February 2025

[SACRUS]

 

2013 Snowstorm 

 

[SACRUS]

 

1994 first of a double whammy and several hours lost to sleet

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

NYC:

Feb 8, 1974: 6.1 inches of snowfall

Feb 8, 1994:  9 inches of snowfall /sleet

Feb 8, 2013: 11.4 inches of snowfall

Wow we were talking about Nemo without even realizing that today is its anniversary!!

2013 - A nor'easter produced heavy snowfall over the New England states. In Boston, Massachusetts, total snowfall reached 24.9 inches, the fifth-highest total ever recorded in the city. New York City officially recorded 11.4 inches of snow at Central Park, and Portland, Maine, set a record of 31.9 inches. Hamden, Connecticut, recorded the highest snowfall of the storm at 40 inches.

 

That February 1994 storm was my first encounter with thundersnow and 4 inch per hour rates for two hours!!

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 65 (2017)
NYC: 62 (2017)
LGA: 62 (2017)
JFK: 65 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: -7 (1934)
NYC: -7 (1934)
LGA: -2 (1963)
JFK: -2 (1963)

Historical:

 

1835 - A severe cold wave gripped the southeastern U.S. The mercury dipped to 8 above at Jacksonville FL, and to zero at Savannah GA. Orange trees were killed to the roots. (David Ludlum)

1936 - The temperature at Denver CO plunged to a record 30 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1956: From February 1-8, heavy snow fell over the Panhandle of Texas. Snowfall amounts include 43 inches in Vega, 24 inches in Hereford, and 14 inches in Amarillo. The storm caused 23 deaths and numerous injuries. It snowed continuously for 92 hours in some locations.

 

1968: The highest 1-day snow at the Savannah Airport in South Carolina occurs on this date when 3.6 inches of snow fell. 

1985 - Blue Canyon, CA, set a 24-hour February snowfall record by receiving 42 inches of snow from February 7th-8th.

1987 - A powerful storm produced blizzard conditions in the Great Lakes Region. Winds gusted to 86 mph at Janesville WI and Cleveland OH received 12 inches of snow. North winds of 50 to 70 mph raised the water level of southern Lake Michigan two feet, and produced waves 12 to 18 feet high, causing seven million dollars damage along the Chicago area shoreline. It was the most damage caused by shoreline flooding and erosion in the history of the city of Chicago. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Arctic air invaded the north central U.S. Hibbing MN reported a morning low of 30 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A winter storm over California produced snow from the beaches of Malibu to the desert canyons around Palm Springs, and the snow created mammoth traffic jams in the Los Angeles Basin. Sixteen cities in the western U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Marysville CA reported an all-time record low reading of 21 degrees above zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989: Mammoth traffic jams in the Los Angeles area as freak snow struck California. The snow was reported from the beaches of Malibu to the desert around Palm Springs. 

1990 - Unseasonably mild weather prevailed across the south central and eastern U.S. Twenty-two cities, including five in Michigan, reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 53 degrees at Flint MI surpassed their previous record by ten degrees, and the high of 66 degrees at Burlington IA exceeded their old record by eight degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

2009 - Snow falls at levels above elevations of 11,000 feet on the Big Island's Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea in Hawaii. The Weather Doctor

2013 - A nor'easter produced heavy snowfall over the New England states. In Boston, Massachusetts, total snowfall reached 24.9 inches, the fifth-highest total ever recorded in the city. New York City officially recorded 11.4 inches of snow at Central Park, and Portland, Maine, set a record of 31.9 inches. Hamden, Connecticut, recorded the highest snowfall of the storm at 40 inches.

This has to be even more rare than gulf coast snow!!

1989 - A winter storm over California produced snow from the beaches of Malibu to the desert canyons around Palm Springs, and the snow created mammoth traffic jams in the Los Angeles Basin. Sixteen cities in the western U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Marysville CA reported an all-time record low reading of 21 degrees above zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989: Mammoth traffic jams in the Los Angeles area as freak snow struck California. The snow was reported from the beaches of Malibu to the desert around Palm Springs. 

[MJO812]

After tonight's snow we might have to wait until after mid month for a much more favorable pattern with the MJO going into 8, NAO and AO becoming more favorable.

[qg_omega]

On 2/7/2025 at 6:19 AM, qg_omega said:

Best chance is Saturday night then who knows, could easily see next storm miss to south and then bunch of cutters

 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

After tonight's snow we might have to wait until after mid month for a much more favorable pattern with the MJO going into 8, NAO and AO becoming more favorable.

Hummm 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

After tonight's snow we might have to wait until after mid month for a much more favorable pattern with the MJO going into 8, NAO and AO becoming more favorable.

2 inches tonight and then another 2 inches Tuesday night?

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe this is why we're seeing the modeling vary so much from run to run, it doesn't know how to properly handle the faster northern stream.  It originates from a data sparse region anyway.

The first example of this cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm track became evident during the 18-19 DJF period when we only had a single snow squall at the end of January even with the cold pattern in January.  All our snow that year was one SWFE in November and a brief period in early March where areas further north did OK. Then this was followed by disappointing 19-20 season. The overpowering Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet began to become a big factor.

While the BM KU tracks made a return for 20-21, even in that season there were some notable differences. The December event tracked very close to ACY so BGM got the 40” jackpot. Then the damaging flood cutter on Christmas. The early February event was the only traditional BM KU of this decade where points west to NYC and LI cashed in together. The BM tracks in 2022 were shifted further east so Suffolk did great and areas further west were left out. Of the best results.

December 2022 featured the best December AO blocking since 2010 but we didn’t get another Boxing Day Blizzard with 30” around Newark. The hostile Pacific ran the table and even the MJO 8 and -AO pattern in March couldn’t produce. Then in 23-24 we got the one week window in February with the record STJ and the Northern Stream briefly relaxing. Mostly Central Jersey was favored for the best results.

Then we had the great -EPO and +PNA from this December into January being joined by the -AO and colder than average temperatures. Very little snowfall to show for it over those two months vs past La Niña mismatch with 10-20”+ in NYC for similar past patterns.  One of the most extreme Southern Stream suppression events of all-time with the Gulf Coast getting the record snows.

Now this February we have been getting hugger tracks with front end thumps and then mixed precipitation closer to the coast. So while the retrogression pattern following the big -AO block forecast for mid-February has produced KU BM tracks in the past, it’s very uncertain if the storm track will cooperate this time around. Hopefully, we can out something together during that retrogression interval around or after the 20th. 

While it’s always possible we could see a better March this year than the last 5, I wouldn’t want to have to rely on March if this pattern continues to underperform. Not seeing the big SSW signal like in 2018 and strat coupling which lead to the 30” March on LI and locked in -AO for the whole month. Since it looks like the -AO will start weakening later in February as it retrogrades back into +PNA.

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

After tonight's snow we might have to wait until after mid month for a much more favorable pattern with the MJO going into 8, NAO and AO becoming more favorable.

This is a blue balls winter so far.

[EastonSN+]

4 hours ago, Yanksfan said:

 Everybody needs to chill. Any individual OP run can’t handle all the little nuances from the bombardment of waves that it’s trying to decipher. Look at the GFS for instance. It’s flip flopping like a fish from run to run.  We need to focus on tonight only and forget about a storm that is days away. Once this upcoming storm passes and hopefully produces, then we can turn our attention to the next potential  event.

I like to multi task 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

i wonder if the expanded hadley cell is one of the reasons we have a such a strong northern stream worldwide 

Yeah Tip in the New England forum has been on top of/ focused on the Hadley cell for the past handful of years.

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

That's an impressive amplification and phase 8 and overall correction in such a short time.

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This time around we are still contending with the much faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet since 18-19. That winter had the great STJ to go with KB block retrograde back across the North Pole. So we are still dealing with the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks which make 30” snowstorms in NYC harder to come by.

The fast pac jet may have staying power unfortunately, and maybe part of the reason we had the same cutter suppressed hugger pattern from 1970 through 1999 for the most part. Perhaps that is the standard background State and 1955 through 1960 and 2000 through 2018 are the anomalies.

[EastonSN+]

Some points. 

March changes every decade it seems. Hardly ever snowed 2000 through 2010. Snowed a lot 2011 to 2020. 2021 till now it does not snow much so we are in this decade pattern therefore not set in stone, I would hedge against a snowy March have to wait till 2030 LOL. 1990 through 1999 had a lot of March events too. See the pattern. 

On the topic of KUs, I have to re stress that these are uncommon. If you get the Kocin book you will see a large amount of KU events 1955 through 1960, then a dearth of them for our area from 1970 through 1999. Just because we have a strong block does not guarantee a KU event and more often than not will fail just like most of the blocks of the past have outside of the two snowy periods. 

I don't know if there are statistics going back that far, however I bet the fail rate for strong blocking from 1970 through 1999 is high. Had a lot of suppressed storms then just like we had record snows on the Gulf Coast this year. 

 

[brooklynwx99]

liking the trend in the confluence for the 16th. in these patterns the quality of the threats increases as the block matures 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The fast pac jet may have staying power unfortunately, and maybe part of the reason we had the same cutter suppressed hugger pattern from 1970 through 1999 for the most part. Perhaps that is the standard background State and 1955 through 1960 and 2000 through 2018 are the anomalies.

I think you mean 1955 through 1970 not 1955 through 1960

[qg_omega]

21 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

liking the trend in the confluence for the 16th. in these patterns the quality of the threats increases as the block matures 

When does the favorable pattern begin?

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Some points. 

March changes every decade it seems. Hardly ever snowed 2000 through 2010. Snowed a lot 2011 to 2020. 2021 till now it does not snow much so we are in this decade pattern therefore not set in stone, I would hedge against a snowy March have to wait till 2030 LOL. 1990 through 1999 had a lot of March events too. See the pattern. 

On the topic of KUs, I have to re stress that these are uncommon. If you get the Kocin book you will see a large amount of KU events 1955 through 1960, then a dearth of them for our area from 1970 through 1999. Just because we have a strong block does not guarantee a KU event and more often than not will fail just like most of the blocks of the past have outside of the two snowy periods. 

I don't know if there are statistics going back that far, however I bet the fail rate for strong blocking from 1970 through 1999 is high. Had a lot of suppressed storms then just like we had record snows on the Gulf Coast this year. 

 

1955 through 1970 was the earlier period.

It would be interesting to go even further back in history to see if we had an earlier such better in the 1930s and 1940s.

[EastonSN+]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1955 through 1970 was the earlier period.

It would be interesting to go even further back in history to see if we had an earlier such better in the 1930s and 1940s.

Thanks yeah I meant 1955 through 1969. 

 

[EastonSN+]

I like the numbers that go off the chart. 

Again suppression would be the concern.

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

The fast pac jet may have staying power unfortunately, and maybe part of the reason we had the same cutter suppressed hugger pattern from 1970 through 1999 for the most part. Perhaps that is the standard background State and 1955 through 1960 and 2000 through 2018 are the anomalies.

This is a much different storm track pattern than was the case from 1970 through 1999. Places like NYC would usually average somewhere in the 19” to 30” for seasonal snowfall with just a few years above and below that range. During the 2020s NYC has been averaging closer to 14” to 15”. So we need a big return to benchmark  KU snowstorms ASAP next 3-4 seasons  for NYC to avoid having a permanent shift under 20”. But the good news so far is that even with the less snowy seasons, NYC has still avoided getting close to shut out and an under 1” season. 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is a much different storm track pattern than was the case from 1970 through 1999. Places like NYC would usually average somewhere in the 19” to 30” for seasonal snowfall with just a few years above and below that range. During the 2020s NYC has been averaging closer to 14” to 15”. So we need a big return to benchmark  KU snowstorms ASAP next 3-4 seasons  for NYC to avoid having a permanent shift under 20”. But the good news so far is that even with the less snowy seasons, NYC has still avoided getting close to shut out and an under 1” season. 

Going under 20" is expected though, we were close during the 70s and 80s (didn't we average 19 inches in that decade)?  Looking at the JFK 30 year average 1951-1980 and 1961-90 (the ones I grew up with), JFK was only barely over 20"...... around 21.6 inches for the 30 year average if I remember correctly.

 

[donsutherland1]

Snow and/or sleet will move into Newark and then New York City between 6:30 pm and 8:00 pm. The snow will mix with and then change to sleet, freezing rain, and the rain overnight. Staten Island, Queens, and Brooklyn will likely pick up 1"-3" of snow. Manhattan, Bronx, and New York City's nearby northern suburbs will likely see 2"-4" of snow. Areas well to the north and west of New York City will pick up 4"-8" with a few locally higher amounts.

Another storm could affect the region during the middle of next week. Its exact track will be crucial to determining whether the region is merely grazed by the storm with a light accumulation or experiences a moderate to perhaps significant snowfall. Currently, the former scenario appears to be the more likely one.

No exceptional warmth or cold is likely through at least February 14th. A generally colder outcome appears more likely than not during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal.

The AO has now gone negative. However, the NAO is likely to remain at +1.000 or above through the first 10 days of February. Since 1950, just 1 of 18 (6%) of storms with an NAO of +0.900 or above saw 6" or more snow in New York City. That storm occurred with an AO of -1.769.  As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will likely be limited through the first 10 days of February. The low probability of a 6" or above snowstorm does not mean that there cannot be snowfall or that there won't be snowfall. Smaller events are possible, as occurred on February 2 and February 6.

After February 10th, there could be a window of opportunity for a larger event, possibly 6" or more. The forecast pattern has some similarities with that February 8-9, 1994 when New York City picked up 9.0" of snow, but there are differences. For example, the air mass during 1994 was substantially colder than the one that is forecast for next week. The exact synoptic details will be crucial to the outcome.

In general, patterns provide insight into potential for a broad area e.g., the Middle Atlantic region. They do not provide details for specific locations within the region. Synoptic details determine whether the potential is realized and how specific locations are impacted.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +27.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.126 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.9° (3.0° below normal).

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is a much different storm track pattern than was the case from 1970 through 1999. Places like NYC would usually average somewhere in the 19” to 30” for seasonal snowfall with just a few years above and below that range. During the 2020s NYC has been averaging closer to 14” to 15”. So we need a big return to benchmark  KU snowstorms ASAP next 3-4 seasons  for NYC to avoid having a permanent shift under 20”. But the good news so far is that even with the less snowy seasons, NYC has still avoided getting close to shut out and an under 1” season. 

14 of the 30 seasons were under 19 inches. 

I do see that only 3 winters were under 10, while we have seen 3 already since 2018. 

That being said somehow the Delmarva is reaping the benefits since 2018. So it's funny that it's better to be north south east of West of our area.

I do believe at some point we will break out of this just don't know when. 

 

[EastonSN+]

32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Snow and/or sleet will move into Newark and then New York City between 6:30 pm and 8:00 pm. The snow will mix with and then change to sleet, freezing rain, and the rain overnight. Staten Island, Queens, and Brooklyn will likely pick up 1"-3" of snow. Manhattan, Bronx, and New York City's nearby northern suburbs will likely see 2"-4" of snow. Areas well to the north and west of New York City will pick up 4"-8" with a few locally higher amounts.

Another storm could affect the region during the middle of next week. Its exact track will be crucial to determining whether the region is merely grazed by the storm with a light accumulation or experiences a moderate to perhaps significant snowfall. Currently, the former scenario appears to be the more likely one.

No exceptional warmth or cold is likely through at least February 14th. A generally colder outcome appears more likely than not during the second half of February. Precipitation will likely be near or somewhat above normal.

The AO has now gone negative. However, the NAO is likely to remain at +1.000 or above through the first 10 days of February. Since 1950, just 1 of 18 (6%) of storms with an NAO of +0.900 or above saw 6" or more snow in New York City. That storm occurred with an AO of -1.769.  As a result, prospects for a 6" or above snowstorm in the New York City area will likely be limited through the first 10 days of February. The low probability of a 6" or above snowstorm does not mean that there cannot be snowfall or that there won't be snowfall. Smaller events are possible, as occurred on February 2 and February 6.

After February 10th, there could be a window of opportunity for a larger event, possibly 6" or more. The forecast pattern has some similarities with that February 8-9, 1994 when New York City picked up 9.0" of snow, but there are differences. For example, the air mass during 1994 was substantially colder than the one that is forecast for next week. The exact synoptic details will be crucial to the outcome.

In general, patterns provide insight into potential for a broad area e.g., the Middle Atlantic region. They do not provide details for specific locations within the region. Synoptic details determine whether the potential is realized and how specific locations are impacted.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.13°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions are underway and will likely persist into the start of spring.

The SOI was +27.33 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.126 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.9° (3.0° below normal).

 

Hey Don it looks like GEFS is starting to show the -NAO that's the EPS has. Hopefully this helps us.

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

14 of the 30 seasons were under 19 inches. 

I do see that only 3 winters were under 10, while we have seen 3 already since 2018. 

That being said somehow the Delmarva is reaping the benefits since 2018. So it's funny that it's better to be north south east of West of our area.

I do believe at some point we will break out of this just don't know when. 

 

this is a warmer and drier version of 1993-94

 

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

this is a warmer and drier version of 1993-94

 

Eh a little different H5.

What's hilarious is New Orleans and Destin Florida are doing better this year!

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey Don it looks like GEFS is starting to show the -NAO that's the EPS has. Hopefully this helps us.

Yes. We’ll have to see how things play out. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. We’ll have to see how things play out. 

I still have to believe that we failed a lot with blocking patterns in that horrible 30-year period that I keep mentioning. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I still have to believe that we failed a lot with blocking patterns in that horrible 30-year period that I keep mentioning. 

Following the current storm is so much more fun than following model simulations lol.