February 2025

[Stormlover74]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

The 1/19/2001 event was a wide swath of 4 - 6" of snow.  It covered a lot of terrain, but few areas got more than advisory level snows.

 

Yeah I was surprised to see that one make the list. The 2 February events were better out here

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I was surprised to see that one make the list. The 2 February events were better out here

The warm nose was pretty stubborn all night in the metro in that one.  I think LGA saw way more snow than the S shore of LI did.  I drove later that day from LI to Florida (NY, not Florida Florida) and there like 10 inches up there

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

the entire arctic is about to be purple and we're tracking a scraper followed by a cutter

the patient is dying, but we still need to treat that paper cut and bruised knee.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

the ocean circulation naturally piles up warm water in the west pac and the climate is warming 

so the warming climate is enhancing the la nina base state

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Multiple KUs that winter with one on 12-30 and another 1-19.

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis

March 2001 would have made that season historic

[Stormlover74]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The warm nose was pretty stubborn all night in the metro in that one.  I think LGA saw way more snow than the S shore of LI did.  I drove later that day from LI to Florida (NY, not Florida Florida) and there like 10 inches up there

I just remember a forecast of 6 to 10 but it moved so fast I only got 4.5. I think there was some snow or mixed precip early in the day too before the main show at night

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so the warming climate is enhancing the la nina base state

The water should pile up in the Western Indian Ocean too if we're talking circulation which would enhance phases 1 and 2 of the mjo which are colder for us. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The case is getting stretched a bit when a portion of the requirement for NYC to have a normal snowfall season shifts to the need for eastern LI (or part of NJ) to have a KU.  Maybe if the sample size was several hundred years, but there's plenty of room for the past few decades to be just coincidence.  I'm not questioning the data used, but I'm also not convinced that the hypothesis will test out.

Remember that NYC doesn’t always jackpot when we have an active KU BM storm track regime. Sometimes the coastal storm tracks are inside the BM like December 2020 favoring the interior like BGM. Other times coastal storm tracks are just wide of the BM favoring Suffolk County like in January 2022. And other times we get more of a goldilocks track like in January 2016 with the jackpot in the middle near NYC. So the common denominator for all NESIS snowstorms is generally someone around the region getting a 10”+ snowfall max. 

This type of major coastal snowstorm track has become a prerequisite for NYC to reach within a few inches of the longer term mean in the 24” to 25” range. All the seasons since 93-94 with near to above this range featured KU NESIS snowstorms. From the 1960s to the 1980s NYC could get to within a few inches of the 24-25” snowfall range with numerous smaller to moderate events and no major KUs. But obviously the much higher years such as 77-78 featured major KU events. So there were multiple ways to get close to the 24-25” range. 

 

 

 

[cleetussnow]

Weekend cut on the euro.  And that is a cut no yeahbuts

[brooklynwx99]

if this isn't anything but a highly favorable setup on the EPS then some of you are being a bit dishonest. everything is in the right spot with the decaying block over central Canada linking up with the developing +PNA

[brooklynwx99]

the 20th was always the most favorable window as the block fully matured, by the way

[bluewave]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

the 20th was always the most favorable window as the block fully matured, by the way

That may be our best shot this winter so far of getting a decent coastal track but we would want to see it within 120 hrs.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That may be our best shot this winter so far of getting a decent coastal track but we would want to see it within 120 hrs.

agreed. want to get into that D5-6 timeframe but for now, it seems as though a lot is aligning. hopefully we can pull together a thump for the NW posters with the 15-16th. unfortunate to see the confluence weaken in the worst spot

[rgwp96]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if this isn't anything but a highly favorable setup on the EPS then some of you are being a bit dishonest. everything is in the right spot with the decaying block over central Canada linking up with the developing +PNA

It always looks good 10’days out though

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, rgwp96 said:

It always looks good 10’days out though

not like this, though. not sure the last time we had a signal like that show up on all ensembles. maybe Feb 2021

[eduggs]

32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if this isn't anything but a highly favorable setup on the EPS then some of you are being a bit dishonest. everything is in the right spot with the decaying block over central Canada linking up with the developing +PNA

We'll see how it looks this weekend. Fingers crossed.

[rgwp96]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not like this, though. not sure the last time we had a signal like that show up on all ensembles. maybe Feb 2021

Hope it pans out for something decent 

[cleetussnow]

42 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the 20th was always the most favorable window as the block fully matured, by the way

I can't kick the can that far so not entertaining the offer. 

It's almost time to grade this winter - which isn't really a terrible winter TBH - I've had snow cover for longer than any of the last 5 or 6 winters already - and it's certainly cold like winter should be.  I'd hand out a B- without hesitation, maybe even a straight B, despite upcoming cutters.

*if we got a legit 6" storm in here, B/B+ all day long.  It would take a KU to get anything higher and the window for that closes a little more each day.  

[eduggs]

[Krs4Lfe]

40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not like this, though. not sure the last time we had a signal like that show up on all ensembles. maybe Feb 2021

I heard that same thing being said in March 2022, late Feb 2023, and Feb 2024. 

[The 4 Seasons]

I'll likely being doing an update to the season-to-date snowfall map so if anyone has an accurate total and wants to be included let me know, thanks. (please include your location)

 

[brooklynwx99]

24 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I heard that same thing being said in March 2022, late Feb 2023, and Feb 2024. 

the block for Feb 2024 was tenuous and it never really formed. late Feb 2023 was in March, so it could have delivered, but it was too warm. and I don't recall March 2022

this time, the block is going to form and retrograde in an ideal location. just need to iron out the details

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not like this, though. not sure the last time we had a signal like that show up on all ensembles. maybe Feb 2021

December, 2022. February, 2024

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, snowman19 said:

December, 2022. February, 2024

December 2022 had -PNA issues and Feb 2024 never really got going with the block never forming. this is inside of D10 so it's no longer pure fantasy and the PNA region is more favorable

[IrishRob17]

29 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I'll likely being doing an update to the season-to-date snowfall map so if anyone has an accurate total and wants to be included let me know, thanks. (please include your location)

 

Thomas Bull Park, along NYS 416 between Campbell Hall and Montgomery NY, 27.4" for the season.

[jm1220]

33 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I'll likely being doing an update to the season-to-date snowfall map so if anyone has an accurate total and wants to be included let me know, thanks. (please include your location)

 

15" in Huntington Station.

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the block for Feb 2024 was tenuous and it never really formed. late Feb 2023 was in March, so it could have delivered, but it was too warm. and I don't recall March 2022

this time, the block is going to form and retrograde in an ideal location. just need to iron out the details

Everything always looks clear in foresight. And then in hindsight we can see what went wrong: block in wrong location, too warm, southeast ridge too strong, western ridge not amplified enough etc.

If only we could see exactly how things would evolve over the next 10 days. Then we would know exactly when to get excited.

[donsutherland1]

On 2/2/2025 at 8:06 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The week ahead:

Final outcomes:

[kat5hurricane]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I'm actually enjoying these little snowfalls and cold. We haven't had a cold winter in years.

It's been a good winter, although I guess that depends on location, but you wouldn't know it based on the constant complaining around here. 

[FPizz]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Everything always looks clear in foresight. And then in hindsight we can see what went wrong: block in wrong location, too warm, southeast ridge too strong, western ridge not amplified enough etc.

If only we could see exactly how things would evolve over the next 10 days. Then we would know exactly when to get excited.

I think people sometime don't remember things correctly.  Some of the "good" patterns people bring up from past years were only "modeled" good patterns and never actually moved up to hour zero to be actually real.