February 2025

[snowman19]

like I can't look at this and not get a little excited. it has every synoptic feature you're looking for

Agree with you that the blocking looks very impressive, no doubt about it. That said, it’s do or die time. We are going to have a limited window starting next week and into the following week to do something snow wise with the high latitude (-AO/-NAO) blocking we get. There is growing evidence that by the time we get to the beginning of March, all the blocking breaks down, MJO forcing goes back to the IO and Maritime Continent and the SPV strengthens substantially…

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree with you that the blocking looks very impressive, no doubt about it. That said, it’s do or die time. We are going to have a limited window starting next week and into the following week to do something snow wise with the high latitude (-AO/-NAO) blocking we get. There is growing evidence that by the time we get to the beginning of March, all the blocking breaks down, MJO forcing goes back to the IO and Maritime Continent and the SPV strengthens substantially…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here we go again with the Twitter posts. We aren't even in the favorable pattern yet. The MJO is marching into 8. We should have 2-3 weeks of a good pattern ahead.

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

like I can't look at this and not get a little excited. it has every synoptic feature you're looking for

If the SE ridging ends up being too strong then storms will still cut. GFS/Euro OP show that for the 20th system. 

Western ridging is too far west for my liking. The Arctic block has to compensate to ensure there's enough confluence in place so that system takes on coastal track. 

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the SE ridging ends up being too strong then storms will still cut. GFS/Euro OP show that for the 20th system. 

Western ridging is too far west for my liking. The Arctic block has to compensate to ensure there's enough confluence in place so that system takes on coastal track. 

Yeah, the risk around the 20th is the -AO linking up with the Southeast Ridge again. This would result in the low hugging the coast. So the inland regions could really cash in while the coast gets another mixed precipitation event. Still too early to be sure since it’s outside the model reliable range.

Just about every other February -AO in the -4 to -5 range had a KU within about a week or so of the occurrence. Like in February 2021, 2010, 1978, and 1969. So it would be very disappointing if we get 3 -AO link ups with the Southeast Ridge.

I posted the other day how this has become a frequent occurrence in the 2020s. The last -4 AO link up was only a little over 2 years ago in December 2022. Prior to that we had one near -4 in December 2012. Then before that it was in January 1998. So this has become a much more frequent occurrence. Hopefully, we can find a way to buck the trend around the 20th to avoid the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream pattern we have been in since 18-19. 
 

2 Southeast Ridge link ups in near term

 

Third one possible around the 20th

 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the SE ridging ends up being too strong then storms will still cut. GFS/Euro OP show that for the 20th system. 

Western ridging is too far west for my liking. The Arctic block has to compensate to ensure there's enough confluence in place so that system takes on coastal track. 

They don't show the storm cutting at all.

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Remember that NYC doesn’t always jackpot when we have an active KU BM storm track regime. Sometimes the coastal storm tracks are inside the BM like December 2020 favoring the interior like BGM. Other times coastal storm tracks are just wide of the BM favoring Suffolk County like in January 2022. And other times we get more of a goldilocks track like in January 2016 with the jackpot in the middle near NYC. So the common denominator for all NESIS snowstorms is generally someone around the region getting a 10”+ snowfall max. 

This type of major coastal snowstorm track has become a prerequisite for NYC to reach within a few inches of the longer term mean in the 24” to 25” range. All the seasons since 93-94 with near to above this range featured KU NESIS snowstorms. From the 1960s to the 1980s NYC could get to within a few inches of the 24-25” snowfall range with numerous smaller to moderate events and no major KUs. But obviously the much higher years such as 77-78 featured major KU events. So there were multiple ways to get close to the 24-25” range. 

 

 

 

Maybe we could come up with a more statistically objective metric.  How about this-- instead of *KU BENCHMARK* track, let's calculate the average snowfall by decade when the largest single snowfall in NYC is 1) 10.0 inches or more 2) 8.0 inches or more 3) 6.0 inches or more 4) 4.0 inches or more 5) less than 4.0 inches

 

 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the risk around the 20th is the -AO linking up with the Southeast Ridge again. This would result in the low hugging the coast. So the inland regions could really cash in while the coast gets another mixed precipitation event. Still too early to be sure since it’s outside the model reliable range.

Just about every other February -AO in the -4 to -5 range had a KU within about a week or so of the occurrence. Like in February 2021, 2010, 1978, and 1969. So it would be very disappointing if we get 3 -AO link ups with the Southeast Ridge.

I posted the other day how this has become a frequent occurrence in the 2020s. The last -4 AO link up was only a little over 2 years ago in December 2022. Prior to that we had one near -4 in December 2012. Then before that it was in January 1998. So this has become a much more frequent occurrence. Hopefully, we can find a way to buck the trend around the 20th to avoid the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream pattern we have been in since 18-19. 
 

2 Southeast Ridge link ups in near term

 

Third one possible around the 20th

 

 

 

 

That doesn't look bad at all . We will be entering a favorable pattern soon with the NAO and AO dropping and the MJO into 8.  This looks good. 

The pattern should be favorable for at least 2 -3 weeks. Every storm this winter that was modeled a cutter have been weaker when it gets closer. The flow has been too fast.

Now that might change soon with the PNA rising.

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

like I can't look at this and not get a little excited. it has every synoptic feature you're looking for

Very nice look with strong blocking. Beat chance this winter.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the block for Feb 2024 was tenuous and it never really formed. late Feb 2023 was in March, so it could have delivered, but it was too warm. and I don't recall March 2022

this time, the block is going to form and retrograde in an ideal location. just need to iron out the details

February 2024 was pretty good, a foot of snow in one week, can't complain.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

December 2022 had -PNA issues and Feb 2024 never really got going with the block never forming. this is inside of D10 so it's no longer pure fantasy and the PNA region is more favorable

People downplay February 2024 but we had a 4 incher and a 6 incher in the same week.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

 

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe we could come up with a more statistically objective metric.  How about this-- instead of *KU BENCHMARK* track, let's calculate the average snowfall by decade when the largest single snowfall in NYC is 1) 10.0 inches or more 2) 8.0 inches or more 3) 6.0 inches or more 4) 4.0 inches or more 5) less than 4.0 inches

 

 

The statistically objective metric is that NYC hasn’t had an average to above average snowfall season in over 30 years without a major coastal snowfall event ranking somewhere on the NESIS KU BM track. Many of these storms had 10”+ and 20”+ amounts somewhere in the OKX forecast zones. There were several winters during the 30 years from the 60s to 90s within around 3” of the long term 24” to 25” range that didn’t have such heavy snowstorms. So in the colder era we were able to break even just on small to moderate events. These days we need major to historic snowstorms to achieve this outcome. So we have fewer ways to do it than in the old days. Since there were several years with and without KUs which go there. 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

The most memorable storm that winter closer to NYC was the 12-30 event which broke the slump we were in since after the 95-96 winter.

Data for December 30, 2000 through December 30, 2000
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	16.8
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	14.0
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	13.9
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	13.6
CT	DANBURY	COOP	13.4
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	13.3
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	13.0
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	12.8
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	12.7
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	12.0
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	10.3
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	10.0

 

Data for January 20, 2001 through January 21, 2001
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	WEST POINT	COOP	7.5
NY	GARDNERVILLE	COOP	7.3
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	7.0
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	7.0
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	6.7
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	6.5
NY	SEA CLIFF	COOP	6.5
CT	DANBURY	COOP	6.3
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	6.0
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	6.0
NJ	GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	6.0
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	6.0
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	6.0
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	6.0
CT	JEWETT CITY	COOP	6.0

 

Data for February 22, 2001 through February 23, 2001
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	6.5
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	6.2
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	6.0
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	6.0
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	6.0
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	5.8
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	5.7

 

Data for March 5, 2001 through March 6, 2001
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	14.5
CT	DANBURY	COOP	14.3
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	13.5
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	13.3
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	13.0
CT	JEWETT CITY	COOP	10.0
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	9.0
CT	ANSONIA 1 NW	COOP	9.0
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	8.5
CT	GROTON	COOP	7.5
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	7.0
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	6.5
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	6.2
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	6.1
NJ	GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	6.0
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	6.0

This was the only KU event from that winter for us KU event = at least one of the 4 major reporting stations near the city got 10.0 inches

 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This was the only KU event from that winter for us KU event = at least one of the 4 major reporting stations near the city got 10.0 inches

 

Jan 21, 2001 was a cat 1 KU event due to how extensive the 6-9” area was.

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, North and West said:

I like that it’s been cold. I miss the snow, though not shoveling.

As for complaining, it’s easy, right? People fall into it because it’s comfortable.


.

One thing this winter made me realize is you don't need a certain number of *inches* of snow to get a winter feel.  Remember folks, the South Pole station in Antarctica gets less than 1 inch of snow a year and it is one of the most wintry places on the planet!

So instead of measuring winters by snowfall inches, we should measure it by duration of snowcover and average temperatures.  Whether it's 10 inches of snow or 50 inches of snow matters much less than 1) having many days below freezing 2) the lack of a thaw-- temperatures above 50 degrees 3) duration of snow cover 4) number of snowfall events.  The actual amount of snowfall does not really matter.

It's felt like a long winter because it has been.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the risk around the 20th is the -AO linking up with the Southeast Ridge again. This would result in the low hugging the coast. So the inland regions could really cash in while the coast gets another mixed precipitation event. Still too early to be sure since it’s outside the model reliable range.

Just about every other February -AO in the -4 to -5 range had a KU within about a week or so of the occurrence. Like in February 2021, 2010, 1978, and 1969. So it would be very disappointing if we get 3 -AO link ups with the Southeast Ridge.

I posted the other day how this has become a frequent occurrence in the 2020s. The last -4 AO link up was only a little over 2 years ago in December 2022. Prior to that we had one near -4 in December 2012. Then before that it was in January 1998. So this has become a much more frequent occurrence. Hopefully, we can find a way to buck the trend around the 20th to avoid the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream pattern we have been in since 18-19. 
 

2 Southeast Ridge link ups in near term

 

Third one possible around the 20th

 

 

 

 

To be fair, if inland areas had a 15-20 inch snowstorm and coastal areas had a 5-10 inch mixed bag, that would still be a KU event.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

If the SE ridging ends up being too strong then storms will still cut. GFS/Euro OP show that for the 20th system. 

Western ridging is too far west for my liking. The Arctic block has to compensate to ensure there's enough confluence in place so that system takes on coastal track. 

What model shows a cutter for the 20? I looked at the Canadian the GFS in the euro and not one of them is even close to a cutter. 

Remember a cutter goes to the Great lakes.

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

To be fair, if inland areas had a 15-20 inch snowstorm and coastal areas had a 5-10 inch mixed bag, that would still be a KU event.

 

Exactly since it’s the storm track which is necessary to getting NYC close to 25”. 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

The statistically objective metric is that NYC hasn’t had an average to above average snowfall season in over 30 years without a major coastal snowfall event ranking somewhere on the NESIS KU BM track. Many of these storms had 10”+ and 20”+ amounts somewhere in the OKX forecast zones. There were several winters during the 30 years from the 60s to 90s within around 3” of the long term 24” to 25” range that didn’t have such heavy snowstorms. So in the colder era we were able to break even just on small to moderate events. These days we need major to historic snowstorms to achieve this outcome. So we have fewer ways to do it than in the old days. Since there were several years with and without KUs which go there. 

So if we just focus on 10.0 inch snow events at Central Park, what's the average snowfall in a season that has them vs one that doesn't have them (if we go by decade.)

 

[brooklynwx99]

lol no model shows a cutter. could it get a little too close for comfort for the immediate coast, sure, but i find it highly unlikely that we see a system cut through the Apps. more likely to see suppression than a wet outcome here 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

What model shows a cutter for the 20? I looked at the Canadian the GFS in the euro and not one of them is even close to a cutter. 

Remember a cutter goes to the Great lakes.

maybe he means coastal hugger or inland runner

[EastonSN+]

I don't know to me what I've experienced the past 7 years is exactly what I experienced back in the 80s and 90s, and apparently the '70s were the same too. Yes it was a little colder but the same the storm tracks were exactly the same. Always cutter hugger suppressed over and over again. 

Whether or not it has to do with the southeast ridge linking up to the AO more often than that time frame, the results are the same.

I don't want to upset the board and say that we're in a middle of a 30-year bad period for snowfall like that one was, however I was actually hopeful that the warmer temperatures would help eliminate the suppressed track and move everything a bit north (and more moisture-laden) but obviously that's not the case as DC, Ocean City Maryland, New Orleans, Kansas City, Tennessee are all doing fine while we endure suppression yet again. 

A positive would be that although temperatures are a little warmer than that time frame, we are a long long ways away from removing snow from our environment for obvious reasons. 

We will have a 1995-96 type winter again, a 2002 2003 again and so on and so on. It's just we're in a low snowfall period however where a lot of areas were losing out on snowfall during our time frame from 2000 to 2018 they are now reaping the benefits that are expense. Sharing the wealth LOL.

 

[EastonSN+]

I do find the southeast ridge AO connection interesting, and Don's statistics showed it happened twice in the 30-year period while I already happened three times in the recent times. So there seems to be an uptick statistically. 

That being said I do not believe it is the southeast ridge in and of itself flexing otherwise we would not have suppressed tracks this often or Gulf Coast snow. I believe the southeast ridge is getting pumped up by more intense storms, which would make more sense as it would explain why we are storms don't fly north because of a pumping Southeast ridge, rather intensifying storm just pulls the line up. Obviously this would occur when there's an RNA. 

Another Factor is just looking at the statistical value of blocking does not tell the whole story. One has to look at where the blocking develops in addition to the strength.

Remember this bad period only started in 2018/2019. A tiny snapshot in the overall picture.

 

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol no model shows a cutter. could it get a little too close for comfort for the immediate coast, sure, but i find it highly unlikely that we see a system cut through the Apps. more likely to see suppression than a wet outcome here 

Mjo in 8 argues for a trough in the east.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Agree with you that the blocking looks very impressive, no doubt about it. That said, it’s do or die time. We are going to have a limited window starting next week and into the following week to do something snow wise with the high latitude (-AO/-NAO) blocking we get. There is growing evidence that by the time we get to the beginning of March, all the blocking breaks down, MJO forcing goes back to the IO and Maritime Continent and the SPV strengthens substantially…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I mean it can't last forever right. Looking at the CFS weeklies it aligns with the mjo progression through phases 1 and 2 which are colder than average. Then around mid March reward which is good for spring. 

 

[MJO812]

Some places in central to south NJ will have over 20 inches after tonight's wave.

 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I don't know to me what I've experienced the past 7 years is exactly what I experienced back in the 80s and 90s, and apparently the '70s were the same too. Yes it was a little colder but the same the storm tracks were exactly the same. Always cutter hugger suppressed over and over again. 

The difference back in that era was that we didn’t have the persistent have cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks like since 18-19. We would get clippers dropping south of us for snow. Plus we often get coastal tracks near the BM which weren’t KU events but more moderate events. Then there were the KU years sprinkled in but not of the 2010 to 2018 frequency and magnitude. So we had more options for NYC to get to within the 19” to 29” range which was very common. These days we need a major snowstorm or multiple ones for NYC to approach the 24” to 25” range. So there was more variety to get the job done instead of having to rely exclusively on KU NESIS events since the 1990s.

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol no model shows a cutter. could it get a little too close for comfort for the immediate coast, sure, but i find it highly unlikely that we see a system cut through the Apps. more likely to see suppression than a wet outcome here 

Tend to agree.   We have not had a big cutter all season so have to factor in the seasonal trend here...

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Here we go again with the Twitter posts. We aren't even in the favorable pattern yet. The MJO is marching into 8. We should have 2-3 weeks of a good pattern ahead.

Lucy with the football.....

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The difference back in that era was that we didn’t have the persistent have cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks like since 18-19. We would get clippers dropping south of us for snow. Plus we often get coastal tracks near the BM which weren’t KU events but more moderate events. Then there were the KU years sprinkled in but not of the 2010 to 2018 frequency and magnitude. So we had more options for NYC to get to within the 19” to 29” range which was very common. These days we need a major snowstorm or multiple ones for NYC to approach the 24” to 25” range. So there was more variety to get the job done instead of having to rely exclusively on KU NESIS events since the 1990s.

It was very rare not to have at least one 4" all snow snowstorm.  That was my barometer of a decent winter back then, just get one 4" all snow snowstorm and I was fine with it.  It's why I consider last winter a decent one, we had a 4 incher and a 6 incher in the same week.  I dont care about seasonal snowfall totals as much, if we get at least one or two moderate all snow events, it's a good winter.

 

 

[lee59]

Would be nice to see a good Nor'easter. Even if I get a mix