February 2025

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The block is just too far north, would not have mattered even back then if it was that far up

This. The pv is west of Hudson Bay with a -pna 

cutter pattern 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

This. The pv is west of Hudson Bay with a -pna 

cutter pattern 

Such a strong blocking pattern in the past would've led to a much stronger PV that extended much further south. 

As Bluewave said we've never seen such a strong -AO that equaled a cutter pattern. 

[North and West]

Just goes to show how drastically our climate has changed. We'd be talking about a 93/94 mixed with 10/11 pattern right now
And idiots still think we're being "alarmist"

What does purple imply, very warm? TIA.

I don’t want to assume but I’m also not in other people’s minds.


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[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Such a strong blocking pattern in the past would've led to a much stronger PV that extended much further south. 

As Bluewave said we've never seen such a strong -AO that equaled a cutter pattern. 

This would be a cutter back in 1852 

 

[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, North and West said:

What does purple imply, very warm? TIA.

I don’t want to assume but I’m also not in other people’s minds.


.

[Violentweatherfan]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

What does purple imply, very warm? TIA.

I don’t want to assume but I’m also not in other people’s minds.


.

Cold…Barney like cold

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

this jet is ridiculous for such a strong -ao

[North and West]

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[Krs4Lfe]

Part of the problem are our expectations. Some of us see a big snowstorm being modeled one week out and get all excited even though we know it's very unlikely to happen. Any time a good pattern is being depicted we all get excited, but the truth is usually somewhere in between. And now we see the same pattern regression, similar to mid February 2024, where the pattern looked promising but quickly regressed. The clues can often be seen earlier in the winter. Only minor snows through early Feb, when do we pack it in and admit not much else is changing? And then we see a big cutter this weekend, which some will say is "just gravy before the GREAT pattern sets in."  None of the pattern this winter has been great, and it won't be. President's day storm? We've been talking about that for the past 3 winters, and each time it never happens

[nycsnow]

Free car wash according to gfs 

Image

 

 

[North and West]

Free car wash according to gfs 
Image    

Even more important is the street cleaning for the undercarriage.


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[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

This would be a cutter back in 1852 

 

The Southeast Ridge wouldn’t have linked up with a -4 to -5 -AO block in that much colder climate era. 

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Southeast Ridge wouldn’t have linked up with a -4 to -5 -AO block in that much colder climate era. 

In all fairness Don did pull stats which showed that although the frequency has increased, it has happened in the past. 

[EastonSN+]

On 2/9/2025 at 11:39 AM, donsutherland1 said:

The website came back online. During 1950-1999, there were two blocking episodes (AO -4 or below) where the ridges linked up. Since 2000, there have been 3 cases. That means that the 2000-2024 period has seen such episodes twice as frequently as during the 1950-1999 period.

 

[MJO812]

I'm actually enjoying these little snowfalls and cold. We haven't had a cold winter in years.

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I'm actually enjoying these little snowfalls and cold. We haven't had a cold winter in years.

I am too, but all that rain on Sunday will wash it all the way, and doesn't look like any snow is coming after that any time soon. 

[SnowGoose69]

The pattern honestly screams suppression post 2/17 or so but not totally sure I buy it

[winterwx21]

5 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I am too, but all that rain on Sunday will wash it all the way, and doesn't look like any snow is coming after that any time soon. 

Looks like a cold pattern for awhile after the weekend rain. Hopefully that cold air will set us up for some snow. Long range so who knows. 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

In all fairness Don did pull stats which showed that although the frequency has increased, it has happened in the past. 

-PNA -AO intervals back in the much colder era didn’t regularly feature a Southeast Ridge linking up with the -AO Greenland blocks. This is more of a recent occurrence during the 2020s. Notice back in the 1950 to 1970 era when we had frequent -PNA and -AO patterns there was usually a trough in the East. My guess is this recent alteration of that past pattern is related to our much warmer climate including land areas, SSTs, and a faster Pacific Jet. I complied 15 separate such months from that era as a comparison. 

 

1950 to 1970 colder era winter -PNA -AO patterns across 15 different months 

 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC hasn’t had a normal snowfall season since the 1990s without some portion of the area from EWR to Eastern LI experiencing a KU BM snowstorm with 10”+ totals. So this persistent cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track is working against normal snowfall seasons. In the colder era before the 90s, NYC could approach 25” inches with out BM KUs during seasons like 73-74, 76-77, 83-84, and 84-85. So these days a major KU snowstorm is the prerequisite for NYC getting near or over 25”.

The case is getting stretched a bit when a portion of the requirement for NYC to have a normal snowfall season shifts to the need for eastern LI (or part of NJ) to have a KU.  Maybe if the sample size was several hundred years, but there's plenty of room for the past few decades to be just coincidence.  I'm not questioning the data used, but I'm also not convinced that the hypothesis will test out.

[Allsnow]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Southeast Ridge wouldn’t have linked up with a -4 to -5 -AO block in that much colder climate era. 

Where was that in January? 

[Allsnow]

The pv over our heads next week, enjoy 

[qg_omega]

On 2/8/2025 at 12:06 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

On 2/8/2025 at 12:06 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

liking the trend in the confluence for the 16th. in these patterns the quality of the threats increases as the block matures 

On 2/8/2025 at 12:28 PM, qg_omega said:

When does the favorable pattern begin?

Asking for a friend @brooklynwx99

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The pattern honestly screams suppression post 2/17 or so but not totally sure I buy it

Would be funny if we had a repeat of the Southern snow as well LOL. Rain verbatim for now.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Where was that in January? 

The PV orientation if I recall right in Canada was far east and elongated which prevented it.  Also we had more of a neutral NAO and -AO.  

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Asking for a friend @brooklynwx99

considering it will snow three times in a week for some in this subforum including this weekend, I would say right around now

[EastonSN+]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The PV orientation if I recall right in Canada was far east and elongated which prevented it.  Also we had more of a neutral NAO and -AO.  

The linking of the southeast ridge has happened in the past per Don's stats I posted above. We had a trough to our East where the confluence was pushing down on the Southeast ridge and linking to the trough to the west of the southeast ridge which stopped it from linking. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Where was that in January? 

We had the -EPO +PNA which was able suppress the Southeast Ridge.

[qg_omega]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

considering it will snow three times in a week for some in this subforum including this weekend, I would say right around now

Congrats Stowe and the picnic tables at 3k

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Multiple KUs that winter with one on 12-30 and another 1-19.

 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/rsi/nesis

The 1/19/2001 event was a wide swath of 4 - 6" of snow.  It covered a lot of terrain, but few areas got more than advisory level snows.