it's only been 6 years since they last heavily above average snowfall year of 2017 2018? The 2000 through 2018 time frame had the average above 30 inches. It was inevitably going to drop like 1970. I am not saying long-term we are not one to three inches less per year then say a 50-year average, however I am saying that a light switch did not occur in 2019. We will see another period like 1955 through 1969 or 2000 2018 again likely but not for a while. It may be warmer but it will be above average snowfall just like those periods.

[Violentweatherfan]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

clippers don't get any moisture from the ocean the reason they are moisture starved is because of fast Pacific flow.

I dont care about clippers so much, who would be excited over 1-2 inches of snow?

The intensity is what make clippers special. I’d take a nice clipper over what we are about to get. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Violentweatherfan said:

The intensity is what make clippers special. I’d take a nice clipper over what we are about to get. 

True, I remember the ones from the 80s, especially when they occurred during the day time,  Twelve hours of snow, 3-5 inches of snow with temperatures in the 20s and with high winds, they were really fun to watch.

[Violentweatherfan]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

True, I remember the ones from the 80s, especially when they occurred during the day time,  Twelve hours of snow, 3-5 inches of snow with temperatures in the 20s and with high winds, they were really fun to watch.

Exactly, to me they’re like a good summer thunderstorm.

Edit: January 30, 2020 had an excellent squall/clipper

[EastonSN+]

Best clippers of all time are 1978 and I believe it was 2005. Both clippers ended up as blizzards. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Best clippers of all time are 1978 and I believe it was 2005. Both clippers ended up as blizzards. 

2005 was like a clipper on steroids. Most of the snow west of the city fell before the low bombed off the coast. Then we got blizzard conditions the next morning as the storm pulled away and gave cape cod 3 feet 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Exactly, to me they’re like a good summer thunderstorm.

Edit: January 30, 2020 had an excellent squall/clipper

I remember-- that was our first snow squall warning!  It was like following a line of severe thunderstorms!

We had another one (not sure if this was the same one) where we had several lines of snow squalls starting around 5 PM and continuing through 11 PM.  Each time a line came through the roads got snow covered again! I wonder if that was the same event? We must have had 4 or 5 lines of snow squalls that evening, very rare around here.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Best clippers of all time are 1978 and I believe it was 2005. Both clippers ended up as blizzards. 

Was the Millenium storm another one of those?

[Violentweatherfan]

Clippers can turn into Miller B storm. It wouldn’t be winter without them 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

How can we say that for certain when it's only been 6 years since they last heavily above average snowfall year of 2017 2018? The 2000 through 2018 time frame had the average above 30 inches. It was inevitably going to drop like 1970. I am not saying long-term we are not one to three inches less per year then say a 50-year average, however I am saying that a light switch did not occur in 2019. We will see another period like 1955 through 1969 or 2000 2018 again likely but not for a while. It may be warmer but it will be above average snowfall just like those periods.

What happened since the 1990s was that a greater percentage of snowfall was coming in bigger events. So this masked the decline in the years when we didn’t get big KU events. In a colder and more stable climate we had a wider distribution of snowfall types including smaller, moderate, and major. The data suggests  that we  aren’t headed back to a 1961 1991 regime with the long term average in the 20s. But a new regime  over the next 30 years of under 20 “ since the climate has warmed so much since then 

From 18-19 to 23-24 NYC only averaged around 15” due to the record warmth and lack of KU events. Unfortunately, the long range climate projections have been suggesting this eventual outcome over the next 30 years for a while now.

This season is an interesting case so far. Past cases of this amount of cold and similar long wave 500mb patterns have produced 35” to 50” snowfall seasons  for NYC. But the overpowering Pacific Jet has lead to much less so far this season. That wasn’t present with past similar patterns.

Going forward my contention has been that NYC will need a heavier snowfall event before this pattern relaxes in late February in order to go over 20”. We need the storm around the 20th to avoid the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track pattern which has dominated since 18-19. But we have seen how fast modeled patterns beyond 120hrs have shifted this season to something less favorable than the models were initially showing. So I will say it’s possible we could eventually score a heavier snowstorm around  NYC before the end of February boosting the seasonal snow closer to the 24-25” range. But it’s not a guaranteed outcome since it too far out and we have seen how the longer range has disappointed this season so far.
 

[North and West]

Did you ever watch the documentary about the true life story of that crazy scientist/professor who adopted a chimpanzee and farmed him out to his female students to raise?  I can't remember the name of the documentary right now, but this guy had very questionable ethics.  He had two of his female students breastfeed the chimpanzee and he also ended up having affairs with both students (one was married and the other one was an 18 year old prodigy.)  When he dumped the 18 year old she went into a tailspin and quit his program.  But went to a different school and decades later became one of the world's most pre-eminent behavior biologists!
 

.

[North and West]

Every model has a big system 

You know more than I do. It just seems like noise a lot of the time.


.

[forkyfork]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

2005 was like a clipper on steroids. Most of the snow west of the city fell before the low bombed off the coast. Then we got blizzard conditions the next morning as the storm pulled away and gave cape cod 3 feet 

those systems came from manitoba 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was the Millenium storm another one of those?

Not 100% but think so.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

those systems came from manitoba 

it's  a mauler!

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, North and West said:

.

they did some strange things in the 70s!

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

What happened since the 1990s was that a greater percentage of snowfall was coming in bigger events. So this masked the decline in the years when we didn’t get big KU events. In a colder and more stable climate we had a wider distribution of snowfall types including smaller, moderate, and major. The data suggests  that we  aren’t headed back to a 1961 1991 regime with the long term average in the 20s. But a new regime  over the next 30 years of under 20 “ since the climate has warmed so much since then 

From 18-19 to 23-24 NYC only averaged around 15” due to the record warmth and lack of KU events. Unfortunately, the long range climate projections have been suggesting this eventual outcome over the next 30 years for a while now.

This season is an interesting case so far. Past cases of this amount of cold and similar long wave 500mb patterns have produced 35” to 50” snowfall seasons  for NYC. But the overpowering Pacific Jet has lead to much less so far this season. That wasn’t present with past similar patterns.

Going forward my contention has been that NYC will need a heavier snowfall event before this pattern relaxes in late February in order to go over 20”. We need the storm around the 20th to avoid the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track pattern which has dominated since 18-19. But we have seen how fast modeled patterns beyond 120hrs have shifted this season to something less favorable than the models were initially showing. So I will say it’s possible we could eventually score a heavier snowstorm around  NYC before the end of February boosting the seasonal snow closer to the 24-25” range. But it’s not a guaranteed outcome since it too far out and we have seen how the longer range has disappointed this season so far.
 

This site has an interesting chronicle of all our 5 inch and greater snow storms going all the way back to 1900

 

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2013/01/new-york-city-snowstorms-1979-2011-.html

 

organized by calendar date

 

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html

 

organized by winter

 

 

https://www.thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/page/15/

 

 

largest snowfalls in above freezing temperatures (some recent ones)

 

https://www.thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/page/24/

 

highlights of 2015

 

 

[Nibor]

6 minutes ago, North and West said:

You know more than I do. It just seems like noise a lot of the time.


.

Long range ensemble teleconnections support the possibility of a large storm at that timeframe. The 20th looks good but it’s not a guarantee. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Long range ensemble teleconnections support the possibility of a large storm at that timeframe. The 20th looks good but it’s not a guarantee. 

All snow is also not a guarantee 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This site has an interesting chronicle of all our 5 inch and greater snow storms going all the way back to 1900

 

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2013/01/new-york-city-snowstorms-1979-2011-.html

 

organized by calendar date

 

https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html

 

organized by winter

 

 

https://www.thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/page/15/

 

 

largest snowfalls in above freezing temperatures (some recent ones)

 

https://www.thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/page/24/

 

highlights of 2015

 

 

NYC is going to need at least one big 6-12” event before this pattern relaxes near the end of the month in order to make a run on 24” to 25” this season.

[MANDA]

9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

like I can't look at this and not get a little excited. it has every synoptic feature you're looking for

Get this to within 84-96 hours and I will be giddy!

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

All snow is also not a guarantee 

Absolutely 

[North and West]

Long range ensemble teleconnections support the possibility of a large storm at that timeframe. The 20th looks good but it’s not a guarantee. 

From your lips to my dog’s ears.


.

[SACRUS]

 

32 / 12 /  1.5 to 2.5 inches of precip which looks 80% falls wet.   1-3 snow tonight.  Much colder by the 17th - 21st.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:
 

EWR: 66 (1960)
NYC: 65 (2009)
LGA: 63 (2009)
JFK: 62 (2009)

 

Low:

 

EWR: -1 (1979)
NYC: -2 (1899)
LGA: 2 (1979)
JFK: 3 (1962)

Historical:

1895: The low temperature was 11 degrees below zero at Moline, Illinois, marking the last of 16 consecutive days on which the low temperature was at or below zero. During the first 11 days of February, Moline's highest temperature was only 13 degrees above zero. Their current average high temperature for early February is in the lower 30s.

1899 - Perhaps the greatest of all arctic outbreaks commenced on this date. The temperature plunged to 61 degrees below zero in Montana. At the same time a "Great Eastern Blizzard" left a blanket of snow from Georgia to New Hampshire. The state of Virginia took the brunt of the storm, with snowfall totals averaging 30 to 40 inches. (David Ludlum)

1983 - The Middle Atlantic Coast States and southern New England were in the midst of a major snowstorm. In Pennsylvania, the storm produced 21 inches at Philadelphia, 24 inches at Harrisburg, and 25 inches at Allentown, establishing record 24 hour totals and single storm totals for those locations. New York City received 22 inches of snow, and 35 inches was reported at Glen Gary, located in the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia. Windsor Locks CT received a record 19 inches of snow in 12 hours. The storm resulted in forty-six deaths, thirty-three of which occurred when a freighter capsized and sank off the Maryland/Virginia coast. Heavy snow was reported from northeastern Georgia to eastern Maine. (10th-12th) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

 

1983: Called the "Megalopolitan blockbuster snowstorm," this major snowstorm impacted the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Snowfall up to 25 inches fell at Allentown, Pennsylvania. Snowfall amount of 35 inches occurred in parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia at Glen Cary. Windsor Locks, Connecticut, recorded a record 19 inches in 12 hours. A ship sunk off the Virginia/Maryland coast, killing 33. There were 46 total storm-related fatalities. New 24-hour snowfall records were set in Philadelphia, Harrisburg, Allentown, Pennsylvania, and Hartford, Connecticut. Five inches of snow in one hour was recorded at Allentown and Hartford. 

1987 - Denver, CO, reported only their third occurrence of record of a thunderstorm in February. Ten cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Huron SD reported February temperatures averaging 19 degrees above normal. Williston ND reported readings averaging 24 degrees above normal for the month. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Bitter cold air gripped the north central U.S. Morning lows of 35 degrees below zero at Aberdeen SD, Bismarck ND and International Falls MN were records for the date. Bemidji MN was, officially, the cold spot in the nation with a low of 39 degrees below zero, however, a reading of 42 degrees below zero was reported at Gettysburg SD. In the Northern High Plains Region, Baker MT warmed from 27 degrees below zero to 40 above. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - While much of the continental U.S. enjoyed sunshine and seasonable temperatures, a strong weather system over the Hawaiian Islands deluged Honolulu with 2.5 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm produced up to ten inches of snow in Vermont, and up to nine inches of snow in Aroostook County of northeastern Maine. A three day snowstorm began to overspread Oregon, and the winter storm produced 29 inches of snow at Bennett Pass. Mild weather continued in the central U.S. La Crosse WI reported a record forty-seven consecutive days with temperatures above normal. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2004 - North Dakota Governor John Hoeven declares a snow emergency as winds gusting over 70 mph along with heavy snow produces low visibilities and drifts up to 20 feet in northwestern North Dakota. Amtrak train service is interrupted in the region. The Weather Doctor

2006 - Snowfall records fell in Philadelphia and Allentown, Pennsylvania, Bridgeport and Hartford, Connecticut, Newark, New Jersey, and Worchester and Boston, Massachusetts. The highest total reported was 30.2 inches at Fairfield, CT. New York City set a record one-day snowfall record of 26.9 inches in Central Park.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

NYC Snowfall

 

Feb 11, 1983 : 17.6 snowfall
Feb 11, 1986 : 4.4 inches of snowfall
Feb 11, 1994 : 12.8 inches of snowall
Feb 11-12, 2006: 26.9 inches of snowfall

[SACRUS]

 

1983:

 

[SACRUS]

Feb 11, 1994

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC Snowfall

 

Feb 11, 1983 : 17.6 snowfall
Feb 11, 1986 : 4.4 inches of snowfall
Feb 11, 1994 : 12.8 inches of snowall
Feb 11, 2006: 26.9 inches of snowfall

What was the JFK total from February 1983 (over 20 inches?) and February 1994 Tony?

[SACRUS]

 

2006