February 2025

[kat5hurricane]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Asking for a friend @brooklynwx99

The city just had 3-5" after an inch or two this past Sunday so what are you boasting about?

[CentralNJSnowman]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this time, the block is going to form and retrograde in an ideal location. just need to iron out the details

I'm generally a big fan of your posts, but this sentence appears to represent a bit of a blind spot.  We thought things were going to be idea in those other instances as well.  IF things develop as currently forecasted, then the pattern may be ideal...but we've seen over and over that things often don't develop as forecasted.  Until we're in relatively short range, it just doesn't seem as though the models can reliably forecast the pattern, any more than they can reliably forecast individual storms at long range.

 

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, CentralNJSnowman said:

I'm generally a big fan of your posts, but this sentence appears to represent a bit of a blind spot.  We thought things were going to be idea in those other instances as well.  IF things develop as currently forecasted, then the pattern may be ideal...but we've seen over and over that things often don't develop as forecasted.  Until we're in relatively short range, it just doesn't seem as though the models can reliably forecast the pattern, any more than they can reliably forecast individual storms at long range.

 

That's the problem with taking every pattern depiction at face value. We've seen ad nauseum how many "great looking" patterns since winter 2022. They've scantly developed and when they have, there's so many failure modes that most of the storms either go to the south or the east. The rest of them are like SWFEs or cutters. I can tell you right now, it won't pan out the way as depicted.  We would've had a decent snow so far if we were meant to this winter. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The 1/19/2001 event was a wide swath of 4 - 6" of snow.  It covered a lot of terrain, but few areas got more than advisory level snows.

 

The most memorable storm that winter closer to NYC was the 12-30 event which broke the slump we were in since after the 95-96 winter.

Data for December 30, 2000 through December 30, 2000
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	16.8
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	14.0
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	13.9
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	13.6
CT	DANBURY	COOP	13.4
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	13.3
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	13.0
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	12.8
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	12.7
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	12.0
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	10.3
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	10.0

 

Data for January 20, 2001 through January 21, 2001
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	WEST POINT	COOP	7.5
NY	GARDNERVILLE	COOP	7.3
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	7.0
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	7.0
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	6.7
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	6.5
NY	SEA CLIFF	COOP	6.5
CT	DANBURY	COOP	6.3
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	6.0
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	6.0
NJ	GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	6.0
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	6.0
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	6.0
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	6.0
CT	JEWETT CITY	COOP	6.0

 

Data for February 22, 2001 through February 23, 2001
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	6.5
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	6.2
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	6.0
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	6.0
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	6.0
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	5.8
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	5.7

 

Data for March 5, 2001 through March 6, 2001
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	14.5
CT	DANBURY	COOP	14.3
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	13.5
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	13.3
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	13.0
CT	JEWETT CITY	COOP	10.0
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	9.0
CT	ANSONIA 1 NW	COOP	9.0
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	8.5
CT	GROTON	COOP	7.5
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	7.0
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	6.5
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	6.2
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	6.1
NJ	GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	6.0
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	6.0

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The most memorable storm that winter closer to NYC was the 12-30 event which broke the slump we were in since after the 95-96 winter.

Data for December 30, 2000 through December 30, 2000
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	16.8
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	14.0
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	13.9
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	13.6
CT	DANBURY	COOP	13.4
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	13.3
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	13.0
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	12.8
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	12.7
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	12.0
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	10.3
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	10.0

 

Data for January 20, 2001 through January 21, 2001
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	WEST POINT	COOP	7.5
NY	GARDNERVILLE	COOP	7.3
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	7.0
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	7.0
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	6.7
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	6.5
NY	SEA CLIFF	COOP	6.5
CT	DANBURY	COOP	6.3
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	6.0
NJ	ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG	COOP	6.0
NJ	GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	6.0
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	6.0
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	6.0
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	6.0
CT	JEWETT CITY	COOP	6.0

 

Data for February 22, 2001 through February 23, 2001
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	6.5
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	6.2
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	6.0
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	6.0
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	6.0
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	5.8
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	5.7

 

Data for March 5, 2001 through March 6, 2001
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	14.5
CT	DANBURY	COOP	14.3
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	13.5
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	13.3
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	13.0
CT	JEWETT CITY	COOP	10.0
NY	WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	9.0
CT	ANSONIA 1 NW	COOP	9.0
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	8.5
CT	GROTON	COOP	7.5
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	7.0
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	6.5
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	6.2
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	6.1
NJ	GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	6.0
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	6.0

There's no way Newark had 6 inches in March 2001; I didn't crack half an inch and I'm not that far from Newark. 

[MJO812]

Gfs is flatter for next weekend

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

There's no way Newark had 6 inches in March 2001; I didn't crack half an inch and I'm not that far from Newark. 

4 to 4.5 fell in Metuchen and New Brunswick 

 

MIDDLESEX

STATION	SNOWFALL	TOB
Metuchen	4.2	Storm
New Brunswick	4.5	Storm

 

[donsutherland1]

It will be increasingly cloudy tomorrow. Light snow will likely overspread the New York City area late tomorrow afternoon or during the evening hours.

A general 1"-3" snowfall is likely in New York City and nearby suburbs by the time the snow ends on Wednesday. The highest amounts will be south of the City. Amounts will rapidly fall off in the Hudson Valley. Washington, DC could see its second 6" or above snowstorm this winter for the first time since Winter 2013-2014.

Another system could follow closely behind. This system will likely bring another light snowfall followed by a changeover to sleet and then rain.

No exceptional warmth or cold is likely through at least February 14th. A generally colder outcome appears more likely than not during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +16.86 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.910 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.7° (3.2° below normal).

 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

There's no way Newark had 6 inches in March 2001; I didn't crack half an inch and I'm not that far from Newark. 

It’s in the official monthly climate report for March 2001.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-B4467854-7C53-42F0-88D4-3798355E3BA8.pdf

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

4 to 4.5 fell in Metuchen and New Brunswick 

 

MIDDLESEX

STATION	SNOWFALL	TOB
Metuchen	4.2	Storm
New Brunswick	4.5	Storm

 

 

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s in the official monthly climate report for March 2001.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-B4467854-7C53-42F0-88D4-3798355E3BA8.pdf

 

[CentralNJSnowman]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s in the official monthly climate report for March 2001.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/orders/IPS/IPS-B4467854-7C53-42F0-88D4-3798355E3BA8.pdf

I'm really skeptical of that one also...I was by the river in Jersey City, and we got 1/2" of slop as things were winding down.  Everything else was rain.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

I'm really skeptical of that one also...I was by the river in Jersey City, and we got 1/2" of slop as things were winding down.  Everything else was rain.

Snowfall can vary quite a bit over short distances.

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2001/05-Mar-01.html

 

[North and West]

It's been a good winter, although I guess that depends on location, but you wouldn't know it based on the constant complaining around here. 

I like that it’s been cold. I miss the snow, though not shoveling.

As for complaining, it’s easy, right? People fall into it because it’s comfortable.


.

[steve392]

58 minutes ago, North and West said:

I like that it’s been cold. I miss the snow, though not shoveling.

As for complaining, it’s easy, right? People fall into it because it’s comfortable.


.

Been a great winter. Longest the lake by me has been frozen over for in years. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Snowfall can vary quite a bit over short distances.

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2001/05-Mar-01.html

 

The map is wrong. Middlesex county did not receive 5 inches. There was hardly an inch, and it was light sleet. Perhaps they mean 3-5 inches FELL, but it did not accumulate. Period. I was there. I saw it. Prepared for two days waiting for it, and lost two days of work ( school system ) waiting for it. In fact it did not snow at all; what fell was sleet.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

 

I think that's what may have FALLEN over several days, but did not accumulate; I once read they count what falls as well. How they do this, I'm not sure.

[Allsnow]

18 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I think that's what may have FALLEN over several days, but did not accumulate; I once read they count what falls as well. How they do this, I'm not sure.

I remember 3-4 inches in the Woodbridge area that didn’t accumulate on the roads 

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I remember 3-4 inches in the Woodbridge area that didn’t accumulate on the roads 

It's the only explanation I can think of.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

It's the only explanation I can think of.

It fell over 3 days with melting in between. Alot of places never had that much on the ground

[Maestrobjwa]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

It could be the rapid SST warming near Japan and acceleration of the Pacific Jet leading to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream tracks since 18-19.

 

 

Hey Bluewave--I'm a visitor to thus forum, but, as someone in Baltimore who's been fringed by southern sliders since 2018-19 (eith Jan 2019 being the first time I remember that starting) your theory caught my attention. Areas in MD JUST south of me have done better in those kind of slightly suppressed systems, I've been wondering if this has just been dumb luck or whether something had actually changed!

 

So how do you think this would be a cause of that rather unusual theme (as ordinarily the northern half of the MA sub does better than the souther half).

[Maestrobjwa]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

It could be the rapid SST warming near Japan and acceleration of the Pacific Jet leading to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream tracks since 18-19.

 

 

Hey Bluewave--I'm a visitor to thus forum, but, as someone in Baltimore who's been fringed by southern sliders since 2018-19 (eith Jan 2019 being the first time I remember that starting) your theory caught my attention. Areas in MD JUST south of me have done better in those kind of slightly suppressed systems, I've been wondering if this has just been dumb luck or whether something had actually changed!

So how do you think this would be a cause of that rather unusual theme (as ordinarily the northern half of the MA sub does better than the southern half).

[Krs4Lfe]

I think the problem we will continue to see is that weather models latch onto changes in atmospheric patterns but tend to overdo them. What initially appears to be a somewhat favorable pattern for colder and snowy weather is exaggerated by the models. As time approaches, the models adjust and realize it’s just a slight change in the atmosphere. This leads to moderation in their depiction, which often results in the perception that all the models are failing. As the forecast lead time shortens, the depicted weather pattern ends up being much less significant than originally predicted.

Since March 2022, we’ve often discussed how patterns look favorable, even though they haven’t produced anything substantial in our area. The only notable event was a blizzard in New England in 2022, along with several snowstorms for southern regions. Meanwhile, much of the upper Mid-Atlantic has missed out, largely due to either coastal huggers or inland cutters. These storms have been infrequent, and the past two winters were unusually warm.

This winter was substantially colder by comparison, which resulted in enough suppression to bring heavy snow to the Deep South but very little to our region. Now that temperatures have moderated slightly, we’re seeing light snow events. However, the pattern still doesn’t favor anything significant. If a major storm were likely, it probably would have already materialized or been clearly depicted by the models by now.

After the light snow expected tomorrow night, we may have another shot at snow Wednesday night before rain washes it away, similar to last week. After that, it appears we will either experience cutters—like the one expected this weekend—or suppression as colder weather returns. As February transitions into March, with average temperatures climbing, we will need a below-average temperature pattern to get more than a marginal snow event.

Over the past six years, we’ve seen a tenuous setup where conditions have rarely struck the proper balance between suppression and the SER. As a result, storms often track too far south or are suppressed altogether, yielding little meaningful snow in our area. I don’t see this changing for the remainder of the season.

After the small snow events over the next few days, I think we’re done for a while unless a bigger storm develops in about 10 days. Even then, it may likely become more of an inland event. Nature seems to have a long memory, and I doubt incremental changes in our favor will fix the current pattern until the Pacific flow slows down.

This is evident in the fact that much of the nation, including last winter and this year, has seen a significant lack of snowfall. The "bowling ball" type storms that typically traverse the country have been almost nonexistent due to the increased Pacific flow. Moving forward, any large snowstorm that models depict more than five days in advance should be viewed with skepticism—it’s likely just model noise attempting to signal a slightly more conducive pattern for snow, which, based on recent years, probably won’t come to fruition.

[Nibor]

 

[MJO812]

Gfs going to show a bomb next week

[rgwp96]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs going to show a bomb next week

The famous 10 day storm 

[MJO812]

Just now, rgwp96 said:

The famous 10 day storm 

All the models show it so it might not be fantasy

 

[Franklin0529]

Check back next Monday to see if it's still there 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, rgwp96 said:

The famous 10 day storm 

I actually think the weekend has potential. I think we can nab 1-2" tomorrow and get something next weekend. 

[brooklynwx99]

10 hours ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

I'm generally a big fan of your posts, but this sentence appears to represent a bit of a blind spot.  We thought things were going to be idea in those other instances as well.  IF things develop as currently forecasted, then the pattern may be ideal...but we've seen over and over that things often don't develop as forecasted.  Until we're in relatively short range, it just doesn't seem as though the models can reliably forecast the pattern, any more than they can reliably forecast individual storms at long range.

 

all we can use is the data we have right now. if things change, we can change our view on the pattern. right now, things look really good... we'll see what happens over the next few days. it's worth it to temper expectations but also acknowledge that there is heightened potential for a significant to even major storm around the 20th 

[brooklynwx99]

like I can't look at this and not get a little excited. it has every synoptic feature you're looking for