February 2025

[winterwx21]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Those were two good snow events here, a 4.5 incher and a 6 incher in the same week!  

We got lucky with over a foot of snow between those 2 snow events here during that week last February. Just goes to show that you never know. The pattern last February wasn't very good yet we got plenty of snow. I know it isn't looking great right now, but there's no way I'm giving up on winter on January 28th. 

It hasn't been bad to this point either with 10 inches of snow here. We just had snow on the ground for a week. Obviously we will be falling well below average in snowfall though if we don't see much in the next few weeks. Hopefully we'll see a good storm or two in February. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

We got lucky with over a foot of snow between those 2 snow events during that week here last February. Just goes to show that you never know. The pattern last February wasn't very good yet we got plenty of snow. I know it isn't looking great right now, but there's no way I'm giving up on winter on January 28th. 

It hasn't been bad to this point either with 10 inches of snow here. We just had snow on the ground for a week. Obviously we will be falling well below average in snowfall though if we don't see much in the next few weeks. Hopefully we'll see a good storm or two in February. 

Right those events came before what was supposed to be the "buckle up" period from late February thru mid March. 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

We got lucky with over a foot of snow between those 2 snow events here during that week last February. Just goes to show that you never know. The pattern last February wasn't very good yet we got plenty of snow. I know it isn't looking great right now, but there's no way I'm giving up on winter on January 28th. 

It hasn't been bad to this point either with 10 inches of snow here. We just had snow on the ground for a week. Obviously we will be falling well below average in snowfall though if we don't see much in the next few weeks. Hopefully we'll see a good storm or two in February. 

1000%. 

It's astounding that's some members announce the end of winter as if they could predict the future. I do not mind if a red tagger which state it, as they would provide statistics to prove such a claim. Also why you do not see it from them. 

It's best to ignore posters who State such a claim and are not red taggers. Likely it's due to frustration or just trying to get a laugh out of the audience. 

Even Blue Wave, who has been stating that we are about to encounter a Southeast ridge, has in no way stated winter is over and we cannot get more snowfall. Sometimes people interpret it that way, IE warmer can't snow, however Blue Wave is just stating the next h5 setup that we will endure.

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Right those events came before what was supposed to be the "buckle up" period from late February thru mid March. 

usually when the "buckle up" period doesn't show up by mid to Late Jan it's not going to.   Last year was a good exercise in that regard

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

usually when the "buckle up" period doesn't show up by mid to Late Jan it's not going to.   Last year was a good exercise in that regard

Unless a red tagger States buckle up, I would ignore posters that state that. 

A red tagger would provide statistics and evidence as well as analogues to suggest that we are entering a favorable period, however disclaim that such a scenario does not guarantee snowfall. 

If a poster just writes buckle up it looks good, and a reader falls for it, it's on that reader for believing such a claim without evidence.

[donsutherland1]

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks Don, the ATL statistics are astounding.

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Unless a red tagger States buckle up, I would ignore posters that state that. 

A red tagger would provide statistics and evidence as well as analogues to suggest that we are entering a favorable period, however disclaim that such a scenario does not guarantee snowfall. 

If a poster just writes buckle up it looks good, and a reader falls for it, it's on that reader for believing such a claim without evidence.

It is a red tagger that uses buckle up

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

It is a red tagger that uses buckle up

Seriously? Which one?

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Seriously? Which one?

Well he no longer posts here but we've shared his tweets

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

1000%. 

It's astounding that's some members announce the end of winter as if they could predict the future. I do not mind if a red tagger which state it, as they would provide statistics to prove such a claim. Also why you do not see it from them. 

It's best to ignore posters who State such a claim and are not red taggers. Likely it's due to frustration or just trying to get a laugh out of the audience. 

Even Blue Wave, who has been stating that we are about to encounter a Southeast ridge, has in no way stated winter is over and we cannot get more snowfall. Sometimes people interpret it that way, IE warmer can't snow, however Blue Wave is just stating the next h5 setup that we will endure.

It’s been the storm tracks since 18-19 which have been main the issue. The much faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has resulted in the predominant cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. The KU BM track has been missing much of this time with a brief appearance during 20-21 areawide and more localized in January 22. But January 22 was a little too far east so areas further west missed out.  This is why we had some of the lowest snowfall totals on record for a La Niña December into January with a +PNA, -EPO, and -AO pattern this year so far. The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet didn’t relax like it did during past La Niña years with strong +PNAs and -AOs.

Now that the 500 mb vortex is relaxing east of New England the Southeast Ridge is returning. So we will lose the suppressed storm track risk and substitute it for a hugger or cutter blend risk of warmer potential at the coast. At best maybe we could put together  a smaller or maybe moderate event at some point in February. But it’s not looking like a BM KU which is necessary to get us above 20” is on the horizon. 

La Nina’s are usually frontloaded by nature. So many times the highest seasonal events would have occurred by February 1st. The big question now is if we will be able to go over 10” on the season. Still too early to tell if that will be the case before the season ends. But it’s not a bad thing to keep some hope going for such an occurrence.

Last February actually had a much better storm track pattern for snow than anything we have seen this year so far. Record breaking STJ pattern in mid-February since it was an El Niño which are backloaded by nature. But that was only a one week window and many areas missed that great event in Central NJ. But some areas did very well with a +5 departure. Much better than the -2 to -3 this month. So it comes down to storm tracks since it’s usually cold enough to snow this time of year even during winter months that average closer to 40°. It’s just if you want a 50” season near NYC the winter average needs to be near 32° with great BM KU storm tracks. But this hasn’t happened since 13-14 and 14-15.

So this month I would be more concerned with trying to get a better storm track rather than whether we get a +1 departure or something closer to +2 or +3. Since either way it will be cold enough to snow. The most important temperatures are on storm day with the right storm track.

March is a different story as we need both good storm tracks and cold enough temperatures for snow. Since even an average March in the low around NYC 40s can be marginal for snow. We had a great run of colder Marches from 2010 to 2018 with cold and great storm tracks. But the Marches in the 2020s so far have featured both too warm to snow and unfavorable stoem tracks. Even with the great -AO in March 2022.

So we are going to need a return to KU MB storm tracks next 3-4 years in order to avoid the lowest 10 running means for snowfall that we have ever seen. Absent a big shift, the current 5 year mean near 14” in NYC and surrounding sites will become a 10 year average which has never happened before. Same goes for several coastal sites. The BM KU tracks need to return in a big way in order to avoid the first decade average well under 20”. We don’t have the colder climate of the past which would give us over 20” with frequent small to moderate events which was common before the 90s. Several years didn’t need KUs to get above 20”. All our average to above average seasons since the 90s have required KU events with a 10” or 12” max somewhere between EWR and Eastern Long Island.

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I talked about it in the La Niña thread, but I’m really doubting a big -NAO/-AO blocking come back in March like some are musing on twitter. All the La Niña March’s that ended up with -NAO/-AO blocking had legit major to even historic (2018) SSWEs. There are no signs of that (major SSW) on any modeling right now through at least mid-February. I’m not really seeing a mechanism on the modeling through mid-February that would cause a big upward heat flux from the troposphere to cause such an event, there’s nothing to indicate a top down (downwelling) warming either. Guess we’ll have to see but as of today, I am very skeptical of some big flip to -AO/-NAO blocking at the tail end of next month into March without a major stratospheric warming

Unfortunately, Twitter/X is filled with bad weather information (46-day maps, 4+ week forecasts, and frequent hype/extreme maps).

At this point, any claims about the development of a big AO- regime in the extended range is nothing more than speculation. Here's the latest forecast for mid-February, noting that teleconnection forecasts toward or beyond two weeks are not skillful.

 

Moreover, during La Niña winters, the March AO outcome is almost a coin toss. However, a positive outcome is somewhat favored following a positive February outcome.

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

Wind gods must know Tuesday is recycling day in my neighborhood. What a mess.

[SnowGoose69]

General consensus on CMC/Euro and ensembles the last few cycles is positive around D10-11 but then the SER tries to come back, whether that really happens or not may depend upon the Pac jet as well as where the MJO is.  If it leans weaker I think there is a better chance something like the Op Euro D10-16 is the general pattern, if its stronger something like the Op GFS D13-16 more likely.  This winter the verification on the MJO has tended to be like 65-35 EPS vs prior years where it was about 92-8 GEFS

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said:

Wind gods must know Tuesday is recycling day in my neighborhood. What a mess.

Used to be an issue here with the smaller blue bins, but now have the 96 gallon totes which are harder to blow over or blow open

[NEG NAO]

There still is hope -lol

[vegan_edible]

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

There still is hope -lol

my g

 

dont do it to yourself

[wdrag]

After 2/3, doesn't 5H look above normal to very large positive anomaly, and consequently less chance of snow than what little is on the table the next 6 days.

I wont say this is it, but I enjoyed the cold and coming  brief cold shots through this weekend.  Wish it would have snowed more and maybe things will change, but to me it's looking like good timing via needle threading will be our best chance for a more than 4" snow into mid Feb for CP.   Am I missing something?

[Allsnow]

Buckle up Midwest 

 

 

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, wdrag said:

After 2/3, doesn't 5H look above normal to very large positive anomaly, and consequently less chance of snow than what little is on the table the next 6 days.

I wont say this is it, but I enjoyed the cold and coming  brief cold shots through this weekend.  Wish it would have snowed more and maybe things will change, but to me it's looking like good timing via needle threading will be our best chance for a more than 4" snow into mid Feb for CP.   Am I missing something?

[donsutherland1]

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Buckle up Midwest 

 

 

The Northern Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region's should do much better than the Middle Atlantic region if the forecast pattern develops.

[wdrag]

15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

wish it were believable... after we had a decent setup for this coming weekend, and even overnight still some GFS op's had snowy cycles.. but the same model ensembles said no and again the GEFS for 2/6-7 has less than an inch.

 

I cant bite... still trying to salvage a part of this 2/1-2 weekend with some snow down here, which I still think is possible-but a long shot.  (MODELS all over the place and rarely do I see a winter pattern miss by 24 hours on speed-all to do with the southern-northern stream interactions which I still dont think are resolved).
 

In the meantime, maybe colder other nation ensembles will prevail but I dont like what  I see in the GEFS.  Maybe CPC will keep the door open more than what I see. 

Hang in there... it will snow again in NYC. 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

wish it were believable... after we had a decent setup for this coming weekend, and even overnight still some GFS op's had snowy cycles.. but the same model ensembles said no and again the GEFS for 2/6-7 has less than an inch.

 

I cant bite... still trying to salvage a part of this 2/1-2 weekend with some snow down here, which I still think is possible-but a long shot.  (MODELS all over the place and rarely do I see a winter pattern miss by 24 hours on speed-all to do with the southern-northern stream interactions which I still dont think are resolved).
 

In the meantime, maybe colder other nation ensembles will prevail but I dont like what  I see in the GEFS.  Maybe CPC will keep the door open more than what I see. 

Hang in there... it will snow again in NYC. 

Southeast ridge dominated pattern which is being enhanced by the crap mjo phases. Snow is done for a while in the mid Atlantic 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Southeast ridge dominated pattern which is being enhanced by the crap mjo phases. Snow is done for a while in the mid Atlantic 

Rather take my chances with the SE ridge than suppression crap.

[jm1220]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The Northern Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region's should do much better than the Middle Atlantic region if the forecast pattern develops.

Just like NNE, it’s a matter of time before the upper Midwest finally cashes in during a Nina winter. When the SE ridge goes crazy that’s definitely the favored area for snow. 

[North and West]

It's going to become so quiet in here unless something historic happens (could be anything, historic rainfall, historic dryness, historic high temperatures, etc.)

Come back around Thanksgiving to do it all again! Greatest hits include your favorite seasonal classics such as:

It Never Snows Anymore
When It’s Cold It’s Not Actually Cold Because When I Was Young It Was Colder
Baby, It’s Warm Outside (Each and Every Christmas)
No One Knows What’s Actually Going to Happen (Except for Me)
Where You Live Is Not Part of the Metro Region

Bonus Tracks:

Insane Twitter Posts
Clinically Insane Snowfall Maps


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[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, North and West said:

Come back around Thanksgiving to do it all again! Greatest hits include your favorite seasonal classics such as:

It Never Snows Anymore
When It’s Cold It’s Not Actually Cold Because When I Was Young It Was Colder
Baby, It’s Warm Outside (Each and Every Christmas)
No One Knows What’s Actually Going to Happen (Except for Me)
Where You Live Is Not Part of the Metro Region

Bonus Tracks:

Insane Twitter Posts
Clinically Insane Snowfall Maps


.

The storm will make its own cold air

So and so says.....

This pattern reminds me of 1947

It's only Dec 9th....

Get your sleep now....

[L.I.Pete]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

The storm will make its own cold air

So and so says.....

This pattern reminds me of 1947

It's only Dec 9th

You Are The Sun Angle of My Life

[Brian5671]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rather take my chances with the SE ridge than suppression crap.

Won't matter if the cold air source is gone...

[North and West]

The storm will make its own cold air
So and so says.....
This pattern reminds me of 1947
It's only Dec 9th....
Get your sleep now....

Classics the whole family can enjoy!


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