February 2025

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The difference back in that era was that we didn’t have the persistent have cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks like since 18-19. We would get clippers dropping south of us for snow. Plus we often get coastal tracks near the BM which weren’t KU events but more moderate events. Then there were the KU years sprinkled in but not of the 2010 to 2018 frequency and magnitude. So we had more options for NYC to get to within the 19” to 29” range which was very common. These days we need a major snowstorm or multiple ones for NYC to approach the 24” to 25” range. So there was more variety to get the job done instead of having to rely exclusively on KU NESIS events since the 1990s.

And I fully believe we will get back to clippers dropping South and get three to six four to eight snow storms at some point again. From 2000 to 2018 this board was actually discussing how the coastal hugger was completely extinct and Albany and inland was complaining that the coast always got snow. Well since 2017 the coastal hugger has become unextinct so I fully expect the same for clippers. In fact we have some clippers they have just been moisture starved which is odd considering the higher moisture content from the higher ocean temperatures. 

Also remember in that 30-year period of 1970 through 1999, 14 out of the 30 years were below 19 inches for Central Park. Almost 50%.

As the weather always changes, at some point the fast flow will calm down and it'll change and maybe for the worst or better depending on other factors,but it will change.

And a question I have is why is nobody analyzing the warmer temperatures in the Indian Ocean and just focusing on Indonesia?

If Forky is correct and saying that warmer Waters circulate to the Western areas of our oceans (I mean it's true of curse), the same must hold true for the Indian Ocean which would increase the frequency and intensity of phases 1 and 2 which are colder for this region. It's sort of a balance if you will. However this ocean seems to be totally ignored. 

My mind is blown however on how well Ocean City Maryland has been doing since 2018, it's mind-boggling. My childhood vacation spot which is completely surrounded by water, one side the bay, one side the ocean and is a toaster bath with extreme humidity in the summertime. 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Tend to agree.   We have not had a big cutter all season so have to factor in the seasonal trend here...

we've not even had more than a few days 50 or above.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

And I fully believe we will get back to clippers dropping South and get three to six four to eight snow storms at some point again. From 2000 to 2018 this board was actually discussing how the coastal hugger was completely extinct and Albany and inland was complaining that the coast always got snow. Well since 2017 the coastal hugger has become unextinct so I fully expect the same for clippers. In fact we have some clippers they have just been moisture starved which is odd considering the higher moisture content from the higher ocean temperatures. 

Also remember in that 30-year period of 1970 through 1999, 14 out of the 30 years were below 19 inches for Central Park. Almost 50%.

As the weather always changes, at some point the fast flow will calm down and it'll change and maybe for the worst or better depending on other factors,but it will change.

And a question I have is why is nobody analyzing the warmer temperatures in the Indian Ocean and just focusing on Indonesia?

If Forky is correct and saying that warmer Waters circulate to the Western areas of our oceans (I mean it's true of curse), the same must hold true for the Indian Ocean which would increase the frequency and intensity of phases 1 and 2 which are colder for this region. It's sort of a balance if you will. However this ocean seems to be totally ignored. 

My mind is blown however on how well Ocean City Maryland has been doing since 2018, it's mind-boggling. My childhood vacation spot which is completely surrounded by water, one side the bay, one side the ocean and is a toaster bath with extreme humidity in the summertime. 

clippers don't get any moisture from the ocean the reason they are moisture starved is because of fast Pacific flow.

I dont care about clippers so much, who would be excited over 1-2 inches of snow?

[EastonSN+]

Just for educational purposes this is not a cutter LOL. It's not an inland runner either. I wouldn't even call it a coastal hugger. This depiction, and it's only one mile depiction so it can change a million times, is of an inside the benchmark track. Those give more snow than a coastal hugger but do change to ice and rain occasionally as it is inside the benchmark. I would take this in a heartbeat as you would get a good thump to start.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

clippers don't get any moisture from the ocean the reason they are moisture starved is because of fast Pacific flow.

I dont care about clippers so much, who would be excited over 1-2 inches of snow?

I am a stats guy and they are good at padding the stats.

[weatherpruf]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I don't know to me what I've experienced the past 7 years is exactly what I experienced back in the 80s and 90s, and apparently the '70s were the same too. Yes it was a little colder but the same the storm tracks were exactly the same. Always cutter hugger suppressed over and over again. 

Whether or not it has to do with the southeast ridge linking up to the AO more often than that time frame, the results are the same.

I don't want to upset the board and say that we're in a middle of a 30-year bad period for snowfall like that one was, however I was actually hopeful that the warmer temperatures would help eliminate the suppressed track and move everything a bit north (and more moisture-laden) but obviously that's not the case as DC, Ocean City Maryland, New Orleans, Kansas City, Tennessee are all doing fine while we endure suppression yet again. 

A positive would be that although temperatures are a little warmer than that time frame, we are a long long ways away from removing snow from our environment for obvious reasons. 

We will have a 1995-96 type winter again, a 2002 2003 again and so on and so on. It's just we're in a low snowfall period however where a lot of areas were losing out on snowfall during our time frame from 2000 to 2018 they are now reaping the benefits that are expense. Sharing the wealth LOL.

 

We still had 3-6 inch events though; and more toward the 6....struggling to get past 3 is new, but that may be a function of the drought type conditions, don't know. In any good snow year, and even in the poor ones back then, we had plenty of rain too. I haven't needed an umbrella very much....interestingly, I was watching the show Elementary ( I'm retired and watching shows I missed when I was busy working and seeing the kids through HS. middle school, college ) and the 3rd season was filmed in 2014, and almost every episode features a snowy background or piles of snow on the street; you'd think NYC was a winter wonderland ( a great episode is where the zebras, which Sherlock pronounces the British way, get stolen from the Bronx Zoo, and he is walking through the zoo in a snow storm, which looks like the powdery one from that January; the culprit was the post doc who genetically engineered an extinct quagga from a pair of zebras and killed the vet and put it on the black market....my son was a grad intern at the zoo! He recognized all the scenes ).Likewise, episodes of The Wire, the greatest show in tv history, were filmed in a snowy period in Baltimore, and you'd think that it too, was a snowy city ( that would have been around the early aughts ).

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Just for educational purposes this is not a cutter LOL. It's not an inland runner either. I wouldn't even call it a coastal hugger. This depiction, and it's only one mile depiction so it can change a million times, is of an inside the benchmark track. Those give more snow than a coastal hugger but do change to ice and rain occasionally as it is inside the benchmark. I would take this in a heartbeat as you would get a good thump to start.

an inside runner

it means inside of the benchmark but does the low pressure does not make landfall here

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

We still had 3-6 inch events though; and more toward the 6....struggling to get past 3 is new, but that may be a function of the drought type conditions, don't know. In any good snow year, and even in the poor ones back then, we had plenty of rain too. I haven't needed an umbrella very much....interestingly, I was watching the show Elementary ( I'm retired and watching shows I missed when I was busy working and seeing the kids through HS. middle school, college ) and the 3rd season was filmed in 2014, and almost every episode features a snowy background or piles of snow on the street; you'd think NYC was a winter wonderland ( a great episode is where the zebras, which Sherlock pronounces the British way, get stolen from the Bronx Zoo, and he is walking through the zoo in a snow storm, which looks like the powdery one from that January; the culprit was the post doc who genetically engineered an extinct quagga from a pair of zebras and killed the vet and put it on the black market....my son was a grad intern at the zoo! He recognized all the scenes ).Likewise, episodes of The Wire, the greatest show in tv history, were filmed in a snowy period in Baltimore, and you'd think that it too, was a snowy city ( that would have been around the early aughts ).

2002-03 was great at Baltimore and JFK, my second favorite season of all time after 1995-96.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

We still had 3-6 inch events though; and more toward the 6....struggling to get past 3 is new, but that may be a function of the drought type conditions, don't know. In any good snow year, and even in the poor ones back then, we had plenty of rain too. I haven't needed an umbrella very much....interestingly, I was watching the show Elementary ( I'm retired and watching shows I missed when I was busy working and seeing the kids through HS. middle school, college ) and the 3rd season was filmed in 2014, and almost every episode features a snowy background or piles of snow on the street; you'd think NYC was a winter wonderland ( a great episode is where the zebras, which Sherlock pronounces the British way, get stolen from the Bronx Zoo, and he is walking through the zoo in a snow storm, which looks like the powdery one from that January; the culprit was the post doc who genetically engineered an extinct quagga from a pair of zebras and killed the vet and put it on the black market....my son was a grad intern at the zoo! He recognized all the scenes ).Likewise, episodes of The Wire, the greatest show in tv history, were filmed in a snowy period in Baltimore, and you'd think that it too, was a snowy city ( that would have been around the early aughts ).

Hey I always wanted to bring back the quagga and the wooly mammoth! I've been absolutely fascinated with the quagga since I was 12 years old.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

clippers don't get any moisture from the ocean the reason they are moisture starved is because of fast Pacific flow.

I dont care about clippers so much, who would be excited over 1-2 inches of snow?

Me

[weatherpruf]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Me

They are best when they are coming on top of a good snowpack, which gives them a wintry feel.On top of the inch of ice I have, not so much. Or on bare grass ( the last event did not even cover the grass here ). It's a bizarre winter that features many paltry snow events, I'll say that.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hey I always wanted to bring back the quagga and the wooly mammoth! I've been absolutely fascinated with the quagga since I was 12 years old.

I think someone actually did breed a zebra that looked quite a bit like the quagga ( pronounced Kwa Hah by Sherlock, and by the way the show is worth watching for Johnny Lee Miller's outstanding performance, the actor who has played Holmes the longest, and of course the reliable Aidan Quinn and the lovely Lucy Liu as Dr. Watson, who I believe was discovered by a talent agent on the subway ).

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I think someone actually did breed a zebra that looked quite a bit like the quagga ( pronounced Kwa Hah by Sherlock, and by the way the show is worth watching for Johnny Lee Miller's outstanding performance, the actor who has played Holmes the longest, and of course the reliable Aidan Quinn and the lovely Lucy Liu as Dr. Watson, who I believe was discovered by a talent agent on the subway ).

Did you ever watch the documentary about the true life story of that crazy scientist/professor who adopted a chimpanzee and farmed him out to his female students to raise?  I can't remember the name of the documentary right now, but this guy had very questionable ethics.  He had two of his female students breastfeed the chimpanzee and he also ended up having affairs with both students (one was married and the other one was an 18 year old prodigy.)  When he dumped the 18 year old she went into a tailspin and quit his program.  But went to a different school and decades later became one of the world's most pre-eminent behavior biologists!

 

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

They are best when they are coming on top of a good snowpack, which gives them a wintry feel.On top of the inch of ice I have, not so much. Or on bare grass ( the last event did not even cover the grass here ). It's a bizarre winter that features many paltry snow events, I'll say that.

It has been but you need to measure every event and see where you end up. If I manage 2" from tonight's system I'll be at 14"... exactly halfway to my seasonal average. Hoping to still get to 20

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I mean it can't last forever right. Looking at the CFS weeklies it aligns with the mjo progression through phases 1 and 2 which are colder than average. Then around mid March reward which is good for spring. 

 

It's probably best to focus on February.  By March 1 snowfall becomes much less likely.  Even yesterday, with the sun out all afternoon it really felt like spring.  I've even noticed budding on some of my trees.  What we get March 1 and beyond is usually a wet snow that melts the same day or the next day.  Which I'm utterly fine with, since that is the nature of spring snow here.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It has been but you need to measure every event and see where you end up. If I manage 2" from tonight's system I'll be at 14"... exactly halfway to my seasonal average. Hoping to still get to 20

Sometimes it becomes hard to tell if snow fell (especially if its an overnight storm) if there is already snow on the ground.  Sure, you can look at the trees, but looking at the ground, you probably won't be able to tell much of a difference since we still have 2 inches on the ground here from the last storm.

 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Also remember in that 30-year period of 1970 through 1999, 14 out of the 30 years were below 19 inches for Central Park. Almost 50%.

The entire snowfall distribution near the coast has dramatically shifted since the 1990s. I will just use NYC as an example but all the other coastal sites have experienced the same pattern change. So we have 60+ years of data divided into 2 climate normals periods spanning 30 years each. The mid range seasonal snowfall range has greatly diminished and been replaced by all or nothing type years. Meaning well above or well below normal snowfall. This has become an issue as the climate continues the rapid warming since the 1990s. So the risk is that we continue to see this pattern increase going forward leading to the average coastal snowfall falling to around 15” or less from the 2020s into the 2040s. 
 

1960-1961  to 1992-1993 NYC snowfall distribution 

19” to 30”……17 seasons

Under 15”…..5 seasons

Over 31”……4 seasons

1993-1994 to 2023-2024

19” to 30”……4 seasons

Under 15”……11 seasons

Over 31”……..14 seasons

 

 

 

[North and West]

Gfs going to show a bomb next week

I love your enthusiasm, but doesn’t it do that all of the time?


.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The entire snowfall distribution near the coast has dramatically shifted since the 1990s. I will just use NYC as an example but all the other coastal sites have experienced the same pattern change. So we have 60+ years of data divided into 2 climate normals periods spanning 30 years each. The mid range seasonal snowfall range has greatly diminished and been replaced by all or nothing type years. Meaning well above or well below normal snowfall. This has become an issue as the climate continues the rapid warming since the 1990s. So the risk is that we continue to see this pattern increase going forward leading to the average coastal snowfall falling to around 15” or less from the 2020s into the 2040s. 
 

1960-1961  to 1992-1993 NYC snowfall distribution 

19” to 30”……17 seasons

Under 15”…..5 seasons

Over 31”……4 seasons

1993-1994 to 2023-2024

19” to 30”……4 seasons

Under 15”……11 seasons

Over 31”……..14 seasons

 

 

 

Chris, does this mean that the differences for those south of us vs us will flatten out so for example the average snowfall differences between DC, Baltimore, Ocean City, Atlantic City and New York City won't be that much? So I could see DCA average snowfall go down to 10 inches, ACY to 12 inches and NYC to 15 inches....

PHL and NYC could have very similar snowfall averages.

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The entire snowfall distribution near the coast has dramatically shifted since the 1990s. I will just use NYC as an example but all the other coastal sites have experienced the same pattern change. So we have 60+ years of data divided into 2 climate normals periods spanning 30 years each. The mid range seasonal snowfall range has greatly diminished and been replaced by all or nothing type years. Meaning well above or well below normal snowfall. This has become an issue as the climate continues the rapid warming since the 1990s. So the risk is that we continue to see this pattern increase going forward leading to the average coastal snowfall falling to around 15” or less from the 2020s into the 2040s. 
 

1960-1961  to 1992-1993 NYC snowfall distribution 

19” to 30”……17 seasons

Under 15”…..5 seasons

Over 31”……4 seasons

1993-1994 to 2023-2024

19” to 30”……4 seasons

Under 15”……11 seasons

Over 31”……..14 seasons

 

 

 

For those time periods the average snowfall is retained for different reasons (I did mention in the past that the storms would be more intense so when it does snow like last February it is more intense).

Again by warming Indian ocean temperatures will increase phase one and two which should counteract the Indonesian water temps. 

The problem I am seeing is there seems to be a tendency to state that what we're experiencing from 2018 is a new Norm and cannot change one way or the other. It is an extremely small period of time which has seen two 20 + snowfall seasons and one above average snowfall season excluding this winter since 2018. That is not bad at all. Yes we had three abysmal Winters to even out the three Winters I mentioned. However in no way do I see what's happening as in stone and has been countered in recent years for certain months. This will continue to happen in this year shows that we can have three months in a row of below average winter temperatures. 

I just want the board to understand that we are not in some abysmal snowfall climate that started with a light switch in 2019. We are in fact entering a low snowfall period after a high snowfall time frame the same as we did after 1969. Yes we are a bit warmer and snow retention will suffer however we are still not far off from that 30-year time frame. 

I can definitely see 2020 to 2040 dropping from the 21-inch average of the 1970 through 1990 time frame two maybe 19 inches from 2020 to 2040. I can also see it rising to 23 inches due to more intense snows like last February.

Time will tell.

 

[weatherpruf]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Did you ever watch the documentary about the true life story of that crazy scientist/professor who adopted a chimpanzee and farmed him out to his female students to raise?  I can't remember the name of the documentary right now, but this guy had very questionable ethics.  He had two of his female students breastfeed the chimpanzee and he also ended up having affairs with both students (one was married and the other one was an 18 year old prodigy.)  When he dumped the 18 year old she went into a tailspin and quit his program.  But went to a different school and decades later became one of the world's most pre-eminent behavior biologists!

 

Good god the breastfeeding thing is totally nuts. You'd have to seriously be in thrall to someone to agree to that. Bottle fed is one thing, but this borders on what we in the mental health field would call a perversion.....

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol no model shows a cutter. could it get a little too close for comfort for the immediate coast, sure, but i find it highly unlikely that we see a system cut through the Apps. more likely to see suppression than a wet outcome here 

The 0z EPS included only a few members with SLP that tracked west of us. A few more that tracked close enough to mix, and the majority with an ideal track or east. None would be considered cutters. GEFS has only 1 close pass. All options are still viable at this range, but a miss east has to be considered the more likely outcome at this juncture.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

For those time periods the average snowfall is retained for different reasons (I did mention in the past that the storms would be more intense so when it does snow like last February it is more intense).

Again by warming Indian ocean temperatures will increase phase one and two which should counteract the Indonesian water temps. 

The problem I am seeing is there seems to be a tendency to state that what we're experiencing from 2018 is a new Norm and cannot change one way or the other. It is an extremely small period of time which has seen two 20 + snowfall seasons and one above average snowfall season excluding this winter since 2018. That is not bad at all. Yes we had three abysmal Winters to even out the three Winters I mentioned. However in no way do I see what's happening as in stone and has been countered in recent years for certain months. This will continue to happen in this year shows that we can have three months in a row of below average winter temperatures. 

I just want the board to understand that we are not in some abysmal snowfall climate that started with a light switch in 2019. We are in fact entering a low snowfall period after a high snowfall time frame the same as we did after 1969. Yes we are a bit warmer and snow retention will suffer however we are still not far off from that 30-year time frame. 

I can definitely see 2020 to 2040 dropping from the 21-inch average of the 1970 through 1990 time frame two maybe 19 inches from 2020 to 2040. I can also see it rising to 23 inches due to more intense snows like last February.

Time will tell.

 

I think you are correct; it's really hard to draw firm conclusions just yet; we had very little snow from about 1988-92, then here came 93 and 94....followed by 96, followed by 5 years of very little. 

[eduggs]

51 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Just for educational purposes this is not a cutter LOL. It's not an inland runner either. I wouldn't even call it a coastal hugger. This depiction, and it's only one mile depiction so it can change a million times, is of an inside the benchmark track. Those give more snow than a coastal hugger but do change to ice and rain occasionally as it is inside the benchmark. I would take this in a heartbeat as you would get a good thump to start.

The 850mb low track is more critical than the SLP. The 850mb low tracks inland along the east coast until it reaches near NYC. This is the reason eastern coastal areas briefly go to a mix or rain on that depiction.

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, North and West said:

I love your enthusiasm, but doesn’t it do that all of the time?


.

Every model has a big system 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

The 850mb low track is more critical than the SLP. The 850mb low tracks inland along the east coast until it reaches near NYC. This is the reason eastern coastal areas briefly go to a mix or rain on that depiction.

You can get a lot of snow and even jackpot with mixing.  See February 1961,  JFK changed over to a mix during the middle of the storm and still managed to get 24.1 inches of snow on 2.7 inches of liquid.

 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

You can get a lot of snow and even jackpot with mixing.  See February 1961,  JFK changed over to a mix during the middle of the storm and still managed to get 24.1 inches of snow on 2.7 inches of liquid.

 

Also March of 2017, Central Park with 7.5 inches of snow and Thunder Sleet.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Also March of 2017, Central Park with 7.5 inches of snow and Thunder Sleet.

There was also one in February 2021 if I remember correctly, the Groundhog Day storm (it lasted 3 days)..... Binghamton got 40 inches of snow but we still got 18 inches even with mixing.

 

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The problem I am seeing is there seems to be a tendency to state that what we're experiencing from 2018 is a new Norm and cannot change one way or the other.

My post is based on over 60 years worth of snowfall data. The last 6 years was a microcosm of that larger set. So given that a warming climate means less snow, the snowfall average near the coast will inevitably drop under 20” next 30 years regardless of if you include the last 6 years or not.

[FPizz]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My post is based on over 60 years worth of snowfall data. The last 6 years was a microcosm of that larger set. So given that a warming climate means less snow, the snowfall average near the coast will inevitably drop under 20” regardless of if you include the last 6 years or not.

We'll be long dead.