February 2025

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Philadelphia and Boston both have a higher probability of 4" than NYC does

Yeah we don't like it when the blocking is that strong.

[EastonSN+]

23 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

No shortage of precip in the forecast, also more rains for So Cal

 

Great news for California!

[EastonSN+]

Looks pretty good hopefully not dry. Would like the PNA to be a bit further west with the strength of that block.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Both in the two epic snowfall periods.

Central Park was undermeasuring back then too, both JFK and LGA got 20 inches in the Lindsey storm.

[EastonSN+]

Week 4 of the CFS so outside it's reliability range of 3 weeks. However the blocking lasts through week 3, then we have this colder look. Then it looks like we mild up for spring!

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Central Park was undermeasuring back then too, both JFK and LGA got 20 inches in the Lindsey storm.

I honestly think they over measured as much as they under measured to be honest. Especially going way back.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The upcoming week:

Thanks as always Don. 

Not trying to pull you into a discussion, so please feel free to ignore, however I am keenly interested in the thought that the southeast ridge never linked UP with the nao since we have been monitoring the h5 pattern. Was this cataloged so we can check? Not trying to argue with Blue Wave I would just love to have statistical evidence because that is a major development if true. I would think that any intense storm cutting to the West in the development stage of blocking where the southeast ridge is present could link the two at any point but I could be wrong.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Week 4 of the CFS so outside it's reliability range of 3 weeks. However the blocking lasts through week 3, then we have this colder look. Then it looks like we mild up for spring!

so we mild up for spring at the beginning of March?

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Central Park was undermeasuring back then too, both JFK and LGA got 20 inches in the Lindsey storm.

13.8 inches at Newark during the Lindsay storm, the storm favored eastern sections

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

so we mild up for spring at the beginning of March?

Mid March. Please keep in mind the skill level past week three is suspect.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I honestly think they over measured as much as they under measured to be honest. Especially going way back.

well, going by liquid equivalent is more reliable, February 1961 was 2.75 inches of liquid and 24.1 inches of snow at JFK.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

13.8 inches at Newark during the Lindsay storm, the storm favored eastern sections

same with February 1961 when JFK had 24.1 inches I think?

[EastonSN+]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

well, going by liquid equivalent is more reliable, February 1961 was 2.75 inches of liquid and 24.1 inches of snow at JFK.

Do we have the liquid equivalent for Central Park.

[SACRUS]

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SACRUS said:

Thanks Tony, do you have one for February 1961 too?

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Do we have the liquid equivalent for Central Park.

Not offhand but I remember it was the second highest winter storm liquid equivalent in the city's history (after February 1920)-- now replaced by January 2016.

 

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

same with February 1961 when JFK had 24.1 inches I think?

Newark had 22.6 in 1961 Feb 3-4
JFK: 24.1 1961 Feb 3-4

[EastonSN+]

Crazy to think this blocking episode could be stronger than the last one. 

[EastonSN+]

Crazy that we didn't have much of an RNA the entire La Nina winter. 

[bluewave]

On 2/9/2025 at 9:55 AM, EastonSN+ said:

Not trying to argue however do we have definitive evidence that this never ever occurred before? Recorded times that is. When did we start observing h5 and the weather community? 

I searched the 500 mb database and only found weaker -AO examples before 2020 with the -AO linking up with the Southeast Ridge. A handful of less intense instances in the 1950s and late 1990s. But no strong -AO link ups with the Southeast Ridge like December 2020, December 2022, and now this week coming up.

So we are getting multiple ways to mix with rain these days around NYC which weren’t present in the past. Plus with the much stronger Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has lead to suppression when we had troughs in the Northeast this winter so far. This makes it harder to get the classic BM track since cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks dominate. 

It’s why just looking at the strong -AO this week in isolation of these other factors won’t give us the complete picture. Past instances with such strong drops to near or below -4 didn’t have these headwinds working against getting a solid BM track. So any snowfall expectations for this week based on past big -AO drops need to be filtered through the newer framework. It also raises the potential for interior locations that get a decent snowpack in the coming weeks could be open to flooding when one of these systems rides too far north.
 

[SACRUS]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Do we have the liquid equivalent for Central Park.

2.62 (Feb, 3-4 1961)

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I searched the 500 mb database and only found weaker -AO examples before 2020 with the -AO linking up with the Southeast Ridge. A handful of less intense instances in the 1950s and late 1990s. But no strong -AO link ups with the Southeast Ridge like December 2020, December 2022, and now this week coming up.

So we are getting multiple ways to mix with rain these days around NYC which weren’t present in the past. Plus with the much stronger Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet has lead to suppression when we had troughs in the Northeast this winter so far. This makes it harder to get the classic BM track since cutters, huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks dominate. 

It’s why just looking at the strong -AO this week in isolation of these other factors won’t give us the complete picture. Past instances with such strong drops to near or below -4 didn’t have these headwinds working against getting a solid BM track. So any snowfall expectations based on past big -AO drops need to be filtered through the newer framework. It also raises the potential for interior locations that get a decent snowpack in the coming weeks could be open to flooding when one of these systems rides too far north.
 

I wonder if the stronger more intense storms were getting due to the warmer ocean temperatures and gulf temperatures are pumping up the southeast ridge so much that it does link up with the nao. Basically the catalyst. 

I am happy to hear that it has happened in the past (under -4) so this is not completely new territory. Out of curiosity are blocking episodes of -4 or deeper increasing? 

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks as always Don. 

Not trying to pull you into a discussion, so please feel free to ignore, however I am keenly interested in the thought that the southeast ridge never linked UP with the nao since we have been monitoring the h5 pattern. Was this cataloged so we can check? Not trying to argue with Blue Wave I would just love to have statistical evidence because that is a major development if true. I would think that any intense storm cutting to the West in the development stage of blocking where the southeast ridge is present could link the two at any point but I could be wrong.

I am not aware of any database that has such information. Anecdotally, recently years have seen this happen more frequently than in the past, which would make sense that such ridging has grown more expansive. I will try to run data for AO -4 or below cases.

[MANDA]

Some great video of the snow in NYC last night:

https://x.com/i/status/1888449741647904796

[EastonSN+]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

I am not aware of any database that has such information. Anecdotally, recently years have seen this happen more frequently than in the past, which would make sense that such ridging has grown more expansive. I will try to run data for AO -4 or below cases.

Thanks Don I responded to Blue Wave with the question of whether the warmer Gulf temperatures and ocean temperatures in general are causing the storms to be more intense and therefore more prone to cutting which would therefore pump the southeast ridge higher to connect with the nao. Seems to happen only when the blocking starts to get established not when it's established.

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Do we have the liquid equivalent for Central Park.

2.62”

[North and West]

Mid March. Please keep in mind the skill level past week three is suspect.

Honest question: why do we keep posting these things if they seemingly change this far out anyway? Is it confirming what we want it show so we share?

I’m not smart enough to understand what they say, so I’m just thinking out loud. They seem to change run over run.


.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Honest question: why do we keep posting these things if they seemingly change this far out anyway? Is it confirming what we want it show so we share?

I’m not smart enough to understand what they say, so I’m just thinking out loud. They seem to change run over run.


.

These are tools that we have at our disposal. As long as we looked at them responsibly they can be somewhat useful. 

This is why i caveated that the skill level drops beyond week 3, which is why I only posted week 3 before the question was presented. 

When looking at the modeling and h5 patterns that are presented by meteorologists and other posters on this board one must always understand that it is the future, and we are not close to being 100% accurate with our modeling.

 

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don I responded to Blue Wave with the question of whether the warmer Gulf temperatures and ocean temperatures in general are causing the storms to be more intense and therefore more prone to cutting which would therefore pump the southeast ridge higher to connect with the nao. Seems to happen only when the blocking starts to get established not when it's established.

I wanted to start checking, but the site is again down:

[North and West]

These are tools that we have at our disposal. As long as we looked at them responsibly they can be somewhat useful. 
This is why i caveated that the skill level drops beyond week 3, which is why I only posted week 3 before the question was presented. 
When looking at the modeling and h5 patterns that are presented by meteorologists and other posters on this board one must always understand that it is the future, and we are not close to being 100% accurate with our modeling.
 

Thanks! Seems logical.


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