February 2025

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wonder if the stronger more intense storms were getting due to the warmer ocean temperatures and gulf temperatures are pumping up the southeast ridge so much that it does link up with the nao. Basically the catalyst. 

I am happy to hear that it has happened in the past (under -4) so this is not completely new territory. Out of curiosity are blocking episodes of -4 or deeper increasing? 

The Southeast Ridge would link up only sporadically with weaker to moderate -AO events from the 1950s through the 1990s .The best known stronger event from that era was 1-9-98.

It could be related to the stronger Pacific Jet and the record warm Atlantic SSTs. So it’s the frequency and intensity which has been something new during the 2020s. The coming event this week will be the 2nd -4 link up in just a little over 2 years. 

The south based block in December 2020 allowed BGM to get the 40” jackpot instead of closer to NYC. It lead to the first snowfall shut out for us back in December 2022 with similar past La Niña and -AO levels. Then the March 2023 pattern followed a similar script. Now we are getting mixed precipitation events with this present  south based -AO block. The 11-12th event may be one of the few events without mixing issues in NYC. Interior spots that build up a big enough snowpack could become susceptible to flooding if one or more of the coming storms rides too far north.

2nd -4 -AO in only a little over 2 years this week linking up with the Southeast Ridge

 

-4 -AO December 2022 linking up Southeast Ridge 

2022 12 18 -4.151
2022 12 19 -3.671
2022 12 20 -3.326

Earlier era linkage during 97-98 super El Niño 

1998  1  9 -3.987
1998  1 10 -4.269

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wonder if the stronger more intense storms were getting due to the warmer ocean temperatures and gulf temperatures are pumping up the southeast ridge so much that it does link up with the nao. Basically the catalyst. 

I am happy to hear that it has happened in the past (under -4) so this is not completely new territory. Out of curiosity are blocking episodes of -4 or deeper increasing? 

The website came back online. During 1950-1999, there were two blocking episodes (AO -4 or below) where the ridges linked up. Since 2000, there have been 3 cases. That means that the 2000-2024 period has seen such episodes twice as frequently as during the 1950-1999 period.

[binbisso]

I know it's a day 10 op but what a block on the 12z cmc. If that verified we could be looking at a big dog sometime around the 20 to 22

[MJO812]

Just now, binbisso said:

I know it's a day 10 op but what a block on the 12z cmc. If that verified we could be looking at a big dog sometime around the 20 to 22

And the MJO is not even in 8 yet.

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The website came back online. During 1950-1999, there were two blocking episodes (AO -4 or below) where the ridges linked up. Since 2000, there have been 3 cases. That means that the 2000-2024 period has seen such episodes twice as frequently as during the 1950-1999 period.

Thanks for quantifying this. It is indeed interesting. I wish the sample size was much greater however negative 4 SD is rare.

[binbisso]

Ukie looks good for next weekend 

[SACRUS]

 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

Lol they threw out my 1.5 report

[Stormlover74]

Quite a bust so far today. Was supposed to be sunny and 40. Still cloudy and 33

Guess we'll clear out later

[EastonSN+]

Terrible Euro run.

At least the GFS and CMC are much better. 

 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Ohhh would you look at that another 15” of snow on the eps day 10+

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Ohhh would you look at that another 15” of snow on the eps day 10+

Awesome Central Park is closing in on the 11.5 on the snow mean from a few days ago. Already 4.1 down on the 11.5. Central Park has a legitimate shot.

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Awesome Central Park is closing in on the 11.5 on the snow mean from a few days ago. Already 4.1 down on the 11.5. Central Park has a legitimate shot.

Most of it is after day 10 

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Most of it is after day 10 

I guess it's aligning with the maturing of The blocking. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lol they threw out my 1.5 report

Maybe it was an oversight.  Can you file a complaint somewhere?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Quite a bust so far today. Was supposed to be sunny and 40. Still cloudy and 33

Guess we'll clear out later

I like it cloudy after it snows, 1) it keeps the snow from melting so quickly and 2) it keeps snow blindness at bay.

[SACRUS]

 

Made to 36 (four short of the expeted high - so far) clouds were locked in but some brightening now.  Was some son eary this morning between 8 - 9 but that faded quickly

 

[donsutherland1]

The New York City area saw its biggest snowfall of the year last night into very early this morning. In general, New York City saw 2"-4" of snow while distant northern and eastern suburbs picked up 3"-6" of snow. Accumulations included:

Bridgeport: 5.0"
Islip: 4.0"
New York City-Central Park: 3.1"
New York City-JFK Airport: 3.4"
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 3.6"
Newark: 3.0"

Another storm could affect the region late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Its exact track will be crucial to determining whether the region is merely grazed by the storm with a light accumulation or experiences a moderate to perhaps significant snowfall. Currently, the odds lean toward a 1"-3"/2"-4"-type snowfall in and around New York City, but there remains some uncertainty about the storm's track. Washington, DC could see its second 6" or above snowstorm this winter for the first time since Winter 2013-2014.

No exceptional warmth or cold is likely through at least February 14th. A generally colder outcome appears more likely than not during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +28.10 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.598 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.9° (3.0° below normal).

 

[tmagan]

Central Park hasn't had a month with above normal snowfall since January 2022. In fact, since November 2018 (the snowfall that caused so much problems with NYC traffic), Central Park has had four months with above normal snowfall.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Central Park hasn't had a month with above normal snowfall since January 2022. In fact, since November 2018 (the snowfall that caused so much problems with NYC traffic), Central Park has had four months with above normal snowfall.

It's very difficult to get above normal snowfall without a 4 inch snowstorm.  Unless there is a very minor event in October, November, April or May that is.

 

[tmagan]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

It's very difficult to get above normal snowfall without a 4 inch snowstorm.  Unless there is a very minor event in October, November, April or May that is.

 

The lack of 'benchmark' storms (although the Saturday one was at the 'benchmark') has its consequences.

[NJHurricane]

3 minutes ago, tmagan said:

The lack of 'benchmark' storms (although the Saturday one was at the 'benchmark') has its consequences.

A “benchmark” without blocking can be meh.  A perfect track ain’t gonna crack double digits accumulations in an exceptionally progressive flow.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, tmagan said:

The lack of 'benchmark' storms (although the Saturday one was at the 'benchmark') has its consequences.

DC and Baltimore seem to be fine without them.  The question is why is New York City (at a higher latitude) so dependent on them?

 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

DC and Baltimore seem to be fine without them.  The question is why is New York City (at a higher latitude) so dependent on them?

 

NYC hasn’t had a normal snowfall season since the 1990s without some portion of the area from EWR to Eastern LI experiencing a KU BM snowstorm with 10”+ totals. So this persistent cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track is working against normal snowfall seasons. In the colder era before the 90s, NYC could approach 25” inches with out BM KUs during seasons like 73-74, 76-77, 83-84, and 84-85. So these days a major KU snowstorm is the prerequisite for NYC getting near or over 25”.

[Allsnow]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC hasn’t had a normal snowfall season since the 1990s without some portion of the area from EWR to Eastern LI experiencing a KU BM snowstorm with 10”+ totals. So this persistent cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track is working against normal snowfall seasons. In the colder era before the 90s, NYC could approach 25” inches with out BM KUs during seasons like 73-74, 76-77, 83-84, and 84-85. So these days a major KU snowstorm is the prerequisite for NYC getting near or over 25”.

Dca and bwi will be well above avg without them this season 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Dca and bwi will be well above avg without them this season 

They can do well with suppressed Southern Stream tracks but we can’t.

[EastonSN+]

LOL if we want to have good snowfall seasons moving forward we have to move South. 

My childhood vacation spot Ocean City Maryland has beaten my hometown with regards to percentage of average since the snowy period ended in 2018

On a side note here we go again with cold and dry. Would be just a repeat of the last blocking episode.

On a side note that crazy snow mean of 11.5 for Central Park is going to be close. They already have 4.1 of the 11.5 and will likely to get one to two on the next storm and one to two on the follow-up storm before it changes the rain. If they get to 8.1 then the 11.5 snow mean was not crazy at all. A decent job by the ensembles.

[wishcast_hater]

NYC hasn’t had a normal snowfall season since the 1990s without some portion of the area from EWR to Eastern LI experiencing a KU BM snowstorm with 10”+ totals. So this persistent cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track is working against normal snowfall seasons. In the colder era before the 90s, NYC could approach 25” inches with out BM KUs during seasons like 73-74, 76-77, 83-84, and 84-85. So these days a major KU snowstorm is the prerequisite for NYC getting near or over 25”.

There is no “normal” just averages - depending on what years you want to count.


.

[SACRUS]

 

31 / 19 sleet still covering most areas.  Some sun today should melt portions away.  Next week (7 days) looks like 2 - 3 inches of precip will fall with Tues night - Wed night looking like the main frozen precip but its only a fraction of the total LE (1-3) .  This coming weekend 2/14 - 2/16 could see the heaviest rainfall since 12/28 and New years eve.  Looks much colder by the 17th - 21st and we'll see if the active precip pattern can produce a late Feb snow.

 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

NYC hasn’t had a normal snowfall season since the 1990s without some portion of the area from EWR to Eastern LI experiencing a KU BM snowstorm with 10”+ totals. So this persistent cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track is working against normal snowfall seasons. In the colder era before the 90s, NYC could approach 25” inches with out BM KUs during seasons like 73-74, 76-77, 83-84, and 84-85. So these days a major KU snowstorm is the prerequisite for NYC getting near or over 25”.

2000-01 winter had to be fairly close unless you count the Dec 30th as a KU.